Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Playmaker]

Great info Vaughany and good luck tonight

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 134 Plays:


11.357 units on Barboza at -185 to win 6.139 units;

6.135 units on Pearson/Barboza to go the distance at Evens to win 6.135 units;


6.059 units on Schaub by TKO/KO at +135 to win 8.18 units;

6.446 units on Schaub by TKO/KO at +125 to win 8.057 units;


1 unit on Nogueira Sub of the Night at +1000 to win 10 units;


Parlay: 6.059 units on Not Pearson by Submission, Schaub by TKO/KO, & Not Rua by Submission to win 10.203 units;


Parlay: 12.088 units on Palhares, & Schaub to win 11.193 units;


Parlay: 6.044 units on Curran/Sandro Starts Round 2, Palhares, Barboza/Pearson Starts Round 2, Not Schaub by Submission, & Not Okami Inside Distance to win 6.078 units;


Parlay: 3.068 units on Schaub/Nogueira to Not Go the Distance at -185 to win 1.658 units;

^^^ (This was originally a double parlay of Rivera/Sakara to not go the distance and Schaub/Nog to not go the distance but obviously now just a single on the latter due to Sakara fight being cancelled);


Parlay: 3.068 units on Woodley (-240), Not Yahya by decision (-1764), & Schaub inside the distance (+130) to win 7.495 units;


Parlay: 3.068 units on F.Griffin by decision (+298), & Schaub/Nogueira to not go the distance (-185) to win 15.741 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Barboza (-250), Anderson Silva (-400), & Jon Jones (-350) to win 12.5 units.


2.5 units on Loveland at -130 to win 1.923 units;


2.5 units on Assuncao at -130 to win 1.923 units;

0.1 units on Johnny Eduardo by TKO/KO at +800 to win 0.8 units;


Parlay: 6.053 units on P.Thiago, Not Schaub by Submission, & Anderson Silva/Okami Starts Rnd 2 to win 3.595 units.


5.781 units on Griffin/Shogun to Go the Distance at +137.5 to win 7.949 units;

hedged with:

3.75 units on Shogun by TKO/KO at +155 to win 5.812 units.


So for above plays will make 4.199 units if fight goes distance, 0.031 units if Shogun wins by TKO/KO. Also have a risk-free arb with 1.839 units on Shogun by Decision at +450 arbed with Not Shogun by decision at -305. Will make 2.576 units if Shogun does win by decision and 0.03 units if he doesn't win by decision. Both these plays are to act as hedges to Shogun KO of the Night.


Parlay: 10 units on P.Thiago (-450), Palhares (-275), & Munoz (-188) to win 15.556 units


0.613 units on Loveland by Decision at +220 to win 1.349 units;


0.131 units on P.Thiago by TKO/KO at +1100 to win 1.441 units;


2.324 units on Tavares/Fisher to Go the Distance at -175 to win 1.328 units;

0.153 units on Fisher by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.377 units;


1.973 units on Palhares/Miller to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.315 units;


0.942 units on Cane by TKO/KO at +140 to win 1.319 units;


2 units on Schaub KO of the Night at +600 to win 12 units;


0.55 units on Anderson Silva KO of the Night at +500 to win 2.75 units;


0.5 units on Shogun KO of the Night at +650 to win 3.25 units;


0.15 units on Cane KO of the Night at +1000 to win 1.5 units;


Parlay (double): 1.385 units on Nedkov/Cane to Not Go the Distance (-200), & Erick Silva (-275) to win 1.448 units.


Parlay: 6.127 units on Alcantara, P.Thiago, Not D.Miller by Submission, Fisher/Tavares Starts Rnd 2, & Not Shogun by Submission to win 5.104 units.


3.055 units on Palhares by Submission at +275 to win 8.4 units;


Parlay (double): 0.1 units on Palhares by Submission (+210), & Cane by TKO/KO (+120) to win 0.582 units;


Parlay (double): 0.1 units on Erick Silva by Submission, & Palhares by Submission to win 1 unit;


0.173 units on Shogun by TKO/KO at +850 to win 1.471 units;


0.108 units on Anderson Silva by KO at +1400 to win 1.512 units.


GL tonight all, should be interesting! Also have a risk-free arb on Cane/Nedkov. Will make 4.473 units if it does go distance and stake back if not distance. Have also cancelled out my 5 units on Nedkov.

[Vaughany]

Arbed out of my Assuncao play with 1.9 units on Eduardo at +150 so will make 0.35 units if Eduardo wins or 0.023 units profit if Assuncao wins.

[Pew Pew]

Arbed out of my Assuncao play with 1.9 units on Eduardo at +150 so will make 0.35 units if Eduardo wins or 0.023 units profit if Assuncao wins.

[sag3000]

Better safe than sorry, though

WAR Thiago!

[Vaughany]

Forgot to include these plays in the summary above:


Parlay: 10 units on Barboza (-250), Anderson Silva (-400), & Jon Jones (-350) to win 12.5 units;


4 units on Pearson by Decision at +467 to win 18.68 units;

hedged with:

10 units on Barboza at -250 to win 4 units.


8.68 units profit if Pearson wins by Decision, this is a hedge to a hedge - covers my Barboza plays.

[Vaughany]

Just added another arb involving Nedkov & Cane. 100 units on Cane at -200 and 47.9 units on Nedkov at +221. Equals 2.1 units profit if Cane wins or 5.859 units if Nedkov wins.

[Vaughany]

Another arb added. 6.061 units profit if Griffin wins by decision, 0.014 units if not Griffin by decision.

[jjaycuny]

lost my fukkin shirt on these fights so far. I need Okami to pull this one out!

[Vaughany]

WOW Anderson is superhuman for sure! UNBELIEVABLE.

Another mediocre night, down about 8 units (including arbs) but excluding possible KO of the Night profit for Shogun or Anderson. Had 0.043 units on Nog KO of the Night at +5000 which I forgot to add! Also got these two parlays still going, just need Jon Jones to win for one, and Munoz for the other, so not a total disaster of a night!...


Parlay: 10 units on Barboza (-250), Anderson Silva (-400), & Jon Jones (-350) to win 12.5 units;

Parlay: 10 units on P.Thiago (-450), Palhares (-275), & Munoz (-188) to win 15.556 units.

[rafa martin]

dissaster of a nihgt!!! thanks anyhow bro...next will be much better.

[bjpenn85]

same here, i had once again a lot of money on shaub, and lost huge. Its like all the luck and momentum i have had the last year catches up. worse than a breakup. im serial.

[Vaughany]

same here, i had once again a lot of money on shaub, and lost huge. Its like all the luck and momentum i have had the last year catches up. worse than a breakup. im serial.

Yeah sucks but is all part of the game. Everybody has to have a bad spell at some point, anybody who argues otherwise is bullshitting! All about how you rebound from it, dont go chasing with ridiculously large plays. Luckily I've got the two parlays pending and pretty confident Munoz and Jones win so will cancel out my losses from UFC 133, Versus 5, and 134. Few plays and hedges Im very confident in coming up. BJ as dog against COndit and Munoz hedged with Leben by TKO/KO or KO of the Night.

[illmatick]

all over B.J as well, should be at least a 3 unit play for me.

His brother looked good last night. Surprised he waited so long to make his debut.

[caveira]

Nogueira really surprised everyone with this knockout... Anderson is not from this world =0, Best fighter MMA ever had!

[cheeese]

Yeah sucks but is all part of the game. Everybody has to have a bad spell at some point, anybody who argues otherwise is bullshitting! All about how you rebound from it, dont go chasing with ridiculously large plays. Luckily I've got the two parlays pending and pretty confident Munoz and Jones win so will cancel out my losses from UFC 133, Versus 5, and 134. Few plays and hedges Im very confident in coming up. BJ as dog against COndit and Munoz hedged with Leben by TKO/KO or KO of the Night.

Too bad they don't raise your limits back when you lose. Fuckers.

[Vaughany]

all over B.J as well, should be at least a 3 unit play for me.

His brother looked good last night. Surprised he waited so long to make his debut.

Yeah looked really good, hopefully inspires BJ some more to go out choke Condit out!

[Vaughany]

Couple other pending plays/parlay:


5.508 units on Travis Browne at -190 to win 2.9 units;


Parlay: 6.121 units on Not Schaub by Submission (-13725), Travis Browne (-190), Cruz (-390), & Not Rampage Jackson by Decision (-3870) to win 6.008 units.

[The HOFF]

Few plays and hedges Im very confident in coming up. BJ as dog against COndit

all over B.J as well, should be at least a 3 unit play for me.

You bastards. I'm actually pretty confident the other way.

[Vaughany]

You bastards. I'm actually pretty confident the other way.

ha it's not on an easy one to pick for sure. Im just not sure I can pass up on BJ at +110 odds. Not often u get him as an underdog. I think Condit is going to go in to it thinking he can KO BJ after his recent success and get carried away searching for the big KO rather than setting things up with combinations. We all know BJ has one of the best chins in the game as well so even if Penn does get caught it's not necessarily lights out. And Condit's stand-up defence isn't great, he gets caught in most his fights. Also relying on BJ being smart and getting the fight to the ground when the chance presents itself. Ultimately though I see this going the distance so will probably have Condit by decision and/or Fight goes distance in a couple parlays as well.

[The HOFF]

I think it probably goes the distance too. But I can also see something like a 10-8 third round for Condit which might make judging interesting. BJ will fight to the death for 1.5 rounds and then wish he was dead.

[Vaughany]

I think it probably goes the distance too. But I can also see something like a 10-8 third round for Condit which might make judging interesting. BJ will fight to the death for 1.5 rounds and then wish he was dead.

True, have to favour Condit in the third round

[Vaughany]

Adding:


6.117 units on Kampmann at +115 to win 7.035 units;


2.5 units on Jeremy Stephens at +252 to win 6.3 units.


Won't be surprised if Kampmann ends up being the slight favourite by fight time. I will be either arbing out of this or hedging with Story by decision as unless he makes some adjustments this could be like the Sanchez fight all over again. I believe Kampmann's overall grappling game is superior to Story's and of course his striking is more technical. But it's always risky with the Hitman though due to his tendency to be too laid-back and let opponents push the pace, which of obviously doesn't bode well against a fighter like Story who constantly pushes forward. This was the reason why I didn't make a play on Kampmann against Sanchez because despite him clearly being the superior mixed martial artist, his style is just not conducive to winning decisions sometimes. Hopefully the Sanchez loss will have made Kampmann realise that he needs to be more pro-active and not just sit-back and counter strike. Despite being a technical striker, Kampmann does not have great knockout power and it doesnt help that he keeps getting matched up against guys with granite chins like Condit, Shields, Sanchez and now Story! I do think that Kampmann can sub Story, either through a guillotine as Story attempts a take-down, or through following up after taking Story down himself. If Hathaway can do it then I dont see why Kampmann can't also get a take-down, especially with Story's wild style as he charges forward.

With regards to Jeremy Stephens, I think there is considerable value in the current +252 line on pinnacle. These are two of the fighters I admire the most in MMA. Stephens has gone from being a cocky, aggressive Iowa kid with KO power to a cerebral and dedicated mixed martial artist. Just from watching his blogs you can see that he is highly ambitious and confident. Pettis meanwhile is obviously one of the most entertaining fighters in the business, and after watching the World of Jenks thing you can't help but admire the dude.
Both fighters are predominantly stand-up based. Stephens has a granite chin, KO power and decent grappling. Pettis is flashier, has a wider array of striking techniques, and is very active and effective on the ground, always aggressive looking for triangles and transitions. Both have reasonable take-down defence, I'd give the slight edge to Pettis who I think has better balance. However, offensive wrestling I'd give to Stephens, who showed in the Downes fight that he has a new appreciation of mixing it up and not just being a stand-up fighter looking for the one-punch KO, but also an effective grappler. He's worked diligently with Fabricio Camoes and Dean Lister on his BJJ so that he isn't going to make the same mistakes that he made against Din Thomas and Lauzon. Despite this Pettis still has a chance of subbing Stephens off his back, but you have to wonder whether Stephens will look to take Pettis down? Pettis is unlikely to get Stephens down, as far as I'm aware all of Pettis' submissions have come after his opponent took him down. So on the basis that I think the majority of this fight will remain standing, does Pettis really deserve to be a -280 favourite over Stephens, a guy that has finished Dos Anjos, Cole Miller, Marcus Davis, and beaten one of the best strikers in the division in Sam Stout, and lost a close and in some people's eye's a debatable split-decision to arguably the best striker in the division in Melvin Guillard??? When you look at the guys Pettis has beaten I wouldn't say that any of them have as good stand-up as Lil Heathen (Campbell, Castillo, Karalexis, Roller, and Henderson).

[Vaughany]

Adding:


6.117 units on Kampmann at +115 to win 7.035 units;


2.5 units on Jeremy Stephens at +252 to win 6.3 units.


Won't be surprised if Kampmann ends up being the slight favourite by fight time. I will be either arbing out of this or hedging with Story by decision as unless he makes some adjustments this could be like the Sanchez fight all over again. I believe Kampmann's overall grappling game is superior to Story's and of course his striking is more technical. But it's always risky with the Hitman though due to his tendency to be too laid-back and let opponents push the pace, which of obviously doesn't bode well against a fighter like Story who constantly pushes forward. This was the reason why I didn't make a play on Kampmann against Sanchez because despite him clearly being the superior mixed martial artist, his style is just not conducive to winning decisions sometimes. Hopefully the Sanchez loss will have made Kampmann realise that he needs to be more pro-active and not just sit-back and counter strike. Despite being a technical striker, Kampmann does not have great knockout power and it doesnt help that he keeps getting matched up against guys with granite chins like Condit, Shields, Sanchez and now Story! I do think that Kampmann can sub Story, either through a guillotine as Story attempts a take-down, or through following up after taking Story down himself. If Hathaway can do it then I dont see why Kampmann can't also get a take-down, especially with Story's wild style as he charges forward.

With regards to Jeremy Stephens, I think there is considerable value in the current +252 line on pinnacle. These are two of the fighters I admire the most in MMA. Stephens has gone from being a cocky, aggressive Iowa kid with KO power to a cerebral and dedicated mixed martial artist. Just from watching his blogs you can see that he is highly ambitious and confident. Pettis meanwhile is obviously one of the most entertaining fighters in the business, and after watching the World of Jenks thing you can't help but admire the dude.
Both fighters are predominantly stand-up based. Stephens has a granite chin, KO power and decent grappling. Pettis is flashier, has a wider array of striking techniques, and is very active and effective on the ground, always aggressive looking for triangles and transitions. Both have reasonable take-down defence, I'd give the slight edge to Pettis who I think has better balance. However, offensive wrestling I'd give to Stephens, who showed in the Downes fight that he has a new appreciation of mixing it up and not just being a stand-up fighter looking for the one-punch KO, but also an effective grappler. He's worked diligently with Fabricio Camoes and Dean Lister on his BJJ so that he isn't going to make the same mistakes that he made against Din Thomas and Lauzon. Despite this Pettis still has a chance of subbing Stephens off his back, but you have to wonder whether Stephens will look to take Pettis down? Pettis is unlikely to get Stephens down, as far as I'm aware all of Pettis' submissions have come after his opponent took him down. So on the basis that I think the majority of this fight will remain standing, does Pettis really deserve to be a -280 favourite over Stephens, a guy that has finished Dos Anjos, Cole Miller, Marcus Davis, and beaten one of the best strikers in the division in Sam Stout, and lost a close and in some people's eye's a debatable split-decision to arguably the best striker in the division in Melvin Guillard??? When you look at the guys Pettis has beaten I wouldn't say that any of them have as good stand-up as Lil Heathen (Campbell, Castillo, Karalexis, Roller, and Henderson).

As I wrote this Stephens dropped to +235 on Pinnacle and +200 on Sportbet/5dimes, and Kampmann is now at -120 on Sportbet/5dimes.

[Chairib]

True, have to favour Condit in the third round

I honestly can't see Condit winning a single round in this fight.

[vtipster]

I went to watch this fight live in Rio.

Crazy stuff guys, the place was just insane, a lot of energy from the crowd, we made a show and the Brazilian fighters respond bringing down the opponents with super motivation. I made a lot of money with my bets (for fun) on Brazilian fighters. I think most of people who lost their money on this UFC forgot about the home advantage, the emotional factor etc.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 13.958 units.

[Chairib]

Martin's my boy but Ricky Story is just a bad match up for him.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 0.613 units on Shields, Not Jackson by Decision, Sonnen by Decision, Aldo by Decision, Ward by Decision, Not Nick Diaz by Decision, & Penn/Condit to Go the Distance to win 18.176 units;


Parlay: 0.613 units on Dawson/Hopkins Over 9.5 rnds, Ward/Froch Over 9.5 rnds, Ellenberger/Shields to Go the Distance, Not Jackson by Decision, Not Florian Inside the Distance, & Velasquez by Decision to win 7.362 units.

[bjpenn85]

yeah i know. its very very tempting though to go crazy and put shitloads on jones and maybe tony ferguson. If jackson wins, its not a decision, most probably a tko. i dont see a sub coming up, but i dont know if i have the balls to only bet tko.

then combine it with tony ferguson which i dont either see losing. no props for aaron riley 1.round ko if that was to happen.

I mean, A went to hell, then double up, on B, as B went to hell, i should know triple on C, i mean, it cant go wrong? Is it stupid to try to chase it, should i just let it go?

[(Reyes)]

How'd you end up overall?

[rocky mattioli]

yeah i know. its very very tempting though to go crazy and put shitloads on jones and maybe tony ferguson. If jackson wins, its not a decision, most probably a tko. i dont see a sub coming up, but i dont know if i have the balls to only bet tko.

then combine it with tony ferguson which i dont either see losing. no props for aaron riley 1.round ko if that was to happen.

I mean, A went to hell, then double up, on B, as B went to hell, i should know triple on C, i mean, it cant go wrong? Is it stupid to try to chase it, should i just let it go?

i hear you...i thought the same when jackson fought machida....

[Beelzebubzy]

Rampages Last 2 KOs
Wanderlai
Chuck

He has failed to KO
Hamill (decent Chin)
Evans
Jardine (arguably worst chin in MMA)
Forrest (declining chin)

[sirchadwick1]

I'm on Bones ITD here... but I couldn't ignore the value on Rampage by Dec at +1465. Doubtful... but is give him at least a 15% chance to pull it off.

[Vaughany]

Rampage is more flat-flooted then he used to be, he's never been fleet of foot but he's not as explosive as he used to be. Gonna take a big lack of concetration for Jones to get caught