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Hey, ladle. When are you going to post your 132 bets? I am going to tail you into winners circle. Your analysis is very good and you helped me hit a 3 teamer a few nights ago. Do you think Faber has a chance at all? Also I wanted to get your opinion on the distance prop for bader ortiz. U2.5 rounds pays 2.5/1. Do you see any value in that line?Comment -
Glad I could be of some assistance dude. 132 bets will probably be posted sometime tomorrow.
A chance? Absolutely. Faber is a quality fighter, so you have to afford him a chance. That said, unless he latches onto Cruz's neck in a scramble, I favour Cruz to win by decision; I think he can out-point Faber on the feet and use his striking to camouflage his takedowns and put Faber on his back. Some may argue that Faber has the wrestling advantage, but I disagree: Cruz's wrestling has transitioned more smoothly into MMA, and his constant movement and fleetness of foot make him very difficult to get hold of. Also, if Faber had problems taking down Eddie Wineland for periods in their fight, you've got to think he's going to really struggle to out-wrestle Cruz.
Not really. I think you're better off taking Bader by T/KO if you suspect a finish. I'm personally using that as a hedge for the fight to go the distance, which I think is the most likely outcome. For all his flaws, Ortiz is pretty durable, and Bader's out-put starts fading significantly after the first round.Comment -
Thanks for your help. I put down a small wager on the Under just in case something crazy happens. I am hoping tito comes in thinking he can wrestle with Bader and ends up on the bottom of some vicious GnP.Comment -
My friend if you were to parlay any of these fighters, doesn't have to be a big payout, which ones would you parlay? Last time I followed you with brown, and Velasquez, and I got very lucky with kongo recovering from getting TKO'd twice in about 4 seconds. I am looking forward to your analysis on this card. I am new to MMA betting, and I have only been in street fights, so I am not professionally trained. I really enjoy learning about this sport from you and the other English guy on here whose name starts with a V.Last edited by FindTheLock; 07-02-11, 07:15 AM.Comment -
thanx for that. I'm throwing some down on that parlay. I noticed Bader vig is getting uglier by the minute. Rightfully so, but it doesn't help my parlay odds haha.Comment -
UFC 132 Plays
Good luck everybody. Let's hope for some more 50-45 Dominick Cruz action.
6.2 units on Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units
0.4 units on Urijah Faber wins Submission of the Night at +820 to win 3.28 units
Really looking forward to this one. Here's how I break it down:
Firstly, while some may argue that Faber has the wrestling advantage, I disagree. Offensively, Cruz's wrestling has transitioned more smoothly into MMA in the sense that pretty much all of his takedowns are disguised by his strikes, making them very, very difficult to defend against. We see the same trickey in every fight: after Cruz has asserted himself on the feet, he essentially fools his opponent into thinking he's going to unload with a combination, then changes levels and gets an easy takedown. This is something he's been able to execute with great regularity against excellent wrestlers, and that's chiefly because it's incredibly difficult to counter-act. You raise your hands in anticipation of a big combination, and a split second later you're on your back. You lower your hands in anticipation of a takedown, and a split second later you're eating a high kick or a hook in the face. In my opinion, Cruz is the master of blending striking with wrestling, and he's only getting better. I think we're going to be seeing a lot of straight rights, to lead hooks, to kneetaps in this fight.
Defensive wrestling-wise, Cruz's constant movement, fleetness of foot and general unpredictability make him very difficult to grab hold of or shoot on; he's just an incredibly elusive fighter. Furthermore, if Faber had problems taking down Eddie Wineland for periods in their fight, you've got to think he's going to really struggle to bring down Cruz. Even if Faber can somehow cut off the cage and get his hands on Cruz, the struggle doesn't end there. Not only is Cruz incredibly difficult to pin down, but when someone does manage to get control over his body, he's excellent at maintaing balance, and then using his hips to regain underhooks. We saw that several times in the Jorgensen fight; while Jorgensen is usually very good at finishing takedowns, he was virtually unable to do so against Cruz.
In the stand-up, you've got to favour Cruz. While Faber's striking has improved over the years, I don't think he's accurate or technical enough to string together any considerable offense against a bobbing and weaving Cruz. I think we see Cruz slipping a lot of Faber's jabs and countering with jabs of his own; I also expect him to slip most of Faber's straights and hooks, then counter with four or five strike combinations, as he did against Jorgensen and Bowles. As well as that, I see no reason why Cruz can't exploit Faber's apparent inability to check leg kicks.
With all of that said, Faber is definitely not out of the fight. All it takes is one scramble for him to latch onto Cruz's neck, and it could be finito. Cruz also has a tendency to give his opponent control over his back during scrambles, which could be a problem given how much Faber thrives in that position. Although I think Cruz will be very cautious of the guillotine, and although he's generally very good at getting opponents off of his back, I think a semi-hedge in the form of Faber wins Submission of the Night is a wortwhile play here.
5 units on Matt Wiman at +130 to win 6.5 units
I attribute this line to two things. Firstly, Matt Wiman is a very underrated fighter. If he hadn't been ripped off in the Stout fight, he would be riding a four fight win streak right now and would probably be in or around the title picture. Secondly, Siver has been a recipient of fortunate matchmaking, and he's being totally overrated after the Sotiropoulos win - particularly with regard to his takedown defense. As I've said many times, the Sotiropolous/Siver fight didn't show us that Siver has good takedown defense; it showed us that Sotiropoulos' takedown offense is woefully deficient. Every single time George got position on a leg, he just stood there and did nothing. No effort to sweep Siver's other leg, no effort to force Siver backwards into the fence; he just waited around for Siver to pull his leg out and scurry away. For anyone betting on Siver, it's impotant to remember that Wiman's takedowns are light years better than any of the feeble single legs Sotiropoulos attempted in that fight. I'm confident that he can take Siver down with at least some regularity.
Standing up, this fight is a lot closer than people are giving it credit for. Although Siver is an excellent offensive striker, he's not the best defensive striker in the world. We saw that against Ross Pearson, where Siver got absolutely torn up by Pearson's jab and overhand right. Why is this so significant? Well, although Wiman isn't the most technically proficient of strikers, he has an excellent right hand, particularly his overhand. Against Sam Stout - a fight in which Wiman got absolutely ripped off in the decision - Wiman was consistently the more effective striker; he tagged Stout with many, many right hands throughout. If Stout didn't have such a solid chin, he probably would have been hurt by several of those overhand rights. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Wiman put Siver in jeopardy on the feet.
With all of that said, I think Wiman definitely deserves to be the favourite here. There's always the possibility that he could be on the receiving end of a big punch or a big kick, but Wiman has a decent chin and is, in general, a very resilient and sturdy fighter. I think the more likely outcome is him out-landing Siver on the feet with right hands, and routinely taking Siver down and beating him up on the ground en route to a decision. That said, wouldn't rule out Wiman strangling Siver on the ground if he can take his back, or knocking him out on the feet with a big overhand right.
2.5 units on Andre Winner at +130 to win 3.25 units
I like Winner at these odds. A lot of people expect this fight to play out as a straight kickboxing bout, but I'm not so sure. It's important to keep in mind that - before becoming a good boxer at distance - the area where Winner used to really shine was in the clinch. He has excellent knees and uppercuts from that position, and if he can close the distance and force Njokuani up against the cage, Winner could really put in some work. Although Njokuani is a more varied striker, he doesn't really stop guys from getting to the body, and I think that's something which Winner can exploit. He might even be able to get a bodylock, take Njokuani down and then wear him out on the ground a bit. I think we probably see a fairly competitive fight, but I like Winner to win a scrappy decision for the aforementioned reasons. In short, if Winner presses Njokuani up against the fence, he nullifies Njokuani's offense completely and brings the fight to an area where - arguably - he's strongest. While it won't be as exciting as a striking battle, this is obviously the less high risk option, and Winner knows he needs to win this fight to keep his job.
6.2 units on Dong Hyun Kim by decision at +150 to win 9.3 units
I think the judging could potentially be crucial in this fight. Condit is going to tag Kim repeatedly in the stand-up, and Kim is going to take Condit down and possibly dominate him positionally at times. Part of me wants to favour Condit, as I feel he can get back up to his feet and really put the heat on a tiring Kim (Carlos has a history of completely taking over fights towards the end). The other part of me wants to favour Kim on the basis that the judges will probably show him some love simply for spending prolonged periods of time on top (which was the case in his fight against Nate Diaz, even though he was largely out-fought by Diaz from bottom).
Basically, it's a pick 'em fight in my opinion. With that in mind, I think the best play is Kim by decision hedged (or semi-hedged) with Condit to win outright, as I don't see how Kim finishes him. Right now I only have money tied up in Kim by decision, but I plan on doing the live in-play betting for this event to get a better line on Condit after the first or second round. As Condit is a bit of a slow starter, I expect Kim to take him down pretty swiftly and control Condit on the floor early on. So, I'm hoping that leads to a favourable line on Condit which I can use as somewhat of an insurance bet, in case Condit really turns it on in the third and finishes Kim (or gets a 10-8 round).
1.5 units on Sotiropoulos by decision at +150 to win 2.25 units
Standing up, I think these two are pretty evenly matched: Sotiropoulos is probably the better boxer, while dos Anjos is definitely the better kicker. That said, I think the most salient point here is that Sotiropoulos is more skilled on the ground, and will probably dominate dos Anjos positionally if he can get top position. Can dos Anjos stop the takedowns? I'm dubious. He sprawled well early on against Guida but was still taken down on several occasions, and Guida isn't exactly the most technically sharp of wrestlers. As for Sotiropoulos, while his takedowns looked absolutely woeful against Siver, he only needs to make some minor adjustments to correct them. George is very good at getting position on a leg, he just needs to make an effort to actually finish takedowns by sweeping the leg, or forcing his opponent backwards, as opposed to just standing there and doing nothing. It's also worth noting that, prior to the Siver fight, Sotiropoulos' takedowns have been very effective, even against decent wrestlers like Lauzon, Pellegrino and Stevenson (who, incidentally, are all probably better defensive wrestlers than dos Anjos).
While I do think Sotiropoulos will pass the guard of dos Anjos with relative ease, I don't expect him to be able to get the tap. Dos Anjos is still a decent black belt, and Sotiropoulos is more of a positional grappler who really excels at making transitions, as opposed to getting submissions.
Some Silva/Leben action:
6 units on Wanderlei Silva at -120 to win 5 units
2 units on Chris Leben by KO at +400 to win 8 units
0.5 on Chris Leben by KO at +800 to win 4 units
2.5 units profit if Silva wins.
6 units profit if Leben wins by KO.
Lastly, a big arb and a hedge. The early lines on the fight to go the distance for Bader/Ortiz were unbelievably generous and potentially extremely lucrative. I think I'd be unlucky not to score big here. I'm actually quite proud of these plays:
12.55 units on Bader/Tito goes the distance at -130 to win 9.65 units
13.5 units on Bader/Tito goes the distance at -135 to win 9.99 units
13.5 units on Bader/Tito goes the distance at -148 to win 9.12 units
13.3 units on Bader/Tito doesn't go the distance at +280 to win 37.23 units
0.92 on Bader/Tito doesn't go the distance at +250 to win 2.32 units
Also...
6.2 units on Ryan Bader by T/KO at +366 to win 22.96 units
Hedged with...
9.7 units on Bader/Tito goes the distance at -157 to win 6.2 units
14.54 units profit if the fight goes the distance.
13.26 units profit if Bader wins by T/KO.
Last edited by Ladle; 07-02-11, 01:14 PM.Comment -
Damn dude, those Bader/Tito plays are incredible.
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Looking good bro
Sportingbet still have Bader by decision at +130 so will hopefully be adding more to my arb as a certain site still has Not Bader by decision at +125
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I wish I could play at those places. You guys have it made on those arb bets. Best I can do is 5dimes, which is miles ahead of the other places available in the states, but miles behind the shops you guys are using.Comment -
GL tonight man. I enjoyed reading your write up. I have a parlay with wiman, bader, cruz, and I also did one leaving cruz out just in case Faber ends up pulling it off. I have seen faber fight before and he makes me nervous. Not a guy I feel confident betting against.Comment -
Yeah, we do have a wider array of books to choose from. You can still find excellent arbs using US sites though; it's just a matter of diligently comparing lines, and - more importantly - anticipating line movement. For example, there was no way that Bader/Ortiz to go the distance would stay anywhere near -130, so I was very confident in going big on that immediately.
Appreciate it dude!
Yeah, Faber's not out of the fight by any means. Like I said, all it takes is one scramble, and it could be lights out for Cruz. I don't think that will be the case, but it's certainly plausible.
Either way, Wiman and Bader should get it done.
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Seriously! Bader/tito OTD is -345 right now on my book. The OTD and ITD just came up on my site and they are really shitty... I wanted to take a bunch, but nothing was favorable. Took a big risk and bet the line for RDA/GSOT OTD at -250....
Want to take siver/wiman outside the distance, but that is at -240 right now and too risky imo, both guys could finish, although unlikely imo.
I like all your plays, ladle. Wish I had those options with my bookie. Although I am taking njukouni for a str8 line play at -150. I totally agree with your breakdown, I just think njuokoni has more ways to win and is more of a finisher with a clear power advantage.
Good luck everyone!!!Comment -
Lots of juice on that Sotiropoulos/Dos Anjos bet, but I think you'll cash it. Don't see a finish there.Seriously! Bader/tito OTD is -345 right now on my book. The OTD and ITD just came up on my site and they are really shitty... I wanted to take a bunch, but nothing was favorable. Took a big risk and bet the line for RDA/GSOT OTD at -250.... Want to take siver/wiman outside the distance, but that is at -240 right now and too risky imo, both guys could finish, although unlikely imo.
I think there's more value in Siver/Wiman not going the distance right now, given the respective power of Siver and Wiman, and Wiman's ground and pound and submission game.
Yeah, that's a reasonable bet if you think the fight plays out more like a kickboxing bout. I think we see a competitive fight either way.
Good luck!Comment -
Thanks for the write up Ladle, i'm with you on most of the plays and nice arbs. Can't stand cruz and hope he loses but he is the right play. BOLComment -
Man, 'Dre had nothing for the 419 Scam after getting blasted. No surprise that the best punch he landed was in the clinch; should have closed the distance straight from the get-go. Typical cocky Brit trying to prove a point!
Thanks dude.Thanks for the write up Ladle, i'm with you on most of the plays and nice arbs. Can't stand cruz and hope he loses but he is the right play. BOLComment -
U have ESPN right? I cant see the Spike card being on at 1, it says Countdown?Comment -
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Horrific night! Couldn't have been more unlucky so far. Even my Bader/Ortiz play got totally ****** up.
Oh, and that Siver decision was bull.Comment -
Same here
Was countining on Wiman to save the night. Really need Wand to win inside distance now, the way night is going Leben will probly go and win a decision!Comment -
The Siver decision was totally fair. Siver won the 1st and the 3rd. Dont be influenced by Joe Rogan and announcers. Just because Wiman got the quick takedown near end of first wasnt' enough to win the round.Comment -
Cruz via decision would sure be nice to cap the night though.Comment -
Wiman held onto Siver's leg for most of rounds one and three and got Siver a little closer to the ground than GSot but hardly enough to win those rounds. Round two Wiman won but definitely not a 10-8. You were clearly influenced by the bloodied face and cut of Siver and not the actual punches and offense that actually landed. Judges got this one right.Comment -
What did Siver do offensively? Almost absolutely nothing. Wiman did more.Wiman held onto Siver's leg for most of rounds one and three and got Siver a little closer to the ground than GSot but hardly enough to win those rounds.
Don't tell people what they were influenced by. You don't have a clue.
No they didn't. A guy who did essentially nothing but defend got rewarded.Judges got this one right.Comment -
Fixed
Hey euro f@g... you suck at betting. Perhaps you should just make predictions strictly for fun, till you understand the finer points?
Fukk who tailed you to Losers Lane, you owe .5u to everyone who had to read through your horrible writing/ass bets.
In before you say I admitted on a forum that I was depressed, in before you call me a ''pleb'' like the euro f@g you are
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Oh, sup bro? How's the dead dog? Been mourning the last month, have you?
P.S: Re-evaluate your definition of "tagged". "Tagged" is not landing baby punches whilst your opponent has your leg.
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