Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Vaughany · 08-31-11, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

i hear you...i thought the same when jackson fought machida....

Yeah but tht was 3 rnds, this a a 5 rnder and he's facing a guy that's not going to just stand with him like Machida did for majority of fight.

BIGDAY · 08-31-11, 11:45 AM

Vaughany, Do do you see any lines for Hughes by sub? All I have right now is Hughes inside the dist around +775 probably going to move past +800 by fight night. Hughes is getting crafty in his old age and I think if he wins it will be by sub. Otherwise i see Canchez getting a dec. Wondering what Hughes's sub line will be for possible hedge? Thanks in advnace.

Vaughany · 08-31-11, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Vaughany, Do do you see any lines for Hughes by sub? All I have right now is Hughes inside the dist around +775 probably going to move past +800 by fight night. Hughes is getting crafty in his old age and I think if he wins it will be by sub. Otherwise i see Canchez getting a dec. Wondering what Hughes's sub line will be for possible hedge? Thanks in advnace.

No not out anywhere yet, Sanchez is always gonna be difficult to submit, I guess at +1000 or something it may be worth a play

BIGDAY · 08-31-11, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

No not out anywhere yet, Sanchez is always gonna be difficult to submit, I guess at +1000 or something it may be worth a play

Rock on, Old man Hughes will not be able to grind out a dec against Sanchez imo. Only way Hughes wins is catching him. GL

Chairib · 08-31-11, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

No not out anywhere yet, Sanchez is always gonna be difficult to submit, I guess at +1000 or something it may be worth a play

I don't know if the issue is difficulty but rather it's just a lot easier to take him down and turn into a game of maintaining position for the win. Especially when you've got top position on him. Why go for a sub, giving him a possible chance for an escape, especially if you're a better wrestler and can just hold him down.

Matt needs to do what any fighter who goes up against Diego needs to do: keep it from turning it into a brawl.

Beelzebubzy · 09-01-11, 09:04 AM

Can diego finish Hughes?

Headkick or bum rush clay guida upper cut style?

Vaughany · 09-01-11, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Can diego finish Hughes?

Headkick or bum rush clay guida upper cut style?

Yeah I think his best chance would be to swarm him early like he did against Guida

BIGDAY · 09-01-11, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah I think his best chance would be to swarm him early like he did against Guida

Yep, I see Diego swarming Hughes the whole fight to be honest. Hughes backpeddles well and may attempt a shot or two. but really when was the last fight that he was taking someone down at will? He resently has caught someone then went to the ground.

But I've been wrong before.

Just how I see it.

BIGDAY · 09-01-11, 10:27 AM

Matt Serra is the last time that Hughes took someone down at will and controled a ground game. IMO Sanchez has better standup and takedown defense than Serra. As for the Hedge with Hughes inside the dist, I just see him as one of those fighters with underrated subs. GL

Chairib · 09-01-11, 11:07 PM

Mark's wrestling and stand up are both pretty average. Is he a better striker than Serra? That's very debatable. Serra's got way more behind his right hand than Sanchez has in any of his strikes combined. His ground game is probably his strongest skill set.

In fights where he's facing a better wrestler or striker, he hopes to brawl rather than fight. He'll just wade right in and try to exchange. Sometimes that works and he'll finish the fight quick like he did against Joe Riggs, or maybe he'll get squeak out a split decision victory with the Kampman and Guida fights.

Other times, he'll just get stuffed which is what happened against Fitch and Kos. Both those guys were able to take him down with relative ease and grind out a decision win. Of course this strategy proved to be a recipe for total disaster when he faced BJ Penn. He couldn't get a takedown and couldn't come close landing anything on his feet.

Vulcan300 · 09-02-11, 09:59 AM

hey vaughany do you use bookmaker? and also when you have 'not diaz by decision', what's the value in that instead of using GSP SU in a parlay?

Vaughany · 09-02-11, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Vulcan300

hey vaughany do you use bookmaker? and also when you have 'not diaz by decision', what's the value in that instead of using GSP SU in a parlay?

Yeah use bookmaker but only when they release opening lines. Mostly use Sportbet though.

Well, Not Diaz by decision means I'll still win even if Diaz wins inside the distance which I think is his only hope.

BIGDAY · 09-02-11, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Chairib

Mark's wrestling and stand up are both pretty average. Is he a better striker than Serra? That's very debatable. Serra's got way more behind his right hand than Sanchez has in any of his strikes combined. His ground game is probably his strongest skill set.

In fights where he's facing a better wrestler or striker, he hopes to brawl rather than fight. He'll just wade right in and try to exchange. Sometimes that works and he'll finish the fight quick like he did against Joe Riggs, or maybe he'll get squeak out a split decision victory with the Kampman and Guida fights.

Other times, he'll just get stuffed which is what happened against Fitch and Kos. Both those guys were able to take him down with relative ease and grind out a decision win. Of course this strategy proved to be a recipe for total disaster when he faced BJ Penn. He couldn't get a takedown and couldn't come close landing anything on his feet.

I'm confused. Are you talking about Matt or Diego here? Problem is, they've probably had a lot of the same competition.

BIGDAY · 09-02-11, 10:32 AM

Regarless, Hughes has won inside the dist a far share and is a good hedge at +800 if you are on Sanchez -210 imo. GL everyone.

Vulcan300 · 09-02-11, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah use bookmaker but only when they release opening lines. Mostly use Sportbet though.

Well, Not Diaz by decision means I'll still win even if Diaz wins inside the distance which I think is his only hope.

how's bookmaker in general? yea definitely been looking for a book just to get in on early lines. not sure how soon i'll open it but if i do, i'll ask you then for your email if you want me to use you as a referral. been following your thread so it's the least i can do.

how big of a % do you have diaz winning on the inside? i'm sure GSP in a big parlay is relatively safe?

omalley21 · 09-02-11, 11:08 AM

Mark sanchez, jets qb, hughes would destroy him. But seriously, I think hughes by decision is much more likely than hughes inside the distance. Diego has never been finished.

sirchadwick1 · 09-02-11, 11:19 AM

Diego is tough as hell to finish and he'll keep on fighting regardless of how hamburgered up he is.

You have to either take Diego straight up or go w/ Hughes via decision here. I still like Diego at the current price.

Vaughany · 09-03-11, 03:44 AM

Crazy grappling...

ddream1 · 09-03-11, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Crazy grappling...

wow, thats great stuff, my fav part around 4:40 mark when he hand stands out of the arm bar

Chairib · 09-03-11, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

I'm confused. Are you talking about Matt or Diego here? Problem is, they've probably had a lot of the same competition.

Obviously I'm talking about Sanchez. Hughes' striking and wrestling are significantly better than Diego's. Sanchez is younger and has a better chin, but skill and strength wise Matt's got him beat. And other than Penn and Riggs, Hughes has not only faced more guys but the level of competition is significantly higher.

My question about Matt is how much he actually wants this fight. There are plenty of times when he's gone through the motions simply showing up for a paycheck. His first fight with Penn as well as with Thiago are great examples of that. If so, then Diego is going to win. But if he's taking this seriously, then Hughes by decision.

Vaughany · 09-03-11, 11:25 AM

Vaughany · 09-03-11, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Chairib

Obviously I'm talking about Sanchez. Hughes' striking and wrestling are significantly better than Diego's. Sanchez is younger and has a better chin, but skill and strength wise Matt's got him beat. And other than Penn and Riggs, Hughes has not only faced more guys but the level of competition is significantly higher.

My question about Matt is how much he actually wants this fight. There are plenty of times when he's gone through the motions simply showing up for a paycheck. His first fight with Penn as well as with Thiago are great examples of that. If so, then Diego is going to win. But if he's taking this seriously, then Hughes by decision.

Key point in bold

Have to question Matt's desire at this point in his career. I don't doubt that he still as a winner's attitude that he's always had, but you have to think that he's looking at guys like Lytle and thinking of following. Maybe he's thinking he wants to spend more time with his family and going hunting! Who knows, but point is tht facing a relentless dude like Diego who is re-energised and re-dedicated is a tough prospect when your heart is not totally in it. I agree though that Hughes is still better striker and wrestler tho

Chairib · 09-03-11, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Key point in bold

Have to question Matt's desire at this point in his career. I don't doubt that he still as a winner's attitude that he's always had, but you have to think that he's looking at guys like Lytle and thinking of following. Maybe he's thinking he wants to spend more time with his family and going hunting! Who knows, but point is tht facing a relentless dude like Diego who is re-energised and re-dedicated is a tough prospect when your heart is not totally in it. I agree though that Hughes is still better striker and wrestler tho

This is the last fight on his current UFC contract so retirement is a very real possibility. This could be his last MMA fight ever, and I think that's a great source of motivation for him. Specifically, I don't think he wants to go out a loser.

Those pictures are really interesting. First off, he's back training with Jeremy Horn which hasn't been the case for a couple of years, not since he moved to the HIT Squad. And training with BJ? That's not the action of someone who looking to coast by in his last fight. He going up against guys who can really push him.

Forget about going for the decision, I think Matt's going to make him tap out. So if anything, you might have to worry about him being overly aggressive, trying too hard to make every moment matter in there.

I

BIGDAY · 09-03-11, 11:02 PM

Hughes inside the dist at +800 odds is worth the risk imo. However I am using that wager as a hedge. GL

Vaughany · 09-04-11, 05:19 AM

Adding:

Parlay (double): 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), & Mark Munoz (-188.5) to win 9.167 units.

Ladle · 09-04-11, 10:35 AM

Hughes' striking and wrestling are significantly better than Diego's.

I agree that Hughes' wrestling is significantly better, but his striking is worse. Sanchez, while relatively limited in that he throws the same one-two and one-two-headkick combo endlessly, is still smoother and cleaner on the feet.

omalley21 · 09-05-11, 09:25 AM

Diego said that hughes will gas in the high altitude in denver. I like Diego by tko.

hawtshawt · 09-05-11, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

Parlay (double): 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), & Mark Munoz (-188.5) to win 9.167 units.

Looks good man!

Vaughany · 09-05-11, 03:51 PM

Would appear Sanchez has pulled out anyway now!

Vaughany · 09-05-11, 04:49 PM

Chairib · 09-05-11, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Would appear Sanchez has pulled out anyway now!

It'll be interesting to see if Hughes agrees to fight Kos. The UFC has been trying to set up Hughes with either Kos or Fitch for a while but Matt has been avoiding them like the plague.

Chairib · 09-05-11, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

I agree that Hughes' wrestling is significantly better, but his striking is worse. Sanchez, while relatively limited in that he throws the same one-two and one-two-headkick combo endlessly, is still smoother and cleaner on the feet.

Nope Sanchez has been and will always be painfully average in both those areas. He tries to make up for it, especially his deficiency in his footwork, with an aggressive brawling style.

Ladle · 09-06-11, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by Chairib

Nope Sanchez has been and will always be painfully average in both those areas. He tries to make up for it, especially his deficiency in his footwork, with an aggressive brawling style.

Average? Sure. But he's still a demonstrably more effective striker than Matt Hughes.

BIGDAY · 09-06-11, 08:13 AM

Sanchez's replacement will be interesting...

BIGDAY · 09-06-11, 08:34 AM

Koz accepted the fight with Hughes!