Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 05:45 AM

Adding:

Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units.

I may well end up bottling it and arbing out of the Saunders side of this with Amaya at +310 by tonight! Saunders' questionable stand-up defence scares me...I could see Amaya throwing a wild over-hand right/haymaker and catching him! Obviously somebody of Saunder's calibre should walk through this dude, but fact is Amaya is wild, aggressive, resilient and has power which could be enough to catch Saunders' who doesnt have the chin to take too many punches! If I could I'd hedge with Amaya by TKO/KO as only way he possibly wins.

**Hannibal** · 03-30-12, 08:58 AM

Made a similar parlay last night..
Except its saunders + rory itd.
I'm confident that rory will get it down easily anf once down mills will be completely owned.
I think I'm more worried about saunders being outwrestled.

**dww123** · 03-30-12, 09:11 AM

Saunders is going to walk through Amaya. The promoters know this which is why this fight isn't the main event. From the footage i watched of Amaya this may be a mismatch, unless i am missing something.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units.

I may well end up bottling it and arbing out of the Saunders side of this with Amaya at +310 by tonight! Saunders' questionable stand-up defence scares me...I could see Amaya throwing a wild over-hand right/haymaker and catching him! Obviously somebody of Saunder's calibre should walk through this dude, but fact is Amaya is wild, aggressive, resilient and has power which could be enough to catch Saunders' who doesnt have the chin to take too many punches! If I could I'd hedge with Amaya by TKO/KO as only way he possibly wins.

Added 150 units on Saunders at -275. Will use this as arb with Amaya at +320 or better so that I have some coverage on play above. Just waiting to see if Amaya's line improves...hoping it hits +335 or something

**dww123** · 03-30-12, 04:01 PM

The lines really stagnated. Last week they were jumping. I don't think there is much volume on this card.

**Beelzebubzy** · 03-30-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Added 150 units on Saunders at -275. Will use this as arb with Amaya at +320 or better so that I have some coverage on play above. Just waiting to see if Amaya's line improves...hoping it hits +335 or something

Damn trying to go on vacation again.

V throw 10 units for me on Saunders on -275, Ill send you American Dollars
Instead of Scouts Honor, I have Gabe Honor

**fosho14** · 03-30-12, 04:27 PM

Vaughany, do you use any arbitrage software?

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

Vaughany, do you use any arbitrage software?

Cant say I do. All I use is oddschecker.com and bestfightodds.com!

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by dww123

The lines really stagnated. Last week they were jumping. I don't think there is much volume on this card.

SOme crazy movement now! Amaya at +461 and Carlos Pereira +365 on Pinnacle!

Amoussou +180

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Added 150 units on Saunders at -275. Will use this as arb with Amaya at +320 or better so that I have some coverage on play above. Just waiting to see if Amaya's line improves...hoping it hits +335 or something

With the crazy swing I've managed to get Amaya at +461 so now have a quasi-arb as I'll net 55.145 units profit if Amaya wins. Plus if Saunders does win (asides from keeping the double with Rory Mac and treble parlay with Not Diaz Inside & JDS/Overeem not going distance alive) I'll make 10.045 units profit.

Also added:

1 unit on Jordan Smith/Rickels to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +145 to win 1.45 units.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 05:13 PM

Summary of plays for tonight:

Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units;

1 unit on Jordan Smith/Rickels to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +145 to win 1.45 units;

Parlay (treble): 6.294 units on Ben Saunders (-300), Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635), & Not JDS/Overeem to Go the Distance (-900) to win 4.499 units;

Parlay (double): 6.294 units on Myles Jury (-185), & Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635) to win 4.929 units.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

With the crazy swing I've managed to get Amaya at +461 so now have a quasi-arb as I'll net 55.145 units profit if Amaya wins. Plus if Saunders does win (asides from keeping the double with Rory Mac and treble parlay with Not Diaz Inside & JDS/Overeem not going distance alive) I'll make 10.045 units profit.

Also added:

1 unit on Jordan Smith/Rickels to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +145 to win 1.45 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of plays for tonight:

Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units;

1 unit on Jordan Smith/Rickels to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +145 to win 1.45 units;

Parlay (treble): 6.294 units on Ben Saunders (-300), Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635), & Not JDS/Overeem to Go the Distance (-900) to win 4.499 units;

Parlay (double): 6.294 units on Myles Jury (-185), & Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635) to win 4.929 units.

Saunders gets the win, so two parlays still alive, and up 10.045 units for the night so far (including the arb) which will help cover the Jury stake if he loses to Iaquinta.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 09:22 PM

Adding:

4 units on Iaquinta at +340 to win 13.6 units.

This line has gotten out of hand a bit!

**Educ8d Degener8** · 03-30-12, 09:35 PM

Work has a new watchguard software that blocks this site when I'm on the company network! (sh*t)

Blocks bestfightodds and 5dimes of course too...

Missed out on that Amoussou movement and Iaquinta isn't posted on 5dimes at the moment??? Fawk.

edit: Iaquinta line is back up... 0.5 u on Al +340... how the f*ck did Amoussou get up to +180... Jeezus.

GL V

**NunyaBidness** · 03-30-12, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Work has a new watchguard software that blocks this site when I'm on the company network! (sh*t)

Blocks bestfightodds and 5dimes of course too...

Missed out on that Amoussou movement and Iaquinta isn't posted on 5dimes at the moment??? Fawk.

edit: Iaquinta line is back up... 0.5 u on Al +340... how the f*ck did Amoussou get up to +180... Jeezus.

GL V

Keep trying proxys until you find one that they haven't blocked. Or else try to vpn to your home system.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 03-30-12, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Keep trying proxys until you find one that they haven't blocked. Or else try to vpn to your home system.

I knew my boy Nunya would hit me up with a workaround... the new IT guy that set up this new sh*t seems pretty sharp, unlike the previous guys who didn't give a f*ck... will me looking for proxys set off any signals to this dude?

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Work has a new watchguard software that blocks this site when I'm on the company network! (sh*t)

Blocks bestfightodds and 5dimes of course too...

Missed out on that Amoussou movement and Iaquinta isn't posted on 5dimes at the moment??? Fawk.

edit: Iaquinta line is back up... 0.5 u on Al +340... how the f*ck did Amoussou get up to +180... Jeezus.

GL V

ha Damn them! Luckily my work are really lax on tht kind of thing! yeah, I didnt pay enough attention to the Amoussou fight...as always it was great value in hindsight...but I was too pre-occupied with my Saunders plays! GL bro

**Beelzebubzy** · 03-30-12, 10:11 PM

Damn great night v

**NunyaBidness** · 03-30-12, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I knew my boy Nunya would hit me up with a workaround... the new IT guy that set up this new sh*t seems pretty sharp, unlike the previous guys who didn't give a f*ck... will me looking for proxys set off any signals to this dude?

If he's actually looking through logs and what not, yes. If he's new he's probably going to be a hero for a while. Try to find a few strange ones at home and check those when you're at work. I'm sure all the majors are blocked.

A VPN is safer, since he can't really have you blocked to it since it'd be going to your home address, but you might not have permissions to install the software at your work side. Try openVPN.

Otherwise, you could tether your work system to your cell. Check to see if he notices if your ethernet cable happens to fall out for a couple of hours (if thats feasible).

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Work has a new watchguard software that blocks this site when I'm on the company network! (sh*t)

Blocks bestfightodds and 5dimes of course too...

Missed out on that Amoussou movement and Iaquinta isn't posted on 5dimes at the moment??? Fawk.

edit: Iaquinta line is back up... 0.5 u on Al +340... how the f*ck did Amoussou get up to +180... Jeezus.

GL V

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Damn great night v

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:19 PM

Chiesa looks like he'll have a nice size advantage

**Libert1ne** · 03-30-12, 10:20 PM

Profitted 40 units tonight. These smaller events have f'd up odds sometimes. Like a TUF Fight with a fighter at -400, that's just insane.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 03-30-12, 10:21 PM

LOL, Adelaide Byrd tried to f*ck up that decision...

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of plays for tonight:

Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units;

1 unit on Jordan Smith/Rickels to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +145 to win 1.45 units;

Parlay (treble): 6.294 units on Ben Saunders (-300), Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635), & Not JDS/Overeem to Go the Distance (-900) to win 4.499 units;

Parlay (double): 6.294 units on Myles Jury (-185), & Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635) to win 4.929 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

4 units on Iaquinta at +340 to win 13.6 units.

This line has gotten out of hand a bit!

+6.306 units profit (+18.299 units profit including the Saunders arb). Plus have following parlays pending:

Parlay (treble): 6.294 units on Ben Saunders (-300), Not Nate Diaz Inside Distance (-635), & Not JDS/Overeem to Go the Distance (-900) to win 4.499 units;

Parlay (double): 50 units on Saunders (-275), & Rory MacDonald (-400) to win 35.327 units.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by Libert1ne

Profitted 40 units tonight. These smaller events have f'd up odds sometimes. Like a TUF Fight with a fighter at -400, that's just insane.

Nice one

. Yeah just got silly! A number one pick having 22% chance of winning (+340 odds)

Only way I could possibly understand those odds would of been if he'd of been facing a high-level wrestler.

**BIGDAY** · 03-30-12, 10:26 PM

V, why the fukk were book moving Iaquinta that far?? Was worried they had news of injury or something so I didn't add to my wager. Crazy, unless they were getting pounded with Jury's hype?

Just crazy now looking back.

Did you see that Spladdle in the first round. Love that move in wrestling! Was one of my signatures when someone got a deep single on me, spladle and they're pinned!!!

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

LOL, Adelaide Byrd tried to f*ck up that decision...

haha yeah, beyond amazing!

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

V, why the fukk were book moving Iaquinta that far?? Was worried they had news of injury or something so I didn't add to my wager. Crazy, unless they were getting pounded with Jury's hype?

Just crazy now looking back.

Did you see that Spladdle in the first round. Love that move in wrestling! Was one of my signatures when someone got a deep single on me, spladle and they're pinned!!!

I'd guess the latter...dude has got considerable hype and is a lot more well known then any of the other fighters due to his blogs and association with Lil Heathen and now Alliance. People probably thought that Cruz knew what he was doing with putting Jury against the Number 1 pick as well so had confidence based on Cruz's confidence (which had worked the previous week of course)! After making money from Saunders I was close to just sticking with the Jury play I had, but when I saw Iaquinta talk about how he'd been in fights were he'd faced adversity and still won while Jury had ran through all of his opponents with ease that triggered something and made me reconsider...then seeing tht the odds add gone up to +350 range was the final straw!

ha yeah tht spladdle was crazy, would like to see somebody like Jim Miller in tht situation...probably transition to a sweet leg-lock or calf slicer or something!

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 10:51 PM

Im expecting another inflated line for the next fight, or at least for the public to inflate it!

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 03-30-12, 10:55 PM

Dude, are you still up at 5 AM in the morning for Bellator/TUF?

That's passion right there.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?

Dude, are you still up at 5 AM in the morning for Bellator/TUF?

That's passion right there.

ha yeah... if I didnt stay up I wouldn't of got Iaquinta at +340 and would of just had the Jury play within the parlay! Plus since I came back from Mexico my sleeping pattern has been fuuucked anyway....dont get to sleep till about 2am most nights anyway! Hitting the sack now tho...be up at 1pm for One Fighting!

**BIGDAY** · 03-30-12, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I'd guess the latter...dude has got considerable hype and is a lot more well known then any of the other fighters due to his blogs and association with Lil Heathen and now Alliance. People probably thought that Cruz knew what he was doing with putting Jury against the Number 1 pick as well so had confidence based on Cruz's confidence (which had worked the previous week of course)! After making money from Saunders I was close to just sticking with the Jury play I had, but when I saw Iaquinta talk about how he'd been in fights were he'd faced adversity and still won while Jury had ran through all of his opponents with ease that triggered something and made me reconsider...then seeing tht the odds add gone up to +350 range was the final straw!

ha yeah tht spladdle was crazy, would like to see somebody like Jim Miller in tht situation...probably transition to a sweet leg-lock or calf slicer or something!

See, I think that it could actually be used more often and used with throwing elbows if postitioned correctly. So many situations where fighters will be hanging on a single for ever against the cage, that I think it can be utliazed as it is there for the taking so often. But, that's why I'm not a fighter I guess. lol

**eligibletackle** · 03-31-12, 02:15 AM

Nice call on the spladdle - Joe Daddy had great success w/ it vs. Diaz, in what should go down as the best W of his career, but Jim has 5 rounds of needing to keep Nate down.

Worried about Schaub coming back to opening line #s? I thought -260 was a gift and went overboard, in the sense I liked the value, but also thought arb opportunity would be there by fight time, and that looks like a no

Have you seen anything from Del Rosario that justifies his 2:1 odds vs the seasoned GG ?

<3
- E.T.

**Vaughany** · 03-31-12, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by eligibletackle

Nice call on the spladdle - Joe Daddy had great success w/ it vs. Diaz, in what should go down as the best W of his career, but Jim has 5 rounds of needing to keep Nate down.

Worried about Schaub coming back to opening line #s? I thought -260 was a gift and went overboard, in the sense I liked the value, but also thought arb opportunity would be there by fight time, and that looks like a no

Have you seen anything from Del Rosario that justifies his 2:1 odds vs the seasoned GG ?

<3
- E.T.

Yeah, I think people are questioning Schaub's ability to take a punch now so probably why Rothwell is getting some action.

I'm not sure Del Rosario should be that big a favourite, especially now that it seem Gonzaga has realised that he needs to use his grappling to win fights, and I guess you could question Del Rosarios mental and physical state after that accident he had. Gonzaga has big experience advantage obviously. I'll be playing Gonzaga at +175 or better, waiting to see if it hits +200.

**Vaughany** · 03-31-12, 07:25 AM

Ronda Rousey gets harrassed by Renato Laranja!...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K2Zz19r2DNU