UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos 3 (October 19, 2013)

**BIGDAY** · 10-15-13, 01:37 PM

Cain will destroy JDS.

Don't overthink this guys...

**BIGDAY** · 10-15-13, 02:48 PM

I do like the recent movement.

Ill be slamming Cain around -120 hopefully.

MD · 10-15-13, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by OracleAdam

The $200 is just one unit that it's OK if I lose. I think Dodson's a great all-around fighter that I'm sure is getting better, training with Greg Jackson. He seems to have a lot of passion for fighting. Looking at Montague's record, he hasn't fought any big names yet, and just got a recent split decision win.

Am I a troll? You've seen me post quite a bit, so you know what I'm about.

wat

Originally posted by OracleAdam

Looking at Montague's record, he hasn't fought any big names yet,

WAT

MD · 10-15-13, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by rosietop

200$ is 1 unit? wow.. 1 unit is supposed to be 1% of your bankroll.

so how much money did you have on Mike Pierce?

and yeah dude I also agree with the oddsmakers and believe Dodson should be the favorite but you should watch tape on the opponent, and with fights like these (going to decision) you always have to be weary of the judges call. Not saying they are going to mess it up but I personally would never go big on fights like these.

Paddy Power seem to have the odds up for the England Card. Nothing really jumps out so far..

The point of a "unit" is that it means nothing. There is no standard measure of what a unit is in a gambling context.

**Beelzebubzy** · 10-15-13, 03:55 PM

So 3.5% of your roll is nothing?

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by rosietop

His bets for Maia vs Shields weren't bad actually only reason he lost was because for some strange reason he decided that Mike Pierce was a "lock" and put down a million units on him. That is horrible betting strategy, you are depending on 1 big favorite to win to have a winning night, even if your other 4 bets win, you lose. Stupid gambling.

It's not a horrible betting strategy at all, its just horrible capping.

The higher your perceived edge, the larger your bet should be. I frequently have fight cards where something like 70% of my money is on one fight or prop, and will again on this card.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

no one is running them off

I've been trying!

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by MD

wat

WAT

You don't think its okay to lose? You gotta embrace losing if you're going to make it in this game. If you didn't lose sometimes, nobody would play with you.

MD · 10-15-13, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

You don't think its okay to lose? You gotta embrace losing if you're going to make it in this game. If you didn't lose sometimes, nobody would play with you.

Not due to negligence, no.

MD · 10-15-13, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

It's not a horrible betting strategy at all, its just horrible capping.

The higher your perceived edge, the larger your bet should be. I frequently have fight cards where something like 70% of my money is on one fight or prop, and will again on this card.

You're obviously not doing a good job of finding those 90% MeDges, then. Step your game up son.

Also, coconut water is f-cking amazing. 'Capper's best friend.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by MD

Also, coconut water is f-cking amazing. 'Capper's best friend.

penetrating gross. My wife loves that shit. We drank some right out of the coconut in CR, couldn't stand it.

I make coconut milk ice cream all the time though.

**Sanity Check** · 10-15-13, 04:23 PM

How does this parlay sound.

John Dodson
Tony Ferguson
Sarah Kaufman
KJ Noons

.

**Vaughany** · 10-15-13, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

A unit can represent any % of bank roll. However, quite a number of people choose to have it represent 1% of total bank roll.

Are you trying to impersonate Gunshard?!

MD · 10-15-13, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

How does this parlay sound.

John Dodson
Tony Ferguson
Sarah Kaufman
KJ Noons

.

From a guy named "Sanity Check"? Hilarious.

**sideloaded** · 10-15-13, 05:10 PM

**Sacrelicious** · 10-15-13, 05:27 PM

Loving this Kaufman line....

**sideloaded** · 10-15-13, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Loving this Kaufman line....

Yes she's faced some pretty high level fighters. I doubt more than two people could beat leslie smith that are in the ufc. Certainly better than Zoila Fraudsto and Carina Damm.

Kalikas brother is Eye's manager, I have no idea if that altered the line.

**Sacrelicious** · 10-15-13, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Yes she's faced some pretty high level fighters. I doubt more than two people could beat leslie smith that are in the ufc. Certainly better than Zoila Fraudsto and Carina Damm.

Kalikas brother is Eye's manager, I have no idea if that altered the line.

Wished I was funded at Sportsbook for the -185, but the current line at Dimes seems like a steal, will likely be my largest play of the entire night.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Yes she's faced some pretty high level fighters. I doubt more than two people could beat leslie smith that are in the ufc. Certainly better than Zoila Fraudsto and Carina Damm.

Kalikas brother is Eye's manager, I have no idea if that altered the line.

Wait a minute. All the times I said they were up to shennanigans you never mentioned this fact before?

**sideloaded** · 10-15-13, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Wished I was funded at Sportsbook for the -185, but the current line at Dimes seems like a steal, will likely be my largest play of the entire night.

Agree, Kaufman is really really good. Just has a weakness to the armbar and judo/guard game. Something Eye doesn't possess.

**sideloaded** · 10-15-13, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Wait a minute. All the times I said they were up to shennanigans you never mentioned this fact before?

hey meng i cant post all my secrets

**sideloaded** · 10-15-13, 05:44 PM

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/greg-kalikas/40/546/134

**Vaughany** · 10-15-13, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Wait a minute. All the times I said they were up to shennanigans you never mentioned this fact before?

He manages Rogers, Miocic as well. "Team Strongstyle" guys! Step up your research game cuz, the dude runs the Ohio MMA scene!

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

He manages Rogers, Miocic as well. "Team Strongstyle" guys! Step up your research game cuz, the dude runs the Ohio MMA scene!

Whatever, homo, you just looked at the same page I did when I googled "Jessica Eye" Kalikas!

**mmaed** · 10-15-13, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by MD

Best guy to beat Dodson is a point-fighting stand up guy. He may be the best counter-wrestler in MMA, certainly one of them.

Who is the best counter wrestler in mma?

**Noleafclover** · 10-15-13, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

It's not a horrible betting strategy at all, its just horrible capping.

The higher your perceived edge, the larger your bet should be. I frequently have fight cards where something like 70% of my money is on one fight or prop, and will again on this card.

You mean 70% of your money for the card, and not 70% of BR, right?

MD · 10-15-13, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Who is the best counter wrestler in mma?

Probably Aldo. Considering that his game pretty much revolves around forcing guys to shoot on him so he can punish them, he'd have to be pretty high on the list.

Originally posted by Noleafclover

You mean 70% of your money for the card, and not 70% of BR, right?

Of course.

**rocky16** · 10-15-13, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Cain will destroy JDS.

Don't overthink this guys...

Big day preach to these motha fockas.

**rocky16** · 10-15-13, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

no one is running them off

Sider these phagets are like cockroaches. I'm running around the forum with a can of raid and shit. Fockit pal.

**goodfellas433** · 10-15-13, 09:02 PM

Thoughts on gonzaga/ Jordan anyone? I have Jordan in a parlay and now I wish I skipped this fight altogether....

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

You mean 70% of your money for the card, and not 70% of BR, right?

Heh, of course.

MD · 10-15-13, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by goodfellas433

Thoughts on gonzaga/ Jordan anyone? I have Jordan in a parlay and now I wish I skipped this fight altogether....

Jordan has some of the best cardio in MMA history and pretty decent TDD. Even if Gonzaga wins round one, if he doesn't get the finish, he's in a lot of trouble.

**goodfellas433** · 10-15-13, 09:16 PM

Thanks, appreciate that md

**NunyaBidness** · 10-15-13, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by MD

Jordan has some of the best cardio in MMA history

Pretty sure you meant to throw the word Heavyweight in there someplace.

**Sanity Check** · 10-15-13, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by goodfellas433

Thoughts on gonzaga/ Jordan anyone? I have Jordan in a parlay and now I wish I skipped this fight altogether....

Jordan's main weakness is he's only been training in MMA something like 3-4 years. It takes time to learn the ground game to a point where a person develops the right habits and can defend submissions. A lot of newer guys like Matt Mitrione, Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson don't do well on the ground. They lack the experience. Shawn Jordan has been training in MMA for a shorter period of time than they have which could mean Jordan is suspect if he goes to the ground with Gonzaga who is known to have a great submission & ground game.

That said, Jordan also has an extremely defense body structure. He is like a walking juggernaut. Being from a football background his base is strong in a way that translates to Gonzaga having a hard time getting him down to work his submissions. Up till this point, Gonzaga hasn't shown much development with his takedowns. If he continues to fight the way he has in previous bouts, its doubtful he'll get Jordan down.

Jordan is also heavy handed. Gonzaga has improved his boxing a lot. But hasn't shown anything dangerous on his feet since he head kick KO'ed Cro Cop.

If it goes to the ground and Gonzaga gets a good position, he could well choke Jordan unconscious or make him tap.

But if it stays standing, Jordan probably has the advantage as long as he doesn't get careless.