UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos 3 (October 19, 2013)

**PunisherIND** · 09-28-13, 07:38 AM

amazing card. surprised they put the dodson fight on the main card over lombard.

**Sato** · 09-28-13, 11:41 AM

Marquardt yould be the party pooper. Dana aint having noneodat!

**Digo** · 09-30-13, 08:50 PM

I do see value on JDS at +196. I am following the news about his trainning camp almost everyday, he is ready for war. Best shape ever. It will be a very close fight.

**mmaed** · 09-30-13, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by Digo

I do see value on JDS at +196. I am following the news about his trainning camp almost everyday, he is ready for war. Best shape ever. It will be a very close fight.

Why do you like jds? He was destroyed wall to wall in their last fight. Doesnt that make you think the first fight was flukey?

**plekz** · 10-01-13, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by Digo

I do see value on JDS at +196. I am following the news about his trainning camp almost everyday, he is ready for war. Best shape ever. It will be a very close fight.

His shape is kind of beside the point when his head movement was still rookie-like in the Mark Hunt fight and he still showed that he is AWFUL at striking off of his backfoot and considering Cain is 100% forward pressure that is what he'll be doing an awful lot.

**Digo** · 10-01-13, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by mmaed

Why do you like jds? He was destroyed wall to wall in their last fight. Doesnt that make you think the first fight was flukey?

Well, as we saw in the second fight, even losing, it was pretty hard to take down JDS. The attempts to TD from velasquez early in the fight were very bad, it just changed the way of the fight when he starts to hit JDS in the stand up fighting, this time I think JDS will respect much more Velasquez's striking. Of course Velasquez is still favorite, i just think the chances of JSD are better than the odds are showing.

**JohnnyHemsley** · 10-01-13, 09:02 AM

charles oliveira

Check out his last 2 fights - Frankie Edgar (FOTN), where he may have won 1 round and went the distance.
and Cub Swanson. Top Dawgs at 145lbs.

Charles will be facing Jeremy Larsen, who is coming off 2 losses in UFC in bottom card fights.

This is a LOCK! But, may not find odds for the fight.
Anything at -350 or better is a wager!

**JohnnyHemsley** · 10-01-13, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

amazing card. surprised they put the dodson fight on the main card over lombard.

+1
Im am truly interested in the last 7 fights in the card!
Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt as the 6th fight from the main event is crazy. That is worthy of a co-main event on a UFC Fight Night card.

**Beelzebubzy** · 10-01-13, 09:55 AM

Sider where are you

**mmaed** · 10-01-13, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Digo

Well, as we saw in the second fight, even losing, it was pretty hard to take down JDS. The attempts to TD from velasquez early in the fight were very bad, it just changed the way of the fight when he starts to hit JDS in the stand up fighting, this time I think JDS will respect much more Velasquez's striking. Of course Velasquez is still favorite, i just think the chances of JSD are better than the odds are showing.

Okay. That makes some sense to me. Thanks for responding.

**Beelzebubzy** · 10-01-13, 01:48 PM

@mmaTAKEDOWNgame: UFC 166 - @DustinPague (86%) vs Kyoji Horiguchi (14%) - Who ya got?! http://t.co/TuwmGBCnVq #MMA @ufc #UFC166 http://t.co/BYMlad4kM2

**Noleafclover** · 10-14-13, 06:33 PM

Lombard's proved overrated, and Marquardt's fading a little. Where's the surprise, Dodson's for real. Sorry if he's not fat enough for you to enjoy it.

**sideloaded** · 10-14-13, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Sider where are you

i got a lot of research on eye.

**sideloaded** · 10-14-13, 09:05 PM

have a medium play for this womens fight but i like a bigger play on xfc this weekend wmma play of course

MD · 10-14-13, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

Lombard's proved overrated, and Marquardt's fading a little. Where's the surprise, Dodson's for real. Sorry if he's not fat enough for you to enjoy it.

Dunno about that. I think he's exactly as good as I did three years ago. Maybe even a little bit better. I think he only gets overrated by idiots who see him KOing cans and think he's a beast.

**sideloaded** · 10-14-13, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by MD

Dunno about that. I think he's exactly as good as I did three years ago. Maybe even a little bit better. I think he only gets overrated by idiots who see him KOing cans and think he's a beast.

MD, I know you have some inside contact with joanne calderwood, who does she train wrestling with?

**OracleAdam** · 10-14-13, 10:54 PM

I put down a little for a five fight parlay on the favorites:

10/14/13 11:48pm	$200.00	$541.89	Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Pending	10/19/13 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Cain Velasquez -230* vs Junior dos Santos
				Pending	10/19/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -525* vs Roy Nelson
				Pending	10/19/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Gilbert Melendez -650* vs Diego Sanchez
				Pending	10/19/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Shawn Jordan -225* vs Gabriel Gonzaga
				Pending	10/19/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 John Dodson -330* vs Darrell Montague

Out of all these, the fight I'm most in doubt about is the Velasquez/Dos Santos. And I have never seen Darrell Montague fight. Any thoughts?

**Vaughany** · 10-15-13, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by OracleAdam

I put down a little for a five fight parlay on the favorites:

10/14/13 11:48pm	$200.00	$541.89	Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Pending	10/19/13 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Cain Velasquez -230* vs Junior dos Santos
				Pending	10/19/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -525* vs Roy Nelson
				Pending	10/19/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Gilbert Melendez -650* vs Diego Sanchez
				Pending	10/19/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Shawn Jordan -225* vs Gabriel Gonzaga
				Pending	10/19/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 John Dodson -330* vs Darrell Montague

Out of all these, the fight I'm most in doubt about is the Velasquez/Dos Santos. And I have never seen Darrell Montague fight. Any thoughts?

Never seen them fight = bet against them. I like it

**rosietop** · 10-15-13, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Never seen them fight = bet against them. I like it

I seriously dont know if this guy is a good troll, just new to the game or just stupid.

His bets for Maia vs Shields weren't bad actually only reason he lost was because for some strange reason he decided that Mike Pierce was a "lock" and put down a million units on him. That is horrible betting strategy, you are depending on 1 big favorite to win to have a winning night, even if your other 4 bets win, you lose. Stupid gambling.

Now the Oracle wants to lay $200 against a guy who he hasent seen fight. nice. real nice. What happens if Dodson breaks his hand again like in the Tim Elliot fight?

**Noleafclover** · 10-15-13, 07:02 AM

What if there's an injury would not be my go-to criticism here.

TBH though, I expect to be on Dodson after watching film, the other dude would need to really impress against those cans. He does have mostly finishes though, that's generally a good sign for him.

**Noleafclover** · 10-15-13, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by MD

Dunno about that. I think he's exactly as good as I did three years ago. Maybe even a little bit better. I think he only gets overrated by idiots who see him KOing cans and think he's a beast.

Speaking of expectations coming in to the UFC by the industry/promotion, context being why he's lower on the card than Dodson.

But yeah, there's plenty of idiots out there that think/thought that way, and thankfully there always will be with that type of fighter.

MD · 10-15-13, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

What if there's an injury would not be my go-to criticism here.

TBH though, I expect to be on Dodson after watching film, the other dude would need to really impress against those cans. He does have mostly finishes though, that's generally a good sign for him.

Best guy to beat Dodson is a point-fighting stand up guy. He may be the best counter-wrestler in MMA, certainly one of them.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 10-15-13, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by MD

Best guy to beat Dodson is a point-fighting stand up guy. He may be the best counter-wrestler in MMA, certainly one of them.

I would add with an excellent clinch game. Dodson has unbelievable TDD but he's vulnerable to getting lit up by a good Thai clinch as MM showed. I'm sure Jackson-Winklejohn is working on his clinch but it's not a particular strength of the camp (Jones had a high level clinch game from his G-R wrestling days... the rest of 'em, not so much).

**OracleAdam** · 10-15-13, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by rosietop

I seriously dont know if this guy is a good troll, just new to the game or just stupid.

His bets for Maia vs Shields weren't bad actually only reason he lost was because for some strange reason he decided that Mike Pierce was a "lock" and put down a million units on him. That is horrible betting strategy, you are depending on 1 big favorite to win to have a winning night, even if your other 4 bets win, you lose. Stupid gambling.

Now the Oracle wants to lay $200 against a guy who he hasent seen fight. nice. real nice. What happens if Dodson breaks his hand again like in the Tim Elliot fight?

The $200 is just one unit that it's OK if I lose. I think Dodson's a great all-around fighter that I'm sure is getting better, training with Greg Jackson. He seems to have a lot of passion for fighting. Looking at Montague's record, he hasn't fought any big names yet, and just got a recent split decision win.

Am I a troll? You've seen me post quite a bit, so you know what I'm about.

**Beelzebubzy** · 10-15-13, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by sideloaded

have a medium play for this womens fight but i like a bigger play on xfc this weekend wmma play of course

You are the BOAT
best of all time

**rosietop** · 10-15-13, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by OracleAdam

The $200 is just one unit that it's OK if I lose. I think Dodson's a great all-around fighter that I'm sure is getting better, training with Greg Jackson. He seems to have a lot of passion for fighting. Looking at Montague's record, he hasn't fought any big names yet, and just got a recent split decision win.

Am I a troll? You've seen me post quite a bit, so you know what I'm about.

200$ is 1 unit? wow.. 1 unit is supposed to be 1% of your bankroll.

so how much money did you have on Mike Pierce?

and yeah dude I also agree with the oddsmakers and believe Dodson should be the favorite but you should watch tape on the opponent, and with fights like these (going to decision) you always have to be weary of the judges call. Not saying they are going to mess it up but I personally would never go big on fights like these.

Paddy Power seem to have the odds up for the England Card. Nothing really jumps out so far..

**OracleAdam** · 10-15-13, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by rosietop

200$ is 1 unit? wow.. 1 unit is supposed to be 1% of your bankroll.

so how much money did you have on Mike Pierce?

and yeah dude I also agree with the oddsmakers and believe Dodson should be the favorite but you should watch tape on the opponent, and with fights like these (going to decision) you always have to be weary of the judges call. Not saying they are going to mess it up but I personally would never go big on fights like these.

Paddy Power seem to have the odds up for the England Card. Nothing really jumps out so far..

I didn't realize one unit is supposed to be 1% of your roll. Then I'll have to change that, 1 unit would be about $60 then. I had too much on Pierce, I already stated that was a huge blunder on my part. I've been on a nice tear though recently, that was the only wrong bet I've made out of my last 15.

**Rubber Guard** · 10-15-13, 10:55 AM

Got to like JDS at +190. Not saying he wins, but it is such a good HW contest. Both fighters know each other well. Both are still in prime. Hard not to take that +money in a HW fights of the clear 2 best HWs out there. Or the +250 JDS by KO/TKO.

**Vaughany** · 10-15-13, 10:56 AM

I don't think 1 unit has to be 1% of your bankroll necessarily to be fair

**rosietop** · 10-15-13, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I don't think 1 unit has to be 1% of your bankroll necessarily to be fair

yeah my bad, I think it was supposed to be 1 - 3% of your bankroll.

But anyway, I dont see the need for that approximation why cant we just use the 1% exactly for everyone...

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 10-15-13, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I don't think 1 unit has to be 1% of your bankroll necessarily to be fair

A unit can represent any % of bank roll. However, quite a number of people choose to have it represent 1% of total bank roll.

**rocky16** · 10-15-13, 11:46 AM

Still a lot of dumbfocks here I see.

**sideloaded** · 10-15-13, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by rocky16

Still a lot of dumbfocks here I see.

no one is running them off

**BIGDAY** · 10-15-13, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by rocky16

Still a lot of dumbfocks here I see.