Christ like MMA betting

[gabe]

Was waiting for line on Stinson..now I just need it to open on Dimes.

I wasn't gonna touch that one, but I'll tail ya...

[v1y]

stinson impressed big against saffiedine... but i still don't think he can beat mein.

[gabe]

I think it's a coin-flip, so might as well go with the dog, eh?

[Jesus Christ]

I think it's a coin-flip, so might as well go with the dog, eh?

My thoughts exactly...this is def a 50/50 fight in my eyes..Stinson is better than most people think...if I can +175 on that I'll take it all day.

[Jesus Christ]

YTD 41-39-2 +$7,206.59

I'll have other plays up soon but gonna post this one now.

I had this as a pick em fight and have been waiting out the books cause I figured they would lean towards Mein.

These guys are strikingly similar..good boxing, adequate grappling, and both know how to use their range as southpaws..however I feel that Stinson has an edge in creativity in his striking..we saw in the Mein/Cyborg fight that Mein can get kind of flat in a pure kickboxing match..granted he finished Cyborg in awesome style in the third with some killer elbows but before that he seemed content to sit back and try to counter strike with limited success...If Mein has success in this fight it will come via a takedown heavy gameplan but I just don't see it playing out like that...Mein is not overrated by any means I just feel that Stinson can match Mein strike for strike and finish him via mid round TKO....I'll say Tyler Stinson wins via TKO(punches) Round 2

[Jesus Christ]

YTD 41-39-2 +$7,206.59

I'll have other plays up soon but gonna post this one now.

I had this as a pick em fight and have been waiting out the books cause I figured they would lean towards Mein.

These guys are strikingly similar..good boxing, adequate grappling, and both know how to use their range as southpaws..however I feel that Stinson has an edge in creativity in his striking..we saw in the Mein/Cyborg fight that Mein can get kind of flat in a pure kickboxing match..granted he finished Cyborg in awesome style in the third with some killer elbows but before that he seemed content to sit back and try to counter strike with limited success...If Mein has success in this fight it will come via a takedown heavy gameplan but I just don't see it playing out like that...Mein is not overrated by any means I just feel that Stinson can match Mein strike for strike and finish him via mid round TKO....I'll say Tyler Stinson wins via TKO(punches) Round 2

Adding the rest of the plays now.

First play on the card will be on Joe Duarte..I'm just not sold on Ryan Couture as a fighter yet..he is gonna be out gunned on the feet and when it hits the mat Duarte will be able to more than hold his own..I think this will be fun fight where there are a lot of slick transitions on the ground and some God awful kickboxing but in the end I think Duarte will get his hand raised by having a more effective offensive attack...I'll say Joe Duarte wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Second play will be on Lorenz Larkin..this is just the match up that Lawler has traditionally stuggled with...anyone that can maintain distance and kickbox from the outside will always give the power puncher Lawler trouble..let's not forget we are only a few fights removed from Robbie losing a kickbox heavy match to Sobral...I don't think this fight is going to be close at all..I'll say Lorenz Larkin wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)





Good Luck Everyone

[illmatick]

Liking those last two. Duarte's line moved right where I was hoping after the weigh-ins

[gabe]

Hm, I was feeling Couture... Glad you're on Larkin, that's my fav play on the card.

[gabe]

#91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-800) #4360 - Marin Cilic ML (-200)

$48.00

$100.50

#91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-760) #4360 - Marin Cilic ML (-190) #4649 - Serena Williams ML (-1500)

$42.00

$99.86

#91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #91252 - Nate Marquardt ML (-135) #91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120) #91351 - Keith Jardine ML (+170) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-760) #4360 - Marin Cilic ML (-190) #4649 - Serena Williams ML (-1500)

$36.00

$714.07

just a few of my plays

i'm not too confident in rockhold and marquardt, but i've got a few parlays from wednesday with them left in it...

[gabe]

#91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120)

$600.00

$500.00

[gabe]

5 Team - Parlay #91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #91252 - Nate Marquardt ML (-135) #91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120) #91351 - Keith Jardine ML (+170) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-900)	$61.00	$705.52
4 Team - Parlay #91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120) #91351 - Keith Jardine ML (+170) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-900)	$32.00	$199.00
#91351 - Keith Jardine ML (+170)	$177.00	$300.90

If I go 4 for 4 on the main card, I'll be thrilled.

[Jesus Christ]

Looks good my friend...both of us big on Larkin so you know we got this.

[Mercersux]

Really Larkin? I dunno i haven't really done much research but that fight should be a really close contest. Lawler is a scrappy vet high fight IQ. I know Lawler has the tendency to keep the fight upright but he does have the grappling backround to really ground the fight and likely dominate. Just look at the Larkin-Lawal match. Haven't made a play yet so GL guys but right now i might lean slightly towards Lawler.

[gabe]

Just cashed:

#964 - Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-200) #966 - San Francisco Giants ML (-210) #979 - Texas Rangers ML (-140)

$36.00

$100.65

Pending:

8 Team - Parlay #91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #91252 - Nate Marquardt ML (-140) #4056 - Juan Monaco ML (-1200) #4149 - David Ferrer ML (-740) #4637 - Dominika Cibulkova ML (-1200) #4648 - Marion Bartoli ML (-3000) #4549 - Sara Errani ML (-1200) #4649 - Serena Williams ML (-1200)	$76.00	$200.27
#90002 - Chris Weidman ML (-160) #90052 - James Te Huna ML (-400) #91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #91252 - Nate Marquardt ML (-120)	$40.00	$155.51

#964 - Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-200) #979 - Texas Rangers ML (-150) #91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #91252 - Nate Marquardt ML (-135) #91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-760) #4360 - Marin Cilic ML (-190) #4649 - Serena Williams ML (-1500)

$27.00

$493.88

#964 - Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-200) #979 - Texas Rangers ML (-150) #4157 - David Ferrer ML (-760) #4360 - Marin Cilic ML (-190) #4649 - Serena Williams ML (-1500)	$56.00	$201.92

#964 - Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-200) #91202 - Luke Rockhold ML (-320) #4549 - Sara Errani ML (-2000) #4649 - Serena Williams ML (-1500)

$83.00

$100.01

[adrenalinerush]

Maybe I've never tried making UFC bets the night before so I never noticed, will Bovada post more fights the day of the fight? They only have two of the fights on the card on the board right now. I think they typically have all fights on the card eventually, but maybe not until tomorrow.

[Jesus Christ]

Maybe I've never tried making UFC bets the night before so I never noticed, will Bovada post more fights the day of the fight? They only have two of the fights on the card on the board right now. I think they typically have all fights on the card eventually, but maybe not until tomorrow.

Yea Bovada will have all the fights on the card up tomorrow...they're solid when it comes to MMA.

[BluntTrauma]

Glad a couple of you guys are on Larkin too. Just listened to Jordan Breen say how Lawler was going to destroy him and I started to wonder if I was missing something. As mentioned earlier, Lawler has trouble letting his hands go and got outpointed on the feet by Babalu not too long ago. I think Robbie's gonna have a hell of a time pinning Larkin down or countering him before he's out of range

[Educ8d Degener8]

Really Larkin? I dunno i haven't really done much research but that fight should be a really close contest. Lawler is a scrappy vet high fight IQ. I know Lawler has the tendency to keep the fight upright but he does have the grappling backround to really ground the fight and likely dominate. Just look at the Larkin-Lawal match. Haven't made a play yet so GL guys but right now i might lean slightly towards Lawler.

As a contrarian argument, I'd suggest the Lawler v Manhoef fight... (yes, Lawler DID pull the hail mary KO win in that fight admittedly)... but up to that point, Lawler was getting tore up on the feet, including sick leg kicks which opened Manhoef up to the takedown... and if there was EVER a fish out of water on the ground that one would want to take to the mat immediately, it's Melvin Manhoef. Yet Lawler made no such attempt.

Point is - I honestly can't remember the last time Lawler used his wrestling in an offensive manner. Seriously, I can't remember the last time he so much as presented a takedown attempt. Now defensively, yes, his wrestling background manifests itself into above average TDD and sprawl, though I was surprised Amagov managed to take him down early... but Lawler posted up rather quickly iirc.

Agree on Lawler's paper wrestling pedigree, but recent history suggests that he doesn't lean on it when presented with an opportune opponent. Whether or not he continues with that pattern of game-planning remains to be seen; at this point, Lawler seems like a guy content on just throwing haymakers looking for a highlight reel KO.

Disclaimer: I'm small on Larkin. If I knew Lawler would game-plan the f*ck up and rely on an offensive wrestling base, I would admittedly be swayed the other way. But at this point in his career, Lawler seems like an old dog opposed to trying new (what should be obvious) tricks.

[Mercersux]

As a contrarian argument, I'd suggest the Lawler v Manhoef fight... (yes, Lawler DID pull the hail mary KO win in that fight admittedly)... but up to that point, Lawler was getting tore up on the feet, including sick leg kicks which opened Manhoef up to the takedown... and if there was EVER a fish out of water on the ground that one would want to take to the mat immediately, it's Melvin Manhoef. Yet Lawler made no such attempt.

Point is - I honestly can't remember the last time Lawler used his wrestling in an offensive manner. Seriously, I can't remember the last time he so much as presented a takedown attempt. Now defensively, yes, his wrestling background manifests itself into above average TDD and sprawl, though I was surprised Amagov managed to take him down early... but Lawler posted up rather quickly iirc.

Agree on Lawler's paper wrestling pedigree, but recent history suggests that he doesn't lean on it when presented with an opportune opponent. Whether or not he continues with that pattern of game-planning remains to be seen; at this point, Lawler seems like a guy content on just throwing haymakers looking for a highlight reel KO.

Disclaimer: I'm small on Larkin. If I knew Lawler would game-plan the f*ck up and rely on an offensive wrestling base, I would admittedly be swayed the other way. But at this point in his career, Lawler seems like an old dog opposed to trying new (what should be obvious) tricks.

Absolutely agree. I also can't remember the time Lawler has been grapple first. Blunt also pointed out the Babalu fight which i totally forgot about. Only reason i may give him a pass on that fight is because it was a catchweight and Babalu was a little bit bigger. Regardless, I do like Larkin alot as a fighter and up until the King mo fight has looked great, but would honestly anyone say that this isn't a large step up in competition from his previous twelve fights? Again, not definitive as to which way im going if at all but i tend to believe this fight is more of a coin flip than others. Especially Gabe, who has alot of his night tied to Larkin so apparently he must see something i don't.

[Vaughany]

Really Larkin? I dunno i haven't really done much research but that fight should be a really close contest. Lawler is a scrappy vet high fight IQ. I know Lawler has the tendency to keep the fight upright but he does have the grappling backround to really ground the fight and likely dominate. Just look at the Larkin-Lawal match. Haven't made a play yet so GL guys but right now i might lean slightly towards Lawler.

Lawler isnt near the level of wrestler that Mo is and I don't recall Lawler using his wrestling in a long time? (Can anybody correct me on tht?) He got taken down by AMagov briefly and Kennedy won before tht through his wrestling

[Vaughany]

Oh only jus read the posts above from Edu (which pretty much says same thing!)

[gabe]

Absolutely agree. I also can't remember the time Lawler has been grapple first. Blunt also pointed out the Babalu fight which i totally forgot about. Only reason i may give him a pass on that fight is because it was a catchweight and Babalu was a little bit bigger. Regardless, I do like Larkin alot as a fighter and up until the King mo fight has looked great, but would honestly anyone say that this isn't a large step up in competition from his previous twelve fights? Again, not definitive as to which way im going if at all but i tend to believe this fight is more of a coin flip than others. Especially Gabe, who has alot of his night tied to Larkin so apparently he must see something i don't.

I expected him to be a much bigger favorite, so I had to max bet it at -120. Let's hope it's a case of me taking advantage of a gift line (a la Chris Weidman on Wed.) and not a case of me looking like a fool.

I went big against Lawlor with Amagov... I hope it's not a repeat of me getting screwed. Amagov could have destroyed him, there was def something up with that fight... Amagov clearly didn't wanna win. First tried to get DQ'd then pretended to be KO'd... weird shit...

[Vaughany]

I'd add tht Lawler has also has periods wer he gets very passive and should make it easier for Larkin to pick him apart with his superior footwork and more technical striking. Larkin has been facing guys who are much bigger than him...Villante was clearly bigger, a roide dup Rossborough looked like a HW in comparison, and Kingo Mo was bigger and also on drostanolone. I'd be really surprised if Lawler can bully Larkin in this one like many probably expect he can and might do. Only way I see Lawler winning this is from a hailmary KO from a big hook or flying knee again or if the weight-cut has a really big impact on Larkin's condition. I did read yesterday tho tht when Larkin started his camp he was losing weight quicker than expected so actually had to start eating more so that he didnt get too light too early. I'll try and find the interview

[PunisherIND]

Maybe I've never tried making UFC bets the night before so I never noticed, will Bovada post more fights the day of the fight? They only have two of the fights on the card on the board right now. I think they typically have all fights on the card eventually, but maybe not until tomorrow.

bovada has the lines up now

[NunyaBidness]

assuming the bookie/casino is a participant, poker is clearly a zero sum game, as are all gambling transactions.

Assuming entropy is a participant, predator/prey transactions are clearly zero sum as well.

[NunyaBidness]

Are you seriously be smug about a tiny 5% rake in poker or betting exchange? Get a life. Betting exchanges & poker are zero sum games.

100 - 95 = 0?

There are loads of rakeback grinders out there making a living on 30% rakeback of that 5%, so I'd say 5% isn't very tiny at all. That 5% can add up to thousands of dollars per day.

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

[Vaughany]

100 - 95 = 0?

There are loads of rakeback grinders out there making a living on 30% rakeback of that 5%, so I'd say 5% isn't very tiny at all. That 5% can add up to thousands of dollars per day.

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

Your forgetting tht Wannabet is a big timer tho...thousands per day is nothing to him

[Thor4140]

Lawler is a scrappy vet high fight IQ. .

really? When did u notice this? I sure never did.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Some people just can't understand shit like the Steve Nash Equinox.

[PunisherIND]

Guys, lets keep the discussion on a cerebral level.

:: puts on rubber frank castle mask::

[Vaughany]

hahaha

[Khiaao]

Adding the rest of the plays now.

First play on the card will be on Joe Duarte..I'm just not sold on Ryan Couture as a fighter yet..he is gonna be out gunned on the feet and when it hits the mat Duarte will be able to more than hold his own..I think this will be fun fight where there are a lot of slick transitions on the ground and some God awful kickboxing but in the end I think Duarte will get his hand raised by having a more effective offensive attack...I'll say Joe Duarte wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Second play will be on Lorenz Larkin..this is just the match up that Lawler has traditionally stuggled with...anyone that can maintain distance and kickbox from the outside will always give the power puncher Lawler trouble..let's not forget we are only a few fights removed from Robbie losing a kickbox heavy match to Sobral...I don't think this fight is going to be close at all..I'll say Lorenz Larkin wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)





Good Luck Everyone

Cool im in

985749-1

7/14/12 11:11am

$375.00

$300.00

Pending

7/14/12 10:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Lorenz Larkin -125* <small>vs</small> Robbie Lawler

[v1y]

k... i'm on larkin too 240 to win 200.

[Vaughany]

ha looks like we're all on the Monsoon!

[DirtyX]

#91301 - Lorenz Larkin ML (-120)

$600.00

$500.00

Well, Well... Look who decided to post their plays before the fight card. I am very proud of you cousin. Respect.

I am on Larkin too. I capped him at at -200 / -225 range so I had to go big, GL.

Ticket#:71767858 Jul 14 10:00 PM

INTERNET / -1

Jul 14 12:14 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [24459] L LARKIN -120 (L LARKIN vrs R LAWLER)

360 / 300