Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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  • Mr.Kitty
    SBR MVP
    • 11-10-09
    • 1880

    #1401
    This was the best event in a long time, dident watch until the end tho, got way too tired . Gonna watch the whole thing next weekend. Nice profit for me so I couldent be more satisfyed hitting the FOTN and all my main bets , looks like you made a killing yourself! Good job and nice rebound from last event
    Comment
    • Vaughany
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 03-07-10
      • 45563

      #1402
      UFC 129 Review:

      Originally posted by Vaughany
      Final Summary of UFC 129 Plays:


      12.6 units on GSP/Shields to go the distance at -114 to win 11.025 units;

      6.157 units on GSP/Shields to not go the distance at +205 to win 12.622 units;

      7.2 units on GSP/Shields to go the distance at -114 to win 6.3 units;

      6.157 units on GSP/Shields to not go the distance at +175 to win 10.775 units;


      17.512 units on Not Machida by decision at -286 to win 6.123 units;

      5.1 units on Machida by decision at +350 to win 17.85 units;

      14.695 units on Not Machida by decision at -240 to win 6.123 units;

      4.2 units on Machida by decision at +350 to win 14.7 units;


      15.726 units on Ellenberger/Pierson to go the distance at -105 to win 14.977 units;

      14.8 units on Ellenberger/Pierson to not go the distance at +125 to win 18.5 units;


      2.667 units on Henderson by TKO/KO or Decision at +187.5 to win 5 units;

      2.5 units on Bocek at +110 to win 2.75 units;


      5.667 units on Bocek/Henderson to go the distance at Evens to win 5.667 units;

      5.5 units on Bocek/Henderson to not go the distance at +110 to win 6.05 units;


      0.288 units on Macdonald by decision at +500 to win 1.44 units;


      0.267 units on Aldo Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 4.806 units;


      0.066 units on Shields Submission of the Night at +2500 to win 1.65 units;


      2.006 units on Jensen/MacDonald to not go the distance at -150 to win 1.337 units;


      1.359 units on Patrick/Roberts to go the distance at Evens to win 1.359 units;


      1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units;


      1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units;


      5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or decision at -150 to win 3.462 units;


      2.727 units on Diaz/Macdonald to go the distance at +150 to win 4.091 units;


      1.4 units on Aldo KO of the Night at +500 to win 7 units;


      3.6 units on Machida KO of the Night at +550 to win 19.8 units;


      0.3 units on Jensen Quickest TKO/KO of the Night at +1500 to win 4.493 units;


      4.05 units on Menjivar at -135 to win 3 units;

      5 units on Menjivar at -143 to win 3.5 units;


      Parlay: 8.897 units on Aldo & GSP to win 4.385 units;


      0.599 units on Aldo by submission at +1200 to win 7.189 units.
      Originally posted by Vaughany
      Adding:

      2.5 units on Machida by TKO/KO at +130 to win 3.25 units;

      2.996 units on Diaz/MacDonald to go the distance at +120 to win 3.595 units;

      Parlay: 2.996 units on GSP/Shields starts Rnd 3, Bocek/Henderson starts Rnd 2, & Diaz/Macdonald starts Rnd 2 to win 3.204 units;

      And forgot to add a couple plays I made ages ago:

      0.5 units on Aldo by decision at +800 to win 4 units;


      5.991 units on Bocek/Henderson to go the distance at +170 to win 10.185 units;

      7 units on Bocek/Henderson to not go the distance at +110 to win 7.7 units;


      6.2 units on Machida/Couture to not go the distance at +160 to win 9.92 units;

      6.213 units on Machida/Couture to go the distance at +137.5 to win 8.543 units;

      6.2 units on Machida/Couture to not go the distance at +125 to win 7.75 units;

      7.5 units on Machida/Couture to go the distance at +120 to win 9 units;


      Pending Parlay: 0.613 units on Amir Kahn, Freire, Warren, & GSP to win 0.703 units.
      UFC 129 Results:


      Total stake: 206.749 units

      Total return: 284.233 units

      Profit: +77.484 units

      Awesome event and close to perfect night for me betting wise...Machida getting KO of the Night helped a lot! All props came through with Macdonald gettin decision, Aldo decision, GSP decision, Jensen/Macdonald not goin distance, Ellenberger/Pierson not goin distance, Patrick/Roberts goin distance, Henderson decision and straight up money line play on Menjivar. Cant wait till the May to July period now when they'll be 6 events in space of 5 weeks!
      Comment
      • urge2kill
        SBR MVP
        • 10-27-09
        • 1722

        #1403
        Great job V
        Comment
        • xelance
          SBR MVP
          • 11-25-10
          • 1750

          #1404
          pretty bad night for me, only won machida KO of the night and machida inside the distance...lost about 5 units. Great job V
          Comment
          • marzenabudzinska
            SBR Rookie
            • 03-17-11
            • 47

            #1405
            nice job vaughany,,,awesome night yoy had! i just wonder where the hell you are able to bet all those kind of a varety of bets,,,,my books,only show the winner,draw or lost....and the odds are so small that is not possible to make any profit,,,i did not bet a single fight but are happy for you winning,,i love when any of us have the confidence in betting the books,that you show in yr comments!..i check out pinny,,only a copule of prop bets,bet online, maybe a little better..,bet 365 sucks for this,,,eurobet nothing at all..i wonder where you get all those bets,,,is awesome it sounds as if this game was made out for you,,,i know i not easy,,,,how did you master this? just by watching.....
            Comment
            • BIGDAY
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 02-17-10
              • 48245

              #1406
              Good Work!
              I also had a great night. Ellenberger was a pretty large play for me last night.
              Comment
              • Jordan23
                SBR MVP
                • 04-26-10
                • 1227

                #1407
                Man what an awesome night. Your best night yet?
                Comment
                • Vaughany
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 03-07-10
                  • 45563

                  #1408
                  Originally posted by Mr.Kitty
                  This was the best event in a long time, dident watch until the end tho, got way too tired . Gonna watch the whole thing next weekend. Nice profit for me so I couldent be more satisfyed hitting the FOTN and all my main bets , looks like you made a killing yourself! Good job and nice rebound from last event
                  Nice one, yeah was was of the best events ever IMO...rarely do u see tht many crazy finishes...on any other night likes of Ellenberger, Vlad or Menjivar would of KO of the Night, nevermind Makdessi and Machida!

                  Originally posted by urge2kill
                  Great job V
                  Cheers fella

                  Originally posted by xelance
                  pretty bad night for me, only won machida KO of the night and machida inside the distance...lost about 5 units. Great job V
                  Unlucky bro, plenty of events coming up over next couple of months tho to bounce back on.
                  Originally posted by BIGDAY
                  Good Work!
                  I also had a great night. Ellenberger was a pretty large play for me last night.
                  I thought Ellenberger was gonna have more trouble with Pierson last night but Pierson's poor defence and Jake's serious KO power squashed tht inclination! Gd job man.
                  Comment
                  • Vaughany
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 03-07-10
                    • 45563

                    #1409
                    Originally posted by Jordan23
                    Man what an awesome night. Your best night yet?
                    Awesome fights for sure and yeah best night for me so far
                    Comment
                    • Vaughany
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 03-07-10
                      • 45563

                      #1410
                      Record Review:

                      Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

                      Bellator 26: +0.45 units
                      UFC 118: +6.11 units
                      MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
                      UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
                      UFC 119: +1.5 units
                      WEC 51: +1.07 units
                      Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
                      Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
                      UFC 120: -0.589 units
                      UFC 121: +9.011 units
                      WEC 52: -1.274 units
                      UFC 122: +17.355 units
                      Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
                      UFC 123: +1.609 units
                      TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
                      K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
                      UFC 124: +5.135 units
                      WEC 53: +0.059 units
                      Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
                      UFC 125: +3.095 units
                      UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
                      UFC 126: +24.577 units
                      Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
                      MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
                      BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
                      UFC 127: +10.945 units
                      UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
                      Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
                      UFC 128: +22.131 units
                      Bellator 38: +4.875 units
                      UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
                      Bellator 40: +2.325 units
                      Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
                      Bellator 41: -0.7 units
                      UFC 129: +77.484 units

                      Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +278.723 units
                      Comment
                      • GoGoGadget
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-18-09
                        • 570

                        #1411
                        Whats the point in including the arbs? I think it would be cool to at least have a separate record for just your fight/prop picks not including the free money arbs.
                        Congrats on the win
                        Comment
                        • spargament
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-22-09
                          • 1739

                          #1412
                          helluva night v. i tip my hat, props.
                          Comment
                          • Chairib
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-08-10
                            • 917

                            #1413
                            first time slammer
                            Comment
                            • Vaughany
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 03-07-10
                              • 45563

                              #1414
                              Originally posted by GoGoGadget
                              Whats the point in including the arbs? I think it would be cool to at least have a separate record for just your fight/prop picks not including the free money arbs.
                              Congrats on the win
                              Mainly just to show how easy it can actually be to make profits from betting on MMA, and sometimes I'll make a play without the intention of arbing and post it on here, but then due to line movement changes make the decision to arb out for guaranteed no risk play...such as with the Henderson/Bocek fight goin the distance last night. I've also just been lazy and not been updating my own spreadsheet and so have been using this to record every play I make. I will probably start just showing my single moneyline plays and prop plays on here in future and leave the arbs for my own spreadsheet records. I did start showing a separate record on here for just moneyline plays and props a few events ago and will update that tomorrow, just takes a while going through all my plays and finding motivation and time to do it!
                              Comment
                              • Vaughany
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 03-07-10
                                • 45563

                                #1415
                                Originally posted by spargament
                                helluva night v. i tip my hat, props.
                                Thank you squire!
                                Comment
                                • Ladle
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-21-11
                                  • 835

                                  #1416
                                  Really fantastic job on this card bro. Great stuff.

                                  I was looking at a +13 unit night until Brilz got wiped out by Matyushenko. Stupid hedge ruined everything and caused me to more or less break even. Definitely put way too much money on that fight, but I guess I've learned my lesson.
                                  Comment
                                  • Vaughany
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 03-07-10
                                    • 45563

                                    #1417
                                    Originally posted by Ladle
                                    Really fantastic job on this card bro. Great stuff.

                                    I was looking at a +13 unit night until Brilz got wiped out by Matyushenko. Stupid hedge ruined everything and caused me to more or less break even. Definitely put way too much money on that fight, but I guess I've learned my lesson.
                                    Cheers mate, yeah that Matyushenko finish was a big surprise. I was in similar situation with the Diaz/Daley hedge that I did on last event, got screwed over by Diaz not winning by sub or decision, except tht was not as solid as ur hedge as chances of Diaz finishing Daley with strikes was greater then Vlad finishing Brilz by TKO/KO! Plenty of events coming up for u to bounce back on tho! U gonna be on Travis Browne to beat Struve?
                                    Comment
                                    • Ladle
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 03-21-11
                                      • 835

                                      #1418
                                      Originally posted by Vaughany
                                      Cheers mate, yeah that Matyushenko finish was a big surprise. I was in similar situation with the Diaz/Daley hedge that I did on last event, got screwed over by Diaz not winning by sub or decision, except tht was not as solid as ur hedge as chances of Diaz finishing Daley with strikes was greater then Vlad finishing Brilz by TKO/KO! Plenty of events coming up for u to bounce back on tho! U gonna be on Travis Browne to beat Struve?
                                      Yes, plenty of events coming up! And I certainly will be betting on Browne. I'm thinking he'll come out as the dog too.
                                      Comment
                                      • Vaughany
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 03-07-10
                                        • 45563

                                        #1419
                                        Originally posted by Ladle
                                        Yes, plenty of events coming up! And I certainly will be betting on Browne. I'm thinking he'll come out as the dog too.
                                        Good to hear, and yeah I'm hoping he'll come out at +110 to +125 range with Struve at -140 to -160 or something. He was +150 dog against Kongo so not totally irrational to think he'll be dog against Struve as well who is at similar position in the HW rankings to Kongo but coming in with a 2 fight win-streak.
                                        Comment
                                        • Vaughany
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 03-07-10
                                          • 45563

                                          #1420
                                          Originally posted by Vaughany
                                          Record Review:

                                          Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

                                          Bellator 26: +0.45 units
                                          UFC 118: +6.11 units
                                          MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
                                          UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
                                          UFC 119: +1.5 units
                                          WEC 51: +1.07 units
                                          Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
                                          Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
                                          UFC 120: -0.589 units
                                          UFC 121: +9.011 units
                                          WEC 52: -1.274 units
                                          UFC 122: +17.355 units
                                          Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
                                          UFC 123: +1.609 units
                                          TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
                                          K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
                                          UFC 124: +5.135 units
                                          WEC 53: +0.059 units
                                          Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
                                          UFC 125: +3.095 units
                                          UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
                                          UFC 126: +24.577 units
                                          Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
                                          MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
                                          BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
                                          UFC 127: +10.945 units
                                          UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
                                          Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
                                          UFC 128: +22.131 units
                                          Bellator 38: +4.875 units
                                          UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
                                          Bellator 40: +2.325 units
                                          Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
                                          Bellator 41: -0.7 units
                                          UFC 129: +77.484 units

                                          Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +278.723 units

                                          Single outright plays (since UFC Live on Versus 3): +17.713 units (5/8) (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante, Semerzier, Chandler, Foster, Robichaux, Menjivar).
                                          Comment
                                          • bjpenn85
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-17-11
                                            • 5059

                                            #1421
                                            My best night as well. 50 units up. woho!
                                            Comment
                                            • bjpenn85
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-17-11
                                              • 5059

                                              #1422
                                              what about betting against cody mckenzie?
                                              Comment
                                              • Vaughany
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 03-07-10
                                                • 45563

                                                #1423
                                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                what about betting against cody mckenzie?
                                                Yeah I'll be putting at least 5 units (possibly 10) on a Palaszewski and Mayday McDonald double as I expect both of them to be at -225 to -300 range so not worth single plays. Palaszewski is a BJJ black-belt with an abundance of experience so I find it hard to imagine Mckenzie choking him out - and obviously Bart has a big stand-up advantage. Cariaso has decent muay-thai but his grappling is no way near Mayday's level and Mayday can probably get the better of him standing as well I think due to his speed and movement.

                                                Also gonna be pretty big on Browne, possibly hedged with Struve Submission of the Night to be safe

                                                Torres/Johnson to decision or Mightymouse by decision will also be big plays

                                                Renan Barao Submission of the Night, Mayday and Grove could be good bets to get SOTN tho

                                                Rampage KO of the Night and Fight to go the distance hedge

                                                Mir/Nelson to go the distance at +200 or better

                                                Already got some on Edgar/Maynard going the distance and Story/Alves going distance.
                                                Comment
                                                • bjpenn85
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-17-11
                                                  • 5059

                                                  #1424
                                                  Sounds good. Macdonald though looked good in the first round. But after that was scary. I may be a bit cautious but at this point after the last fight i feel like he gassed and didnt fight as good, what are your take on that?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vaughany
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 03-07-10
                                                    • 45563

                                                    #1425
                                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                    Sounds good. Macdonald though looked good in the first round. But after that was scary. I may be a bit cautious but at this point after the last fight i feel like he gassed and didnt fight as good, what are your take on that?
                                                    Figueroa had great resilience and sub defence, and the triangle and arm-bar attempts during majority of second round contributed a lot to Mayday getting tired and looking gassed out in final round, yet he was still able to get several takedowns even after being rocked by Figueroa. I don't see Mayday having the same trouble with finishing Cariaso once he takes it to the ground.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                      • 5059

                                                      #1426
                                                      Nice. I dont have anything else to add. I cant see other tempting bets beside what you wrote, and am out.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bjpenn85
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-17-11
                                                        • 5059

                                                        #1427
                                                        and maybe a small bet on hamill decision 6.50 @paddy?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bjpenn85
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-17-11
                                                          • 5059

                                                          #1428
                                                          haha, the limit is 3 euros. greedy bitches.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bjpenn85
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 02-17-11
                                                            • 5059

                                                            #1429
                                                            Vaugh, which betting sites do you use for props besides paddy?

                                                            It seems like paddy have limits from 3-20 euros range on next card. Unacceptable limits imo. No point offering bets then.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bjpenn85
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 02-17-11
                                                              • 5059

                                                              #1430
                                                              Off course 5dimes, but most bets are not available for next card on 5dimes at the moment
                                                              Comment
                                                              • terpkeg
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-26-09
                                                                • 2364

                                                                #1431
                                                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                haha, the limit is 3 euros. greedy bitches.

                                                                No point in betting those limits as you dont want to help them set their line. Maybe your account is just flagged. Everyone have same limits there?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Vaughany
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                                  • 45563

                                                                  #1432
                                                                  Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                  Vaugh, which betting sites do you use for props besides paddy?

                                                                  It seems like paddy have limits from 3-20 euros range on next card. Unacceptable limits imo. No point offering bets then.
                                                                  Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Stanjames, and William Hill but they won't have props available until the week of the card. Have u been signed up to paddy for a while and placed a lot of bets? You dont usually get limitted until uve won a couple hundred from them.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • bjpenn85
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 02-17-11
                                                                    • 5059

                                                                    #1433
                                                                    I won 200 euros at paddypower last event. So thats why i all the wagers are like 3 to 18 euros? cause im flagged? **** me hard in the ass. I won a couple of hundred euros on 5dimes as well, do you get limited there also?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Ladle
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-21-11
                                                                      • 835

                                                                      #1434
                                                                      Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                      I won 200 euros at paddypower last event. So thats why i all the wagers are like 3 to 18 euros? cause im flagged? **** me hard in the ass. I won a couple of hundred euros on 5dimes as well, do you get limited there also?
                                                                      Not as badly as you do on Paddy. I've been limited to £60 on 5dimes props in the past, whereas I've been limited to £3 on some Paddy props before. The strict restrictions don't last forever, but you can expect to have them temporarily imposed after you take them to the cleaners a few times.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • bjpenn85
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 02-17-11
                                                                        • 5059

                                                                        #1435
                                                                        take them to the cleaners? as i am not english nor american, these are the types of phrases that intellectually makes me look like a three year old, come again please?

                                                                        AND, how long can i expekt to have this curse over my head? Do they suddenly remove the limit, if i continue winning?
                                                                        Comment
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