Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**bjpenn85** · 11-10-11, 11:47 AM

cheers brotha!

**more_betterness** · 11-10-11, 04:55 PM

Vaughany, what do you think of Semerzier vs Peralta? I haven't seen enough of Peralta to feel comfortable with a pick against him yet, but from what i've seen he keeps a pretty low pace despite having clean technique and great leg kicks. I also noticed that he tends to back straight up when avoiding punches rather than cutting angles. In my opinion Mackens takes this with a higher workrate and volume of strikes coupled with a few takedowns but I'm not totally sold yet.

**Vaughany** · 11-10-11, 05:09 PM

Yeah I like Semerzier by decision but it will be tight - odds are about right I think

**TheCalculator** · 11-10-11, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by more_betterness

Vaughany, what do you think of Semerzier vs Peralta? I haven't seen enough of Peralta to feel comfortable with a pick against him yet, but from what i've seen he keeps a pretty low pace despite having clean technique and great leg kicks. I also noticed that he tends to back straight up when avoiding punches rather than cutting angles. In my opinion Mackens takes this with a higher workrate and volume of strikes coupled with a few takedowns but I'm not totally sold yet.

Could go either way. Peralta's more mature and refined in his skills. Semerzier is more aggressive. Should be an interesting battle. Too even for me.

**Vitooch** · 11-10-11, 05:29 PM

Show caution in laying money down Semerzier.

He looked good in his UFC but beating Bruce Lee Roy isn't exactly a monumental feat.

Remember Semerzier entered the UFC with a 3 fight loss streak in the WEC.

**more_betterness** · 11-10-11, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Show caution in laying money down Semerzier.

He looked good in his UFC but beating Bruce Lee Roy isn't exactly a monumental feat.

Remember Semerzier entered the UFC with a 3 fight loss streak in the WEC.

I still think he got the wrong side of the Swanson decision.

**Vaughany** · 11-11-11, 04:38 AM

Adding:

1.667 units on Velasquez/Dos Santos FOTN at +300 to win 5.001 units.

As long as this fight doesnt end early I'm pretty confident Dana is going be giving this FOTN. Guida/Henderson is an obvious challenger but with all the hype of the main event and it being the only televised fight you have to think that Dana will be throwing out whatever awards he can to Cain and/or JDS. If either wins by TKO or Sub you can be assured that they will get that bonus

**BIGDAY** · 11-11-11, 08:18 AM

completely agree. If this fight is remotely entertaining and gets to round 3. He's almost got to.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

1.667 units on Velasquez/Dos Santos FOTN at +300 to win 5.001 units.

As long as this fight doesnt end early I'm pretty confident Dana is going be giving this FOTN. Guida/Henderson is an obvious challenger but with all the hype of the main event and it being the only televised fight you have to think that Dana will be throwing out whatever awards he can to Cain and/or JDS. If either wins by TKO or Sub you can be assured that they will get that bonus

**Vaughany** · 11-11-11, 09:00 AM

UFC on FOX plays:

10 units on Velasquez at -140 to win 7.143 units;

Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;

20.394 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -210 to win 9.711 units;

2.424 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.293 units;

Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units;

Parlay: 1.255 units on Escovedo (-260), DaMarques Johnson (-260), & Not Dos Santos by Submission (-1580) to win 1.303 units;

1.667 units on Velasquez/Dos Santos FOTN at +300 to win 5.001 units;

0.298 units on Henderson/Guida FOTN at +450 to win 1.341 units;

0.1 units on Ben Henderson SOTN at +550 to win 0.55 units;

0.234 units on DaMarques Johnson SOTN at +550 to win 1.287 units.

**Vitooch** · 11-11-11, 03:28 PM

Wow! You're really pushing for Bendo/Guida not inside the distance...Hoping you're wrong

**Vaughany** · 11-11-11, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Wow! You're really pushing for Bendo/Guida not inside the distance...Hoping you're wrong

As long as Guida doesnt win inside distance I'm good.

**Vitooch** · 11-11-11, 04:20 PM

You have a better chance of growing a third nut out of your face....

I would be elated if Bendo gets this sub, but if he wins SU I'm good as well.

**rocky mattioli** · 11-11-11, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

completely agree. If this fight is remotely entertaining and gets to round 3. He's almost got to.

at +300 also,imo,it would be wise to put something on guida/henderson.....i suspect that the transitions in this fight are gonna be wild,early and often...think huerta/guida...

i`m probably playing both small....i think the odds of one of the two top billers being fotn are solid....

**Vaughany** · 11-12-11, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

at +300 also,imo,it would be wise to put something on guida/henderson.....i suspect that the transitions in this fight are gonna be wild,early and often...think huerta/guida...

i`m probably playing both small....i think the odds of one of the two top billers being fotn are solid....

Yeah I've hedged it with Guida/Henderson FOTN. Garza/Poirier could also be very entertaining tho!

**bogbat** · 11-12-11, 05:31 AM

Europeans have the best betting options. It's impossible to use betting strategies like Vaughany if you live in the states.

**Eccocide** · 11-12-11, 10:08 AM

Like most of what you got there V. GL tonight.

**Vaughany** · 11-12-11, 10:24 AM

Adding:

1.045 units on Semerzier/Peralta to Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.306 units;

0.198 units on Ben Henderson SOTN at +450 to win 0.891 units.

**Vaughany** · 11-12-11, 03:25 PM

Adding:

0.622 units on Henderson SOTN at +550 to win 3.421 units.

**Vaughany** · 11-12-11, 05:00 PM

Summary of UFC on FOX plays:

10 units on Velasquez at -140 to win 7.143 units;

Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;

20.394 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -210 to win 9.711 units;

2.424 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.293 units;

Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units;

Parlay: 1.255 units on Escovedo (-260), DaMarques Johnson (-260), & Not Dos Santos by Submission (-1580) to win 1.303 units;

1.667 units on Velasquez/Dos Santos FOTN at +300 to win 5.001 units;

0.298 units on Henderson/Guida FOTN at +450 to win 1.341 units;

0.1 units on Ben Henderson SOTN at +550 to win 0.55 units;

0.622 units on Henderson SOTN at +550 to win 3.421 units;

0.198 units on Ben Henderson SOTN at +450 to win 0.891 units;

0.234 units on DaMarques Johnson SOTN at +550 to win 1.287 units;

1.045 units on Semerzier/Peralta to Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.306 units.

Also got some risk-free arbs in the Pacquiao/Marques and Bradley/Casamayor fights, and got Pierce at +250 arbed with Bradley at +281!

GL all!

**urge2kill** · 11-12-11, 05:06 PM

Damn, Pierce at +250 is sick

**Vaughany** · 11-12-11, 08:20 PM

William Hill settled the Pierce bet so made a nice 100 units off that!

:

**Vaughany** · 11-12-11, 10:16 PM

UFC on FOX Review:

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC on FOX plays:

10 units on Velasquez at -140 to win 7.143 units;

Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;

20.394 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -210 to win 9.711 units;

2.424 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.293 units;

Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units;

Parlay: 1.255 units on Escovedo (-260), DaMarques Johnson (-260), & Not Dos Santos by Submission (-1580) to win 1.303 units;

1.667 units on Velasquez/Dos Santos FOTN at +300 to win 5.001 units;

0.298 units on Henderson/Guida FOTN at +450 to win 1.341 units;

0.1 units on Ben Henderson SOTN at +550 to win 0.55 units;

0.622 units on Henderson SOTN at +550 to win 3.421 units;

0.198 units on Ben Henderson SOTN at +450 to win 0.891 units;

0.234 units on DaMarques Johnson SOTN at +550 to win 1.287 units;

1.045 units on Semerzier/Peralta to Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.306 units.

Also got some risk-free arbs in the Pacquiao/Marques and Bradley/Casamayor fights, and got Pierce at +250 arbed with Bradley at +281!

GL all!

Total Risk: 44.613 units

Return: 49.7 units

Profit: +5.087 units

Awesome night for me thanks to Henderson getting the decision and the 100 units I made on Pierce also helped! Would of hedged the Velasquez play with Dos Santos KO of the Night at +450 had I not had the Pierce/Bradley arb and boxing arbs which I knew was going to give me profit no matter what. Should end up with about 115 to 125 units profit for the night after the Tim Bradley and Pacquiao fights.

And still have the following couple of parlays going strong after Henderson's win:

Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units.

**SharpBoxing** · 11-12-11, 11:29 PM

what did you bet on the Bradley and Pac fights?

**NunyaBidness** · 11-13-11, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

William Hill settled the Pierce bet so made a nice 100 units off that!

:

Congrats! I'm moving to the UK ASAP.

**Vaughany** · 11-13-11, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by SharpBoxing

what did you bet on the Bradley and Pac fights?

I had Bradley by TKO/KO at +137.5 arbed with Not Bradley by TKO/KO ranging from +105 to +148. Made 12.827 units from that. Then had similar plays involving Pacquaio, but as he won by decision didnt make as much... 3.45 units.

**Poppa Catfish** · 11-13-11, 03:35 AM

What were the odds on Mexican fans crying all night long into their tequila?

Rough night for my AKA compadre. God that guy has such a glass temple.

**Vaughany** · 11-13-11, 03:38 AM

**Poppa Catfish** · 11-13-11, 03:59 AM

I'm curious what you made of Bruce LeRoy's performance tonight. On one hand I was impressed big time with his composure, plus some of his techniques looked effortless, on the other hand he made all these egregious errors, like not shifting his weight on that omoplata at all, or gift wrapping his back. Did he turn the corner or what? How much of this is his growth as a fighter, how much is it just regression in opponents.

Maybe Chairib can shed some light on the subject. I better switch over to that gimmick account now....

**Vaughany** · 11-13-11, 12:21 PM

haha JDS had an injury going in to the fight as well afterall!...

**Firefox14** · 11-13-11, 01:20 PM

Vaughany,

With your success at MMA, how have you not been limited in the past year? Are you betting low stakes, or just have a knack for disguising your profits?

**Vaughany** · 11-13-11, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Firefox14

Vaughany,

With your success at MMA, how have you not been limited in the past year? Are you betting low stakes, or just have a knack for disguising your profits?

Yep, I have been limited to very small amounts by most of the main Euro books - Paddypower, Skybet, Ladbrokes and Sportingbet. And will probably be limited by William Hill now after the Pierce bet.

**Vaughany** · 11-13-11, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by Poppa Catfish

I'm curious what you made of Bruce LeRoy's performance tonight. On one hand I was impressed big time with his composure, plus some of his techniques looked effortless, on the other hand he made all these egregious errors, like not shifting his weight on that omoplata at all, or gift wrapping his back. Did he turn the corner or what? How much of this is his growth as a fighter, how much is it just regression in opponents.

Maybe Chairib can shed some light on the subject. I better switch over to that gimmick account now....

Yeah he looked great in comparison to previous fights. But then Cole Escovedo looked terrible and was clearly a step-down from Semerzier. The move to BW is clearly going to help him as well. With all the high volume/flashy striking he is going to get favourable decisions as well as long as he's not facing a wrestler with stifling top-control - which there aren't many of in the BW division. And yeah his omoplata attempt wasn't very fluid, almost seemed like he did because he thought he had to without really knowing how to be clinical with it (if that makes sense!)...but then Escovedo isn't exactly mediocre on the ground, despite clearly not being a UFC level fighter. I do think a decent grappler will be able to take advantage of his wildness and choke him out tho, similarly to what Semerzier did.

**dww123** · 11-13-11, 05:40 PM

how much is 1 unit?

**TheCalculator** · 11-13-11, 09:38 PM

Congrats on your success!

Hope to reach your level one day.

**Vaughany** · 11-14-11, 03:55 AM

Originally posted by dww123

how much is 1 unit?

£10

Originally posted by TheCalculator

Congrats on your success!

Hope to reach your level one day.