Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

I have a similar arb, though yours is more profitable than mine both ways. Mine relies on the fight going to decision though, as opposed to Bader by decision. More or less the same thing I suppose!

Man, that -130 line on the fight to go the distance was an absolute dream. In fact, pretty much all of the early lines for that bet were in the -130/-140 region. Crazy value.

Yeah the 9 units that I'll make if Bader doesnt win by decision is from an arb on the fight to go distance and not distance, just a back-up really in case Bader TKO's Tito.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I like the picks for 132, V.

I know many of us were torn on wiman/siver. I've decided to just bet the distance, I think it definitely goes the distance in this one and I find that safer than picking either guy, although I still lean toward a siver UD.

Also, how much do you like stun gun/condit for a decision???

ON paper you would think a decision would be a lock, but the fact that condit has only 3 decisions I believe in all his fights scares me. Also, the fact that kim fades in the 3rd and carlo comes on strong in the 3rd makes me hesitant, I can see carlo getting a finish in the 3rd (unfortunately I don't have that 'condit wins 3rd round' option on my bookie, that bet is GOLDEN at those odds!). I am not scared of kim finishing at all, period. Its really that last round that scares me and is keeping me from betting the distance on this one....


REALLY liking RDA/GSOT for the distance, but odds haven't come out on my bookie site yet.... What do you think about this play? Also thinking about playing bowles inside the distance.

Lastly, what do you think of njukuoni / winner?

I still want to make a secondary str8 bet along with my huge str8 play on cruz. I was going to go with siver, but decided to stay away. Was gonna go with simpson, but after reading some more and feedback from my thread, I've decided to stay away. The only other fight I really like with decent odds on a str8 play is njokuoni. Was never impressed with winner and the fact neither guy has much of a ground game (i'd actually give a slight edge to njokuoni on the ground), I think this fight will def play out on the feet, leaving the question who is the better striker? I think the answer is Njoukouni, but can't say with confidence. Winner doesn't have much cold KO power (for a boxer his only KO was on roli, which I don't give too much credit), njokuoni does have lots of power and finishes. I also think njukouni has more diversity in his striking arsenal... what do you think and who you got?

Sorry for the lengthy post, any feedback appreciated!!! GL brother!

[Vaughany]

I like the picks for 132, V.

I know many of us were torn on wiman/siver. I've decided to just bet the distance, I think it definitely goes the distance in this one and I find that safer than picking either guy, although I still lean toward a siver UD.

Also, how much do you like stun gun/condit for a decision???

ON paper you would think a decision would be a lock, but the fact that condit has only 3 decisions I believe in all his fights scares me. Also, the fact that kim fades in the 3rd and carlo comes on strong in the 3rd makes me hesitant, I can see carlo getting a finish in the 3rd (unfortunately I don't have that 'condit wins 3rd round' option on my bookie, that bet is GOLDEN at those odds!). I am not scared of kim finishing at all, period. Its really that last round that scares me and is keeping me from betting the distance on this one....


REALLY liking RDA/GSOT for the distance, but odds haven't come out on my bookie site yet.... What do you think about this play? Also thinking about playing bowles inside the distance.

Lastly, what do you think of njukuoni / winner?

I still want to make a secondary str8 bet along with my huge str8 play on cruz. I was going to go with siver, but decided to stay away. Was gonna go with simpson, but after reading some more and feedback from my thread, I've decided to stay away. The only other fight I really like with decent odds on a str8 play is njokuoni. Was never impressed with winner and the fact neither guy has much of a ground game (i'd actually give a slight edge to njokuoni on the ground), I think this fight will def play out on the feet, leaving the question who is the better striker? I think the answer is Njoukouni, but can't say with confidence. Winner doesn't have much cold KO power (for a boxer his only KO was on roli, which I don't give too much credit), njokuoni does have lots of power and finishes. I also think njukouni has more diversity in his striking arsenal... what do you think and who you got?

Sorry for the lengthy post, any feedback appreciated!!! GL brother!

I think the outcome that I'm most confident in is GSot/Dos Anjos going the distance, however the odds aren't great for this at -215 to -250 range so is probably just parlay material. I'd also be on Dos Anjos but just can't see how he finishes GSot, which means thers always the chance that he gets screwed if it goes the distance.

Stungun/Condit is another one im confident goes the distance, but I wouldnt rule out Condit finishing in the 3rd as Hoff and others have pointed out (and Condit has also predicted tht he'll win in the third after Stungun fades).

I like Wiman in this one, I'm a fan of his style and like how he doesn't crave all the media attention - just trains hard everyday and improves every fight, similar to Frankie Edgar. I also appreciate his ridiculous bible speeches at the end of fights which make Rogan squirm! Wiman is always overlooked and people are high on Siver because he beat Gsot as a big underdog. Apparently Siver suddenly has amazing takedown defence now, although the fact is tht GSot's takedowns are mediocre and Siver's striking defence is not tht great - GSot actually caught him a few times in Rnds 2 and 3.

Njokuani/Winner is a tough one, neither have very good defence and as you say neither are big threats on the ground. Njokuani actually impressed me against Barbosa, I thought Barbosa would take it more comfortably. I think it goes the distance and Njokuani may steal it because he has a more diverse striking arsenal, he'll throw more kicks, knees and elbows than Winner who is more boxing orientated. However, neither have granite chins so wouldnt rule out a flash KO finish either, which is why I've got a small play on Winner by KO at +900 and will also be looking at Njokuani KO of the Night at +1000 or better.

[koscheckbaby]

You've talked me into a Wiman bet.

Do you know anything about this Donny Walker fight? Just doing fightfinder research, it sounds like Walker is pretty good and his opponent has had some weak opposition.

[rocky mattioli]

somebody mentioned bowles itd(mma b.m.)...my books don`t have that but they do have under 2.5......at +135....bowles finishes both standing and on the ground...he doesn`t dick around....faber put mizu out...and he`s been stopped via strikes before...mizugaki seems a bit reckless....

i think bowles is the much quicker guy and can finish this...most likely via submission...

[MMAbetMASTA]

somebody mentioned bowles itd(mma b.m.)...my books don`t have that but they do have under 2.5......at +135....bowles finishes both standing and on the ground...he doesn`t dick around....faber put mizu out...and he`s been stopped via strikes before...mizugaki seems a bit reckless....

i think bowles is the much quicker guy and can finish this...most likely via submission...

I like bowles inside the distance for similar reasons... if you got under odds I'd go for it. I will too, but odds haven't come out on my bookie yet for any distance bets!!!


And thanks V for the feedback to my questions. You def present good inisight into wiman. I think its too competitive for a str8, and I think I'd still lean toward siver. Yet a distance bet depending on the odds I really like, I think this goes the distance. RDA/GSOT OTD is a risky one at those odds, yet I still might play it. THanks again bro, GL!

GL to everyone and enjoy the show! WAR CRUZ!

[Vaughany]

UFC 132 Plays so far:


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by Decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.


6.22 units on Wanderlei Silva at +120 to win 7.466 units;

4.853 units on Wanderlei/Leben to not go the Distance at -130 to win 3.733 units;

0.178 units on Leben KO of the Night at +1800 to win 3.204 units;

0.475 units on Leben by KO at +800 to win 3.8 units;


2 units on Wiman at +120 to win 2.4 units;

4.8 units on Wiman/Siver to go the Distance at -120 to win 4 units;

0.067 units on Wiman KO of the Night at +3000 to win 2.01 units;


6.1 units on Stungun by Decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

3.946 units on Condit/Stungun to go the Distance at -150 to win 2.631 units;


0.782 units on Simpson by Decision at +175 to win 1.369 units;

0.357 units on Tavares by KO at +400 to win 1.428 units;


0.05 units on Winner by KO at +900 to win 0.45 units;


Parlay: 6.24 units on Andre Ward & Bader to win 2.476 units;

Parlay: 0.624 units on Guillard, Not Bader by Submission, Not Leben by Submission, Not Faber by Submission, Condit/Stungun Starts Rnd 2, Wiman/Siver goes the distance, Sotiropolous by decision, & Miller/Henderson goes distance to win 4.783 units;

Parlay: 0.1 units on Barnett by Submission, Condit/Stungun to Decision, & Bader by Decision to win 0.931 units.


Also having following parlay that has some UFC 132 fights involved:

4 out of 6 folds parlay: 0.855 units (0.057 units per line) on Barnet/Rogers to not go the Distance, Sturm by Decision, Bader by decision, Wiman by decision, Stungun/Condit goes the Distance, & Davis/Evans goes the Distance to win 13.815 units.


Also have a risk-free arb involving Bader/Tito which will net me just over 9 units if Bader doesn't win by decision and 27 units if Bader does win by decision (won't be included on my record on here).

Added:

0.4 units on Wiman Submission of the Night at +2800 to win 11.2 units;

Couldn't pass up on this flier at such great odds! Fight is likely to go distance but can't rule out Wiman latching on a guillotine during a scramble which will inevitably happen when Siver tries to get back to his feet. Also dont anticipate there being many submissions tonight which should help.


0.5 units on Njokuani/Winner to go Over 2.5 Rnds at +120 to win 0.6 units;


0.05 units on Njokuani KO of the Night at +1200 to win 0.6 units;


0.05 units on Guillard KO of the Night at +650 to win 0.325 units;


Parlay: 3.111 units on Bowles, Not Dos Anjos by Submission, Guillard, Not Siver in Rnd 1, & Not Leben by Submission to win 3.303 units.

[Vaughany]

UFC Versus 4 Results:

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4:


10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;

10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;

11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;

Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;

Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

Review:

Total stake: 39.633 units

Return: 64.921 units

Profit: +25.288 units


Didn't get a chance to post before the event as I was in Spain, but also had small plays on Brown at +225, Brown by decision at +900, Brenneman by decision at +700, and Joedaddy by decision was the only fail so solid night overall thanks to Kongo's miraculous comeback! Annoyed that I didn't get a chance to place a bigger bet on Brenneman by decision - the odds for that and Brown/Howard were ridiculous!

[Vaughany]

Off to a nice start with Njokuani/Winner going over 2.5 rnds thanks to Njokuani playing it safe and technical

[Poppa Catfish]

Andre lifting his hands up in victory for the judges...

[spargament]

Note to SBR: without props or the ability to parlay, this card is about as useless as the last card was USEFUL. It's not like there's even SBR contests for UFC events anymore..come on..

In general I'm very surprised that Dos Anjos is getting any respect against Sotiropolous, with George NEEDING to get back into the chase to be a contender. Also, AS I've typed this up I've seen Bader become an EVEN BIGGER FAV..is ANYONE on tito?

[Vaughany]

Andre lifting his hands up in victory for the judges...

And I thought Semtex was the dumbest Roughhouse member!

[Vaughany]

Atrain gets the decision...another unit in the bag

[Vaughany]

Just added more to my Bader/Tito arb...will now make 35.6 units if Bader wins by decision and about 9.2 units if not Bader by decision.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

2 units on Condit by Decision at +375 to win 7.5 units;

0.312 units on Condit in Rnd 3 at +1600 to win 4.992 units.

Hedging my Stungun by decision play, just got a feeling that Condit's toughness and pace may be too much for Dong.

[Vaughany]

Damn should of just hedged with Condit straight-up like I originally planned on doing. Really need Bader decision now!

[Ladle]

Damn should of just hedged with Condit straight-up like I originally planned on doing. Really need Bader decision now!

Such is life! Cruz will do it big (and win a decision).

[Vaughany]

[TheGovernor11]

That face says it all haha

[Vaughany]

Adding:

2.5 units on Wiman at +110 to win 2.75 units.

[shaggy3000]

who is you favorite to win? you know me. i dont look for value just a winner

[Vaughany]

Absolute fuuukin JOKE. This is turnin in to a horrible night

[Ladle]

Absolute fuuukin JOKE. This is turnin in to a horrible night

Such an awful decision. Siver did nothing. Who the hell was judging that?

Can't believe Bader lost and screwed us out of an awesome bet. This should have been a great night.

[rocky mattioli]

i am absolutely stunned about bader losing....tito hit the lottery...he punches like a girl...he looks stiff as a board....

bader looked psyched out...nervous...and that punch he got hit with was more like a push.....

if they fight 5 times,bader wins 4(and bader ain`t that great)...

keep it under your hat...this might give us some value if tito fights a warm body next....

because he`s old,stiff....and the luckiest s.o.b. drawing breath....

btw...both sherdog and mmajunkie had siver winning...i guess we`re all crazy....

[cheeese]

The best part was Tito didn't even throw the punch, Bader just ran into his fist.

[Vaughany]

ha I think maybe the judges and sherdog/mmajunkie guys are being too conscious of the whole wrestler getting the advantage thing (lay n pray awareness) and giving the stiker the benefit of the doubt. Except Wiman is the complete opposite of your standard lay n pray artist...he controlled the octagon the whole fight, and landed more damaging shots (obviously mostly in Rnd 2).

[Vaughany]

Such an awful decision. Siver did nothing. Who the hell was judging that?

Can't believe Bader lost and screwed us out of an awesome bet. This should have been a great night.

Yeah I was counting on this one being one of my most profitable events of year, gonna be lucky to end up with my total stake back at this point!

[Vaughany]

Holfy ****...Wand should retire after tht, he's clearly been hit too many times and has the Big Nog zombie thing going on now

[StanleySharp]

0.178 units on Leben KO of the Night at +1800 to win 3.204 units; 0.475 units on Leben by KO at +800 to win 3.8 units;

Think you might hit that KO of the night

[Poppa Catfish]

ha I think maybe the judges and sherdog/mmajunkie guys are being too conscious of the whole wrestler getting the advantage thing (lay n pray awareness) and giving the stiker the benefit of the doubt. Except Wiman is the complete opposite of your standard lay n pray artist...he controlled the octagon the whole fight, and landed more damaging shots (obviously mostly in Rnd 2).

I think it was a razor close fight, and could have gone either way, sadly didn't go my way.

[gym rat]

Holfy ****...Wand should retire after tht, he's clearly been hit too many times and has the Big Nog zombie thing going on now

Agree Vand should retire. No need to tarnish his legacy any further.

[Vaughany]

Think you might hit that KO of the night

Could really do with it, but Condit, Dos Anjos and Guillard are all big contenders!

[v1y]

Could really do with it, but Condit, Dos Anjos and Guillard are all big contenders!

Dos anjos? I agree, but I would watch your mouth 'round these parts.

[Vaughany]

Dos anjos? I agree, but I would watch your mouth 'round these parts.

Que?

[Chairib]

Que?

Donde esta la biblioteca?