Lasker's MMA Picks

**snake11eyes** · 01-23-11, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by lasker

Guillard wins in round 1 +775: 3u to win 23.25u

I bet Guillard to win, but thanks for pointing this out to me. I had a feeling this was going to be a great call.

**Eccocide** · 01-23-11, 10:16 AM

Unreal, Lask. Keep up the good work.

**Jordan23** · 01-23-11, 11:31 AM

Another awesome night from you! Very very impressive. Keep up the good work!

**Shagdogy** · 01-24-11, 11:34 AM

Incredible stretch here Lask! You've been hitting all your big odds props, it's unreal. Congrats!

**lasker** · 01-27-11, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Wowza! Beautiful work Lask!

Originally posted by 99Boxster

Whoa dude, you crushed again

Originally posted by illmatick

this is what i like to see.

Originally posted by snake11eyes

I bet Guillard to win, but thanks for pointing this out to me. I had a feeling this was going to be a great call.

Originally posted by Eccocide

Unreal, Lask. Keep up the good work.

Originally posted by Jordan23

Another awesome night from you! Very very impressive. Keep up the good work!

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Incredible stretch here Lask! You've been hitting all your big odds props, it's unreal. Congrats!

cheers everyone!

Moving on to strikeforce this weekend, I should probably stay away but I'm throwing in a super-square parlay. I'll admit this is not really a value play at all, but rather an intuitive one (which is to say, it's probably -EV

).

Three team parlay @+157: Diaz -340 / Souza -230 / Coy -260, 2u to win 3.14u

I'll do a quick breakdown for this one. We're moving into a series of events where I see quite a few mismatches, and Strikeforce this weekend is no exception. Diaz is better than Cyborg everywhere, he has far more technical boxing, a better ground game (I would think so, anyway), and much better cardio. Plus the Diaz chin is legendary, which gives me some extra confidence in case he gets caught early. I completely agree with Brooks that outside of KO power, Jacare is better than Lawler everywhere. Souza is the better striker, imo, and of course on the ground it's no contest. I think he'll strike for a while to set up takedowns. He'll eventually get one and finish with a submission. A decision win is not out of the question either. I know Lawler can catch him with one punch but it's a risk I'm willing to take. Coy should be a much better wrestler than Moore, and he is just a class above all around. Moore is a wrestler himself but will be outmatched in that department. Coy has wins over Rick Story and Mike Pierce, which is saying a lot even if it was a few years back. More recently he lost a close decision to Tyron Woodley in a fight that could have gone either way. I'll admit I've only watched one of Moore's fights, but I don't think he has any real weapons to win this fight. BOL everyone

**Vaughany** · 01-27-11, 03:28 PM

I've been considering a similar parlay Lask, just waiting till tomorrow in case some money comes in on Lawler and boosts the Jacare line slightly.

**rocky mattioli** · 01-27-11, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by lasker

cheers everyone!

Moving on to strikeforce this weekend, I should probably stay away but I'm throwing in a super-square parlay. I'll admit this is not really a value play at all, but rather an intuitive one (which is to say, it's probably -EV

).

Three team parlay @+157: Diaz -340 / Souza -230 / Coy -260, 2u to win 3.14u

I'll do a quick breakdown for this one. We're moving into a series of events where I see quite a few mismatches, and Strikeforce this weekend is no exception. Diaz is better than Cyborg everywhere, he has far more technical boxing, a better ground game (I would think so, anyway), and much better cardio. Plus the Diaz chin is legendary, which gives me some extra confidence in case he gets caught early. I completely agree with Brooks that outside of KO power, Jacare is better than Lawler everywhere. Souza is the better striker, imo, and of course on the ground it's no contest. I think he'll strike for a while to set up takedowns. He'll eventually get one and finish with a submission. A decision win is not out of the question either. I know Lawler can catch him with one punch but it's a risk I'm willing to take. Coy should be a much better wrestler than Moore, and he is just a class above all around. Moore is a wrestler himself but will be outmatched in that department. Coy has wins over Rick Story and Mike Pierce, which is saying a lot even if it was a few years back. More recently he lost a close decision to Tyron Woodley in a fight that could have gone either way. I'll admit I've only watched one of Moore's fights, but I don't think he has any real weapons to win this fight. BOL everyone

i like coy,too...that probably should have been a win vs woodley....

**Vaughany** · 01-27-11, 04:06 PM

I've decided to go with Anderson instead of Jacare!

**lasker** · 01-27-11, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I've decided to go with Anderson instead of Jacare!

you're backing CANderson?!

Yeah, I like that bet too (bet him earlier, may add more now that the pride>ufc fade boosts my confidence). Probably one hedge worth considering is Belfort in round 1, though I imagine you'll throw in a Belfort KO of the night hedge as well!

**Vaughany** · 01-27-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by lasker

you're backing CANderson?!

Yeah, I like that bet too (bet him earlier, may add more now that the pride>ufc fade boosts my confidence). Probably one hedge worth considering is Belfort in round 1, though I imagine you'll throw in a Belfort KO of the night hedge as well!

ha yeah Pride>UFC's disdain for Canderson was the icing on the cake...I'll be involving him in at least 2 more parlays next week! And yeah I'll be taking Belfort in Rnd 1 or Belfort KO of the Night - whichever one offers best odds!

**urge2kill** · 01-27-11, 05:14 PM

5dimes has Belfort in round 1 +600. KO of the night should be better than that.

**Vaughany** · 01-27-11, 05:16 PM

I can get Belfort in Rnd 1 at +750 on Paddy but I expect KO of the Night to be at least +800

**xelance** · 01-27-11, 06:37 PM

lawler went down from +205 to +190 on bookmaker in a matter of hours

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-27-11, 06:41 PM

My gut has a funny feeling about the Lawler v Jacare match... or maybe that's just my lunch.

In any case, I think I like a play on Coy over a play on Jacare at this point. Sh*t. Not sure if I'll have time to review for these.

**xelance** · 01-27-11, 06:50 PM

I got a 5 unit play on roger gracie at -145...damn bookmaker has horrible lines. I just checked 5dimes and it is -135, grrr.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-27-11, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by xelance

I got a 5 unit play on roger gracie at -145...damn bookmaker has horrible lines. I just checked 5dimes and it is -135, grrr.

You'll have an edge with jumping on opening lines using bookmaker in the future though... in theory, as its mighty difficult to grab those openers in a lot of instances.

**lasker** · 01-27-11, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by xelance

I got a 5 unit play on roger gracie at -145...damn bookmaker has horrible lines. I just checked 5dimes and it is -135, grrr.

true, but bookmaker has the line openers, which makes them indispensable in my opinion. if you can get a good read on the opening lines (and be lucky enough to catch the opener in the first place) there's often a lot more value to be found there than on 5dimes. I'm a huge Gracie fan in general, and Roger is considered the best jiu-jitsu practicioner in the world, but after his showing against Randleman I can't bet on him against a seasoned vet like Prangley. Especially since Roger fights so infrequently. Good luck though, I hope he wins.

**xelance** · 01-27-11, 07:13 PM

Prangleys last fight against Keith Jardine was absolutely horrendous, even though he pulled out the split decision. Gracie's showing against Randleman wasn't the best, but he pulled it out with a nice submission and I think he will do the same against Prangley.

**lasker** · 01-30-11, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by lasker

cheers everyone! Moving on to strikeforce this weekend, I should probably stay away but I'm throwing in a super-square parlay. I'll admit this is not really a value play at all, but rather an intuitive one (which is to say, it's probably -EV

). Three team parlay @+157: Diaz -340 / Souza -230 / Coy -260, 2u to win 3.14u

Result for Strikeforce Diaz vs Cyborg: -2u

YTD: +61.51u

I shouldn't be betting on fighters I've hardly watched, like both Coy and Moore. Wish I would have seen that illmatick was on Moore, I might have reconsidered. Moving on!

**Squareguy** · 01-30-11, 10:00 PM

Just out of curiosity, what book are you using for those props?

I need a new book, preferably one that accepts VC as a deposit method.

**lasker** · 01-31-11, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by Squareguy

Just out of curiosity, what book are you using for those props? I need a new book, preferably one that accepts VC as a deposit method.

5dimes

**Jordan23** · 01-31-11, 04:02 PM

You'll get back on track at 126. Everybody has an off night. Keep up the good work!

**lasker** · 02-02-11, 08:15 AM

thanks Jordan.

Adding:

Paul Kelly +260: 2u to win 5.2u

**lasker** · 02-02-11, 08:17 AM

Mighty Mouse +115: 5u to win 5.75u

**lasker** · 02-02-11, 08:29 AM

Franklin wins in round 3 +1300: 0.25u to win 3.25u

**xelance** · 02-02-11, 11:43 AM

what do you think about robertson-pierce matchup? Robertson has never fought in the UFC, but he has a solid background..at +240 it seems like a small play to me. Any thoughts?

**Shagdogy** · 02-02-11, 11:07 PM

Do you mean Paul Kelly at -260 instead of plus? If you got him at plus that's outrageous!

** Hahaha, my bad. I was confused. I was thinking of Paul Taylor v. Gabe Ruediger, and NOBODY should ever be -260 when they're fighting Ruediger. +260 for Kelly is pretty good value, though he will have to be careful of the long limbs and active guard of Cerrone. Good luck!

**Karnivool** · 02-03-11, 07:41 AM

Originally posted by lasker

Franklin wins in round 3 +1300: 0.25u to win 3.25u

Which site did you find this play?

**lasker** · 02-03-11, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by Karnivool

Which site did you find this play?

5dimes. For all future questions like this, all of my prop bets are on 5dimes!!!

**lasker** · 02-03-11, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by xelance

what do you think about robertson-pierce matchup? Robertson has never fought in the UFC, but he has a solid background..at +240 it seems like a small play to me. Any thoughts?

I don't know enough about Robertson so I'm going to stay away. Pierce is an excellent fighter and Robertson has no notable wins. I would expect Pierce to win but after my Nathan Coy fiasco I'm going to stay away from fighters I don't know much about, at least for this event

Good luck.

**lasker** · 02-03-11, 03:14 PM

Jones wins by submission +1400: 1.5u to win 21u

a bit silly perhaps, but just a hunch...

**Jordan23** · 02-03-11, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Jones wins by submission +1400: 1.5u to win 21u a bit silly perhaps, but just a hunch...

He could very well win by submission. Bader is going to be too concerned with elbows.

**Shagdogy** · 02-05-11, 03:23 PM

Good luck lask. My straight plays are in line with a lot of your props... let's do it!

**lasker** · 02-05-11, 03:48 PM

Thanks Shagdogy, BOL tonight everyone

UFC 126 Recap

Originally posted by lasker

Franklin -150: 1.5u to win 1u.

Originally posted by lasker

Silva -265: 3u to win 1.13u

Originally posted by lasker

Adding: Paul Kelly +260: 2u to win 5.2u

Originally posted by lasker

Mighty Mouse +115: 5u to win 5.75u

Originally posted by lasker

Franklin wins in round 3 +1300: 0.25u to win 3.25u

Originally posted by lasker

Jones wins by submission +1400: 1.5u to win 21u

Adding Griffin/Franklin to decision -150: 3u to win 2u

square parlay Torres -340 / Jones -290 / Mendes -355: 2u to win 2.46u

**Vaughany** · 02-05-11, 03:50 PM

GL tonight Lask..hoping for a Mighty Mouse decision win!