i like Thiago's chances in this fight. He is just tough and I don't see Swick going for takedowns and GNPing like Fitch as much.
My MMA and boxing PLAYS
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RobbReportSBR MVP
- 09-22-09
- 2042
#36Comment -
RobbReportSBR MVP
- 09-22-09
- 2042
#37Also with Swick, if he gets hurt with a few good shots he will not be as explosive.Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#38Loss on Marquardt , was 1 fight close to hedge the last 2 .
- 1 unit LOSS
Nate Marquardt - 2.62 units LOSS
Insurance really helped here . More bookies getting involded in prop bets on MMA , will have a closer look on those in the future .
Sonnen surprised me here , didn't see him keeping Nate down like that all the way to the finish line .
Mike Swick - 3.81u LOSS
I've thought Swick edged the first round with the takedown , 2nd round was fairly even as well before Swick rocked Thiago a little bit and went in Manhoef vs Lawler style to get clocked on the button .
I think if Swick loses there is a good chance he got caught in a submission or rocked and finished with RNC on the ground .
That should be enough for today , decided to try this small 2nd chance thing for 3 fights today , hopefully it wont be needed .
Demian Maia + 2u WIN
Weak fight , I have a feeling Maia will struggle to submit people who have decent ground game in the future . Like I've posted when betting on Nate against Maia , around 75 % of Maia's UFC opponents losses have been by submission .Turned out to be a mostly stand up fight so I am happy with my small Miller by TKO or KO insurance , Maia could get rocked at any time .
Tomasz Adamek + 4.53u WIN
Poor quality fight , Adamek has won fair but he better not fight any legit HW .
+ 5u WIN
Edwin Valero + 5u WIN
Valero is a beast , brutal elbow caused a cut on his head in the 2nd round but he fought well , DeMarco quit on his stool after the 9th tho he could have done this a round or 2 earlier .
Weekend : 4-3 + 9.1u
Boxing YTD : 8-1 + 24.05 units
MMA YTD : 11-6 - 2.26 units
K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units
Parlays YTD : 8-2 + 40.51 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 28-9 + 63.25 unitsComment -
RobbReportSBR MVP
- 09-22-09
- 2042
#39keep it up Iceman... love your posts, thanks for sharing.Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#40Thanks , good call on Thiago . I am still not sold on his striking but Swick has absolutely no power at this weight which doesn't make it hard to stand with him and wait for an opportunity when he opens up . I would like to see him rematch Saunders .Comment -
terpkegSBR MVP
- 10-26-09
- 2364
#41Nice work. I tailed your boxing this weekend.Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#42Fri 2/12 10:00PM EST
Light Welterweight 10 rounds - Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, California - ESPN2
Javier Jauregui vs Ruslan Provodnikov
My pick is Ruslan Provodnikov to win
Odds : - 275
Where : sportsbook
$500 to win $182Comment -
36mafiaRestricted User
- 11-08-09
- 2389
#43might actually have something to watch instead that nba all star garbageComment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#445dimes has opened decent looking prop on this one , R.Provodnikov points handicap -12½ at - 115 ( any KO is a winner, ) . Lets assume he will win the fight , he always fights aggressively and judges should like this style giving him a lot of rounds . If he stops his opponent wager is won , its a 10 round bout so he needs to win around 7 rounds to 3 . I think he can do it , he might get a 10-8 round , I could see him make the old man take a knee from a bodyshot at some point . Russian will be the home fighter in this one and I could see one judge have a wide score for him in case it goes to a decision and he looked like controlling most rounds .
Fri 2/12 10:00PM EST
Light Welterweight 10 rounds - Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, California - ESPN2
Javier Jauregui vs Ruslan Provodnikov
My pick is Ruslan Provodnikov points handicap - 12 ½
Odds : - 115
Where : 5dimes
$287 to win $250Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#45TKO in the 8th round , had it 7 to 0 for the russian .
Sat 2/13 3:00PM EST
Lightweight 12 rounds - Wembley Arena, Wembley, London, United Kingdom - SKY-UK
Ignacio Mendoza vs Kevin Mitchell
My pick is Kevin Mitchell by KO TKO or DQ
Odds : - 175
Where : williamhill & paddypower
$1500 to win $855
Love this one , perfect opponent to look impressive against . Mendoza has been stopped twice , just 20 monthes ago got knocked out in the 3rd round by a fighter with 13-9-2 record ( 6 KO losses ) .
Before going to decision with a dangerous B.Prescott Mitchell TKO'ed seven opponents in a row since the march of 2007 . I see him getting back on track here with the stoppage wins , maybe around 6th or 7th round .Comment -
squallsquallSBR Sharp
- 05-24-09
- 273
#46Nice bets!Comment -
Superman_PunchSBR Wise Guy
- 11-07-09
- 583
#47Leaning on Mario Santiago @ +140Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#48Sat 2/13 11:30PM EST
Super Flyweight 12 rounds - Las Vegas Hilton, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Gerry Penalosa vs Eric Morel
My pick is Not Penalosa inside distance
Odds : - 396
Where : 5dimes
$396 to win $100
Should have parlayed it with something earlier , don't feel like watching the card without a bet .Comment -
Superman_PunchSBR Wise Guy
- 11-07-09
- 583
#49I like that play. Morel should win this fight. Penalosa needs to retire.Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#50Agree , like Santiago if he doesn't get lit up .Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#51Mitchell won in the second round by KO , Morel won a ''questionable'' decision .
Weekend : 4-0 + 13.87 units
Boxing YTD : 12-1 + 37.92 units
MMA YTD : 11-6 - 2.26 units
K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units
Parlays YTD : 8-2 + 40.51 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 32-9 + 77.12 unitsComment -
JuicedUpSBR MVP
- 01-20-10
- 3396
#52Mitchell won in the second round by KO , Morel won a ''questionable'' decision . Weekend : 4-0 + 13.87 units Boxing YTD : 12-1 + 37.92 units MMA YTD : 11-6 - 2.26 units K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units Parlays YTD : 8-2 + 40.51 units -------------------------------------------- Total YTD : 32-9 + 77.12 unitsComment -
jin2dajSBR Wise Guy
- 11-01-09
- 816
#53great job this weekedn!Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#5402/19/10 22:00 ET
Light Middleweight Fight - Cleveland OH
Russell Jordan vs Shawn Porter ( Round Prop )
My pick is UNDER 5.5
Odds : - 135
Where : sportsbook
$500 to win $370Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#55....Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#56Sat 2/20 10:05PM EST
UFC 110 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Acer Arena - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia - PPV
Anthony Perosh vs Mirko Filipovic
My pick is Mirko Filipovic to win
Odds : - 300
Where : 5dimes
$300 to win $100
Mirko wins this more than just 75 % of the timeComment -
cky312SBR High Roller
- 12-22-09
- 197
#57Wow I need to open a 5dimes account asap
edit: missed it already, up to -495Comment -
Rod_MSBR MVP
- 10-31-09
- 1282
#58Sat 2/20 10:05PM EST
UFC 110 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Acer Arena - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia - PPV
Anthony Perosh vs Mirko Filipovic
My pick is Mirko Filipovic to win
Odds : - 300
Where : 5dimes
$300 to win $100
Mirko wins this more than just 75 % of the timeComment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#59I have a weird feeling about this one tho , rumors Mirko suffered a cut above his eye in training and had to get stiches .Comment -
EccocideSBR MVP
- 01-12-09
- 2126
#60Not a rumour, it is true. Crocop said he won't let all the training go to waste over a cut. Wont affect the fight though. Perosh is a ground fighter, not likely he will be able to open up the cut with strikes to a point where it will be stopped.Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#61Sat 2/20 10:05PM
UFC 110 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Acer Arena - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia - PPV
Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
My pick is Ryan Bader to win
Odds : - 145
Where : 5dimes
$1450 to win $1000
Largest bet of the event for me , saw some love for Jardine early and didn't jump on - 130 line thinking they would back the talk up with some money , didn't happen .
Jardine still fights the same way he used to do at the time . He can land some punches and surprise you but not with big power , more of a surprise factor because of the angles . Solid armbar attempts from the bottom but I don't see Bader playing that game with him in the guard if he takes it down .
Going with the safer pick and taking Bader to win , probably going to be a decision but I wouldn't be super surprised if Jardine got knocked out in the clinch pressed against the cage or from a punch on the ground .
Bader unlike some other wrestlers hasn't been shy going with his strength instead of staying upright . Jardine was able to escape when people took him down in several fights , basically by just standing up . I am not sold on him getting up if he gets taken down by Bader who will be happy just holding him there and throwing a punch or two here and there .
In stand up I see Bader pressing Jardine against the cage to avoid getting his face peppered by rangy Jardine and working some dirty boxing while looking for a takedown .
Final result :
Ryan Bader wins + 8 units
Jardine wins by 3 round decision - 6.1 units
Jardine wins inside distance - 16.5 units
Draw - 2 units
Sat 2/20 7:45PM EST
UFC 110 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Acer Arena - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia - PPV
CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
My pick is Goran Reljic to win
Odds : - 199
Where : pinnaclesports
$995 to win $500
Was waiting for the line to get under 200 . Only thing that worries me a little bit is ring rust but after watching this video I've decided to pull the trigger . Dollaway has to win this by decision , Reljic can win this by submission , by KO or by decision as well if he cant avoid getting stuck on his back . Rewatched Dollaway's fight with Jay Silva and he was bad : gassed after the first round , was getting beat up on the feet , rocked several times . If Jay Silva had any ground game whatsoever he would have finished him . Only submission CB knows is peruvian necktie it seems and I wish him luck pulling it off tonight . His takedowns are seen from a mile most of the time and he is just begging to get guillotined like Lawlor did to him putting Dollaway to sleep few events ago . When he is on top he is far from dominant , you can go for a kimura on him and get a reverse . I highly doubt Dollaway has anything to offer if he ends up on the bottom , either he gets pounded out or submitted while trying to get up . Reljic has shown a good chin in his only UFC fight , didn't panic when he got rocked and pulled flying guard on a much experienced fighter than Dollaway . Only opponent of Dollaway who had submission skills has tapped him out twice .
Sat 2/20 10:05PM
UFC 110 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Acer Arena - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia - PPV
Michael Bisping vs Wanderlei Silva
My pick is Wanderlei Silva to win
Odds : - 143
Where : 5dimes
$715 to win $500
Final result :
Wanderlei Silva wins + 4 units
Bisping wins by 3 round decision - 3.62 units
Bisping wins inside distance - 8.15 units
Draw - 1 unitComment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#62Adding Joe Stevenson just for the sake of it - 207 , 10.35 units to win 5 units . Need a sweep on the main card , now I am pretty sure there is such a thing as KARMA ... Didn't lose the parlay yesterday with the play being void , now a close fight goes the other way ...Comment -
NOLA42SBR High Roller
- 01-27-10
- 243
#63gl iceman...i'll be watching these fightsComment -
RobbReportSBR MVP
- 09-22-09
- 2042
#64Sat 2/20 10:05PM
UFC 110 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Acer Arena - Sydney, New South Wales, Australia - PPV
Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
My pick is Ryan Bader to win
Odds : - 145
Where : 5dimes
$1450 to win $1000
Largest bet of the event for me , saw some love for Jardine early and didn't jump on - 130 line thinking they would back the talk up with some money , didn't happen .
In the last 10 UFC fights Jardine finished 1 opponent , Forrest Griffin who likes to play Rock 'Em Sock 'Em game in the octagon . Fact is Jardine hasn't faced a fighter who wanted to take him to the ground probably since Rashad Evans in TUF . Both were gassed midway into the fight and Rashad ran wrestling session on Jardine in the 3rd round pounding his face . Here is another fight where he faced a fighter who wanted to take it to the ground , tho a while ago
Jardine still fights the same way he used to do at the time . He can land some punches and surprise you but not with big power , more of a surprise factor because of the angles . Solid armbar attempts from the bottom but I don't see Bader playing that game with him in the guard if he takes it down .
Going with the safer pick and taking Bader to win , probably going to be a decision but I wouldn't be super surprised if Jardine got knocked out in the clinch pressed against the cage or from a punch on the ground .
Bader unlike some other wrestlers hasn't been shy going with his strength instead of staying upright . Jardine was able to escape when people took him down in several fights , basically by just standing up . I am not sold on him getting up if he gets taken down by Bader who will be happy just holding him there and throwing a punch or two here and there .
In stand up I see Bader pressing Jardine against the cage to avoid getting his face peppered by rangy Jardine and working some dirty boxing while looking for a takedown .
Final result :
Ryan Bader wins + 8 units
booyakasha!Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#655.5 units to win 5 units on Nog , I see this going like Joe Daddy fight , BJJ will beat pure wrestling with some ground game , if Nog reverses Cain at some point its going to be over but he can also work some magic from the bottom .Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#66Weekend : 3-4 -17.8 units
-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 12-2 + 32.92 units
MMA YTD : 14-9 - 15.06 units
K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units
Parlays YTD : 8-2 + 40.51 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 35-13 + 59.32 units
Before going to bed
Fri 2/26 10:05PM EST
Strikeforce - Challengers 6 - Light heavyweight - San Jose Civic Auditorium, San Jose, California - Showtime
Yancy Medeiros vs Raul Castillo
My pick is Raul Castillo to win
Odds : + 100
Where : 5dimes and pinnaclesports
$500 to win $500
Maybe a short write up tomorrow , I've watched like every fight of Medeiros in the last few days on youtube against local hawaiian ''amateurs'' and wasn't impressed with him . He seems overweight and could drop to a lower weight class , doesn't look like he is good at any aspect of fighting .
Castillo is a legit BJJ black belt , US Open winner last year , has wins over both Diaz brothers in grappling .Comment -
squallsquallSBR Sharp
- 05-24-09
- 273
#67Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#68I was shocked how slow and robotic Nog has looked like . He isn't going to fight for the belt anymore in his career it seems like .Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#69
Fri 2/26 10:05PM EST
Strikeforce - Challengers 6 - Light heavyweight - San Jose Civic Auditorium, San Jose, California - Showtime
Yancy Medeiros vs Raul Castillo
My pick is Raul Castillo to win
Odds : + 100
Where : 5dimes and pinnaclesports
$500 to win $500
Maybe a short write up tomorrow , I've watched like every fight of Medeiros in the last few days on youtube against local hawaiian ''amateurs'' and wasn't impressed with him . He seems overweight and could drop to a lower weight class , doesn't look like he is good at any aspect of fighting .
Castillo is a legit BJJ black belt , US Open winner last year , has wins over both Diaz brothers in grappling .
Yancy Medeiros didn't disappoint at the weigh-in , just like I've thought he clearly carries a lot of extra weight for this division and most likely had trouble making the weight limit .
I hear Medeiros has wrestling background but I have seen nothing of it , he might have wrestled in Hawaii but I don't think he will be trying to take down a BJJ black belt . On the other hand Castillo has shown solid takedowns , he will be looking to clinch with Medeiros as soon as possible and press him against the cage looking for double leg takedown . Medeiros's takedown defense is also a question to me , as far as I know all of his fights have been in the ring . Most of his opponents clinched with him from the opening bell and had no trouble pressing him against the ropes but couldn't take him down and he ended up falling on them bouncing off the ropes . In a cage he would have far more trouble staying on his feet if he got pressed against the cage and they've tried to take him down . Wrestling edge goes to Castillo from the footage I have seen .
No info on Medeiros's BJJ skill level , my guess is he has very limited experience with submission fighting . Very big edge to Raul Castillo in both offense and defense because he will have nothing to worry about if he is on the ground with Medeiros as far as submissions go .
Stand up edge goes to Medeiros , he seems like a brawler and will be looking to throw power punches which is predictable and Castillo atleast on paper should be prepared for that type of fight . Castillo himself hasn't shown a lot of striking in his fights but as long as he is able to clinch with Medeiros and take the fight to the ground he should be in the fight . In this highlight video he is working on his boxing so I assume it's atleast on useful level to the point where he shouldn't get knocked out like Maia vs Marquardt .
Striking edge to Medeiros but tough to judge how big of an edge he has on Castillo , Raul hasn't shown any interest getting into brawls and I don't see him getting into a slugfest with the hawaiian .
Castillo got caught by Eric Lawson very early but he recovered grabbing Lawson's leg going for a takedown . Also he took some clean shots while in bottom position on the ground and didn't stop for a second going for submissions . He is pretty relentless as far as submissions go both from the top and bottom . When on top he has shown solid ground and pound in this fight .
Also the soft way Medeiros looked like at the weigh-in I would have to question his cardio if the fight goes over the first 5 minutes . If he tires out Castillo will still be looking to take him down and it's going to be tough to stop relentless guy trying to get you to the ground .
If both are the fighters I think they are from the limited footage Castillo should get ahold of Medeiros early and be relentless looking to get the fight to the ground . I think Castillo would win this match-up atleast 60 % of the time and the odds suggest he would need to win 1 % over 50 to make it a profitable play .Comment -
TheIcemanSBR High Roller
- 01-22-07
- 179
#703 hours of research just to watch 15 minutes of the worst performance in MMA of all time , this was on the same level with Kalib Starnes vs Nate Quarry .
Didn't think he would go over + 185 . Again , it's another one dimensional guy but here it's a wrestler who should lay and pray Rockhold to death , not sure if it happens tho .
That's it for the night , lets see if the lay and pray assassin can get me the lost money back .Comment
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