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You should really look into the points handicap on 5d. I have done really well utilizing it for favorites.
For example, Fighter A can have a -3.5 against fighter B, who would be +3.5
Fighter A wins by, either winning the fight outright (lets say flying scissor hook or KO) or by winning a decision based on the -3.5. So if fighter A scores a unanimous 30-27(+3X3) across the board, they are technically +9 and would win the bet. Maybe the judges go 29-28, 29-28, and 29-28 for fighter A, fighter B would then cover because they had the +3. Hope this helps.
This event may not be the best for it, I argue its better for playing heavy favs (for example I won big money off Schev, Polyanna, and Patrick on the Machida card). It reduces the juice a little bit, the Schev fight I parlayed bc it was somewhere around -300 for the -3.5.Last edited by HurlSweatPants; 02-08-18, 05:49 PM.Comment -
Another thing to add about point handicaps and especially NO CARDS plays is they are GREAT for parlays.Comment -
Waiting for a Blaydes NO CARDS play. I'm buying his chin and I think he could finish him on the ground potentiallyComment -
Anzai outstruck Jumeau in that 1st round of their fight..... and this guy is supposed to be a striker? I get he's countering exclusively basically but Anzai is so terrible on the feetComment -
Competitive in the 2nd round before the Anzai takedown as well.. quite frankly I don't think this guy is UFC caliber so farComment -
Damn... watched Jumeau's last 3 fights and I just don't see it. Lost the first 2 rounds to Anzai even in the striking exchanges IMO and then lost R1 to Steele and didn't look that good in the striking until he stunned Steele in R2 (Steele has horrible cardio and defense) and did the same in R3 at times. He couldn't get a chinny Steele out of there though. The same guy that COURT MCGEE dropped in the 1st round when he was fresh. This guy beats the slow wrestlers with his cardio and then outstriking them which is a red flag to me for a guy that is supposed to be a striking specialist. In the fight against Vik (another grapple first fighter), he eats a head kick and gets rocked and taken down and gave the business giving up his back but survives until the 2nd round. Vik comes out gassed like crazy (came in 3 KG heavier than Luke) in R2 and does nothing. Gets hit with something extremely weak and dives on the mat and covers up and doesn't move and the fight is called.Comment -
The shot Jumeau hit Vik with landed to the back of the head, but it did have a lot behind it. That's the reason why Vik was upset at the end of the fight.
Really though that shot was unintended by Jumeau. He literally closes his eyes and looked to the side when throwing it, and intended to hit Vik's chin. Vik just happened to be coming in at the same time and it landed to the back of his head.Comment -
Hope Hiromitsu Miura is just a good striker because before Abe dropped him in R1, he was losing the striking exchanges slightly IMO. Of course he dropped him with a sharp uppercut and attacked like crazy on the ground. Proceeded to knock him down again and had him almost finished before the bell.Comment -
Holy shit he literally KO'd Miura with one punch like 20 seconds into that 2nd round....Comment -
Abe ML (-145) risking 1.5 units for me. Going to take an awful decision or Abe absolutely blowing his wad early for a stoppage for Jumeau to win this one. Abe has the better grappling background too even though he never uses it (high school judo champ in Japan). I think Jumeau is a lot like Damien Brown without Brown's decent offensive wrestling (when he decided to use it and not chase bonuses) due to the fact that they aren't necessarily UFC caliber but they win based off heart and cardio. That won't work here though. He's facing an actual striker who should be the quicker guy and is DEFINITELY the more powerful guy.Comment -
Thanks Hugo. Amazing what you find when you actually watch older tape. I generally devalue guys that have that Elkins fight style because it typically doesn't hold up. It says your skill level isn't up to par and you probably only won later on because the other guys cardio wasn't good.Comment -
No tape yet on this Brown/Kim fight but Damien Brown has to be the more likely guy to finish this fight. Brown is tough as nails but this is a semi short turnaround after that WAR with Camacho in November. Kim just doesn't seem very durable to me and the guys he has finished have been complete stiffs in Asia mostly. More than that, Steele dropped him and finished him with a slam in his UFC debut and Polo Reyes dropped him twice and finished him in the 3rd in his next fight. After such a great back and forth low level brawl, they gave him a bone against Brendan O'Reilly who is TERRIBLE. He laid on him for 3 rounds and took a decision there. They then give him Gomi who can't take ANY type of shot at all anymore and he KO's him quick. This guy is living off that war he got into against Reyes and parlayed it into a couple cakewalks. Brown has fought MUCH tougher competition and has only been finished by Pichel when he ran into something essentially. I may even play Brown NOT ITD at -280 on 5D.Comment -
Yeah sorry. NOT Kim ITD. Shit gets confusing quick lol. I think there IS value on Brown ITD at over +400. May wait and see if it gets closer to +500. Not sure how to play this but I think these lines should be reversed. I'll probably play one as well as Brown NO CARDS when that line comes outComment -
MMA mania -
UFC 221 predictions: ‘Rockhold vs Romero’ FOX Sports 1 ‘Prelims’ undercard preview
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155 lbs.: Ross Pearson vs. Mizuto Hirota
Once feared as among the division’s premier strikers, Ross Pearson (19-14) enters the cage this weekend having lost four in a row and five of his last six bouts. He last fought in New Zealand, where local favorite Dan Hooker timed a vicious knee to turn the lights out in the second round.
He stands one inch taller than Mizuto Hirota (18-8-2) at 5’8.”
Hirota — who won Lightweight titles in both Sengoku and DEEP — finally picked up his first UFC victory in Dec. 2016 with a decision over Cole Miller. Things have been a tad disastrous since, however, as he was battered by Alexander Volkanovski and pulled from a fight with Charles Rosa because of a failed weight cut.
“Pugnus” has stopped 10 opponents with strikes, including fellow Japanese standouts Satoru Kitaoka and Masakazu Imanari.
This is probably the Japanese mixed martial arts (MMA) fanboy instincts I’ve tried so hard to suppress talking, but I’ve got Hirota here. The book is out on Pearson, who is just 2-6 in his last eight bouts and had to settle for split decisions in those two victories. Hirota is as durable as they come, can handle himself on the inside, and has the takedown prowess to ruin Pearson’s day.
Pearson does have a habit of coming up big when he’s been counted out, of course, and is sharper than Hirota with his boxing. Still, I believe Hirota can weather his best shots and eke out a decision through effective grinding.
Prediction: Hirota by split decision
135 lbs.: Teruto Ishiharavs. Jose Alberto Quinonez
The ever-charismatic Teruto Ishihara (10-4-2) rattled off two brutal knockouts following his draw with Mizuto Hirota in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Japan” finals, only to suffer consecutive upset defeats to Artem Lobov and Gray Maynard. When UFC next returned to Japan, “Yashabo” took on Filipino striker Rolando Dy and survived a late surge to win a unanimous decision.
This will be his first Bantamweight appearance since 2014.
Jose Alberto Quinonez (6-2) defeated Bentley Syler and Marco Antonio Beltran on his way to TUF: “Latin America” finals, where he lost a decision to former victim Alejandro Perez. Though he has fought just three times since that Nov. 2014 defeat, “El Teco” has yet to taste further defeat in UFC, most recently defeating former castmate Diego Rivas in Mexico City.
He has knocked out two professional opponents and submitted another.
Ishihara’s power is catastrophic, but there just hasn’t been any development in his game since joining UFC. He’s still a one-handed slugger with cardio issues and iffy defensive wrestling. Despite training with Team Alpha Male, his takedowns aren’t much better — the ones he tried on Dy looked more like football tackles than polished double-legs. If he can’t get rid of his opponents early, he’s in trouble against someone with a solid sprawl.
Quinonez is more polished all around, can wrestle fairly well and proved that he can fight through heavy firepower against Joey Gomez. Clean boxing and resilience carry him through the early storm, after which he takes over with punches and takedowns.
Prediction: Quinonez by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Luke Jumeauvs. Daichi Abe
Luke Jumeau (12-4) put submission losses to future UFC competitors Li Jingliang and Jake Matthews behind him with six consecutive stoppage victories, including a technical knockout of TUF: “Nations” competitor Vik Grujic. “The Jedi” upset Dominique Steele in his Octagon debut, but couldn’t quite handle the relentless pressure and wrestling of Shinsho Anzai in “The Animal’s” native Japan.
All nine of his professional finishes have come inside of two rounds.
Daichia Abe (6-0) made his professional MMA debut in Pancrase in April 2016 and won its Welterweight title little more than one year later, felling former World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) standout and professional boxer Hiromitsu Miura with punches. He went on to face Korean bruiser Hyun Gyu Lim in his debut, fighting through an eye poke to drop “The Ace” late and secure a decision victory.
Four of his six wins have come by form of knockout, three in the first round.
The X-factor here is Abe’s judo. The two are well-matched on the feet, both packing plenty of skill and aggression, but Jumeau’s takedown defense and bottom game remain underdeveloped. Grujic and Anzai demonstrated that you don’t even need all that much craft to dominate him on the ground ... just gusto and determination.
It’s a toss-up so long as it stays on the feet, with Abe’s power giving him a slight edge. It’s a wash on the ground, though, and that decides it. Abe holds his own in the exchanges and mixes in enough throws and top control to take the decision.
Prediction: Abe via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Damien Brown vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Damien Brown (17-11) made his fellow Aussies proud at UFC Fight Night 101, surviving early adversity to edge Jon Tuck by split decision. “Beatdown” wasn’t quite as successful seven months later in Auckland, however, suffering a one-punch knockout loss to Vinc Pichel. The good news for his is that he rebounded well, taking Frank Camacho to a “Fight of the Night” split decision in Nov. 2017.
He’s stopped eight opponents via submission, six by form of choke.
Dong Hyun Kim (15-8-3) — best known for his insane war with Polo Reyes at UFC 199 — has dialed back his brawling a bit to secure two consecutive UFC victories. After a grappling-heavy victory over Brendan O’Reilly, he took on the smoldering husk of Takanori Gomi in Saitama and knocked him silly in just 90 seconds.
He will have an inch of height and two inches of reach on Brown.
Before anything else, please go to UFC.com and look at Kim’s haircut. Back? Alright, let’s get into it.
This just seems like a rough style match up for Brown. Kim looks to be the stronger grappler and showed that he knows how to scrap against Reyes, surviving the Mexican bruiser’s best shots for more than two rounds before finally succumbing. Brown is going to have to out-technique him, for which he doesn’t appear to have the toolbox.
If Kim does go full zombie again, it could come back to bite him, but he’s shown a willingness to actually fight smart recently. He mixes up straight punches and takedowns for a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Kim via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Rob Wilkinson vs. Israel Adesanya
Rob Wilkinson (11-1) earned (and defended) the Australian FC Middleweight title before answering UFC’s call in Nov. 2017. Stepping up on short notice for Abu Azaitar, Wilkinson took on the returning Siyar Bahadurzada and succumbed to the Afghan’s power partway through the second round.
He has submitted six professional opponents ... all in the first round.
Israel Adesanya (11-0) — currently ranked the No. 5 middleweight kickboxer on the planet by LiverKick.com — put together a 65-5-2 record in the discipline despite splitting his time with MMA since 2012. His time in our sport of choice has seen him stop all 11 of his opponents, including Kenan Song and Melvin Guillard, with strikes in less than two rounds apiece.
He stands one inch taller than Wilkinson at 6’4.”
Fans should be as excited about Adesanya’s debut as they were about Gokhan Saki’s. Adesanya may not have quite the list of accomplishments “The Rebel” does, but unlike the Turkish slugger, he’s in his athletic prime at 28. It also helps that he’s a joy to watch, packing the sort of fluid and destructive attack his nickname suggests.
Wilkinson is a fairly solid wrestler, which is worth keeping an eye on after another striking prodigy in Muslim Salikhov got wrecked on the mat, but Adesanya’s got good hips and a knack for throws in the clinch. After the way Wilkinson struggled to manhandle a blown-up Welterweight in Bahadurzada, I don’t see him shutting down Izzy. Adesanya wears him down at range before polishing him off once he’s good and tired.
Prediction: Adesanya via second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Despite standing a mere 5’6,” Alexander Volkanovski (16-1) has emerged as a Featherweight prospect worth watching during his three-fight Octagon tenure. The former Australian FC champ brutalized both Yusuke Kasuya and Mizuto Hirota before outclassing New Zealand’s Shane Young on UFC’s last venture to “The Land Down Under.”
Nine of his 12 professional finishes have come by form of knockout.
Jeremy Kennedy (11-0) — who has had fights with the likes of Josh Emmett and Mirsad Bektic fall through — has used dominant wrestling to put together a three-fight win streak in the competitive Featherweight division. His victims include inaugural The Ultimate Fighter: “Brazil” winner Rony “Jason” and Kyle Bochniak, who was last seen beating prospect Brandon Davis.
“JBC” stands five inches taller than Volkanovski, though their respected reaches are identical.
Though Volkanovski is still a little too over-reliant on the overhand right, his wrestling technique, bottomless gas tank, and sheer power are enough to make him a massive handful. Even better, Kennedy doesn’t have the style to exploit Volkanovski’s lingering issues. He’s at home in the clinch and relentlessly pursuing takedowns, which plays right into Volkanovski’s sledgehammer hands.
Volkanovski’s strength gives him the edge inside and Kennedy’s usual gameplan puts him well within that overhand right’s limited range. Unless Kennedy has a jab and commensurate distance striking game to go along with it, the local boy overpowers him in the pocket for either a grinding-heavy decision or late stoppage via strikes.
Prediction: Volkanovski via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Jussier Formigavs. Ben Nguyen
It’s been more than eight years since Jussier Formiga (20-5) beat Shinichi Kojima to become the world’s top Flyweight, but he’s certainly done well for himself in UFC. After a rough 1-2 start that featured losses to John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez, the Brazilian won five of his next seven bouts, most recently choking out “Ulka” Sasaki in Japan.
He has two inches of reach on ‘Ben 10.”
Ben Nguyen (17-6) went from viral sensation to legitimate contender in just five UFC fights, losing only to Louis Smolka in a barnburner during that span. His latest win was his biggest to date, a 49-second submission of Tim Elliott that earned him “Performance of the Night” honors.
He has knocked out nine opponents and submitted another five.
For my money, Formiga has the best back takes and back control since a prime B.J. Penn. He excels at exploiting any tiny opportunity he’s given and is an absolute leech once he gets his hooks in. He’s held his own on the mat against the likes of Wilson Reis and Ray Borg and has a significantly better body of work against world-class Flyweight fighters.
I just can’t pick against Nguyen, though. “Ben 10” might be the biggest puncher in the division and has shown much, much improved scrambling and takedown defense since that donnybrook against Smolka. He’s young, explosive and packs more than enough heat to crack Formiga’s jaw. Though another Formiga victory through positional brilliance is possible, my gut says Nguyen scores his biggest scalp to date.
Prediction: Nguyen via first-round technical knockout
If nothing else, Romero vs. Rockhold is some A++ matchmaking — can’t wait! See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 25-3Comment -
Patrick Stumberg gambling tips..
UFC 221 Odds For The Undercard:
Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Damien Brown (+135)
Israel Adesanya (-300) vs. Rob Wilkinson (+250)
Alex Volkanovski (-170) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (+150)
Jussier Formiga (-130) vs. Ben Nguyen (+110)
Ross Pearson (-145) vs. Mizuto Hirota (+125)
Jose Quinonez (-220) vs. Teruto Ishihara (+180)
Daichi Abe (-130) vs. Luke Jumeau (+110)
Thoughts: You know what? I think it’s Ben Nguyen’s time.
Since his loss to Louis Smolka, Nguyen’s scrambling and counter-wrestling have improved leaps and bounds. Combined with his athleticism and stunning punching power, he’s become a legitimate threat to the division. I thought he had a real shot against Joseph Benavidez before that fight fell through and I believe his speed and power will carry him past Formiga. Aside from “Ben 10,” Dong Hyun Kim seems like a safe investment. He’s a proven scrapper who can hold his own on the feet and a sufficiently skilled takedown artist to keep Brown guessing all night.
UFC 221 Odds For The Main Card:
Luke Rockhold (-140) vs. Yoel Romero (+130)
Curtis Blaydes (-155) vs. Mark Hunt (+135)
Tai Tuivasa (-280) vs. Cyril Asker (+240)
Li Jingliang (-190) vs. Jake Matthews (+165)
Tyson Pedro (-265) vs. Saparbek Safarov (+225)
Thoughts: Putting Li Jingliang and Tyson Pedro together produces positive odds, so let’s work with that.
The majority of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media believe that Jake Matthews deserved the “L” in his Welterweight debut against Bojan Velickovic. And while I had it for Matthews, it wasn’t exactly a heartening performance. Li can match Velickovic’s prodigious strength and offers a cleaner, more powerful striking attack to back it up. I fully expect Li to tear up Matthews on the feet and hold his own in the grappling.
I know this sounds mean, but I believe any Light Heavyweight who can’t comfortably beat Gian Villante does not belong in UFC. Even giving Safarov the benefit of the doubt for it being a short-notice fight, that just wasn’t enough to sway me. Pedro’s striking is significantly smoother than Villante’s and his takedowns ought to be more than sufficient to overpower Safarov should the stand up get too hairy for him.
UFC 221 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Ben Nguyen: Bet $50 to make $55
- Single bet -- Dong Hyun Kim: Bet $77.50 to make $50
- Parlay -- Li Jingliang and Tyson Pedro: Bet $70 to make $77
Luke Rockhold vs. Yoel Romero is the stuff dreams and highlight reels are made of. The rest? Well, that’s up to you. See you Saturday, Maniacs!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC 221 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Initial Investment For 2018: $300
Current Total: $803.27
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I'm torn on a few fights as of now. I'll need to research more for even a ToutMaster play
Rockhold/Romero
Nguyen/Formiga
Matthews/JingliangComment
