Good luck. Square parlay looks golden. 
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Cerrone/Kelly goes three round distance +140: 5u to win 7u
this line is ridiculous in my opinion. And a tiny hedge of sorts, following Ecco here:
Cerrone by TKO/KO +3500: 0.2u to win 7uComment -
I agree and is why I took Cerrone by decision. Both have solid chins and are gritty as hell. Cerrone has said he wants Kelly to stand and bang with him and I highly doubt that Kelly will look to initiate a takedown, a) because he's not a wrestler and b) Cerrone is dangerous off his back. I guess as Cerrone has Jackson in his corner they will probably tell him to try and take Kelly down at some point and get the sub so spose it could finish that way but Cerrone doesnt seem as dangerous when he's on top compared to his triangles off his back.
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I agree and is why I took Cerrone by decision. Both have solid chins and are gritty as hell. Cerrone has said he wants Kelly to stand and bang with him and I highly doubt that Kelly will look to initiate a takedown, a) because he's not a wrestler and b) Cerrone is dangerous off his back. I guess as Cerrone has Jackson in his corner they will probably tell him to try and take Kelly down at some point and get the sub so spose it could finish that way but Cerrone doesnt seem as dangerous when he's on top compared to his triangles off his back.
I'm hoping for Kelly by decision, but good luck! I actually think Kelly will go for takedowns and land some. Even though he was subbed by Marcus Davis, Kelly has tremendous confidence in his submission defense, which I think is underrated and likely improved for this fight. I don't know if Kelly will want to stay on top for very long, but I do see him going for takedowns to score points. His ground and pound is quite effective. If it stays on the feet the entire time, he'll get outclassed all fifteen minutes or until he gets finished. But the ground is where things get tricky. Cerrone has an amazing guard as you say, but the odds are just too heavy on Cerrone by sub.Comment -
GL tonight Lask. Lets go Cerrone by TKO!!!
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thanks, and thanks for the points
Time to tally up the results tonight:
Result for UFC 126: +22.39u
2011 YTD: +85.9u after three UFC events this year
Third consecutive UFC event where I hit one of my big props and earned over 20u. Can't expect this to continue... I've been rather lucky, I admit!
Most pleased with the Jones by submission prop of course, but I'm also glad I bet the full 5u on Johnson even though I missed the opener, which would have been much more lucrative. I foolishly waited for money to come back on Kid Yamamoto... which never happened, so that cut into my profits a bit. But since I thought Mighty Mouse should be the favorite, I made it a max bet of 5u anyway (ever since Machida's "loss" to Rampage late last year, I don't ever bet more than 5u). Mighty Mouse was much too quick, so that was a stress free and fun fight to watch.
Only bet I feel was a stupid "action bet" was the late addition of Ruediger over Taylor. It was a bet against Taylor's poor takedown defense more than anything, but another case of sloppy "capping." Ruediger is a good fighter but not UFC caliber in the stacked lightweight division, and now he'll be cut for sure.Last edited by lasker; 02-06-11, 03:12 AM.Comment -
wow jones by submission! great hit laskerComment -
Nice hit on Jones by sub Lask. That really made your night!Comment -
yup, otherwise I would have only won about one unit!
Adding:
Arlovski in round 3 +1000: 0.5u to win 5u
Arlovski wins by 3 round decision +340: 1u to win 3.4u
Emelianenko wins by 3-round decision +476: 1u to win 4.76u
Very interested in analysis on these fights, so if anyone has some insight (even if it's to say that these bets are stupid) please post it here.Comment -
I really do not like the Fedor by decision bet....someone is going to get knocked out or TKOd in this fight. Fedor always looks to finish and usually he does.Comment -
thanks for the comment. My thinking is that Antonio Silva has one hell of a chin and seems tough to finish, also that Fedor might fight a bit more conservatively after his loss. He may be able to get some ground and pound in, he may just use his speed advantage to land more strikes on the feet without getting overzealous for the finish (which happened in his last fight and which he might want to avoid from now on). Fedor actually has seven wins by decision, just one less than his total wins by KO/TKO, but because of his recent streak people tend to forget this and I think it might be reflected in the odds.
Of course I agree this will most likely finish inside the distance, but considering the odds -- this outcome would need to happen around 17.5% of the time for it to be a value play, and I think that's reasonable.Comment -
I disagree with xelance, Fedor's toughest fights have all gone to decision. Babalu, Big Nog 2x, Schilt, Crocop, and Arona all were decisions. Bigfoot's well rounded game and toughness with Fedor's recent inactivity and poor form cements this as a good bet.
My prediction is that on Sat night after the event, we will all be in this thread telling you how great a bet it wasComment -
cheers, I've been having really good luck with props lately. After Bones didn't get the sub in the first round I was resigned to it not happening, then very pleasantly surprised when he subbed him in the second.Comment -
Certainly is, in fact I'm waiting for the weigh ins, because I'm dangerously close to putting a bet on Silva. Nobody said you have to pick just one bet though, both decision and Silva are at +300 that is potentially a very nice payday for a straddle. Vaughany makes quite a lot off those kind of straddles (as well as arbs).Comment -
These are the two bets I've been considering. And what Poppa said above pretty much sums up my thoughts on it...anybody of a decent level with a good chin has lost by decision to Fedor. Obviously if the odds for Fedor by decision were +250 or somethign than there wouldnt be value but at almost +500 I definetly see value in that. The Brazilian Ted Williams is tough as hell and has that big giant John Merrick head like Tito which can take a pounding (as seen against Kyle). No doubt that Fedor can finish him with ground and pound unlike Kyle but at +476 it's hard to resist.
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-08-11, 04:46 PM.Comment -
Glad you're on the same side, or at least leaning the same way.
If Bigfoot gets the upset, right now the odds don't differentiate much between him winning inside the distance or by decision, but to me it seems more likely that Bigfoot would win by decision. He hit Arlovski with some good shots and only really wobbled him once as I recall, and Fedor's chin is much better. Bigfoot is strong but I don't think he'll be looking for a knockout punch, his game plan will probably involve trying to close the distance and dirty box, and also to try take Fedor down if he can. Either way, I don't see Fedor getting stopped. Fedor is dangerous off of his back and Silva doesn't seem great at holding guys down, despite his size. Closing the distance is also dangerous because of Fedor's judo skills. I could see this going to a close decision, but it's harder for me to envision Fedor getting stopped for a second time in a row. If it ends inside the distance I'm confident Fedor takes it.Comment -
Yeah no way I see Fedor gettin stopped twice in a row, I think he's gonna be a lot more cautious after that Werdum mishap...will act as a big eye-opener for him I think. I've actually gone and placed a small play on Fedor by TKO/KO but only because I see value as it was +225 which is considerably better than the odds anywer else. Plus the decision prop has gone down to +440 on Sportbet. If it rises back up again I might add it in a parlay.Comment -
What a wasted opportunity. Helwani had the opportunity to interview Fedor and was a disgrace. First he insults Fedor by presenting that tiny bottle of cheap vodka as a "gift," which was really insulting and Fedor even commented on it at the end. Then he goes on and on with his stupid sweater joke that was never funny to begin with. Doesn't ask one question related to Fedor's thoughts about Bigfoot as an opponent or how training went for this fight. Goes on and on about Fedor's thoughts about Dana White and the UFC, which is really beating a dead horse by now. Makes the cheeky comment "yeah, and you always do what the boss asks you to, huh?" regarding Vadim Finkelchtein, Fedor's friend rather than boss. Doesn't ask one personal question that gives any insight into Fedor's character. Doesn't ask him about his hobbies like painting and chess, his brothers or his wife or daughters, his beliefs, how he got into fighting, how he feels or if he cares about his legacy, what he wants to do when he retires... there's so much. Helwani comes across like a giddy star-struck teenager. No depth to his questions whatsoever. Not sure why people like this guy. Karyn Bryant is on another level as an interviewer.
Bas Rutten's interview with Fedor from a while back is not very long, but even this one is much better. I cracked up when Fedor says he wanted to be an astronaut, Bas mentions Neil Armstrong and Fedor quickly responds "No."
Last edited by lasker; 02-10-11, 02:50 AM.Comment -
Yeah Helwani is clearly passionate about his work which is great and I think sometimes his interviews are very good, but sometimes not so much! I tried watchin that Fedor interview yesterday but turned it off after Part 1, it was just too awkward with the translating and like you say with the questions Ariel was asking, also the Vodka gift didnt exactly get the reaction from Fedor that Ariel was perhaps hoping for! I like Karen Bryant as well, she creates an instant rapport with the interviewee straight away and it comes off all very informal but at same time not unprofessional.What a wasted opportunity. Helwani had the opportunity to interview Fedor and was a disgrace. First he insults Fedor by presenting that tiny bottle of cheap vodka as a "gift," which was really insulting and Fedor even commented on it at the end. Then he goes on and on with his stupid sweater joke that was never funny to begin with. Doesn't ask one question related to Fedor's thoughts about Bigfoot as an opponent or how training went for this fight. Goes on and on about Fedor's thoughts about Dana White and the UFC, which is really beating a dead horse by now. Makes the cheeky comment "yeah, and you always do what the boss asks you to, huh?" regarding Vadim Finkelchtein, Fedor's friend rather than boss. Doesn't ask one personal question that gives any insight into Fedor's character. Doesn't ask him about his hobbies like painting and chess, his brothers or his wife or daughters, his beliefs, how he got into fighting, how he feels or if he cares about his legacy, what he wants to do when he retires... there's so much. Helwani comes across like a giddy star-struck teenager. No depth to his questions whatsoever. Not sure why people like this guy. Karyn Bryant is on another level as an interviewer.
Bas Rutten's interview with Fedor from a while back is not very long, but even this one is much better. I cracked up when Fedor says he wanted to be an astronaut, Bas mentions Neil Armstrong and Fedor quickly responds "No."
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I totally agree Lasker, I don't understand why so many people believe he is such a great interviewer. He is very annoying to me for some reason as well.Comment -
he has some good interviews and some really shitty interviews. Most of his interviews with Dana and the more well known fighters in the UFC are good.Comment -
you just had to remind me about that Fedor vs Barnett fight that never happened...that was actually going to be a pretty decent card and it would have been the first live MMA event for me, and the rest is history. F*ing Josh Barnett and sorry ass Affliction! I am still bitter about that one lolComment -
Just watched the interview and it was one of the worst I have ever seen...absolutely horrible. As for the vodka, I actually think Stoli vodka isnt bad at all....but that was a dumb thing to do.Last edited by xelance; 02-10-11, 06:12 PM.Comment -
John Cholish -165: 1.65u to win 1u
Said I would stop betting on fighters I don't know much about, but I lied. Not to worry: these kinds of picks will soon rise to the coveted autofade status, making the rest of you lots of $$ at my expense.Comment -
I'm way late here... been absent for a bit, but hell of a job on 126 man. 3 straight outrageous cards for the big props. This is a great start to the year.
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I really see fedor rocking big foot and locking down a quick sub, hong man choi style. Big foot has a good chin but in his last fight he did get rocked, fedor will not let him get his senses back and i see him slapping on a armbar after a big right hand.Comment -
Thanks, sadly my results here are better than my actual results, since a bunch of silly parlays cut into my profits, but this has been an amazing ride and I hope to keep it going as much as possible! I'm sure some losing events are just around the corner for me, but so far this year I definitely can't complain.
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I'd be happy if you're right (need Fedor to win for a parlay to hit, even though I'd prefer him to win by decision) but it would really surprise me. Compared to Hong Man Choi, Bigfoot is Demian Maia on the ground. Better, even. Same goes for Bigfoot's jiu jitsu compared to Sylvia or Coleman or Randleman, or practically anybody Fedor subbed... Bigfoot is not a fish out of the water when it comes to jiu-jitsu. He hung in there with Werdum in a fight that went the distance. If Fedor wins by stoppage I think it will be a TKO, he should enjoy a significant speed advantage on the feet, but as I said I think there's actually a pretty good chance this one goes to decision.Last edited by lasker; 02-12-11, 05:44 PM.Comment
