I really need a Euro beard.
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o i see. yeah +3300 is very appealing
but hunt is a k1 champ! i think sbr had him at +190 so i went all in
im more of a predict who will win guy, the numbers still confuse me....
noob question of the day.....
whats arb......Comment -
ha yeah I forgot about my SBR points, should of put them on some of the underdogs on tht undercard.
Arb (arbitrage betting)/arbing is basically betting markets due to bookmakers' different opinions on event outcomes, or taking under-valued openers that u expect will change significantly later on and therefore be able to bet on the opponent (or opposite) so that it is a risk free play. So you're using the differences in the odds provided by bookmakers on selected events to make yourself a guaranteed RISK FREE profit. So for example's sake, Bookmaker may have Shogun at +175 whilst Pinnacle may have Jon Jones at -165. It would be possible to play both of these with no risk of losing money, although in this case the guaranteed profit margin would be very low even if you put a grand on each so would not be worth it. You'll get greater potential guaranteed profit margin by catching the openers and judging line movement. For instance, when Jeremy Stephens ridiculously came out as on Sportsbook as a +110 underdog against Marcus Davis it was quite obvious that that line was way off and that it would get hammered. So even if u personally thought Davis would win the fight, an experienced arbitrage bettor would hammer that Stephens line with as much $ as possible, as it was a 99% certainty tht Stephens would end up a considerably big favourite - which of course ended up happening with Davis reaching +260 underdog on Pinnacle by fight time. So if u'd caught tht opener and put $500 on Stephens at +110 u'd of been in a very nice position as u could of "arbed" out with Davis at +260 for a substantial guaranteed profit. So to be able to be successful with arb betting u really need to have numerous accounts with different books and also a good understanding of potential line movement. There's a chance that a good arb opportunity may present itself this week with the Chris Weidman vs Sakara fight. If Weidman comes out as a dog against Sakara before their fight on Thursday, it would be smart to hammer his line as he has a lot of hype and superior wrestling to Sakara so will probably end up being the favourite.Comment -
ooooooo i see i seee
so basically your just scanning all the books for lines you think will flip flop and then you bet against that so you cant really lose. i think i understand now!
man i just broke that down in my mind, thats crazy good how ppl do that
u seem like a very experienced dude, its good to have guys like u around to help teach as im still kinda young and learning the game.Comment -
so just to clarify
if anderson silva came out as a +500
i would put 100 on him
then after awhile it shifted so GSP is at +250
i put 100 on him too
that way if gsp loses i make my 500
but if ando loses i still make 250?
is that right?Comment -
So how long is that SF heavyweight tournament money tied up for
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Almost, when you say make do you mean overall return or actual profit? If you mean return then you are correct, but if you mean profit than you have to remember that no matter who wins u'l be losing one half of the total 200 stake (as u'd have 100 on Fighter A and 100 on Fighter B) and you wouldn't coutn your original 100 stake on Anderson. So if Anderson won u'd have a return of 600 (100 stake plus 500 winnings), but of course u'd lose the 100 that u had on GSP so ur actual profit would be 400 (600 minus 100 stake on Anderson = 500, minus 100 stake on GSP = 400). If GSP won your actual profit would be 150 as u'd have 350 return (stake of 100 plus 250 winnings)...350 minus the stake of 100 and stake of 100 for Anderson bet would give you 150 profit.Comment -
If you want to place anymore future SF tournament bets, and this goes for all not just Vaughany, you can do so at the brand new betting site called Poppa C's bank account.
Remember when ze SF > UFC crew was talking non stop about how awesome this tournament was, uh yeah......Comment -
Hey V, what do you think about Roller/Tavares? I'm considering hitting up Roller based on his wrestling. He's seen some slight movement on him since opening right around even at most books and I don't wanna end up paying more juice if it keeps moving.Comment -
I'm really not sure about this one, I lean Roller because like u say the wrestling advantage, only concern is his cardio and Tavares isn't exactly going to be easy to dominate on the ground. I agree tho tht if u are gonna take him probly best to do it soon (-106 on sportbet) as he'll probly get more action than Tavares.Comment -
Wow, looks like the Lytle surgery rumours were indeed true... http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/02/2...rgery-ufc-127/
I should of looked in to it more perhaps!Comment -
ooo i see yeah i meant return but i see what ur saying now with profit. sweet i got itComment -
I don't think Roller will be able to keep Tavares down. He'll probably get a few takedowns but gas himself out in the process. Roller's top control and ground game is too sloppy to handle Tavares imo.Comment -
Ya I lean Tavares in this fight. He's improved a lot.Comment -
so what are your picks for this next fight night?Comment -
There isn't much to choose from at the moment with only 3 fights' lines out. I like Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision a lot, will probly be -225 though so will most likely include it in at least 2 parlays. Also expect Munoz/Dolloway to go decision, possibly hedged with Munoz KO of the Night. With regards to the rest of the lines that will be released this evening, I'm hoping to get Weidman and Dongi Yang at undervalued openers but wouldnt be surprised if they both come out as big favourites due to Weidman's hype and Kimmons' poor form. Also like Castillo over Joe Daddy at +200 or better...Stephenson usually comes out as a overvalued favourite. Also take Cantwell if he's a decent sized dog...IMO he has better striking defence and better ground game than Diabate...only concern is his ring rust and injuries.Comment -
Weidman looks like possibly the best bet on the card depending on the odds. Sakara aint nothing special, ive always thought of him as a gatekeeper at best. Do you know approximately when paddy usually releases the lines for the other fights? I´m gonna try not to miss any good opportunities this time like I usually do
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Btw,
on UFC 127 
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Cheers bro, 127 was a good night thanks 2 the Count, could of been a whole lot better if Fitch had gotten the decision tho! Paddy are a bit sporadic with when they release their lines. On the basis that Bookmaker and 5 dimes release the lines tonight, it's likely tht paddy will release theirs tomorrow evening, possibly tomorrow morning. You basicly just have to get in to the habit of checking the site every hour or so I am afraid!Weidman looks like possibly the best bet on the card depending on the odds. Sakara aint nothing special, ive always thought of him as a gatekeeper at best. Do you know approximately when paddy usually releases the lines for the other fights? I´m gonna try not to miss any good opportunities this time like I usually do.
Btw, on UFC 127 Comment -
UFC on Versus 3 Plays:
6.75 units on Weidman at -135 to win 5 units;
2 units on Palhares at -180 to win 1.11 units.Comment -
Got a tip for you my friend... Sanchez vs. Kampmann GO the distance 1.60@Sportingbet. Prolly just released as I've checked guite regularly. I played 8/10u on that one. CHEERS!
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Adding:
10 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision at -167 to win 6 units;
13.529 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision at -167 to win 8.117 units;
6.15 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to not go to decision at +220 to win 13.53 units;
2.795 units on Bowles/Page to go to decision at +325 to win 9.084 units (Looking to arb this one).Comment -
I'm also leaning towards a play on Roller vs. Tavares to GO the distance 2.10 (+110)@paddy. I'm thinking this one goes the distance more than 50% of the times but i find it hard to cap more accurately. Maybe I'll wait for some other books to drop odds so I have a reference. Any thoughts, anyone?Comment -
Yeah I've already put my pitiful max-bet on it going the distance at +125! I'm waiting to see if sportbet release fight to go distance prop tomorrow if the fight is chosen to be one of the two shown on facebook.
PP also got Munoz/Dolloway to go distance at -150 which I like. Tis -230 on Sportbet.
I see that Sweden is likely to host a UFC event on 5th November
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What do you think about Yang. I know -240 is a bit steep, but this looks like Zhang's fight at 127. Asian fighter that the UFC wants to get a win. I think it's worth a unit or two.Comment -
weidman -240 at 5 dimes?....so much for that....wish i thought that sakara was as good as his winning streak(but i don`t)....Comment -
Yeah I expected him to get a lot of action, managed to get him earlyish at -135 so satisfied. Sakara has never really impressed me. Undoubtedly he has a big stand-up advantage, but even then he has a questionable chin and not great head movement. Against Thales Leites he was taken down two or 3 times even with Thales' average set-ups, and since then it's become even more apparent that Thales' grappling credentials havn't translated in to MMA that well (gettin cut from UFC and choked out beat by Horwich). Weidman will set a much greater pace than Thales (who was pretty much gased out late in Rnd 2) and of course has much better wrestling. Sakara had tht horrible cut before the Germany event (granted he was ill, but perhaps it was a bad weight cut tht contributed to the illness rather than the opposite?), anyhow...be interesting to see how he looks at the weigh-ins this time. I'll probly take Sakara KO of the Night as a slight hedge if +600 or better. Dont see there being any other KO's on the main card so if he does finish Weidman with strikes then he is likely to get the bonus. Guess Munoz also has a chance of landing on Dolloway and his brutal GNP but I expect tht to go to decision. Page could catch Bowels but more likely tht Bowels chokes out Page. And Sanchez/Kampmann to decision of course.Comment -
Bodog props for Vs 3
Joe Stevenson vs Danny Castillo completes 2 full rounds
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-125
Joe Stevenson vs Danny Castillo won't complete 2 full rounds
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-125
Steve Cantwell vs. Cyrille Diabate completes 2 full rounds
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+150
Steve Cantwell vs. Cyrille Diabate won't complete 2 full rounds
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-200Comment -
Rousimar Palhares vs Dave Branch completes 1 full round
-220
Rousimar Palhares vs Dave Branch won't complete 1 full round
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+175
3014
Shane Roller vs. Thiago Tavares completes 2 full rounds
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-160
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3015
Shane Roller vs. Thiago Tavares won't complete 2 full rounds
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+110
All wagers have action.
2:45pShane Roller vs. Thiago Tavares
3014
Shane Roller vs. Thiago Tavares completes 1 full round
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-300
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3015
Shane Roller vs. Thiago Tavares won't complete 1 full round
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+220Comment -
4
Shane Roller wins inside distance
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+280
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3015
Shane Roller wins by 3 round decision
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+150
3016
Thiago Tavares wins inside distance
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+170
3017
Thiago Tavares wins by 3 round decision
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+260
3018
Draw
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+2200Comment
