Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Wrecked]

I'll probably end up putting 100+ on Nate.
Story is going to get destroyed.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Why isn't anyone pounding nate mardquate?

First fight at 170... and he was a huge 185'er, so that's probably making people a bit gun shy, as the weight cut could be an issue...

And Story is running hot right now, so he has some steam behind him.

I'll probably throw Nate in a parlay or two.

[sirchadwick1]

I liked Story when I saw him at +140 and tried to make a play... but by the time I submitted it the lines shifted drastically. So I waited it out a bit and then saw Marquardt at +110... that was more appealing to me. In my head I pictured Nate winning this fight as he's going to be a big WW and he's more well-rounded. I only originally was going to play Story for value. Story has been on a roll and looked good against Alves, but I think he struggles to get Nate down. If Nate doesn't let Story dictate the pace and he mixes up his full arsenal I strongly believe he gets the W on fight night. Lets just hope the cut doesn't kill him. This is a fight where I wouldn't pound either guy.

[koscheckbaby]

My problem with betting against Story is he can win without getting the takedowns. I mean, did he really do anything against Alves or Hendricks? I don't think he really did. Yet, he won both decisions. Just TRYING for the takedown sometimes win fights.

[Wrecked]

He got rocked in his last fight before Alves (I forgot the guy's name), and Nate is going to expose him both on his fight and on the ground.

This really is a simple bet, weight cut or no weight cut.

[Hannibal]

^ why don't you start betting with real money before you go around saying what is a simple bet or not, or telling people to pound this or pound that... Pound what?? With your mighty $50??

[Ladle]

Just TRYING for the takedown sometimes win fights.

Diego Sanchez agrees with this statement.

[Thewiseman]

I don't know what to think of this fight, Nate is gonna be bigger, and I think he can take Story down. But will he fade? And can he deal with Story's pressure?

[NunyaBidness]

It's an interesting fight, Nate should be bigger, and he does have good takedown defense, but Sonnen's shot was from another world. He looked very tentative in the Okami fight, seemed fearful of getting taken down again. He's looked good since, but is that going to be in the back of his mind?

[Thewiseman]

I dont think he looked real good vs Miller.

[NunyaBidness]

I dont think he looked real good vs Miller.

Probably not as good as he should have, you're right.

[koscheckbaby]

Diego Sanchez agrees with this statement.

LoL, so true. I've recalled a few others too where the fight was one guy getting stuffed but winning. Matt Serra over Chris Lytle comes to mind. I'm drawing blanks on others. I know Munoz almost stole the fight against Okami doing that too.

[Vaughany]

Sorta agree here. Marquardt's wrestling is a bit of an enigma. It's still tough for me to gauge just how good of a wrestler he really is.

I think this fight as well as Lentz/olivera are the perfect fights to straddle with decisions. Might be hard finding a good price on Story by decision, though.

Yep, play on marquadt and story by dec equals free money imo. Bet limits screwin me overr tho

[Wrecked]

Yep, play on marquadt and story by dec equals free money imo. Bet limits screwin me overr tho

what are the odds on that?
What site has those odds up? I don't see them on 5dimes O.o

[reformed]

vaughny hook me up with some winners for tonight/tomorrow , I need some club and stripper $$$$$$$$$$$

[Vulcan300]

nate cut from ufc for not clearing medical.

[Poppa Catfish]

Yep, play on marquadt and story by dec equals free money imo. Bet limits screwin me overr tho

Evil UFC knew about this and had to cancel the fight

[beaver4100]

What are your thoughts on the fights this weekend Vaughany?

[Vaughany]

What are your thoughts on the fights this weekend Vaughany?

Im going big on Stungun by decision (possibly hedged with Condit at +110 or better), Cruz by decision, already got Wanderlei at +120 opener hedged with Leben by TKO/KO and Leben KO of the Night. Also like Wiman by decision at +200 or better or even straight up at +125 as I wouldnt rule out Wiman finishing Siver.

[The HOFF]

If you're hedging Stun Gun by DEC, I would maybe look at Condit wins in Round 3 +1425. Kim fades horribly and Condit only gets stronger.

[sag3000]

If you're hedging Stun Gun by DEC, I would maybe look at Condit wins in Round 3 +1425. Kim fades horribly and Condit only gets stronger.

I really like that bet!

[ufcmma36]

Tito/bader draw +6500 probably not but has more value than any other fight on this card to go to draw!

[Ladle]

If you're hedging Stun Gun by DEC, I would maybe look at Condit wins in Round 3 +1425. Kim fades horribly and Condit only gets stronger.

I really like that as a straight up play too, for the exact reason you mentioned.

[sirchadwick1]

I really like that bet!

Same here. Just put 3u on Stun Gun and hedged with .2u on Condit in the 3rd at +1425.

[urge2kill]

Tito/bader draw +6500 probably not but has more value than any other fight on this card to go to draw!

I put $5 on it.

[RaiderNation MMA]

Why isn't anyone pounding nate mardquate?

hahahahahah that sounded gay.

[reformed]

hahahahahah that sounded gay.

someone pounded him a little too hard , that why he had to withdraw. Then dana found out and had to kick him out due to the UFC no f\*g policy.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

If you're hedging Stun Gun by DEC, I would maybe look at Condit wins in Round 3 +1425. Kim fades horribly and Condit only gets stronger.

Yeah tht does seem like a good play, I think Condit has a good chance of getting a decision as well tho.

[rocky mattioli]

Yeah tht does seem like a good play, I think Condit has a good chance of getting a decision as well tho.

ya know,i`ve been reading as much as i have time for on kim/comdit and i`m taking a shot with carlos at even money.......looking at kim`s loss(that was overturned) vs an aging parisyan....his draw with hasegawa.....and his split decision vs matt brown(not to mention his fight with nate diaz...many thought diaz did enough)....i think kim is very beatable.....

i have to believe that condit is preparing for the clinch and the takedowns....yeah,he could get hugged and laid on.....

i still like his cardio,skill and heart....condit`s about as tough a competitior as there is....and his resume is strong....

it will be close,i`m pretty sure...if there were a "split decision" prop,i`d be on it...

not a "steppin out" play(knowing full well that condit has had issues with wrestlers)......more a "degenenerate gambler with a hunch/fan boy" fun play on a guy i respect for some action on what appears to be an intriguing match-up....

[The HOFF]

(knowing full well that condit has had issues with wrestlers)

He actually handled Brock Larson and Jake Ellenberger. He subbed Larson quickly and was able to defend/reverse takedowns against Ellenberger in the 2nd and 3rd round of their fight. I don't think Kim has anything that Condit hasn't seen before. People forget that Condit has great submissions, he just hasn't had any in the UFC.

[RivaTrader]

He actually handled Brock Larson and Jake Ellenberger. He subbed Larson quickly and was able to defend/reverse takedowns against Ellenberger in the 2nd and 3rd round of their fight. I don't think Kim has anything that Condit hasn't seen before. People forget that Condit has great submissions, he just hasn't had any in the UFC.

Ellenberger took the fight on short notice and gassed out towards the end of the fight. So it might not be a very good example of Condit handling wrestlers. Then again, probably Kim will gass out too.

[Vaughany]

UFC 132 Plays so far:


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by Decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.


6.22 units on Wanderlei Silva at +120 to win 7.466 units;

4.853 units on Wanderlei/Leben to not go the Distance at -130 to win 3.733 units;

0.178 units on Leben KO of the Night at +1800 to win 3.204 units;

0.475 units on Leben by KO at +800 to win 3.8 units;


2 units on Wiman at +120 to win 2.4 units;

4.8 units on Wiman/Siver to go the Distance at -120 to win 4 units;

0.067 units on Wiman KO of the Night at +3000 to win 2.01 units;


6.1 units on Stungun by Decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

3.946 units on Condit/Stungun to go the Distance at -150 to win 2.631 units;


0.782 units on Simpson by Decision at +175 to win 1.369 units;

0.357 units on Tavares by KO at +400 to win 1.428 units;


0.05 units on Winner by KO at +900 to win 0.45 units;


Parlay: 6.24 units on Andre Ward & Bader to win 2.476 units;

Parlay: 0.624 units on Guillard, Not Bader by Submission, Not Leben by Submission, Not Faber by Submission, Condit/Stungun Starts Rnd 2, Wiman/Siver goes the distance, Sotiropolous by decision, & Miller/Henderson goes distance to win 4.783 units;

Parlay: 0.1 units on Barnett by Submission, Condit/Stungun to Decision, & Bader by Decision to win 0.931 units.


Also having following parlay that has some UFC 132 fights involved:

4 out of 6 folds parlay: 0.855 units (0.057 units per line) on Barnet/Rogers to not go the Distance, Sturm by Decision, Bader by decision, Wiman by decision, Stungun/Condit goes the Distance, & Davis/Evans goes the Distance to win 13.815 units.


Also have a risk-free arb involving Bader/Tito which will net me just over 9 units if Bader doesn't win by decision and 27 units if Bader does win by decision (won't be included on my record on here).

[jin2daj]

i like bader parlayed with pretty much everything. lol.

[Ladle]

Also have a risk-free arb involving Bader/Tito which will net me just over 9 units if Bader doesn't win by decision and 27 units if Bader does win by decision (won't be included on my record on here).

I have a similar arb, though yours is more profitable than mine both ways. Mine relies on the fight going to decision though, as opposed to Bader by decision. More or less the same thing I suppose!

Man, that -130 line on the fight to go the distance was an absolute dream. In fact, pretty much all of the early lines for that bet were in the -130/-140 region. Crazy value.