UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Saint Preux (August 16, 2014)

[BIGDAY]

I'm just glad there is a freekin card coming up.

Starting to to get the shakes..

[marzwoody]

More importantly, is his knickname "The Diceman" Ticeman? or "The Nice Man" Ticeman?

Its the Lice Man bro, no one wants to grapple with him.

[Wilbo86]

Just watched Tavares vs Romero... is there any chance Romero isn't on an incredible amount of juice? Its impossible a 36 yr old is naturally that athletic and quick, Cuban genes and a wrestling pedigree can only take you so far.

[omalley21]

I can't post on psychedelics any more. Tolerance builds too quickly, so I only trip 1-2 times per month. No chance I'm wasting that time on you fags.

Speaking of psychedelics, I went really deep on shrooms recently thinking that I'd be fine, as I've gone incredibly deep on LSD with no ill effects. I completely lost my perception of time and reality, which was fine, until I got to the point where even if I focused, I couldn't form a coherent thought. If you've never done shrooms, most psychedelics (all that I know of), to some degree, feel as if you're dreaming while you're awake. This is because psilocybin and LSD activate the part of your brain responsible for dreaming. This is what causes "hallucinations". When people spoke to me, I could comprehend every individual word, but I could only really piece together a couple of words at a time. By the time someone finished a sentence, I had forgotten the beginning. Ended up feeling like I wanted to sleep (still tripping balls at this point), went to my friend's attic (which is his guest bedroom), and sat there in the dark. After a few seconds, I started to wonder if I had actually gotten there. It's a couple of flights of stairs, and I got there in what felt like three seconds, despite the fact that I thought I couldn't stand up because I couldn't feel my legs. I started to think that I was still downstairs on the couch with my friends, just hallucinating, then I realized that my pants were off. So, there's a part of me sitting there thinking "can they see my balls right now?", then I try to lay down, and all I can see are mouths all over the focking bed. At this point, I'm losing my ability to think clearly again. I tried to stick my fingers in one of them to convince myself it wasn't real but I could barely form a thought at that point, and it felt as if the mouth bit my finger. I couldn't think at all by now, I could only feel and see, and I was only feeling and seeing dread. It was the first time in my life that I had forgotten I was on drugs. Went through some dreadful anxiety for a while, even worried that I was a danger to myself, then I had a conversation with a buddy and I was okay. Once I had that conversation, I regained some of my ability to think clearly and cohesively, and I started to understand what was going on around me again. A few Simpsons eps later and I was golden.

Probably the most intense experience of my life, and I was only in that attic for half an hour or so I think. Can't even describe how awesome bird documentaries were.

LMFAO. Had me cracking up. I ate a quarter (way too much) of shrooms one time when I was in high school so I can relate.. Was a very scary experience. Basically haven't taken them since. I think I'll try em again at a more reasonable dosage.

[JIBBBY]

Just watched Tavares vs Romero... is there any chance Romero isn't on an incredible amount of juice? Its impossible a 36 yr old is naturally that athletic and quick, Cuban genes and a wrestling pedigree can only take you so far.

Probably juicing, but that dude has always looked like a mini Hulk.. Some guys just carry that muscle gene and are naturally stacked.. Tough call.. Then again, most guys in MMA are juicing in some way or another and especially when getting up in age like 36..

[JIBBBY]

Was gonna cap another prelim fight online and post but I already hammered out all of the fights already. It would be a complete waste of my time...

I've been shakey with the prelims in the last 3 or 4 events but have been solid in the Main Events. I wanted to spend more time on the these prelims but I know I won't change my mind if i do..

[JIBBBY]

Turned my attention to prop bets last night.. For value these 3 props caught my attention..

(Boetcsh wins inside the distance +830) Tim's got punching power and thinking KO possibly
(OSP wins in 1st round +550) OSP might crack the suspect chin of Bader's early on
(Formiga wins inside the distance +430) Sub win maybe

Any prop ideas gents?

[Rubber Guard]

Osp by dec +725

[TheCalculator]

Probably juicing, but that dude has always looked like a mini Hulk.. Some guys just carry that muscle gene and are naturally stacked.. Tough call.. Then again, most guys in MMA are juicing in some way or another and especially when getting up in age like 36..

I would say there's a 1% chance he's that kind of genetic freaks. They exist... but they are VERY rare.

[JIBBBY]

Osp by dec +725

My thoughts on this prop Rubber Guard for what ever it's worth -

Ryan Bader is a high energy and wrestling based fighter, so OSP is not gonna out point Bader on the ground, and if it stays standing OSP probably knocks out Bader before the final bell.. Bader is gonna look to clinch up and go for take downs.. He will be the aggressor I think

Could OSP keep the fight standing and maybe out box and out point Bader without knocking him out before the 5 rounds? Probably not happening..

I also think it's always smart money to bet on the fighter with the better cardio and wrestling especially in a 5 rounder with the bigger guys when going for a decision win bet.

I think this prop should be more like +1500 to be honest... Good eye though rubber guard and I could be wrong...


I think Ryan Bader has an outside chance for a decision victory though... +235 wasn't good enough odds for me to roll the dice on that prop though..


Alvey wins inside the distance +425.. Alvey does have some good striking but not alot of power unfortunately...Want to pull the trigger on this but I'm a little unsure... I'm leaning more towards Alvey by decision but at only +170 that's not a go either for me....

[Jim_Gunn]

Turned my attention to prop bets last night.. For value these 3 props caught my attention..

(Boetcsh wins inside the distance +830) Tim's got punching power and thinking KO possibly
(OSP wins in 1st round +550) OSP might crack the suspect chin of Bader's early on
(Formiga wins inside the distance +430) Sub win maybe

Any prop ideas gents?

I put a $10 flyer on Ross Pearson wins in round 1 at +475. Gray Maynard's chin may be shot.

[JIBBBY]

I put a $10 flyer on Ross Pearson wins in round 1 at +475. Gray Maynard's chin may be shot.

That could work....

I'm on Gray to win so I can't pull the trigger unless it's for back up purposes only... I don't like insurance.. That means your questioning your original play unfortunately..

A few of the Taverez and Mcmann props are very tempting though.. Still working those out in my head..

If you guys continue to share your prop ideas I will too... I'm all about TEAM work because it works!!!

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Turned my attention to prop bets last night.. For value these 3 props caught my attention..

(Boetcsh wins inside the distance +830) Tim's got punching power and thinking KO possibly
(OSP wins in 1st round +550) OSP might crack the suspect chin of Bader's early on
(Formiga wins inside the distance +430) Sub win maybe

Any prop ideas gents?

Formiga via Sub instead of ITD. The other 2 have no chance of cashing. Tavares via Decision is going to cash.

[MD]

I would say there's a 1% chance he's that kind of genetic freaks. They exist... but they are VERY rare.

Uh, have you ever seen Romero compete?

He's about as rare as athletes get.

[Bumdeal]

Formiga via Sub instead of ITD. The other 2 have no chance of cashing. Tavares via Decision is going to cash.

Bader could be dumb enough to start slugging with OSP and go down in the first. It has a chance of cashing.

[Crassus]

Formiga via Sub instead of ITD. The other 2 have no chance of cashing. Tavares via Decision is going to cash.

Formiga prop wasn't up at that point.

[Bumdeal]

Everyone stop betting on Formiga.

Makovsky won't lose!

[Wilbo86]

Bader by dicision, OSP ITD.
May to Win
Makovsky to Win
Pearson by KO, Straight
Jordan/May under 1.5

[JIBBBY]

Formiga via Sub instead of ITD. The other 2 have no chance of cashing. Tavares via Decision is going to cash.

I'm assuming Thiago and not Brad Tavares right?

If Tim Boetsch loses this fight it's gonna be by KO.. This fight doesn't go the distance if it's that fight you are talking about. I don't see the prop up for Thiago so I just answered my own question..

Alot of new props popped up on the board... THIS IS GOOD!!!!

[Jim_Gunn]

Formiga via Sub instead of ITD.

Exactly. I passed on the Jussier ITD prop because I knew that submission prop would be a lot better. Just put a flyer on it at +625.

[JIBBBY]

Formiga prop wasn't up at that point.

It sure wasn't, I just hit that at +625 right now..

[Wilbo86]

I'm assuming Thiago and not Brad Tavares right?

If Tim Boetsch loses this fight it's gonna be by KO.. This fight doesn't go the distance if it's that fight you are talking about. I don't see the prop up for Thiago so I just answered my own question..

Alot of new props popped up on the board... THIS IS GOOD!!!!

Jesus Christ jibby, the last 7 Tavares fights ended in decision. Of his 9 fights in the UFC only 1 has ended in KO.

[JIBBBY]

Jesus Christ jibby, the last 7 Tavares fights ended in decision. Of his 9 fights in the UFC only 1 has ended in KO.

I know Wilbo but I'm not thinking about Tavares, I'm thinking more if Tim Boetcsh really is washed up and done and on his way out of the UFC, then he won't make it to the final bell. He will be looking for a way out early on, gas out, or just get knocked out or sub'd before the end of the 3rd..

I'm still thinking Timmy has one more good fight in him though.. We'll see?. This is win or get fired and released time for TB I think...

Tavares ITD at +325 would seem like the more logical play in my mind if you think he is gonna win the fight..... Just my opinion..

[Wilbo86]

I know Wilbo but I'm not thinking about Tavares, I'm thinking more if Tim Boetcsh really is washed up and done and on his way out of the UFC, then he won't make it to the final bell. He will be looking for a way out early on, gas out, or just get knocked out or sub'd before the end of the 3rd..

I'm still thinking Timmy has one more good fight in him though.. We'll see?.

You contradicted yourself there. Its one or the other.

And yes its possible Boetsch gets finished but I wouldn't say its the most likely outcome

[JIBBBY]

You contradicted yourself there. Its one or the other.

And yes its possible Boetsch gets finished but I wouldn't say its the most likely outcome

I'm thinking about how either fighter could win or lose this fight regardless of who I picked or bet on straight Wilbo.

I just think Tim Boetsch will find a way to win this fight, but I also think if he loses this fight it will probably happen early on to avoid prolonged pain and suffering.... If he's really a tomato can now, burnt out on fighting mentally and just looking for a final paycheck from Zuffa then he's gonna be looking for an early exit as soon as he takes the first hard punch to the face..

I don't think he is can status yet or wanting to lose his job based on what I've been reading... We see...



That's it Wilbo... Just discussing the prop.. I do like your chances in other prop plays though for what ever that is worth.. Thanks for sharing....

[latarianmilton]

My thoughts on this prop Rubber Guard for what ever it's worth -

Ryan Bader is a high energy and wrestling based fighter, so OSP is not gonna out point Bader on the ground, and if it stays standing OSP probably knocks out Bader before the final bell.. Bader is gonna look to clinch up and go for take downs.. He will be the aggressor I think

Could OSP keep the fight standing and maybe out box and out point Bader without knocking him out before the 5 rounds? Probably not happening..

I also think it's always smart money to bet on the fighter with the better cardio and wrestling especially in a 5 rounder with the bigger guys when going for a decision win bet.

I think this prop should be more like +1500 to be honest... Good eye though rubber guard and I could be wrong...


I think Ryan Bader has an outside chance for a decision victory though... +235 wasn't good enough odds for me to roll the dice on that prop though..


Alvey wins inside the distance +425.. Alvey does have some good striking but not alot of power unfortunately...Want to pull the trigger on this but I'm a little unsure... I'm leaning more towards Alvey by decision but at only +170 that's not a go either for me....

Bader is a pretty nightmare matchup for osp, he's always been weak to wrestling even mousassi controlled him easily, the most likely scenario is bader to outwrestle him like he has done to rampage/ feijao/ perosh

From what i've seen of both especially of osp i thought this fight would open at around -300 for bader, so im surprised the line is sitll at -170

But i've bet on osp in his last 2 fights and on the cook fight, so im kind of on the fence if to bet against him its like luck is on his side or something, after all this is 205 osp has a good punch and bader a crappy chin

[Domestic]

Anyone think the Mcmann fight has any chance of going under?

[MarkWoodstick]

Bader is a pretty nightmare matchup for osp, he's always been weak to wrestling even mousassi controlled him easily, the most likely scenario is bader to outwrestle him like he has done to rampage/ feijao/ perosh

From what i've seen of both especially of osp i thought this fight would open at around -300 for bader, so im surprised the line is sitll at -170

But i've bet on osp in his last 2 fights and on the cook fight, so im kind of on the fence if to bet against him its like luck is on his side or something, after all this is 205 osp has a good punch and bader a crappy chin

I would be reluctant to pool OSP in with those guys. I imagine OSP's size and athleticism has to count for something when these two grapple. Those other fighters you managed were not only inferior to Bader in grappling chops but in fitness/athleticism. Ultimately, Bader is a division one wrestler and OSP is a former football player, so Bader will have some advantage grappling. I just can't imagine Bader completely dominating grappling exchanges.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Bader could be dumb enough to start slugging with OSP and go down in the first. It has a chance of cashing.

Yes. I suppose you could be right. But, I will always wonder if Bader threw the fight vs Ortiz. We will never know.

[Crassus]

I would be reluctant to pool OSP in with those guys. I imagine OSP's size and athleticism has to count for something when these two grapple. Those other fighters you managed were not only inferior to Bader in grappling chops but in fitness/athleticism. Ultimately, Bader is a division one wrestler and OSP is a former football player, so Bader will have some advantage grappling. I just can't imagine Bader completely dominating grappling exchanges.

Perosh is literally one of the best BJJ guys in Australia he's no slouch on the ground. Feijao has displayed some of the best TDD in MMA (he's Blackhouse's TDD coach) and Bader had his way with him in that regard. Make no mistake, OSP is probably doomed if he can't keep it on the feet. I'd say he has 1 round to do it, that's why I put some money on OSP in round 1. This is a guy who got outwrestled by Gegard Mousasi we're talking about. He's got speed and power, so he might be able to clock Bader and get the finish, but I only see it happening in the first round before Bader tires him out.

[JIBBBY]

Anyone think the Mcmann fight has any chance of going under?

Doubt it as both are pretty tough girls Domestic.. I'm thinking Mcmann by decision myself... -155..

Hey but you never know - Mcmann could pound her out late in this fight..

Mcmann wins inside the distance +334 is tempting though... If ya really wanna gamble and throw darts at a board Mcmann winning in the 3rd round pays out at +1475..

[PunisherIND]

[JIBBBY]

From what i've seen of both especially of osp i thought this fight would open at around -300 for bader, so im surprised the line is sitll at -170

I agree.. Bader's chin makes me nervous with the punching power of OSP early on. Other then that it should be all Bader in this fight.. I'm on Bader straight and will have him in a few small parlays.. I always thought OSP to be a little over rated...

[Keyboard Warrior]

Doubt it as both are pretty tough girls Domestic.. I'm thinking Mcmann by decision myself... -155.. Hey but you never know - Mcmann could pound her out late in this fight.. Mcmann wins inside the distance +334 is tempting though... If ya really wanna gamble and throw darts at a board Mcmann winning in the 3rd round pays out at +1475..

so dumb, Glass body glass jaw mcmann might finish literally the toughest woman in the divison

[JIBBBY]

^^ Way to unload on us Punisher!!! lol..

Ya know I was thinking of this Tim Boetsch fight, Tavarez is tough and a durable dude sure, but that Okami KO by Tim came late in their fight and has got me thinking.. Tim could deliver late in this fight if Tavarez starts to gas and they both start trading late in the 3rd.. Timmy has shown power punching late in fights..

Tim Boetcsh to win in 3rd round + 2650.....Long shot but just maybe.. I put 5 bucks on it to win 132.... I'll gambe..