Jibs why not take Colby UD (+185) instead? Feel like he wins a clear decision if he survives and that almost doubles your potential return.
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I bet the Over 2.5 Clay Guida vs Jim Miller fight. I find there is some value, maybe close to a 70% chance of it happening.Comment -
Where you at Turbo u have a fight to break down Lucie Pudilova vs Antonina Shevchenko. All i know is one has a sister that is a hell of a fighter and i can't see the UFC wanting her to lose but i know nothing about the other girl. If you have time that is. Any of you other guys feel free to give your thoughts. Not sure i have seen anything about this fight.Comment -
Can't fight with badly bruised, cracked or broken ribs going in cold.. Be nuts to try it.. One shot to that area and you are in massive pain, backing up, covering up or curling up..
Rib injuries suck.. Hard to breath also.. Been there done that not fun
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"Broken ribs got nothing on a stubbed toe"
-JibbbyComment -
Colby said he and Jorge Masvidal would get the better of Tyron Woodley and Robbie Lawler in training/sparring.
Today we may find out whether that is true.Comment -
Jibbby are you gonna post your picks?Comment -
Rounding off the main card.. Last minute write ups...MMA MANIA Prelims -
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125 lbs.: Lauren Murphy vs. Mara Romero Borella
Lauren Murphy — the former Invicta FC Bantamweight champion — went 1-3 in the Octagon before joining The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 as the No. 3-ranked seed. She fell to eventual tournament winner Nicco Montano in the opening round and has gone 1-1 since, most recently dropping a decision to cast mate Sijara Eubanks.
This will be her first bout in 14 months because of injury.
Italy’s Mara Romero Borella (12-5) extended her unbeaten streak to seven with an upset submission of Kalindra Faria in her UFC debut. She dropped a decision her next time out, but bounced back to hand Taila Santos her first professional loss in 16 fights.
“Kunoichici” will have a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
Murphy’s key issue is that her wrestling isn’t good enough for her to consistently implement her strong top control. I thought that the drop to Flyweight would make her more able to overpower her opponents, but that hasn’t proven the case. Against Borella, a capable grappler in her own right, I expect a lot of fruitless grinding against the fence.
Yay.
Whoever wins this, it’s going to be ugly and fan-unfriendly. Expect a slow-paced clinch battle where both have an argument for deserving the decision; Borella’s been more impressive in the Octagon, so I say she ekes it out.
Prediction: Borella via split decision
Related
Covington Next For Welterweight Title Shot ... If He Beats Lawler
170 lbs.: Cole Williams vs. Claudio Silva
Cole Williams (11-1) enters UFC on a nine-fight win streak that dates back to 2009. Back in 2013, he competed on Bellator’s Fight Master series, racking up three victories before falling to Joe Riggs in the semifinals.
He replaces Ramazan Emeev, who ran into **** issues, on just over a week’s notice.
Claudio Silva (13-1) began his Octagon run with decisions over Brad Scott and Leon Edwards, only to miss the next 2.5 years with various injuries. He returned in May 2018 with a bonus-winning upset submission of Nordine Taleb, then scored a controversial armbar finish of Danny Roberts last March.
“Hannibal” has submitted eight professional opponents, four each by armbar and rear-naked choke.
Emeev would have been Silva’s first opponent to badly out-class him in the wrestling, which for my money would have gotten “Gorets” a comfortable victory. Williams, a decent all-arounder with no standout skills, will be a far easier assignment. The 35-year-old is a better striker than “Hannibal,” but so is everyone the Brazilian fights. Silva’s win condition is getting a takedown and I haven’t seen enough top-notch grappling from Williams to suggest that he can deny it.
Silva’s general ineptitude at everything but Brazilian jiu-jitsu will make it interesting while it lasts, and Williams does sit down enough on his shots to maybe ring Silva’s bell once or twice. That said, it’s essentially over as soon as it hits the mat.
Prediction: Silva via first-round submission
Related
Super Potion! Covington Suspicious Of Lawler’s Physique
125 lbs.: Hannah Goldy vs. Miranda Granger
Hannah Goldy (5-0) went 3-1 as an amateur before debuting in 2016 with a decision over current Flyweight standout Gillian Robertson. Three more wins brought her to the Contender Series, where she outclassed Kali Robbins but did not earn an immediate contract.
She stands three inches shorter than Miranda Granger (6-0) at 5’4.”
“Danger” Granger won all five of her amateur bouts and quickly beat some notable names in the pros, including Invicta veteran Amy Montenegro and two-time Contender Series competitor Jamie Colleen. This set up a short at the vacant CFFC Strawweight title, which she won with a 41-second guillotine of Heloina Azevedo in May.
All but one of her six finishes have come in the first round.
This looks to be a fairly prototypical striker vs. grappler match up — Goldy has good takedown defense and Granger isn’t helpless on the feet, but each has a considerable edge in her area of expertise.
Unfortunately for Granger, Goldy’s better at getting and keeping it in her comfort zone.
Granger hasn’t proven herself to be an overpowering wrestler, generally doing her best work reactively, and is extremely straightforward on the feet. Like Robbins, this leaves her open to Goldy’s kicks and check hook. Unless Granger shows some dramatically improved takedown entries and cage cutting, Goldy spends 15 minutes pot-shotting off the back foot for a dominant victory.
Prediction: Goldy via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Mickey Gall vs. Salim Touahri
Mickey Gall (5-2) dispatched Mike Jackson in 45 seconds to win the C.M. Punk Sweepstakes, then defeated the former WWE star with similar ease seven months later. He has since alternated victories and defeats, submissions of Sage Northcutt and George Sullivan offset by losses to Randy Brown and, most recently, Diego Sanchez.
He steps in for the injured Zelim Imadaev on less than one month’s notice.
Salim Touahri (10-3) brought a five-fight win streak into his short-notice UFC debut against Warlley Alves, who overpowered the Pole over 15 minutes to take a unanimous decision. Injury kept “Grizzly” out of action for the next 14 months, after which he fell to Keita Nakamura by narrow split decision.
He stands four inches shorter than Gall at 5’10” and will give up two inches of reach.
This looks to be a make-or-break fight for Gall — Touahri’s basic, but he hits hard and he’s a pain to take down. Neither Alves, a physical beast, nor Nakamura, a highly adept grappler, were able to consistently bring down or control “Grizzly.”
Basically, Gall needs to prove that he has more than just decent wrestling and a sick rear-naked choke to win this. After six UFC fights and a loss to what’s left of Diego Sanchez, I’m not sure he does. Though he could very well have improved since that “Nightmare” defeat, his consistently-limited arsenal makes it hard to have faith in him. Touahri sprawls-and-brawls to an increasingly one-sided victory.
Prediction: Touahri via unanimous decision
Related
Covington Next For Welterweight Title Shot ... If He Beats Lawler
125 lbs.: Antonina Shevchenko vs. Lucie Pudilova
Antonina Shevchenko (7-1) — sister of champion Valentina Shevchenko — followed up her dominant “Contender Series” victory with a decision over Korean bruiser Ji Yeon Kim in her Octagon debut. Five months later, she returned to action against Roxanne Modafferi, who defied lopsided odds to grind out a split decision in St. Petersburg. The 34-year-old
“Panther” is nine years older than Pudilova.
Lucia Pudilova (8-4) got a shot at revenge against Lina Lansberg in her first UFC appearance, but wound up on the wrong side of a decision despite inflicting some serious damage to “The Elbow Queen’s” eye. She got back on track with decisions over Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras, though she subsequently came up short against Irene Aldana and Liz Carmouche.
She has knocked out and submitted two foes apiece.
Pudilova — though better than her 2-3 Octagon record would suggest — looks to be a safe bounce-back opponent for Shevchenko. The Czech veteran has shown neither the inclination nor ability to consistently hunt for takedowns, and for all of Shevchenko’s struggles on the mat, she outclasses most of the division on the feet.
At 34 years old, it’s highly unlikely that Shevchenko can develop the underrated wrestling that’s the key to her sister’s success. Against a willing striker, though, she can still shine. Powerful clinch work carries her to victory.
Prediction: Shevchenko via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! High Noon In Newark!
125 lbs.: Jordan Espinosa vs. Matt Schnell
An 83-second submission of Nick Urso wasn’t enough to earn Jordan Espinosa (14-5) a contract in his first “Contender Series” bid, but he returned to the show a year later to knockout Rilley Dutro and secure a place in the Octagon. He successfully debuted this past March with a decision over TUF veteran Eric Shelton for his fifth consecutive victory.
Four of his seven professional stoppages have come by d’arce choke.
Matt Schnell (13-4) brought a seven-fight win streak into TUF 24, where he submitted Matthew Rizzo before falling to Tim Elliott in the quarterfinals. Though he started his UFC career winless (0-2), he has since won three straight, including a triangle finish of Louis Smolka in March.
He stands two inches taller than Espinosa, but will give up one inch of reach.
Espinosa’s greatest weakness has historically been his cardio, which led me to pick against him in his UFC debut. Instead, he held his own for all 15 minutes against a real scrapper in Shelton. Without that handicap, he’s a handful for most of the division, Schnell included.
Schnell is the lesser wrestler of the two and his historical issues with punch resistance suggest that he’s in danger so long as it stays on the feet. Espinosa clips him with a counter, then clamps down on his favorite d’arce choke when Schnell tries to shoot.
Prediction: Espinosa via first round submission
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 103-57
170 lbs.: Colby “Chaos” Covington (14-1) vs. Robbie Lawler (28-13)
Being a lovable asshole is a lot harder than movies make it out to be. There’s a craft to it, a certain roguish charm required to come off as a puckish rapscallion instead of just, you know, a prick. Hell, just look at Chael Sonnen; objectively, he’s a drug cheat with a criminal record and a long history of objectionable statements, yet he’s also a beloved figure in this sport.
Regardless of whether you agree with Covington’s political views, I think it’s safe to say that he doesn’t quite measure up on the heel front. Dude can definitely fight, though.
A bottomless gas tank and a willingness to make a fight completely unwatchable in pursuit of victory are skills that Lawler looks to struggle with. It’s easy to forget that the “Ruthless” one barely squeaked by Johny Hendricks in their rematch and, despite their nuclear barnburner of a finale, gave away rounds to Carlos Condit through sheer lack of activity. I can easily see Covington racking up an insurmountable point lead through constant pressure and fence grinding even if consistently establishing top control proves too much for him.
I’ve seen a preview suggesting that Covington’s greatest challenge will come in the early going, but I see the difficulty coming when Lawler says “f*** it” and starts throwing heat in the final round, as he is wont to do. That just opens him up to more double-legs, unfortunately; Covington won’t stick his neck out any further than he needs to.
Lawler always has a puncher’s chance and Rafael Dos Anjos’ striking success against Covington gives me a bit of hope, but inconsistent punch output seems like a riskier investment than constant, unrelenting grind. Covington wins a snoozer.
Prediction: Covington by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Jim Miller (30-13) vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (35-18)
Predicting modern Jim Miller fights is tricky, because it’s hard to figure out which of his issues are from general decline and which of them were caused by the Lyme disease he didn’t know about until recently. Despite my best efforts, I’ve yet to secure a clarifying interview with the tick that bit him.
Whatever the case, his recent successes came from hurting and outwrestling his opponents, neither of which seems terribly feasible against Guida. Guida can still spoil with the best of them and still has the gas tank to be a pest for 15 minutes or more. Though the lesser striker of the two, his furious pace and ostensible takedown edge make this a very doable assignment.
Guida’s submission defense has historically failed him, so Miller could certainly end this if he gets on top even once. I just don’t see that happening. Guida out-grinds and out-hustles him en route to a decision.
Prediction: Guida by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva (11-1) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (10-2)
“Netto BJJ” has got to be up there among the most misleading nicknames in the sport. Silva’s definitely skilled on the mat, but he’s spent his Octagon time marching forward and looking to break faces. He’s a gritty, powerful slugger who makes up for his technical striking deficiencies with sheer bloody-mindedness.
Unfortunately, sheer bloody-mindedness isn’t quite enough against a faster, crisper, and more accurate striker.
Haqparast looks like both Kelvin Gastelum and a blue-chip prospect, a punishing southpaw boxer with lethal hands. I don’t see any prolonged striking engagements going Silva’s way, and his general reluctance/inability to actually use his titular submission skills precludes a repeat of Haqparast’s loss to the grind-happy Marcin Held. So long as the German paces himself and doesn’t lose confidence after his first few broadsides fail to put a dent in the Brazilian’s chin, this seems to be a stylistic dream for him.
This is less a tactical chess match and more a battle of Silva’s durability against Haqparast’s stamina. After seeing Haqparast maintain his pace in high-volume battles with Marc Diakiese and Thibault Gouti, I have plenty of faith in the latter. Haqparast chews him up standing for a late finish.
Prediction: Haqparast by third-round TKO
185 lbs.: Trevin “The Problem” Giles (11-1) vs. Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (28-11)
There are UFC fighters whose abilities seem to fluctuate from fight to fight, but I’m hard-pressed to think of someone with a greater amplitude than Meerschaert. He spends all of his Octagon time looking either brilliant or terrible, with not a second spent in between. He started his UFC career 4-1, racking up two post-fight bonuses and dominating someone I was super high on in Oskar Piechota, then flat-out embarrassed himself against Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland.
Seriously, the Holland fight was bad. Holland fought the dumbest, most self-defeating fight imaginable and Meerschaert still couldn’t beat him.
Giles, meanwhile, is pretty dang consistent. Good power, solid wrestling, strong overall athleticism and technique. He did get clipped and stopped by Zak Cummings last time, but he hadn’t fought in a year and a half and was doing well against a dangerous opponent beforehand.
I’ll take the guy with the higher mean over the guy with the higher maximum.
Meerschaert’s horrible fight IQ and poor wrestling ostensibly make him easy pickings for “The Problem.” So long as Giles doesn’t burn himself out hunting an early finish like Eric Spicely and Piechota did, he should dominate everywhere. He pounds out a gassed Meerschaert late in the second or partway through the third.
Prediction: Giles by third-round TKO
155 lbs.: Scott “Hot Sauce” Holtzman (13-3) vs. Dong Hyun “Maestro” Ma (16-9)
This just seems like a really bad matchup for Ma; Holtzman is by far the physically stronger and harder-hitting of the two, making brawling a terrible idea, and doesn’t appear to be a sufficiently overpowering takedown artist to exploit Holtzman’s lingering wrestling issues. “Hot Sauce’s” huge athleticism edge just seems like more than Ma can deal with; gutsiness and mid-tier grappling aren’t enough against a physical disparity of this magnitude.
I’m trying to think of more to say to pad this out, but that really seems to be all of it. Ma will struggle to bring Holtzman to the mat and is hopelessly outgunned on the feet. Expect a customarily brave effort from the “Maestro” before Holtzman bludgeons him into submission.
Prediction: Holtzman by second-round TKO
205 lbs.: Darko Stosic (13-2) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (6-1)
Darko Stosic was on my list of the best UFC fighters to debut in 2018, so you can imagine my disappointment with his tepid performance against Devin Clark earlier this year. If he can’t beat the underachieving Nzechukwu, a move back to Heavyweight would be in order.
The “African Savage” boasts considerable edges in height and reach which, if used well, could completely defuse Stosic, who struggled to close the distance against Clark. Unfortunately, Nzechukwu tends to push his punches and doesn’t always have the best range management, leaving him open to Stosic’s heavy hands and crushing leg kicks. On the flip side, Nzechukwu’s takedown defense is generally stout, which takes away Stosic’s fearsome ground-and-pound.
Like the oddsmakers, I see this as a coin flip. Both have clear avenues of victory if they can make the necessary adjustments from their recent losses. In the final analysis, though, Nzechukwu just gets hit too much to survive a power slugger of this caliber. So long as Stosic is confident enough in his gas tank to maintain his advance, he should clip the taller man sometime in the first.
Prediction: Stosic by first-round TKOComment -
Early start time!!.. Can't get liquored up while watching this event first thing in the morning like I usually do with the nightly events, not happy about this!!...
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Hugo, you posting yours today or taking a pass? Thanks manComment -
Liking Antonina and the Stosic under today. BOL fuckersComment -
Not that I have seen sir, just checkingComment -
I'm actually pretty alert and do ok live betting with a good liquor buzz. My mind becomes more creative actually, I start playing parlay props for small and thinking about combinations more.
It's all good JC.. What ever.. I just enjoy watching the events more when liquored up is what I'm really trying to say..
..
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UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs. Lawler Picks:
Hannah Goldy Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Claudio Silva Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Mara Romero Borella Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Matt Schnell Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Antonina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Salim Touahri Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Kennedy Nzechukwu Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Scott Holtzman Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Gerald Meerschaert Round 2 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Nasrat Haqparast Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Jim Miller Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Colby Covington Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)Comment -
UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs. Lawler
ESPN Prelims:
Fight #1: Goldy (DEBUT) vs. Granger (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #2: C. Silva vs. C. Williams (DEBUT)
C. Silva ITD (-140) 1.4u to win 1u
Fight #3: Romero Borella vs. Murphy
Romero Borella ITD (+560) 0.25u
Fight #4: Espinosa vs. Schnell
No Bet
Fight #5: A. Shevchenko vs. Pudilova
No Bet
Fight #6: Touahri vs. Gall
No Bet
Main Card:
Fight #7: Nzechukwu vs. Stosic
No Bet
Fight #8: Holtzman vs. Ma
Holtzman Round 3 (+975) 0.25u
Fight #9: Meerschaert vs. Giles
Meerschaert+Giles Won’t Go Distance (-168) 3.35u to win 2u
Meerschaert Submission (+375) 0.75u
Fight #10: Haqparast vs. J. Silva
Haqparast KO/TKO (+250) 0.5u
Hedge:
J. Silva Round 1 (+1275) 0.25u
Fight #11: Guida vs. Miller
No Bet
Fight #12: Covington vs. Lawler
Covington -5.5 (+140) 2u
Covington Decision (+149) 1.01u
Covington Unanimous Decision (+185) 0.75u
Hedge(s):
Lawler ITD (+285) 1u
Lawler Round 1 (+775) 0.25u
Straight Parlays:
Holtzman/Haqparast (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
C. Silva/Romero Borella (+100) 1u
Prop Parlays:
None
Full Card Props:
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+775) 0.3u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2625) 0.1u
Multi-Event Parlays:
Cyborg -3.5/Covington (-117) 1.17u to win 1u
Holloway -5.5/Covington (-113) 1.13u to win 1u
Covington/Luque (+100) 2u
Haqparast/Luque (+103) 2.5uComment -
Got Miranda to kick off the card.Comment -
Why is this so early , it’s in-the US for Christ sake at noon, c’mon!
Seriously, why is this so early?Comment -
Covington sub has some value at +550.. Robbie has been choked out before and if this fight stays on the ground maybe Coby can sink a choke in over 5 rounds..
Thoughts anyone with that?
1039 Covington wins by submission +556
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-03-19, 11:02 AM.Comment -
Best of luck gentsComment
