Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 09-26-11, 05:57 PM

Some useful insight in to Imperial Athletics... Rashad, Guillard, Rumble, Jorge Santiago, Tyrone Sprong & Menace Johnson's camp...

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**terpkeg** · 09-26-11, 06:06 PM

Hey Vaughany, You don't receive PMs. You have an email address I can hit u on? You can send me a PM if you are allowed to do that.

**Chairib** · 09-26-11, 06:12 PM

terpkeg stop sending people pictures of your junk

**terpkeg** · 09-26-11, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

terpkeg stop sending people pictures of your junk

I figured you would like a good dic pic.

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Hey Vaughany, You don't receive PMs. You have an email address I can hit u on? You can send me a PM if you are allowed to do that.

Yeah they took away my PM's because I gave out my email address before! Apparently SBR dont like you discussing "personal business". I'll try and get it back up and running today

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 02:27 AM

UFC Versus 6 Play:

10 units on Rumble Johnson at -183 to win 5.464 units.

**ExodusNZ** · 09-27-11, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC Versus 6 Play:

10 units on Rumble Johnson at -183 to win 5.464 units.

Hey mate, where did you play this ?

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 03:02 AM

Originally posted by ExodusNZ

Hey mate, where did you play this ?

Pinnacle

**more_betterness** · 09-27-11, 03:18 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC Versus 6 Play: 10 units on Rumble Johnson at -183 to win 5.464 units.

With you on this one...

Brenneman generally relies on flurries of punches to get inside and set up his takedowns, something I don't think he will be able to do very well with Rumble's reach and long jab. I can't discredit the guys tenacity though, watching him swinging for the fences after getting rocked multiple times by Hendricks sold me as a fan.

I'd take Rumble up until around -210... Now I just gotta wait for 5dimes to put the line out

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 03:50 AM

Originally posted by more_betterness

With you on this one...

Brenneman generally relies on flurries of punches to get inside and set up his takedowns, something I don't think he will be able to do very well with Rumble's reach and long jab. I can't discredit the guys tenacity though, watching him swinging for the fences after getting rocked multiple times by Hendricks sold me as a fan.

I'd take Rumble up until around -210... Now I just gotta wait for 5dimes to put the line out

Yeah and Rumble is finally in a settled camp. He was roaming around drifting between different places before the Hardy fight after becoming disillusioned with Cung Le's camp which presented him with no decent sparring partners or challenges. Now he's with Van Arsdale and a part of the Blackzillians at Imperial Athletics working with likes of Spong, Cosmo Alexander, Rashad, Guillard, Jorge Santiago, and Michael Johnson day in day out. I think we'll see Rumble in beast mode against Brenneman. The fact that they are being taught Dutch kickboxing and working a lot on the clinch is going to help against a guy like Brenneman who is constantly going to be trying to take Johnson down.

**bjpenn85** · 09-27-11, 03:55 AM

i thought guillard was at greg jacksons?

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

i thought guillard was at greg jacksons?

He left and joined Rashad with the Blackzillians! Probably didnt want a similar situation to what Rashad had with Jones with Guida and Cerrone

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 04:08 AM

Adding:

Parlay (double): 10 units on Rumble Johnson (-150) & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units.

**bjpenn85** · 09-27-11, 04:09 AM

sounds like a good idea. No need for the corny bald man anymore. Is guillard nr.1 in your book vaug?

**bjpenn85** · 09-27-11, 04:09 AM

and as i said that a new bet was made on guillard.....

**more_betterness** · 09-27-11, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding: Parlay (double): 10 units on Rumble Johnson (-150) & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units.

Rumble at -150 now?! Now you're just showing off...

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

sounds like a good idea. No need for the corny bald man anymore. Is guillard nr.1 in your book vaug?

Number 1 contender? If he beats Lauzon which of course he should, I think it is between him and Benson Henderson.

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 04:15 AM

Originally posted by more_betterness

Rumble at -150 now?! Now you're just showing off...

Sportingbet.com just released him at -150. Hopefully get a risk free arb if it stays like that for long enough

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 04:17 AM

Im surprised the line on Pinnacle has improved for Rumble, now at -176. I thought it would go to -200 or something. Still expect him to end up -225 to -250 favourite by fight night. Guess people might be waiting until after the weigh-ins to see what condition Rumble is in.

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 06:32 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Sportingbet.com just released him at -150. Hopefully get a risk free arb if it stays like that for long enough

Just put another 100 units on Rumble at -150. Expect to get Brenneman at +175 or better by fight time

**BIGDAY** · 09-27-11, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Im surprised the line on Pinnacle has improved for Rumble, now at -176. I thought it would go to -200 or something. Still expect him to end up -225 to -250 favourite by fight night. Guess people might be waiting until after the weigh-ins to see what condition Rumble is in.

Yep, one would think he should have his weight and cut figured out by now...

GL with the wager

**Vaughany** · 09-27-11, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Yep, one would think he should have his weight and cut figured out by now...

GL with the wager

Especially now that he's at a proper gym and has Van Arsdale behind him.

**BIGDAY** · 09-27-11, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Especially now that he's at a proper gym and has Van Arsdale behind him.

Like him and Wiman to raise their hands on Saturday

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 05:48 AM

Adding:

6.382 units on Rumble/Brenneman to Go the Distance at Evens to win 6.382 units;

1.596 units on Barry/Struve to Go the Distance at +240 to win 3.829 units.

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by Cap dat 4ss

Vaughany

Great night. Great thread as well. I've followed your pics and thread for quite some time and have always enjoyed it. However, guys like me are better suited for PT and wouldn't want to mess up an actual good thread here at SBR by bringing out PT antics with us. Keep up the nice work.

ha Appreciated!

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 10:37 AM

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Just put another 100 units on Rumble at -150. Expect to get Brenneman at +175 or better by fight time

As expected, Brenneman now at +185 on 5dimes/Sportbet and Pinnacle. Gonna be greedy and wait for it to hit at least +200, which I expect it will after Johnson by TKO/KO comes out and Rumbles weighs in at 171.

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 02:53 PM

**bjpenn85** · 09-28-11, 03:02 PM

what do you mean? why do you expekt more plays on johnsen when tko get released...are they linked?

**Vitooch** · 09-28-11, 03:19 PM

I'm really liking your picks so far, but there is one I'm curious about.

I can't for the life of me see Struve/Barry going to decision. Both guys rarely leave the fight in the hands of the judges.

But what do I know, I'm merely a beginner and you seemed to have made big bucks betting on MMA.

**bjpenn85** · 09-28-11, 03:37 PM

its a value play. nobody sees this going the distance.

**NunyaBidness** · 09-28-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

its a value play. nobody sees this going the distance.

Then where is the value?

**bjpenn85** · 09-28-11, 04:21 PM

ask vaug. i dont think this fight goes the distance at all...

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

what do you mean? why do you expekt more plays on johnsen when tko get released...are they linked?

Well I expect that some people are thinking that Rumble is very unlikely to win by submission so are waiting for Rumble by TKO/KO at better odds rather than Rumble inside distance. If 100 people max out on a bet on Rumble to win by TKO/KO the TKO/KO line would get worse and it's still action on Rumble so the Brenneman line would improve. Obviously Johnson will get more action straight up after the weigh-ins as well when he makes weight (which he will because he's kept his weight under 200lbs since the Hardy fight for the first time in his career).

**Vaughany** · 09-28-11, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I'm really liking your picks so far, but there is one I'm curious about.

I can't for the life of me see Struve/Barry going to decision. Both guys rarely leave the fight in the hands of the judges.

But what do I know, I'm merely a beginner and you seemed to have made big bucks betting on MMA.

Originally posted by bjpenn85

its a value play. nobody sees this going the distance.

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Then where is the value?

BJ is correct, it's a value play and only a small play. I was expecting it to be +225 so couldn't resist a small play at +240. It also others more options with hedging in case I play Barry KO of the Night or Struve Sub of the Night (or both for that matter). How many people expected Hunt to decision Rothwell? There are a few factors that make me think this Barry/Struve fight has a reasonable chance of going the distance:

A) These two are buddies and we all know how non-clinical Barry can be at the best of times
B) Struve has said he plans to use his reach more effectively and not get caught up in a slugfest, I'd lean to believing this as he needs a win badly and surely even he and is coaches are now fully aware that his major defensive deficiencies just aren't sustainable
C) Struve can take a beating, and a lot of his fights have ended inside the distance because his opponent has gone to the ground after either taking Struve down or more often after knocking Struve down. I'm very sure that Barry won't be taking Struve down, and I'm quite confident that even if Struve get's knocked down, Barry will be hesitant to follow him to the ground. I think Barry will be concentrating on leg-kicks rather than trying to reach Struve with punches.