UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs. Brown (July 26, 2014)

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  • Vaughany
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 03-07-10
    • 45563

    #141
    Originally posted by JIBBBY
    Just a wild guess, what do you think? Both are very durable and haven't been finished off in years...

    Guida was last stopped in a fight in 2009, Bermudez 2011 (7 fights ago)...



    http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184
    What?! Confusing the fuuck out of me jibbbeh! If your rationale is tht they are both very durable and havent been finished in years then how the hell can you predict -150 for a three round fight between the two to go the distance?!
    Comment
    • Skel
      SBR MVP
      • 03-04-14
      • 1284

      #142
      Originally posted by JIBBBY
      Just a wild guess, what do you think? Both are very durable and haven't been finished off in years...

      Guida was last stopped in a fight in 2009, Bermudez 2011 (7 fights ago)...



      http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184
      Comment
      • Dwil125
        SBR MVP
        • 11-08-12
        • 2048

        #143
        Wow guida decision prop sucks hes +145 and like +138 straight.
        Comment
        • JIBBBY
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-10-09
          • 83686

          #144
          Originally posted by Vaughany
          What?! Confusing the fuuck out of me jibbbeh! If your rationale is tht they are both very durable and havent been finished in years then how the hell can you predict -150 for a three round fight between the two to go the distance?!
          First off V I only started betting prop bets just 3 weeks ago in MMA, cut me some slack.. Better at picking the fights then the lines.. I'll laugh though if it comes out at -150..
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          • getlucky2win
            SBR MVP
            • 01-14-12
            • 1119

            #145
            lawler by sub
            rumble by sub
            guida itd
            porlay and round robinz
            Comment
            • JIBBBY
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-10-09
              • 83686

              #146
              Originally posted by Skel

              The Chad Mendes fight didn't go the distance.. I saw 3 rounds on sherdog and missed that one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184 My bad.. Thanks for the correction Skel.. Guida was stopped 2 fights ago in 2013.. Still a very durable fighter regardless..

              I hate making factual stat mistakes like this.. THANKS....
              Comment
              • JIBBBY
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-10-09
                • 83686

                #147
                Originally posted by getlucky2win
                lawler by sub
                rumble by sub
                Both by sub? Really? Both are standup power punchers, no?... Does rumble even have a sub on his record? Crazy odds offered up on all your bets including Guida ITD......and I see what you did now..

                I might throw 20 bucks on each and see if one sticks.. Might be worth a try.. Hmmm?
                Comment
                • Dwil125
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-08-12
                  • 2048

                  #148
                  I took Bermudez decision at +240
                  Comment
                  • PunisherIND
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-24-11
                    • 4983

                    #149
                    Originally posted by Dwil125
                    I took Bermudez decision at +240


                    caught it as well.
                    Comment
                    • Dwil125
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-08-12
                      • 2048

                      #150
                      Originally posted by PunisherIND


                      caught it as well.
                      already dropped down to +140 that was quick.
                      Comment
                      • JIBBBY
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-10-09
                        • 83686

                        #151
                        Originally posted by Dwil125
                        I took Bermudez decision at +240
                        +140 on 5D now.. Like this play as well especially at +240 if that is what ya got it at... Brilliant!!!!

                        Gotta stay on top of it when the lines first come out.. WOW....
                        Comment
                        • JIBBBY
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-10-09
                          • 83686

                          #152
                          Green wins inside the distance +1190... Those are crazy odds even though I think Thompson will win....

                          Comment
                          • JIBBBY
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-10-09
                            • 83686

                            #153
                            Guida/Bermudez to go the distance - 265...

                            My -150 guess was way off...

                            So a half a round in this case is just a -25 reduction in price when comparing bets....Interesting...

                            Just taking it all in fellas... Bare with me please.... I'm learning....
                            Comment
                            • Thor4140
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-09-08
                              • 22296

                              #154
                              rumble by sub lol.
                              Comment
                              • PunisherIND
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-24-11
                                • 4983

                                #155
                                Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                Guida/Bermudez to go the distance - 265...

                                My -150 guess was way off...

                                So a half a round in this case is just a -25 reduction in price when comparing bets....Interesting...

                                Just taking it all in fellas... Bare with me please.... I'm learning....
                                well, not many fights end in the final 2:30 of the 3rd round, so it makes sense.
                                Comment
                                • Dwil125
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-08-12
                                  • 2048

                                  #156
                                  Odds out
                                  Comment
                                  • UncleChael
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-30-13
                                    • 3979

                                    #157
                                    Bobby Green might be the play the boys...
                                    Comment
                                    • JIBBBY
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-10-09
                                      • 83686

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by Thor4140
                                      rumble by sub lol.
                                      Thor I agree - Those massive odds are ever so tempting though at times..

                                      I couldn't throw down a 20 spot on that prop even at +10,000 now that I really thought about it.

                                      It's a dammn shame they don't make a prop (Rumble will not win by sub).. Even at -3000 I'd max bet that...

                                      If rumble wins this fight it's either gonna be by KO or ref stoppage due to ground strikes.. Even if Lil Nog got dropped and gave up his back on a silver platter Rumble would still finish the fight with ground strikes..

                                      I could never see Rumble Johnson even attempting to go for a sub in a fight at this level.. Does he even know how to sub someone let alone a Brazilian black belt like little Nog? LOL again..
                                      Comment
                                      • MD
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-31-12
                                        • 9728

                                        #159
                                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                        The Chad Mendes fight didn't go the distance.. I saw 3 rounds on sherdog and missed that one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184
                                        Jesus fock.
                                        Comment
                                        • JIBBBY
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-10-09
                                          • 83686

                                          #160
                                          Originally posted by UncleChael
                                          Bobby Green might be the play the boys...
                                          I played the prop (Green to win inside the distance +1190) really small just in case... It's decent insurance, not great insurance though as Green could by miracle win by decision.. I porlay'd Thompson up already and got tiny regrets....

                                          Thompson has fought some of the best recently..

                                          Comment
                                          • Dwil125
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-08-12
                                            • 2048

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                            well, not many fights end in the final 2:30 of the 3rd round, so it makes sense.
                                            Robbie lawler and Jake ellenberger...
                                            Comment
                                            • Dwil125
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-08-12
                                              • 2048

                                              #162
                                              Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                              I played the prop (Green to win inside the distance +1190) really small just in case... It's decent insurance, not great insurance though as Green could by miracle win by decision.. I porlay'd Thompson up already and got tiny regrets....

                                              Thompson has fought some of the best recently..

                                              http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394
                                              If green wins it will be by decision. Didnt you watch strikeforce? Thomson is really tough
                                              Comment
                                              • UncleChael
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-30-13
                                                • 3979

                                                #163
                                                Dennis Bermurdez looked good his last fight .. He finishes Guida it's +500 that seems like good $$$$ anyone else??
                                                Comment
                                                • MD
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 01-31-12
                                                  • 9728

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by Dwil125
                                                  If green wins it will be by decision. Didnt you watch strikeforce? Thomson is really tough
                                                  He's lost three of his last five, so he can't be that tough.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Educ8d Degener8
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-12-10
                                                    • 3177

                                                    #165
                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                    ...

                                                    It's a dammn shame they don't make a prop (Rumble will not win by sub).. Even at -3000 I'd max bet that...
                                                    How about -7005?

                                                    Sat 7/26 1139 Johnson wins by submission <input id="editx" name="M1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2335
                                                    9:00PM 1140 Any other result <input id="editx" name="M2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -7005
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JIBBBY
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-10-09
                                                      • 83686

                                                      #166
                                                      Originally posted by Dwil125
                                                      If green wins it will be by decision. Didnt you watch strikeforce? Thomson is really tough
                                                      Like I said Dwil it's "not great insurance" but it's still insurance never the less.. +1190 goes along way...

                                                      Only way Green wins this fight is by standing and striking so you never know? 3 rounds to work with..... He's certainly not gonna win it on the ground grappling against Thompson anyways..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • snufflyjoe
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 07-26-11
                                                        • 476

                                                        #167
                                                        You guys are crazy betting Lawler this will turn out to be the squarest bet of the year.

                                                        I hear the same thing getting repeated about this fight..Lawler has a bad "Style" for Brown. Lawler is the more technical Striker and will be too much for the brawling Matt Brown.

                                                        Brown has beaten more "technical" strikers before... Jordan Mein and wonderboy were both highly respected strikers and Matt Brown raped them in the showers. Brown closed as a +300 and +200 dog for both of these fights now here we are again with another more technical striker who is supposed to run through Matt Brown .

                                                        All of lawlers recent wins in the UFC have been against wrestlers why is everyone making the assumption that Lawler can deal with the pressure that Matt Brown will bring? Brown is nasty as fcuk in close quarters and won't play the range game with lawler he will get in Lawlers face unload strikes, Takedowns, Submission attempts relentlessly on Lawler.

                                                        Lawler will be Browns toughest fight ever no doubt about it and Robbie is a rightful favourite. But the way people are discounting Brown's chances are crazy to me. Betting -300 and more on Lawler is asking for trouble

                                                        The Line on Brown will get better and better as the public is well and truly on Lawlers nuts. On sherdog almost 85% of people believe Lawler will win.

                                                        Brown is the bet here fellas - Flame away!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Grabaka
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-19-11
                                                          • 3216

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by snufflyjoe
                                                          You guys are crazy betting Lawler this will turn out to be the squarest bet of the year.

                                                          I hear the same thing getting repeated about this fight..Lawler has a bad "Style" for Brown. Lawler is the more technical Striker and will be too much for the brawling Matt Brown.

                                                          Brown has beaten more "technical" strikers before... Jordan Mein and wonderboy were both highly respected strikers and Matt Brown raped them in the showers. Brown closed as a +300 and +200 dog for both of these fights now here we are again with another more technical striker who is supposed to run through Matt Brown .

                                                          All of lawlers recent wins in the UFC have been against wrestlers why is everyone making the assumption that Lawler can deal with the pressure that Matt Brown will bring? Brown is nasty as fcuk in close quarters and won't play the range game with lawler he will get in Lawlers face unload strikes, Takedowns, Submission attempts relentlessly on Lawler.

                                                          Lawler will be Browns toughest fight ever no doubt about it and Robbie is a rightful favourite. But the way people are discounting Brown's chances are crazy to me. Betting -300 and more on Lawler is asking for trouble

                                                          The Line on Brown will get better and better as the public is well and truly on Lawlers nuts. On sherdog almost 85% of people believe Lawler will win.

                                                          Brown is the bet here fellas - Flame away!

                                                          Comment
                                                          • JIBBBY
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-10-09
                                                            • 83686

                                                            #169
                                                            Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
                                                            How about -7005?

                                                            Sat 7/26 1139 Johnson wins by submission <input id="editx" name="M1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2335
                                                            9:00PM 1140 Any other result <input id="editx" name="M2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -7005
                                                            I didn't see that... Thanks.... -7005 is nuts but that is about as close to a lock as you'll ever get gambling in MMA..

                                                            $7005 bucks to win $100... Lol... Can you even place that without maxing out on 5D?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MarkWoodstick
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 06-18-14
                                                              • 221

                                                              #170
                                                              Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                              -7005 is nuts but that is about as close to a lock as you'll ever get gambling.. So even if Johnson loses the fight in any manner the bet still cashes...

                                                              That's a lock I'm sorry... $7005 bucks to win $100... Lol... Can you even max that?
                                                              The problem with that bet though is if Johnson wins by submission, you've lost $7005.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bjpenn85
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-17-11
                                                                • 5059

                                                                #171
                                                                Wonderboy wasnt half the fighter he is today, and did matt brown really beat him standing up? If i remember correctly he took him down, so if am right thats just a big fat lie.Jordan Meins striking is good, but he is only a mediocre fighter compared to lawler. Can brown keep the pressure on lawler like he has against silva and jordan mein? I mean silvas cardio is bullshit and pyle also got manhandles against rory. The odds tells a story of a fighter that has beaten garbage against a guy that has beaten rory macdonal, jake ellenberger and maybe jhonny hendricks. People doubting matt brown - with good reason. When that being said, matt browns style matchup is def tricky. But is def easier to emulate browns style than f.ex mighty mouse or jon jones. If lawlers team is smart, they have peoople going bananas on lawlers ass so he is well prepared.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • getlucky2win
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-14-12
                                                                  • 1119

                                                                  #172
                                                                  lol. jibby can u give us sum inside info since u r n the mecca of mma? like who has the biggest hog advantage. who u got jib? i bet a chalk parlay. lawler johnson bermudez thompson. wit rr and strait bets of course. i mite arb or hedge wit sum props tho depending on lines. actually been hittin opening lines since wsop ended
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MD
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 01-31-12
                                                                    • 9728

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                    Wonderboy wasnt half the fighter he is today, and did matt brown really beat him standing up? If i remember correctly he took him down, so if am right thats just a big fat lie.
                                                                    Wonderboy's only real sustained offence in the fight was in round two, where he managed to rock Brown, and hurt him with a body kick. Thompson chased Brown around the cage trying to throw combos for a while, and then Brown stepped in and dropped Wonderboy with an elbow.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Vaughany
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 03-07-10
                                                                      • 45563

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                      First off V I only started betting prop bets just 3 weeks ago in MMA, cut me some slack.. Better at picking the fights then the lines.. I'll laugh though if it comes out at -150..
                                                                      -265... Not far off
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                                        • 83686

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by snufflyjoe
                                                                        You guys are crazy betting Lawler this will turn out to be the squarest bet of the year.

                                                                        I hear the same thing getting repeated about this fight..Lawler has a bad "Style" for Brown. Lawler is the more technical Striker and will be too much for the brawling Matt Brown.

                                                                        Brown has beaten more "technical" strikers before... Jordan Mein and wonderboy were both highly respected strikers and Matt Brown raped them in the showers. Brown closed as a +300 and +200 dog for both of these fights now here we are again with another more technical striker who is supposed to run through Matt Brown .

                                                                        All of lawlers recent wins in the UFC have been against wrestlers why is everyone making the assumption that Lawler can deal with the pressure that Matt Brown will bring? Brown is nasty as fcuk in close quarters and won't play the range game with lawler he will get in Lawlers face unload strikes, Takedowns, Submission attempts relentlessly on Lawler.

                                                                        Lawler will be Browns toughest fight ever no doubt about it and Robbie is a rightful favourite. But the way people are discounting Brown's chances are crazy to me. Betting -300 and more on Lawler is asking for trouble

                                                                        The Line on Brown will get better and better as the public is well and truly on Lawlers nuts. On sherdog almost 85% of people believe Lawler will win.

                                                                        Brown is the bet here fellas - Flame away!

                                                                        Good post.. No flaming here..

                                                                        Would have given you 2 brownie points or bet points for this post but I already gave them out for the day..

                                                                        One good body punch or kick to the mid section, solar plexus, and or stomach area and this blows up your theory of Matt Brown winning.. I did some research and Robbie Lawler can blast the body.... Lawler might just do some body hunting in this one.. He hits hard too...

                                                                        Oooops, did I forgot to mention the over used term - LIVER shot as well. What was I thinking? LOL..

                                                                        .http://www.break.com/video/ugc/bas-r...er-shot-294738
                                                                        Comment
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