UFC 144: Japan

[TheCalculator]

would love bendo get that strap about his waist

My inner computer kind of "implodes" when I run fight scenarios between him and Frankie. There dead even in my books. I can see them both of them winning (and losing).

Probably won't touch this fight except more likely props.

[Beelzebubzy]

As long as Edgar can avoid the clinch he should be able to outbox Bendo

I wonder how the morning start is going to affect the fighters

[TheCalculator]

As long as Edgar can avoid the clinch he should be able to outbox Bendo

I wonder how the morning start is going to affect the fighters

Can he avoid the clinch? Also Bendo has wicked kicks so Edgar's style of keeping the distance and rushing in with angles might be a bit negated. Bendo won't try to outbox him like Maynard did. This is one of these fights where we 2 completely different styles and bodytypes. IMO, very hard to predict this one.

I can see Edgar winning by decision or Bendo winning by submission.

[Vaughany]

Vaughan Lee vs Kid Yamamoto is an interesting choice...Vaughan Lee traveled to Japan just to train with Kid recently

[Vaughany]

Fight doesn't go the distance! Maybe even doesn't go over 1 round. Sot by sub or Gomi by brutal KO.

Sounds like a good shout

[Jacobi]

Cool!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Beelzebubzy]

Playing Edgar. Survive Round 1 and I think he can out strike Bendo.

[proposition joe]

Played Edgar large but I'm expecting a great arb opportunity here. Bendo should close around plus 200 unless I'm wrong about public perceptions

[NunyaBidness]

Played Edgar large but I'm expecting a great arb opportunity here. Bendo should close around plus 200 unless I'm wrong about public perceptions

I would be surprised by that. Edgar has been the most consistently underrated fighter that I can remember. He was a 3-1 dog against BJ, after beating BJ.

You might be right about money coming in on Frankie, but I doubt it ever gets worse than -210/+170 ish. I'd be all over Bendo at that price, fwiw. (I'm one of the guys who consistently underrates him. . . )

[Vaughany]

Second Nunya! I'll also be all over Henderson at better than +170. Frankie's my boyyy but Henderson has something that Frankie's previous high-level opponents in Maynard, BJ and even Sherk neglected and that is ability to mix-it-up and implement a game-plan (as well as the Lord All Mighty in corner). Maynard amazingly did the same thing in the second fight as he did in the first - batter Frankie in first round then completely lose it and go head-hunting. BJ stood in the centre and let Frankie implement his game-plan of being elusive and getting the odd take-down to score points in both of their fights, and Sherk also neglected his trademark relentless pressure and wrestling to instead try and show his "improved striking" with his T-Rex arms, and also ended up getting picked apart every round. I'm about 93.4% confident (using the Gabe system of percentages!) that Henderson goes in there with the strategy (and more importantly sticks to it) to pressure Frankie and grab a hold of him whether it be against the cage, or by taking him down and working him on the ground (as he did against Jim Miller). Henderson's leg kicks are also something that Edgar will need to be weary off which he didn't have to worry about against Maynard and BJ (both of whom's stand-up is more of a boxing style).

[Beelzebubzy]

Second Nunya! I'll also be all over Henderson at better than +170. Frankie's my boyyy but Henderson has something that Frankie's previous high-level opponents in Maynard, BJ and even Sherk neglected and that is ability to mix-it-up and implement a game-plan (as well as the Lord All Mighty in corner). Maynard amazingly did the same thing in the second fight as he did in the first - batter Frankie in first round then completely lose it and go head-hunting. BJ stood in the centre and let Frankie implement his game-plan of being elusive and getting the odd take-down to score points in both of their fights, and Sherk also neglected his trademark relentless pressure and wrestling to instead try and show his "improved striking" with his T-Rex arms, and also ended up getting picked apart every round. I'm about 93.4% confident (using the Gabe system of percentages!) that Henderson goes in there with the strategy (and more importantly sticks to it) to pressure Frankie and grab a hold of him whether it be against the cage, or by taking him down and working him on the ground (as he did against Jim Miller). Henderson's leg kicks are also something that Edgar will need to be weary off which he didn't have to worry about against Maynard and BJ (both of whom's stand-up is more of a boxing style).

I think that would be his best strategy as well as Frankie will once again be the smaller of the two fighters.
I think Frankie's wrestling will be sharp to keep this standing.
I placed this line at -150 Frankie and +120 Bendo

this fight should be the fav for fight of the night if it goes past round 1

[Vaughany]

I think that would be his best strategy as well as Frankie will once again be the smaller of the two fighters.
I think Frankie's wrestling will be sharp to keep this standing.
I placed this line at -150 Frankie and +120 Bendo

this fight should be the fav for fight of the night if it goes past round 1

Yeah FOTN favourite for sure and will be playing tht probably along with Pettis/Lauzon

[proposition joe]

I would be surprised by that. Edgar has been the most consistently underrated fighter that I can remember. He was a 3-1 dog against BJ, after beating BJ.

You might be right about money coming in on Frankie, but I doubt it ever gets worse than -210/+170 ish. I'd be all over Bendo at that price, fwiw. (I'm one of the guys who consistently underrates him. . . )

You have a good point. I do think that public perception of Frankie has changed drastically since finishing Maynar, however. Bendo is awesome and I am a big fan. I like Frankies striking better and wonder whether Henderson can catch him to take him down. Vaughany made a good point about kicks, though, as Bendos taekwondo is a key part of his game. I'm not sold on him having the hands to outbox Edgar but this is a close fight. My usual parameters wouldn't let me play this, but I really do believe that Henderson will close at least above 150 which would give me a risk free bet on a super close fight. Worst case scenario, I've played a guy at slightly better odds than I believe that he should be.

[Vaughany]

Henderson's gone from +118 to +102 on Pinnacle

[Vaughany]

Second Nunya! I'll also be all over Henderson at better than +170. Frankie's my boyyy but Henderson has something that Frankie's previous high-level opponents in Maynard, BJ and even Sherk neglected and that is ability to mix-it-up and implement a game-plan (as well as the Lord All Mighty in corner). Maynard amazingly did the same thing in the second fight as he did in the first - batter Frankie in first round then completely lose it and go head-hunting. BJ stood in the centre and let Frankie implement his game-plan of being elusive and getting the odd take-down to score points in both of their fights, and Sherk also neglected his trademark relentless pressure and wrestling to instead try and show his "improved striking" with his T-Rex arms, and also ended up getting picked apart every round. I'm about 93.4% confident (using the Gabe system of percentages!) that Henderson goes in there with the strategy (and more importantly sticks to it) to pressure Frankie and grab a hold of him whether it be against the cage, or by taking him down and working him on the ground (as he did against Jim Miller). Henderson's leg kicks are also something that Edgar will need to be weary off which he didn't have to worry about against Maynard and BJ (both of whom's stand-up is more of a boxing style).

Ben Henderson - "He doesn’t kick a whole lot and he’s not used to guys kicking at him. We definitely have to take a look and see where his weaknesses are, and if it happens to be the kicking then I’ll exploit that for sure.

“I think I’ll have a little bit of a size advantage. But I’ve never rolled with him or wrestled against him, so I don’t know how strong he is. But I’ll use every advantage I have, be it size, strength, speed or quickness. If he’s slacking on his submission or grappling game, I’ll try to take advantage of that also."

[Beelzebubzy]

Ben Henderson - "He doesn’t kick a whole lot and he’s not used to guys kicking at him. We definitely have to take a look and see where his weaknesses are, and if it happens to be the kicking then I’ll exploit that for sure.

“I think I’ll have a little bit of a size advantage. But I’ve never rolled with him or wrestled against him, so I don’t know how strong he is. But I’ll use every advantage I have, be it size, strength, speed or quickness. If he’s slacking on his submission or grappling game, I’ll try to take advantage of that also."

I think we can all guess Bendos gameplan. It will be very similar to the Miller/Bendo fight and Bendo/Bocek fight.
Use his strength and get Frankie backing up, and eventually get him down. Then posture up as he always does, like in the Cerrone fight.

I think Frankie will be able to match his strength and keep the fight standing.
Frankie should be able to implement Varner's gameplan. Jamie outboxed him for 2 rounds before becoming a Tard
Round 1 - Referee Herb Dean gives the final instructions, and the unification bout is underway. Varner paws a few jabs. Varner shoots in after a Henderson high kick and takes the fight to the floor. Henderson rolls for a leg, and he persists on the hold as Varner tries to work free. Varner shakes it off and grabs a front headlock. Varner pushes the action into the cage. Henderson defends as he kneels. Varner wrenches a guillotine, but he can't finish. Henderson drops back to a knee and continues to defend the choke. Varner controlling the action with the hold as we hit the halfway mark. Varner works in a few knees to the leg, but Dean wants a restart. Henderson lands kick. Varner grabs his eye, but Dean doesn't see the cause. Henderson rushes in. Varner spins away and gets control. Less than a minute. Henderson stands up, but Varner holds him close. Henderson lands a nice elbow at the bell, and the pair embraces at the close. MMAjunkie.com sees the opening round for Varner, 10-9.

Round 2 - Henderson lands a low kick. Varner misses on a leaping knee, but he clinches. They push away and Henderson kicks high. Varner talking to him in the cage. High kick from Varner. Traded kicks, and Henderson's corner calling for combinations. Varner throws his hands, and Henderson falls away. Varner feigns with the hands and kicks low. Two minutes in, and crowd wants action. Varner throws a combination, and Henderson backs away and resets. Varner misses with a combination. Henderson appears a bit hesitant trying to time the attack. Varner misses a combo but returns to the center of the cage. Henderson kicks to the body. Henderson misses a combo, but finishes with a kick. Varner catches it and tosses him to the floor. Henderson grabs a leg, but Varner pulls away. Varner with two shots inside to the body, and he pushes Henderson to the cage. Traded knees in the clinch. Less than a minute. Varner tosses Henderson to the floor but he pops right back up. Kick from Henderson, then a knee at the bell. Closer round with less distinguishable attacks, but MMAjunkie.com sees it for Varner, 10-9.

Round 3 - Few quick strikes to open, then into the clinch. Little there, and they ack away. Varner looks a little less light on his feet, and Henderson scores with a kick, then a knee. Another high kick from Henderson is checked. Varner content to stand. Henderson brings the offense. Both looking for opening, and the crowd wants more action. High kick from Varner checked. Henderson scores with one of his own. Henderson throws a few punches, then eats a counters and backs away. Varner shoots, and Henderson jumps up and locks in a guillotine choke. Henderson squeezes, and Varner taps while still on his feet. Benson Henderson def. Jamie Varner via submission (guillotine choke) - Round 3, 2:41.

[Vaughany]

GSot out...Mitsuoka replaces

[illmatick]

Liking Edgar as well. Plan on putting at least 2 units on him.

[PunisherIND]

ben henderson 1.5u @ +125

[The Fobfather]

Punisher, where did you get him at +125?

Nick Diaz FTW.

[SATERSTYLE]

Normally I don't like to bet close, even matched big-time fights but I like Edgar here a lot

[PunisherIND]

Punisher, where did you get him at +125?

Nick Diaz FTW.

Bovada opening line

[PunisherIND]

Normally I don't like to bet close, even matched big-time fights but I like Edgar here a lot

you know, i've doubted frankie for his last 4 fights and he's proven me wrong each time. i should really stop betting against him but i couldnt resist the +125 in what i believe will be a very close fight.

i may end up throwing a couple bucks on each of them by split decision.

[Vaughany]

Nam Phan in for Garcia

[Vaughany]

[Jordan23]

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 units on Rampage?

[Beelzebubzy]

What is Odessa doing?

[NunyaBidness]

What is Odessa doing?

The same thing he always does?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Rampage is far from a lock here. He has one KO in his last 8 fights (Wandy) no suprise to me if Bader were to get top position and grind out 2 of 3 rounds

[Jordan23]

Rampage is far from a lock here. He has one KO in his last 8 fights (Wandy) no suprise to me if Bader were to get top position and grind out 2 of 3 rounds

Dudes just don't grind Rampage out like that. The only one to come close was Rashad and Rashad has quick hands a changes levels really well, that's not going to be the case with Bader. It will probably look more like the Hamill fight than the Rashad fight.

[PunisherIND]

4u on rampage -190

[Rubber Guard]

I think Rampage wins. Now to -240 on Dimes. If Rampage doesn't beat Bader he should really think about retiring.

-Rampage wanted to be on the Japan card bad. He should be ready to fight well.
-If Tito could find Bader's chin, we have to believe Rampage will.
-Rampage has always had very good TDD, and Bader has had trouble taking down Lil Nog and others. His MMA wrestling is not that impressive. Even if Bader does get a takedown, I think Rampage gets up rather quick.

The only way I see Rampage losing is if he comes in fat and overlooking Bader. That is totally possibly. But you have to think he has enough "pride" to make sure he doesn't lose to a guy like Bader. An in shape Rampage KO's Bader all day in Japan.

[Beelzebubzy]

Rampage has not koed someone since Wandy including less than average chins Forrest jardine and Evans

[Vaughany]

Rampage has not koed someone since Wandy including less than average chins Forrest jardine and Evans

True, but then IMO he hasn't exactly been facing guys that are easy to hit or have glass chins. He had a broken hand against Hamill - combine tht with Hamill's reasonably solid chin and the chances of him finishing Hamill were always quite small...he just coasted through tht one. Machida is one of the hardest guys to hit in MMA and wasn't a good fight for Rampage stylistically. He dropped Evans but Suga was able to recover due to his experience and great composure - I doubt tht Bader would recover in a similar situation - he doesn't seem to be the type of fighter who deals very well with great adversity - actually panics a lot. And Jon Jones is Jon Jones. Only one which is questionable for me is Jardine - but then Jardine did have an awkward style and good use of leg kicks which is something that Rampage was and is particularly susceptible to (as we saw against Griffin) due to his flat-footedness and desire to plant his feet to generate power.