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Record Review:
Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):
Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units
(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):
UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134: -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units
UFC 138: +57.692 units
UFC on FOX: +5.087 units
Total profit: +445.073 unitsComment -
It's actually quite a bit more than that as I haven't included arbs for past 18 events or so. This weekend might not be a great one to tail - nothing stands out for me really. I've got Kampmann but that is a very close fight. Also got Weidman against Lawler but I got him at much better odds than he's currently at and will probably hedge or arb out of it. And have Faber as part of a parlay. Might look at Bader by decision. Henderson/Shogun FOTN as well as it will be a 5rounder and is main event.Comment -
UFC 139 Plays so far:
44.408 units on Weidman at -280 to win 15.86 units;
10.693 units on Weidman/Lawlor to Go the Distance at -170 to win 6.29 units;
Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;
6.117 units on Kampmann at +115 to win 7.035 units.Last edited by Vaughany; 11-14-11, 11:19 AM.Comment -
Wanderlei Silva UFC 139 camp part 1:
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For anybody backing Kampmann like me, here is a copy of his blog. He mentions tweaking his knee (which he's had 3 surgeries on in past so is clearly an issue, and also how he had flu in October)....Just somethings to consider.....
BLOG
NOVEMBER 10TH 2011
Training is going well. I’m working hard in the gym to get my shape up. I tweaked my knee a little bit which worried me initially but it feels a lot better so things are all good. With only a few weeks to go before my fight at UFC 139 with Rick Story, at this point it’s all about refining my skillset. Now is not the time to learn new moves; it’s time to focus on what I’m good at and sharpen my tools.
Obviously I’m biased on this topic since he’s my teammate at Xtreme Couture but I truly felt Jay Hieron beat Ben Askren last weekend at Bellator 56. At the same, I understand when you’re fighting a champion, especially in his home State, it’s gonna be hard to get the decision to go your way after a close contest. I think the outcome came down to the third round – I think Askren won #2 and #4 and Jay won #1 and #5. However, the third round was definitely close even though I think Jay took it. He may have been taken down but reversed him too and he did better standing, but, again, when you’re fighting the champ in his home State it’s tough to win over the judges’ favor in a close fight.
I’ve spoken some to Jay and, of course, it sucks to lose let alone like that. I’ve been there; a lot of people have been there. And especially when it’s a close fight like that where he knows he got the better of him. In the fifth round he completely dominated and put a beating on Askren. I just wish he could have performed like that in the four rounds prior. I know he wants a rematch but I’m not sure that will happen since Bellator is usually pretty tough on that front. I know Joe Warren has had some close fights too where people felt he shouldn’t have won but they didn’t give those guys rematches so the precedent is already there. I know I personally think he deserves another shot at Askren who himself even said he thought the decision could have gone either way. I’d love to see them fight again since it wasn’t just close but also an exciting fight as well. Good stuff without question.
I didn’t have a chance to see Hieron’s fight live since I was at the Mandalay Bay for UFC 137 but I made sure to stay away from Twitter to avoid results. I went straight home after the show to watch Bellator so it worked out well.
BJ Penn’s fight with Nick Diaz was great and it was cool to be at the show. There was a lot of energy in the arena. You really can’t beat being in attendance at a UFC event. The actual fight went the way I thought it would. I was rooting for BJ to win but I felt like Diaz’s size and pressure would tire BJ out in the later rounds, and it seems like that’s pretty much what happened. BJ won the first round, then he got tired or hurt and couldn’t handle Diaz’s pace. It was a terrific fight though.
I have no idea what Penn will do in the future but I will say I love to watch him fight, and I think he is still competitive at either 170 or 155 pounds. At the end of the day it’s up to him, and if he doesn’t have the fire anymore then he shouldn’t fight anymore, but if he still has it in him there are a lot of people who love seeing him in action and I’m one of them.
Finally, in case you’re wondering, my Halloween was actually pretty laid back. I pretty much trained and relaxed at home. I would have normally gone out but I’m 100% focused on my fight and Monday is a training night at Xtreme Couture. I’ll save my celebrating for the night of November 19th.
OCTOBER 26TH 2011
Training camp is going well. I was out for a couple of days with the flu though it’s better to get a little sick now than get it right before the fight. I have been training my butt off lately and now I’m really starting to get in great shape! I’m doing kickboxing with Ray Sefo in the mornings three days a week and I’m starting to feel sharp. I haven’t been very lucky with the decisions in my last fights so this time I’m not looking to go the distance. Knockout or submission, either way I’m coming in to finish the fight because I’m tired of judges giving me the short end of the stick.Comment -
Thanks!
I caught that in the video interview you shared yesterday.
A weak knee will affect his TDD -- no doubt about that.Comment -
Keen observations regarding those issues V. Thanks.Comment -
Hey Vaughany what are your thoughts on the Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva fight? I haven't seen Cung Le fight since he beat Shamrock. So I have no idea if he's ready for the Axe Murderer. On the other hand Silva looked really old in his last fight but I know anybody could get knocked out trying to go toe to toe with Chris Leben.Comment -
Opps nevermind... I read what you had to say about that fight in the other thread. Might just wait and live bet on that fight after I get a feel of whats going on in the first round. I like your bet on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. I'm probably gonna put a decent sized bet on him too.Comment -
Too many variables really - if I did bet I'd take Wanderlei at +120 dog or better - but that is relying on Wanderlei being smart and using Cung's kicks to get the takedown and use his ground game - which is an unlikely expectation. I'm also not convinced that Wanderlei suddenly has a "glass chin" after that Leben KO. No doubt he isn't anywhere near as durable as he used to be but I don't think he should be written off completely quite yet - many made the same mistake with Big Nog before the Schaub fight and look how tht turned out. I do think that both have a chance of getting KO of the Night though which may be the best value playComment -
The Canchez vs Kampmann fight if anybody wants to view it again...
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V thoughts on RDA/Tibau
SEth/Brown
I grabbed both dogs.
RDA should be able to mimics Pelligrinos and Millers gameplan and keep this standing
Seth is decent enough to get this to the ground but brown should have his way sstandingComment -
Both fights are very tough to call, but I'd agree it's probably best to stake same amount on both dogs, I'd be surprised if at least one of the two doesnt win which will mean you will make profit.
Im sure many will argue that Matt Brown shouldnt be a favourite against anybody in the division. Bascynski should have a size advantage but Brown's takedown defence isn't bad as he showed against Howard. One of the things to consider in this is that both guys are extremely tough and durable which means there is a strong chance of it going the distance. Brown isn't a one punch guy, he throws combinations, at least a higher volume than Seth which will look good in the judges eyes. And although he sub defence is questionable, against Wilks he showed that it isn't a certainty that he'll get submitted if he does get in to a bad position.
RDA and Tibau is also really hard to call, RDA has all the tools to get the upset - just depends on how much top control Tibau can get. Again you may well end up dicing with the judges' death as I think this goes the distance and could be very close.Comment -
Adding:
2.263 units on Shogun/Hendo to Go Over 1.5 Rnds at -175 to win 1.293 units;
3.78 units on Wanderlei/Cung Le to End by KO at +170 to win 6.426 units;
0.533 units on Wanderlei Silva by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.332 units;
1.302 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at Evens to win 1.302 units;
1.559 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.299 units;
0.747 units on Faber by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;
0.79 units on Faber by Decision at +162.5 to win 1.284 units;
2.413 units on Story/Kampmann to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.287 units;
0.533 units on Kampmann by Decision at +250 to win 1.332 units;
0.234 units on Story by TKO/KO at +600 to win 1.404 units.Last edited by Vaughany; 11-17-11, 08:27 AM.Comment -
Hi Vaughany,
PaddyPower rocks in terms of value in props. Which other books do you like to find really solid value in props?Comment -
Just Paddy in Europe really. You'll find ladbrokes, william hill and sportingbet have less and at poor value. They all limit you to less than £10 bets anyway as soon as you make treble figures!Comment -
Another funny Chael interview...he's turning in to quite the actor!
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Don't like that douche reporting him...He has a radio voice on TVComment -
the guy asking those questions is a total idiot. He was fumbling words and trying to lead into loaded questions while chael was answering a different question. I don't even like Sonnen, but I can see why he was so aggravated here.Comment -
Funny thing is that Chael was clearly acting and playing the whole heel character thing, but then seemed to get genuinely pissed off!Comment -
yeah, at the beginning chael was acting out, but the guy asking the questions started off on the wrong foot with his aggressive wording. From that moment on they were just going back and forth getting nowhere. It's the interviewers job to gain control even if that means he has to submit, but this guy was in left field the whole time and couldn't regain his composure.Comment -
he method acted his ass out of that interview.Comment -
That interview was painful to watch in the 2nd half... was that reality tv? The interviewer irks me to no end... he should go to radio.Comment -
I think we all agree when I say that was one horrible interview. Not a huge fan of Sonnen, but I'm with him here.Comment -
i`m beginning to wonder whether bonnar might be able to outlast kingsbury in a crazy,hard fight....having all that muscle isn`t necessarily a good thing in that type of fight(and it should be nuts)...Comment -
I have parlays from months ago that has Kampmann in it. I hope he wins it.Comment
