Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Added more to Rampage KO of the Night so now have:

0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;

1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;

0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;

0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


Single outright plays:

6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


Parlay:

5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


Prop plays:

6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.

[Mr.Kitty]

Good luck tonight Vaughany!

[The HOFF]

I think that Boetsch KO of the night is a real darkhorse. I put half a unit on it for fun yesterday, but only got +1200. Most of the board likes Browne tonight, but if I had to bet, I like Struve. I think that's a good sign for you though because I'm usually wrong going against everyone else.

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


Single outright plays:

6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


Parlay:

5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


Prop plays:

6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.

Adding following parlays:

3.031 units on Tibau, McDonald, Not Boetsch by Submission, Johnson/Torres starts Rnd 2, Not Stann by Submission, Nelson/Mir starts Rnd 2, & Not Hamill by TKO/KO to win 5.603 units;

3.031 units on McDonald, Not Johnson by TKO/KO, Not Story inside the distance, Not Mir wins in Rnd 1, & Not Hamill inside the distance to win 2.416 units.

Good luck all

[TheGovernor11]

Good luck Vaughany. Haven't been here in a while but you seem to just be murderin it haha.

[Ladle]

Good luck V. Particularly like your parlays and bets on Fight of the Night. Could be another big win tonight.

[Vaughany]

Good luck V. Particularly like your parlays and bets on Fight of the Night. Could be another big win tonight.

Hope so! GL tonight too

[TheGovernor11]

I'm in awe and impressed Vaughany. Just laughing over here at how badly you're killing this.

[Vaughany]

I'm in awe and impressed Vaughany. Just laughing over here at how badly you're killing this.

Thank you Sir

[LayingThe$Down]

Great job, V. Excellent work, man. Glad to see you making some profits on the event.

Because Mir/Roy dragged me down, I barely won money. Lucky to get out of this one alive, feels like. Glad Browne and Boetsch won, they saved me from a disaster. Wish I bet them larger, and Roy smaller.

I feel as if this event was a great opportunity to make good money because there were an unusually large amount of fights with very close odds. Hitting a few of those pays off very well........but despite all that damn time I spent on Roy/Mir, that opportunity was squandered because of the errors in my analysis and reasoning. That fight bummed me.

Well, gonna get to work on these next several events. See ya on here soon, man.

[Vaughany]

Great job, V. Excellent work, man. Glad to see you making some profits on the event.

Because Mir/Roy dragged me down, I barely won money. Lucky to get out of this one alive, feels like. Glad Browne and Boetsch won, they saved me from a disaster. Wish I bet them larger, and Roy smaller.

I feel as if this event was a great opportunity to make good money because there were an unusually large amount of fights with very close odds. Hitting a few of those pays off very well........but despite all that damn time I spent on Roy/Mir, that opportunity was squandered because of the errors in my analysis and reasoning. That fight bummed me.

Well, gonna get to work on these next several events. See ya on here soon, man.

Cheers bro

Bad luck with the Nelson bet. One thing I've learnt with Mir is that he's very hard to predict and cap so I try to avoid betting any fights involving him! Against Cro-Cop his take-downs were poor, it didn't seem like he could explode enough and finish his attempts, and now suddenly he was able to take Nelson down with ease. I think Nelson's dodgey knees helped with tht but still I didn't expect Mir to be able to take down Nelson at will like he did. Still, plenty of events coming up to make up for tht loss

[Vaughany]

haha Nice

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


Single outright plays:

6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


Parlay:

5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


Prop plays:

6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.

Adding following parlays:

3.031 units on Tibau, McDonald, Not Boetsch by Submission, Johnson/Torres starts Rnd 2, Not Stann by Submission, Nelson/Mir starts Rnd 2, & Not Hamill by TKO/KO to win 5.603 units;

3.031 units on McDonald, Not Johnson by TKO/KO, Not Story inside the distance, Not Mir wins in Rnd 1, & Not Hamill inside the distance to win 2.416 units.

UFC 130 Results (excluding arbs):

Total stake: 65.462 units

Return: 110.539 units

Profit: +45.077 units

[The HOFF]

Very well done again. I thought you might have been in trouble when Struve locked up that Anaconda choke.

[Ladle]

Profit: +45.077 units

[Vaughany]

Very well done again. I thought you might have been in trouble when Struve locked up that Anaconda choke.

Cheers bro! I wasn't too concerned, always confident that Browne would be able to deal with Struve on the ground, was more worried with McDonald almost losing against Cariaso due to his inexperience! My profits would of been halved if he'd not got the win.

[spurginobili]

Nice job Vaughany. I did good too, but not as well as you. Congratulations.
Do you have anything on Dream 17?

[Vaughany]

Nice job Vaughany. I did good too, but not as well as you. Congratulations.
Do you have anything on Dream 17?

Thanks man, nah nothing on Dream, not had time to look into it and don't wanna make any plays just for the sake of it!

[LayingThe$Down]

Cheers bro

Bad luck with the Nelson bet. One thing I've learnt with Mir is that he's very hard to predict and cap so I try to avoid betting any fights involving him! Against Cro-Cop his take-downs were poor, it didn't seem like he could explode enough and finish his attempts, and now suddenly he was able to take Nelson down with ease. I think Nelson's dodgey knees helped with tht but still I didn't expect Mir to be able to take down Nelson at will like he did. Still, plenty of events coming up to make up for tht loss

Cool, man. Yeah, like you avoid Mir, I avoid Bisping. Just can't be objective, dislike him too much.

Gonna get working on the next few events. Look forward to your opinions, as always.

Again, great job! 45 units......

[Poppa Catfish]

Job well done, wish I had tailed you on the Browne play but I took the chicken way out with the fight going under 2 rounds.

[GunShard]

Very nice plays.

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units
UFC 130: +45.077 units (excluding arbs)

Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +323.8 units

Single outright plays (since UFC Live on Versus 3): +30.074 units (7/10) (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante, Semerzier, Chandler, Foster, Robichaux, Menjivar, Stann, Browne).

Great weekend for me, got 2 out of 2 money line picks right with Browne and Stann, & 3 out of 3 parlays cashed. On top of the +45.077 units I also made a further 5.585 units from Rampage by decision arb, and additional 13.235 units from Thompson TKO'ing Mo Harris. So 63.897 units profit in total for the weekend. Next up TUF 13 Finale, big plays will be Pettis/Guida to decision, Pettis/Guida FOTN, Jeremy Stephens by TKO/KO and/or Stephens KOTN, Kingsbury by dec, Grispi/Jorgensen double.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

congrats man you're crushing the UFC events, and there is 4 UFC and 1 StrikeForce events 5 weeks in a row next

[Vaughany]

Gokhan Saki's fight from last night vs Guidon...

[Eccocide]

Very nice V. Looks like a lot of ppl had solid nights. Too bad I didnt jump on the Browne bandwagon lol.

[snake11eyes]

Another solid night V. business as usual. I wish I would have followed on Browne as well, but still had a decent night.

[Hannibal]

Vaughany:

Thanks for browne! Had me worried when the fight got started. I was surprised struve's 6'11 seemed sooo much bigger than 6'7 browne.

[The HOFF]

I love that Grispi/Jorgensen double. I actually was looking at the TUF card last night looking for future bets and thought about that exact same play. Hopefully we know which TUF fighters besides the finalists will be on the card after Wed's show.

[RaiderNation MMA]

whats the next travis browne type play

[ufcmma36]

great job bro!!!

[Chairib]

I love using Harai Goshi on an opponent who got both underhooks on me. Quick transition to full mount as well.

[NickDiaz209]

whats the next travis browne type play

Rashad over Jones by brutal KO

[Vaughany]

whats the next travis browne type play

Cheick Kongooooooo!