Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 01-11-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

Belfort is training with GSP. But Johnson is training with Evans and a few others. I like Johnson to win this fight.

I'm going to place a large bet on Johnson.

Reach advantage, Age advantage, he's like Belfort when he was younger and in his prime, never been knocked out compared to Belfort who has been.
Belfort only has the home advantage, which is a small factor in MMA compared to team sports.

Johnson looks like a potential future elite fighter like GSP, Silva and Jones.

All depends on Belfort's strategy for me. I like Rumble to win but if Belfort comes out and pushes forward from the start then I think Rumble will be in trouble as he isn't a great counter striker (throws wild hooks which works against likes of Reiner, Speer and Burns but forgetting defence against somebody like Belfort could be dangerous). I'd also like to see Belfort surprise him with a takedown - best way to put Rumble in his discomfort zone would be to put him on his back. Of course it's unlikely that Belfort will look to do this in front of his home crowd and obviously there is no guarantee tht he can take down a decent athletic wrestler in Rumble even if he wanted to (though Rumble's stance and amount of leg/head kicks thrown offer opportunities). But for me the risks in attempting a takedown are quite low for Belfort - not like Rumble is gonna guillotine him or submit/reverse him off his back! At end of the day Rumble is still pretty raw and the only time he's really faced adversity was against Kosheck where he wilted and was choked out.

**GunShard** · 01-11-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

All depends on Belfort's strategy for me. I like Rumble to win but if Belfort comes out and pushes forward from the start then I think Rumble will be in trouble as he isn't a great counter striker (throws wild hooks which works against likes of Reiner, Speer and Burns but forgetting defence against somebody like Belfort could be dangerous). I'd also like to see Belfort surprise him with a takedown - best way to put Rumble in his discomfort zone would be to put him on his back. Of course it's unlikely that Belfort will look to do this in front of his home crowd and obviously there is no guarantee tht he can take down a decent athletic wrestler in Rumble even if he wanted to (though Rumble's stance and amount of leg/head kicks thrown offer opportunities). But for me the risks in attempting a takedown are quite low for Belfort - not like Rumble is gonna guillotine him or submit/reverse him off his back! At end of the day Rumble is still pretty raw and the only time he's really faced adversity was against Kosheck where he wilted and was choked out.

Good points.
It does seem like the most likely outcome of Belfort keeping it standing. I see Johnson taking it down to the ground. I can't remember the last time Belfort was fighting while his back is on the ground.
If the only major loss Johnson had was a submission by Koscheck and Belfort is keeping this standing with less takedown attempts. Sounds like a good situation for Johnson.

**ddream1** · 01-12-12, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

All depends on Belfort's strategy for me. I like Rumble to win but if Belfort comes out and pushes forward from the start then I think Rumble will be in trouble as he isn't a great counter striker (throws wild hooks which works against likes of Reiner, Speer and Burns but forgetting defence against somebody like Belfort could be dangerous). I'd also like to see Belfort surprise him with a takedown - best way to put Rumble in his discomfort zone would be to put him on his back. Of course it's unlikely that Belfort will look to do this in front of his home crowd and obviously there is no guarantee tht he can take down a decent athletic wrestler in Rumble even if he wanted to (though Rumble's stance and amount of leg/head kicks thrown offer opportunities). But for me the risks in attempting a takedown are quite low for Belfort - not like Rumble is gonna guillotine him or submit/reverse him off his back! At end of the day Rumble is still pretty raw and the only time he's really faced adversity was against Kosheck where he wilted and was choked out.

this was a tough fight for me to cap, from all angles i get vitor, AJ has all the potential but im thinking a bit like you that if vitor pushes AJ back its over, AJ has strong wrestling credentials but we really don't ever see it combined with striking and TD set ups, its as he has all the the individual tools on paper and we get to see one of them on any given night, we have yet to really see him combine all those tools into one fight stragedy and domination alla say GSP. i think vitor has the potential to still be explosive with forward motion and power, with that i think he eventually frustrates AJ and takes over, i just don't beleive AJ will execute a TD plan or don't beleive he can carry out a plan of movement and counter striking should he be pushed, i hope im wrong i think we all want this guy to be a great fighter i just think if he doesn't catch vitor early belfort will maul him.

**Vaughany** · 01-12-12, 09:28 AM

UFC 142 plays so far:

Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;

Parlay: 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;

6.47 units on Rumble Johnson by TKO/KO at +315 to win 20.381 units;

1.666 units on Rumble Johnson by Decision at +450 to win 7.497 units;

hedged with:

4 units on Rumble/Belfort To Not Go the Distance at -230 to win 1.739 units;

0.1 units on Belfort by Submission at +1050 to win 1.05 units.

4 units on Palhares by Decision at +388 to win 15.52 units;

7.499 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Not Go the Distance at -166.67 to win 4.499 units;

1.511 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Not Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.259 units;

1.138 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Finish Under 2.5 Rounds at +110 to win 1.252 units;

2.4 units on Massenzio at +425 to win 10.2 units.

6.481 units on Barboza/Etim to Go the Distance at +140 to win 9.073 units;

Parlay: 6.468 units on Johnson/Belfort To Not Start Round 3 (-131), Aldo/Mendes To Start Round 2 (-892), & Evans/Davis To Not Go the Distance (-165) to win 13.904 units.

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-12-12, 09:47 AM

I like the Massenzio play. I am going to be on it as well. Im thinking Paul Harris will end up -700 so I will jump on Massenzio then.

What is your breakdown on Stout/Tavares?

**BIGDAY** · 01-12-12, 09:50 AM

I also added Aldo/Mendes to start rd 2 in a few parlays @ -705 right now at 5d.

**Vaughany** · 01-12-12, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I like the Massenzio play. I am going to be on it as well. Im thinking Paul Harris will end up -700 so I will jump on Massenzio then.

What is your breakdown on Stout/Tavares?

I've only got Massenzio as a semi-hedge to the other plays though. As long as Massenzio doesnt win by decision I'll make profit with any other result at the moment. I'll probably add Palhares Sub of the Night as well

**Vaughany** · 01-12-12, 03:42 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 3.26 units on Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-215), Not Massenzio by Submission (-3250), Not Rumble by Submission (-5040), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Munoz/Sonnen to Go the Distance (-230) to win 4.966 units;

Parlay: 1.63 units on Stout (-120), Palhares/Massenzio to Start Round 2 (-210), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Maia/Bisping to Go the Distance (-210) to win 5.805 units;

Parlay (double): 0.433 units on Belfort by TKO/KO & Aldo by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 4.33 units;

0.89 units on Palhares by Submission at +140 to win 1.246 units;

0.64 units on Tavares/Stout to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +200 to win 1.28 units;

0.722 units on Alcantara by Decision at +175 to win 1.263 units.

**gabe** · 01-12-12, 06:23 PM

You're laggin' with that contest, lil homie!

**Vaughany** · 01-12-12, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by gabe

You're laggin' with that contest, lil homie!

Tomorrow morning will be up!

**bjpenn85** · 01-12-12, 07:31 PM

Hey Vaugh, what is your opinion on Guillard at 2.50? Where do you set the line? I think this will end up at evens...

**Vaughany** · 01-13-12, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Hey Vaugh, what is your opinion on Guillard at 2.50? Where do you set the line? I think this will end up at evens...

See the event thread for my thoughts! I doubt it will get down as far as Evens, maybe late on day of the fight, but I expect Miller to stay between -145 to -185 range. Fact of the matter is that casual bettors will see that Guillard got choked out early by a Lauzon who is probably not quite at the level of Jim Miller so Miller should get some action

**BIGDAY** · 01-13-12, 09:17 AM

Would love to get Miller at -145

**Vaughany** · 01-13-12, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Would love to get Miller at -145

Think he's -140 or -145 on ladbrokes which I'd probably of took but they've limited be to ZERO!

**BIGDAY** · 01-13-12, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Think he's -140 or -145 on ladbrokes which I'd probably of took but they've limited be to ZERO!

Best I can get it at right now is around -180 to -200. It should come down a bit, I think public likes Guillard's style and look for him to bounce back.

**Vaughany** · 01-13-12, 09:53 AM

Adding:

3.594 units on Gonzaga at -110 to win 3.267 units.

Looks like I made right decision taking him when he went down to -110 as money is coming in on him now and is back at -120 to -130 range.

**Vaughany** · 01-13-12, 11:54 AM

Adding:

0.653 units on Palhares/Massenzio to be FOTN at +1200 to win 7.841 units.

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-13-12, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

0.653 units on Palhares/Massenzio to be FOTN at +1200 to win 7.841 units.

I like this play. One must assume that if this stays standing or goes past the first round that both will strike like crazy + Massenzio/Cantwell a fight of the night contender

**hancocks** · 01-13-12, 12:22 PM

Where'd you find FOTN? Can't find on bodog/pinnacle/sportsinteraction/5d o.O

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-13-12, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by hancocks

Where'd you find FOTN? Can't find on bodog/pinnacle/sportsinteraction/5d o.O

Bookmaker has it up

**NunyaBidness** · 01-13-12, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Bookmaker has it up

so does 5d

**Vaughany** · 01-13-12, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by hancocks

Where'd you find FOTN? Can't find on bodog/pinnacle/sportsinteraction/5d o.O

yee sportbet

**Vaughany** · 01-13-12, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I like this play. One must assume that if this stays standing or goes past the first round that both will strike like crazy + Massenzio/Cantwell a fight of the night contender

Yeah at +1200 I'll take it. Palhares is rarely in a boring fight and Massenzio despite getting TKO'd by Dolloway actually is pretty resilient and is aggressive. Aldo/Mendes obviously has to be favourite due to it being 5 rounds and main event - Uncle Dana loves to hand out FOTN to 5 round main events. Will be looking at Barboza/Etim as well when odds are out on Euros sites

**Vitooch** · 01-14-12, 02:08 AM

Why do you like Gonzaga in this matchup? I don't know anything about his opponent besides his less than flattering frame.

**gabe** · 01-14-12, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Why do you like Gonzaga in this matchup? I don't know anything about his opponent besides his less than flattering frame.

I have a nice play on him, and became more confident in it after seeing JDS accompanying him at the weigh-ins. (Re: Edinaldo)

Gonzaga is a "name fighter" who is past his prime that they got as a replacement and Edinaldo is a top prospect. I think Edinaldo should be -185. The line is a steal.

Hate to be going against a dude named Gabe, but oh wells, gotta cash that paper!!!!!!!!!!!

**more_betterness** · 01-14-12, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Why do you like Gonzaga in this matchup? I don't know anything about his opponent besides his less than flattering frame.

Terrible striking technique, zero footwork, chin straight in the air, and questionable takedown defense. More of a fade of Edinaldo than a bet on Gonzaga for me. Hes obviously got length and a bit of pop and Gonzaga isn't exactly a world beater, but I have serious doubts this guy belongs in the UFC.

**gabe** · 01-14-12, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by more_betterness

Terrible striking technique, zero footwork, chin straight in the air, and questionable takedown defense. More of a fade of Edinaldo than a bet on Gonzaga for me. Hes obviously got length and a bit of pop and Gonzaga isn't exactly a world beater, but I have serious doubts this guy belongs in the UFC.

8 of 13 wins via Knockout (and 0 losses) for a BJJ specialist is pretty impressive, IMO.

This dude made Geronimo dos Santos quit!

I think this is gonna be his first win by submission since 2008.

(closes Ednaldo's wiki page)

**more_betterness** · 01-14-12, 03:13 AM

Originally posted by gabe

8 of 13 wins via Knockout (and 0 losses) for a BJJ specialist is pretty impressive, IMO. This dude made Geronimo dos Santos quit! I think this is gonna be his first win by submission since 2008. (closes Ednaldo's wiki page)

Geronimo won the first (and only) round of that fight and quit due to exhaustion, not because of anything Edinaldo did. More embarrassing for Geronimo than anything. And I'll take Gonzaga's experience in losses to high caliber opponents over Oliveira's wins against nobodies on the Brazilian circuit. The last guy he fought was making his MMA debut!

**Vaughany** · 01-14-12, 03:49 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Why do you like Gonzaga in this matchup? I don't know anything about his opponent besides his less than flattering frame.

Originally posted by more_betterness

Terrible striking technique, zero footwork, chin straight in the air, and questionable takedown defense. More of a fade of Edinaldo than a bet on Gonzaga for me. Hes obviously got length and a bit of pop and Gonzaga isn't exactly a world beater, but I have serious doubts this guy belongs in the UFC.

Yeeep pretty much exactly what More-betterness said. More of a fade of Edinaldo than a bet on Gonzaga is the key to this really. Gonzaga has never particularly impressed me, he's pretty slow and cumbersome and not very strategic. Nontheless, he has all the attributes to finish what other much less skilled guys started. As said above, Geronimo took Oliveira down reasonably easily and lay on top of him for a round before gassing out. Grimaldo Oliveira who Edinaldo drew with also had success taking him down but could not do much damage. Edinaldo is also clearly not very thick for a HW which could be problematic for him.

**illmatick** · 01-14-12, 07:19 AM

Gl V.

Did you hit the prater by decision prop? line still dropping.

**Vaughany** · 01-14-12, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Gl V.

Did you hit the prater by decision prop? line still dropping.

I haven't, but have got Fight Starts Round 2 in a couple parlays, and have got risk free arbs on Silva winning by decision and Silva by TKO/KO so don't wanna have to many conflicting plays.

**caveira** · 01-14-12, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

Parlay: 3.26 units on Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-215), Not Massenzio by Submission (-3250), Not Rumble by Submission (-5040), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Munoz/Sonnen to Go the Distance (-230) to win 4.966 units;

Parlay: 1.63 units on Stout (-120), Palhares/Massenzio to Start Round 2 (-210), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Maia/Bisping to Go the Distance (-210) to win 5.805 units;

Parlay (double): 0.433 units on Belfort by TKO/KO & Aldo by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 4.33 units;

0.89 units on Palhares by Submission at +140 to win 1.246 units;

0.64 units on Tavares/Stout to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +200 to win 1.28 units;

0.722 units on Alcantara by Decision at +175 to win 1.263 units.

Pinnacle is offering Tavares/Stout under 2.5 Rounds at +116 by now (just in case you want to arb it).

**Vaughany** · 01-14-12, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by caveira

Pinnacle is offering Tavares/Stout under 2.5 Rounds at +116 by now (just in case you want to arb it).

Cheers for the heads up. I probably won't bother as it's only a small risk on the over and got it at great odds.

**koscheckbaby** · 01-14-12, 02:09 PM

Any concern that Gonzaga is too big a pussy for a tough guy? Sounds like his opponent might be a Brazilian Joey Beltran, since you say he is durable and has good cardio for a HW. Gonzaga flakes out easily. He dominated Fabricio Werdum in their UFC fight, but pussed out the moment Werdum hit back.

**varkolek** · 01-14-12, 02:49 PM

I was watching the match between Gonzaga and Kevin Jordan, and by the second round Gonzaga was too tired to shoot any more. I actually stopped watching at that point and decided not to bet on Gonzaga.

If Edinaldo gets through the first round and Gonzaga gases, Edinaldo could win on points or get a tko with his arm punches.