Christ like MMA betting

[Jesus Christ]

JC kudos for going 3-1 on a card that had all 11 favourites win (based on closing odds), considering you tend to bet 'dogs. Excellent work

Weidman is the real deal. Since Sakara I've been riding that gravy train until he gets UFC gold... Loved cashing that Inside The Distance prop at +415 (Jesus Christ that was juicy +EV!!) plus had a good-sized straight bet too.

Hey, are you going to post Strikeforce plays for this weekend?

Yea I do love my dogs but just didn't see many good ones this card.

That's an awesome hit there on +415..I can honestly say I didn't see a KO finish coming.

Ohhh yea I'll be playing Strikeforce on Saturday..I'm gonna have one rather large play if a line opens the way I hope it does.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Yea I do love my dogs but just didn't see many good ones this card.

That's an awesome hit there on +415..I can honestly say I didn't see a KO finish coming.

Ohhh yea I'll be playing Strikeforce on Saturday..I'm gonna have one rather large play if a line opens the way I hope it does.

TBH initially I was thinking more along the lines of a sub than a TKO but then I considered Munoz being rocked by non-KO artists like Grove, Catone, Maia, etc. and I watched tape on Weidman drop a legit striker in Urijah Hall with a left hook before finishing him with GnP so I felt pretty good about Weidman being able to smash Munoz on the feet given the opportunity.

Looking forwards to your SF plays JC. Cheers

[Vaughany]

Great job Jesus Christ Superstar

[AdamB]

I guess the Caceres line moved a fair bit closer to the event? I bet him earlier in the day (about 12:00 GMT) and got him at +120. I was a little confused that people were talking about every favourite winning.

[GigaOuts]

JC kudos for going 3-1 on a card that had all 11 favourites win (based on closing odds), considering you tend to bet 'dogs. Excellent work

Weidman is the real deal. Since Sakara I've been riding that gravy train until he gets UFC gold... Loved cashing that Inside The Distance prop at +415 (Jesus Christ that was juicy +EV!!) plus had a good-sized straight bet too.

Hey, are you going to post Strikeforce plays for this weekend?

I hope that is not a sign that mma wagering is getting harder. If oddmaker starting to open with perfect line we are in trouble, less +EV play equal less $$$ to be made. When I first started mma wagering, the first person I follow is MR219 over at Cover forum he seem to have good picks but this year he is fading hard and downed 73units (not sure how much is that). Another person I believe is solid is Libert1ne but haven't heard from him for awhile, and I am also getting kill down 4.5g. My last biggest lost is DHK for $850, the guy accidentally step on a banana peel...lol. I hope we are running bad not mma wager getting harder.

I came from poker, been making a living for 7yr. I am 10x better than I first started nl but the irony is I am making 10x less. When Phil Ivey said he will start a poker training site to help everybody make $$$, I lol. How can everybody making $$$ in a zero sum game minus rake...lots of rake. In a long run I am not sure is Jesus Christ and Vaughany and other great poster shooting themselves on the foot by educating casual gambler. There is no 1 dog came thru today, even at the closing line Alex Caceres is the slide favor meaning the mma wagering community (gambler) is getting smarter, they know what they doing. And frankly this scare me because juicy line will come less and less seldom once this market mature like poker.

[PunisherIND]

I guess the Caceres line moved a fair bit closer to the event? I bet him earlier in the day (about 12:00 GMT) and got him at +120. I was a little confused that people were talking about every favourite winning.

yes, caceres closed as a slight favorite.

[jakejd82]

really like marquardt -115 on saturday, I cant see woodley controling nate the great for 15 minutes. Any thoughts on that fight ?

[bjpenn85]

to win on the judges scorecard you mean? This is a 5 rounder

[jakejd82]

to win on the judges scorecard you mean? This is a 5 rounder

Yes 25 mins... Sorry. Just think Nate has a lot more ways to win. Not very impressed with Woolley his last couple of fights. He had a tough time controlling Paul Daley who is an AWFUL grappler. Just my two cents, but really looking forward to the card. Just saw Rousey is a 6-1 fav over Kaufman for the next SF card.That's crazy

[bjpenn85]

but you shoudnt be to impressed with marquart either. Lost against okami and chael. both very good fighters, but woodley is good enough IMO to make this close. Marquart also had a pretty close fight against dan miller.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I hope that is not a sign that mma wagering is getting harder. If oddmaker starting to open with perfect line we are in trouble, less +EV play equal less $$$ to be made. When I first started mma wagering, the first person I follow is MR219 over at Cover forum he seem to have good picks but this year he is fading hard and downed 73units (not sure how much is that). Another person I believe is solid is Libert1ne but haven't heard from him for awhile, and I am also getting kill down 4.5g. My last biggest lost is DHK for $850, the guy accidentally step on a banana peel...lol. I hope we are running bad not mma wager getting harder.

I came from poker, been making a living for 7yr. I am 10x better than I first started nl but the irony is I am making 10x less. When Phil Ivey said he will start a poker training site to help everybody make $$$, I lol. How can everybody making $$$ in a zero sum game minus rake...lots of rake. In a long run I am not sure is Jesus Christ and Vaughany and other great poster shooting themselves on the foot by educating casual gambler. There is no 1 dog came thru today, even at the closing line Alex Caceres is the slide favor meaning the mma wagering community (gambler) is getting smarter, they know what they doing. And frankly this scare me because juicy line will come less and less seldom once this market mature like poker.

I don't think last night was a convincing sign that Oddsmakers are getting better.

If anything it was a sign that the public did an excellent job overall. They recognized that Caceres had +EV at even slight dog odds whereas all of the other favs where justified to the public.

These nights occasionally happen. It's not a sign that bookmakers are capping fights perfectly so much as the anomaly of having AA hold up against 67s 11 times in a row to use a poker analogy.

[jakejd82]

but you shoudnt be to impressed with marquart either. Lost against
okami and chael. both very good fighters, but woodley is good enough IMO to make this close. Marquart also had a pretty close fight against dan miller.

I agree with your assessment and am worried because its been awhile since Nate has fought. I think we can agree that Woodley hasn't fought anyone near the level of either okami or sonnen. I hope I'm wrong , I think Tyron has a ton of potential, I just think he needs to diversify himself

[GigaOuts]

I don't think last night was a convincing sign that Oddsmakers are getting better.

If anything it was a sign that the public did an excellent job overall. They recognized that Caceres had +EV at even slight dog odds whereas all of the other favs where justified to the public.

These nights occasionally happen. It's not a sign that bookmakers are capping fights perfectly so much as the anomaly of having AA hold up against 67s 11 times in a row to use a poker analogy.

That is my point! The public got it right and that's what scare me. We betting against each other, not against the bookies. When the public got it right we get a sh!ty Alex Caceres line. If the public got it wrong we might be looking at Alex Caceres +160. Do we really want to educated the mma betting public? Making it even harder on us to make $$$.

[NunyaBidness]

That is my point! The public got it right and that's what scare me. We betting against each other, not against the bookies. When the public got it right we get a sh!ty Alex Caceres line. If the public got it wrong we might be looking at Alex Caceres +160. Do we really want to educated the mma betting public? Making it even harder on us to make $$$.

Bing bing bing!

Money you win is money I didn't win.

[Sato]

I've come across alot of competent MMA gamblers. It isnt really that difficult to see a outcome if the matchmaking sucks. If you arent fully braindead or a blind fan...you'll mostly get the picks right.

Ive started betting at UFC 148. Thus far Ive got 148 and the Fuel 4 card through and Iam, wait for it, on a 10 fight parlay winning streak.

Ive got 148Silva/Mendes/Roller/Phillipou/Nurmagomedov and Maia) and Fuel 4Marcelo, Carmont, Simpson and Weidman)

Proof: ( http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....838846&page=51) its page 51 through 55 where my bets are. My nicknames Bixby there.

[Beelzebubzy]

Chandler?

[Vaughany]

Chandler?

ha

[Sato]

Chandler?

[Jesus Christ]

I've come across alot of competent MMA gamblers. It isnt really that difficult to see a outcome if the matchmaking sucks. If you arent fully braindead or a blind fan...you'll mostly get the picks right.

Ive started betting at UFC 148. Thus far Ive got 148 and the Fuel 4 card through and Iam, wait for it, on a 10 fight parlay winning streak.

Ive got 148Silva/Mendes/Roller/Phillipou/Nurmagomedov and Maia) and Fuel 4Marcelo, Carmont, Simpson and Weidman)

Proof: ( http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....838846&page=51) its page 51 through 55 where my bets are. My nicknames Bixby there.

You seem to be very green when it comes to gambling but some damn nice hits there...GL in the future.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

That is my point! The public got it right and that's what scare me. We betting against each other, not against the bookies. When the public got it right we get a sh!ty Alex Caceres line. If the public got it wrong we might be looking at Alex Caceres +160. Do we really want to educated the mma betting public? Making it even harder on us to make $$$.

Nope. It's not a zero sum game with fellow competitors unlike poker.

It's a zero sum game against the sportsbooks: on an individual basis if you win then the books lose & vice versa. ALL of the public can theoretically win on a single fight which is impossible with poker (ex Mendes/McKenzie where the line kept getting pricier & pricier for the winner). Sure, by having an educated public you may win *less* money from +EV lines narrowing but if you beat the lines by betting before the action hits then your winnings are unaffected and you can arb out more easily (or share your happiness with fellow winners). It's not a cutthroat poker tourney or even cash game we're dealing with here.

Your analogy is mainly valid for the exception of people who wager on betting exchanges. I haven't seen a single person mention they also wager on Betfair so I'll assume that there are veeeeery few people who are in a zero sum game with me there.

I always keep my mouth shut on my planned bets until I've completed them to not screw myself over... Afterwards, I see no reason not to share them and I always do so on Sherdog/twitter since it's nice when others join in on the win.

For this very reason I wonder when Luca makes his bets since he announces his planned bets on the Oddscast and often says he'll be playing X at the current odds or if the line moves to ____ which could screw himself over if he hasn't established his position yet.

[Vaughany]

Nope. It's not a zero sum game with fellow competitors unlike poker.

It's a zero sum game against the sportsbooks: on an individual basis if you win then the books lose & vice versa. ALL of the public can theoretically win on a single fight which is impossible with poker (ex Mendes/McKenzie where the line kept getting pricier & pricier for the winner). Sure, by having an educated public you may win *less* money from +EV lines narrowing but if you beat the lines by betting before the action hits then your winnings are unaffected and you can arb out more easily (or share your happiness with fellow winners). It's not a cutthroat poker tourney or even cash game we're dealing with here.

Your analogy is mainly valid for the exception of people who wager on betting exchanges. I haven't seen a single person mention they also wager on Betfair so I'll assume that there are veeeeery few people who are in a zero sum game with me there.

I always keep my mouth shut on my planned bets until I've completed them to not screw myself over... Afterwards, I see no reason not to share them and I always do so on Sherdog/twitter since it's nice when others join in on the win.

For this very reason I wonder when Luca makes his bets since he announces his planned bets on the Oddscast and often says he'll be playing X at the current odds or if the line moves to ____ which could screw himself over if he hasn't established his position yet.

Been meaning to get on betfair for a while...need to pull my finger out

[DublinMeUp]

Do you guys even know what a zero sum game is?

[NunyaBidness]

Do you guys even know what a zero sum game is?

No, they saw we talked about it once, so it entered their vocabulary.

[NunyaBidness]

Nope. It's not a zero sum game with fellow competitors unlike poker.

It's a zero sum game against the sportsbooks: on an individual basis if you win then the books lose & vice versa. ALL of the public can theoretically win on a single fight which is impossible with poker (ex Mendes/McKenzie where the line kept getting pricier & pricier for the winner). Sure, by having an educated public you may win *less* money from +EV lines narrowing but if you beat the lines by betting before the action hits then your winnings are unaffected and you can arb out more easily (or share your happiness with fellow winners). It's not a cutthroat poker tourney or even cash game we're dealing with here.

Your analogy is mainly valid for the exception of people who wager on betting exchanges. I haven't seen a single person mention they also wager on Betfair so I'll assume that there are veeeeery few people who are in a zero sum game with me there.

I always keep my mouth shut on my planned bets until I've completed them to not screw myself over... Afterwards, I see no reason not to share them and I always do so on Sherdog/twitter since it's nice when others join in on the win.

For this very reason I wonder when Luca makes his bets since he announces his planned bets on the Oddscast and often says he'll be playing X at the current odds or if the line moves to ____ which could screw himself over if he hasn't established his position yet.

I'm headed out the door for the weekend, so don't have time to respond to this in full.

Poker and sportsbetting including exchanges are both non-zero sum games. But that doesn't really matter.

Your statements would be true if the way to beat sportsbetting was to pick winners, but its not, its to find better prices than the true odds of the event occurring. Laying -170 on a guy and making the argument that he wins 6 out of 10 times might cash you a bet, but it makes you a loser longterm.

I'll write more later.

[DublinMeUp]

No, they saw we talked about it once, so it entered their vocabulary.

Ah i see, wonder if that works for other words to?

nice example btw wherever did you come up with it?

[AdamB]

I've come across alot of competent MMA gamblers. It isnt really that difficult to see a outcome if the matchmaking sucks. If you arent fully braindead or a blind fan...you'll mostly get the picks right.

Ive started betting at UFC 148. Thus far Ive got 148 and the Fuel 4 card through and Iam, wait for it, on a 10 fight parlay winning streak.

Ive got 148Silva/Mendes/Roller/Phillipou/Nurmagomedov and Maia) and Fuel 4Marcelo, Carmont, Simpson and Weidman)

Proof: ( http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....838846&page=51) its page 51 through 55 where my bets are. My nicknames Bixby there.

Great parlay on 148 dude.

[DublinMeUp]

Been meaning to get on betfair for a while...need to pull my finger out

Apart from big fights liquidity is pretty bad as far as i can see, Also limited markets. The only time I've seen liquidity on there is within a half hour of the fight and this is not the best time normally to be placing bets as we know.

Combined with a 5% commission not sure if BF is viable for MMA yet.

[Vaughany]

Apart from big fights liquidity is pretty bad as far as i can see, Also limited markets. The only time I've seen liquidity on there is within a half hour of the fight and this is not the best time normally to be placing bets as we know.

Combined with a 5% commission not sure if BF is viable for MMA yet.

yeah thts the main reason I didnt bother is I never really saw any edge in terms on odds on there for MMA (whilst looking at oddschecker)....was kind of thinking it now tht MMA is getting more and more popular there might be more opportunities there with newbs who jus wanna back their favourite fighter!

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Do you guys even know what a zero sum game is?

Are you seriously be smug about a tiny 5% rake in poker or betting exchange? Get a life. Betting exchanges & poker are zero sum games.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I'm headed out the door for the weekend, so don't have time to respond to this in full.

Poker and sportsbetting including exchanges are both non-zero sum games. But that doesn't really matter.

Your statements would be true if the way to beat sportsbetting was to pick winners, but its not, its to find better prices than the true odds of the event occurring. Laying -170 on a guy and making the argument that he wins 6 out of 10 times might cash you a bet, but it makes you a loser longterm.

I'll write more later.

You gotta read more closely, Nunya.

Sure, by having an educated public you may win *less* money from +EV lines narrowing but if you beat the lines by betting before the action hits then your winnings are unaffected.

That is specifically related to +EV betting which is what I subscribe to (i.e. betting +170 on a guy that wins 4/10 times to use the corollary of your example... before the educated public bets the 'dog and narrows the +EV).

My statements are true about +EV betting if you hit openers. If you're consistently betting closing lines and the public is educated then sure you will suffer from less +EV betting opportunities but IMO that's your problem. MMA betting is not a casual thing you do right before the fights start. That's a sure way to lose money in the long-term. You have to check openers, watch weigh ins, read interviews, consider camp & injury rumours/gossip, etc. to maximize your returns.

[bjpenn85]

But even if you are conservative enough, which off course most people arent, you can win by picking winners. But you will have to be greedy as ****.

[Beelzebubzy]

Jc this is how you know you made it
when your thread is not about you but about Steve Nash

[Vaughany]

ha Steve Nash certified Gold

[DublinMeUp]

Are you seriously be smug about a tiny 5% rake in poker or betting exchange? Get a life. Betting exchanges & poker are zero sum games.

You should have just wrote "I am stupid, please ridicule me"

[DublinMeUp]

Jc this is how you know you made it
when your thread is not about you but about Steve Nash

lol, wp'd