Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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  • Vaughany
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 03-07-10
    • 45563

    #1541
    Added more to Rampage KO of the Night so now have:

    0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units.
    Comment
    • Vaughany
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 03-07-10
      • 45563

      #1542
      Adding:

      1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;

      1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;

      0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;

      0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.
      Comment
      • Vaughany
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 03-07-10
        • 45563

        #1543
        Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

        Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


        Single outright plays:

        6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


        4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


        Parlay:

        5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


        Prop plays:

        6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

        11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


        1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

        0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

        0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


        6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

        1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

        3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

        0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

        1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


        0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


        0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

        1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


        3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

        1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


        2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


        0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


        0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


        0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


        0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.
        Comment
        • Mr.Kitty
          SBR MVP
          • 11-10-09
          • 1880

          #1544
          Good luck tonight Vaughany!
          Comment
          • The HOFF
            SBR MVP
            • 07-02-08
            • 4847

            #1545
            I think that Boetsch KO of the night is a real darkhorse. I put half a unit on it for fun yesterday, but only got +1200. Most of the board likes Browne tonight, but if I had to bet, I like Struve. I think that's a good sign for you though because I'm usually wrong going against everyone else.
            Comment
            • Vaughany
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 03-07-10
              • 45563

              #1546
              Originally posted by Vaughany
              Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

              Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


              Single outright plays:

              6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


              4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


              Parlay:

              5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


              Prop plays:

              6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

              11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


              1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

              0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

              0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


              6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

              1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

              3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

              0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

              1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


              0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


              0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

              1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


              3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

              1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


              2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


              0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


              0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


              0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


              0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.
              Adding following parlays:

              3.031 units on Tibau, McDonald, Not Boetsch by Submission, Johnson/Torres starts Rnd 2, Not Stann by Submission, Nelson/Mir starts Rnd 2, & Not Hamill by TKO/KO to win 5.603 units;

              3.031 units on McDonald, Not Johnson by TKO/KO, Not Story inside the distance, Not Mir wins in Rnd 1, & Not Hamill inside the distance to win 2.416 units.

              Good luck all
              Comment
              • TheGovernor11
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-17-08
                • 583

                #1547
                Good luck Vaughany. Haven't been here in a while but you seem to just be murderin it haha.
                Comment
                • Ladle
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 03-21-11
                  • 835

                  #1548
                  Good luck V. Particularly like your parlays and bets on Fight of the Night. Could be another big win tonight.
                  Comment
                  • Vaughany
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 03-07-10
                    • 45563

                    #1549
                    Originally posted by Ladle
                    Good luck V. Particularly like your parlays and bets on Fight of the Night. Could be another big win tonight.
                    Hope so! GL tonight too
                    Comment
                    • TheGovernor11
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-17-08
                      • 583

                      #1550
                      I'm in awe and impressed Vaughany. Just laughing over here at how badly you're killing this.
                      Comment
                      • Vaughany
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 03-07-10
                        • 45563

                        #1551
                        Originally posted by TheGovernor11
                        I'm in awe and impressed Vaughany. Just laughing over here at how badly you're killing this.
                        Thank you Sir
                        Comment
                        • LayingThe$Down
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 03-12-11
                          • 69

                          #1552
                          Great job, V. Excellent work, man. Glad to see you making some profits on the event.

                          Because Mir/Roy dragged me down, I barely won money. Lucky to get out of this one alive, feels like. Glad Browne and Boetsch won, they saved me from a disaster. Wish I bet them larger, and Roy smaller.

                          I feel as if this event was a great opportunity to make good money because there were an unusually large amount of fights with very close odds. Hitting a few of those pays off very well........but despite all that damn time I spent on Roy/Mir, that opportunity was squandered because of the errors in my analysis and reasoning. That fight bummed me.

                          Well, gonna get to work on these next several events. See ya on here soon, man.
                          Comment
                          • Vaughany
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 03-07-10
                            • 45563

                            #1553
                            Originally posted by LayingThe$Down
                            Great job, V. Excellent work, man. Glad to see you making some profits on the event.

                            Because Mir/Roy dragged me down, I barely won money. Lucky to get out of this one alive, feels like. Glad Browne and Boetsch won, they saved me from a disaster. Wish I bet them larger, and Roy smaller.

                            I feel as if this event was a great opportunity to make good money because there were an unusually large amount of fights with very close odds. Hitting a few of those pays off very well........but despite all that damn time I spent on Roy/Mir, that opportunity was squandered because of the errors in my analysis and reasoning. That fight bummed me.

                            Well, gonna get to work on these next several events. See ya on here soon, man.
                            Cheers bro

                            Bad luck with the Nelson bet. One thing I've learnt with Mir is that he's very hard to predict and cap so I try to avoid betting any fights involving him! Against Cro-Cop his take-downs were poor, it didn't seem like he could explode enough and finish his attempts, and now suddenly he was able to take Nelson down with ease. I think Nelson's dodgey knees helped with tht but still I didn't expect Mir to be able to take down Nelson at will like he did. Still, plenty of events coming up to make up for tht loss
                            Comment
                            • Vaughany
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 03-07-10
                              • 45563

                              #1554
                              haha Nice
                              Comment
                              • Vaughany
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 03-07-10
                                • 45563

                                #1555
                                Originally posted by Vaughany
                                Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

                                Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


                                Single outright plays:

                                6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


                                4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


                                Parlay:

                                5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


                                Prop plays:

                                6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

                                11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


                                1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

                                0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

                                0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


                                6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

                                1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

                                3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

                                0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

                                1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


                                0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


                                0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

                                1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


                                3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

                                1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


                                2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


                                0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


                                0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


                                0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


                                0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.
                                Originally posted by Vaughany
                                Adding following parlays:

                                3.031 units on Tibau, McDonald, Not Boetsch by Submission, Johnson/Torres starts Rnd 2, Not Stann by Submission, Nelson/Mir starts Rnd 2, & Not Hamill by TKO/KO to win 5.603 units;

                                3.031 units on McDonald, Not Johnson by TKO/KO, Not Story inside the distance, Not Mir wins in Rnd 1, & Not Hamill inside the distance to win 2.416 units.
                                UFC 130 Results (excluding arbs):

                                Total stake: 65.462 units

                                Return: 110.539 units

                                Profit: +45.077 units
                                Comment
                                • The HOFF
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 07-02-08
                                  • 4847

                                  #1556
                                  Very well done again. I thought you might have been in trouble when Struve locked up that Anaconda choke.
                                  Comment
                                  • Ladle
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-21-11
                                    • 835

                                    #1557
                                    Originally posted by Vaughany
                                    Profit: +45.077 units
                                    Comment
                                    • Vaughany
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 03-07-10
                                      • 45563

                                      #1558
                                      Originally posted by The HOFF
                                      Very well done again. I thought you might have been in trouble when Struve locked up that Anaconda choke.
                                      Cheers bro! I wasn't too concerned, always confident that Browne would be able to deal with Struve on the ground, was more worried with McDonald almost losing against Cariaso due to his inexperience! My profits would of been halved if he'd not got the win.
                                      Comment
                                      • spurginobili
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-09-09
                                        • 3065

                                        #1559
                                        Nice job Vaughany. I did good too, but not as well as you. Congratulations.
                                        Do you have anything on Dream 17?
                                        Comment
                                        • Vaughany
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 03-07-10
                                          • 45563

                                          #1560
                                          Originally posted by spurginobili
                                          Nice job Vaughany. I did good too, but not as well as you. Congratulations.
                                          Do you have anything on Dream 17?
                                          Thanks man, nah nothing on Dream, not had time to look into it and don't wanna make any plays just for the sake of it!
                                          Comment
                                          • LayingThe$Down
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 03-12-11
                                            • 69

                                            #1561
                                            Originally posted by Vaughany
                                            Cheers bro

                                            Bad luck with the Nelson bet. One thing I've learnt with Mir is that he's very hard to predict and cap so I try to avoid betting any fights involving him! Against Cro-Cop his take-downs were poor, it didn't seem like he could explode enough and finish his attempts, and now suddenly he was able to take Nelson down with ease. I think Nelson's dodgey knees helped with tht but still I didn't expect Mir to be able to take down Nelson at will like he did. Still, plenty of events coming up to make up for tht loss
                                            Cool, man. Yeah, like you avoid Mir, I avoid Bisping. Just can't be objective, dislike him too much.

                                            Gonna get working on the next few events. Look forward to your opinions, as always.

                                            Again, great job! 45 units......
                                            Comment
                                            • Poppa Catfish
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-22-10
                                              • 3352

                                              #1562
                                              Job well done, wish I had tailed you on the Browne play but I took the chicken way out with the fight going under 2 rounds.
                                              Comment
                                              • GunShard
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-05-10
                                                • 10031

                                                #1563
                                                Very nice plays.
                                                Comment
                                                • Vaughany
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                  • 45563

                                                  #1564
                                                  Record Review:

                                                  Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

                                                  Bellator 26: +0.45 units
                                                  UFC 118: +6.11 units
                                                  MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
                                                  UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
                                                  UFC 119: +1.5 units
                                                  WEC 51: +1.07 units
                                                  Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
                                                  Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
                                                  UFC 120: -0.589 units
                                                  UFC 121: +9.011 units
                                                  WEC 52: -1.274 units
                                                  UFC 122: +17.355 units
                                                  Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
                                                  UFC 123: +1.609 units
                                                  TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
                                                  K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
                                                  UFC 124: +5.135 units
                                                  WEC 53: +0.059 units
                                                  Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
                                                  UFC 125: +3.095 units
                                                  UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
                                                  UFC 126: +24.577 units
                                                  Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
                                                  MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
                                                  BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
                                                  UFC 127: +10.945 units
                                                  UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
                                                  Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
                                                  UFC 128: +22.131 units
                                                  Bellator 38: +4.875 units
                                                  UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
                                                  Bellator 40: +2.325 units
                                                  Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
                                                  Bellator 41: -0.7 units
                                                  UFC 129: +77.484 units
                                                  UFC 130: +45.077 units (excluding arbs)

                                                  Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +323.8 units

                                                  Single outright plays (since UFC Live on Versus 3): +30.074 units (7/10) (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante, Semerzier, Chandler, Foster, Robichaux, Menjivar, Stann, Browne).

                                                  Great weekend for me, got 2 out of 2 money line picks right with Browne and Stann, & 3 out of 3 parlays cashed. On top of the +45.077 units I also made a further 5.585 units from Rampage by decision arb, and additional 13.235 units from Thompson TKO'ing Mo Harris. So 63.897 units profit in total for the weekend. Next up TUF 13 Finale, big plays will be Pettis/Guida to decision, Pettis/Guida FOTN, Jeremy Stephens by TKO/KO and/or Stephens KOTN, Kingsbury by dec, Grispi/Jorgensen double.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • THE_LOCKSMITH
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 08-25-08
                                                    • 7237

                                                    #1565
                                                    congrats man you're crushing the UFC events, and there is 4 UFC and 1 StrikeForce events 5 weeks in a row next
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Vaughany
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 03-07-10
                                                      • 45563

                                                      #1566
                                                      Gokhan Saki's fight from last night vs Guidon...

                                                      Comment
                                                      • Eccocide
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                        • 2126

                                                        #1567
                                                        Very nice V. Looks like a lot of ppl had solid nights. Too bad I didnt jump on the Browne bandwagon lol.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • snake11eyes
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 07-28-10
                                                          • 618

                                                          #1568
                                                          Another solid night V. business as usual. I wish I would have followed on Browne as well, but still had a decent night.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hannibal
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-15-11
                                                            • 1055

                                                            #1569
                                                            Vaughany:

                                                            Thanks for browne! Had me worried when the fight got started. I was surprised struve's 6'11 seemed sooo much bigger than 6'7 browne.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • The HOFF
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-02-08
                                                              • 4847

                                                              #1570
                                                              I love that Grispi/Jorgensen double. I actually was looking at the TUF card last night looking for future bets and thought about that exact same play. Hopefully we know which TUF fighters besides the finalists will be on the card after Wed's show.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RaiderNation MMA
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 11-05-10
                                                                • 598

                                                                #1571
                                                                whats the next travis browne type play
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ufcmma36
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-22-10
                                                                  • 1065

                                                                  #1572
                                                                  great job bro!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Chairib
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 03-08-10
                                                                    • 917

                                                                    #1573
                                                                    I love using Harai Goshi on an opponent who got both underhooks on me. Quick transition to full mount as well.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NickDiaz209
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 05-22-11
                                                                      • 438

                                                                      #1574
                                                                      Originally posted by RaiderNation MMA
                                                                      whats the next travis browne type play
                                                                      Rashad over Jones by brutal KO
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Vaughany
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 03-07-10
                                                                        • 45563

                                                                        #1575
                                                                        Originally posted by RaiderNation MMA
                                                                        whats the next travis browne type play
                                                                        Cheick Kongooooooo!
                                                                        Comment
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