system integrity 2012

[Nick6570]

Ready for some baseball to start

[bauerranch]

Checking in

[knugen]

How many unit did u ended plus last season?

[CrazyCarl]

This is essentially martingale, right?

[floridagolfer]

Does anyone know a place that definitely offers a -1 line? I was told a few weeks ago in a live chat that Bookmaker will, but now that the season is here and lines are posted, I find out that's not right. It has -1.5 and -2.5, but not -1.

[TeamNookMum]

perosnally i play at pinnacle.
if you can't play at pinnacle you can use the run-line calculator. that is a tool (spreadsheet) to give you the amount to bet on -1.5 runline and moneyline to make a -1 bet.

the drawback using the run line calculator is that there are different refund rules for moneyline and run line. if there is a pitching change for example the run line bet is automatically refunded while for moneyline, it still stands.

the books use different rules for refunding moneyline bets when there is pitching change i might add.
can't think of more drawbacks now using the runline calculator but there might be other scenarios that could hurt you.

if you pm me your e-mail address i can mail you the run line calculator.

I'm logged into penny right now. Which menu do I go to to see the -1 lines?

EDIT: nevermind, i see it now

[slapshot]

How many unit did u ended plus last season?

going over last years results with the strategy i am using this year the profit would have been 75 units.
the biggest difference this year compared to last year is leaving september out.

[slapshot]

This is essentially martingale, right?

yes it is.

[slapshot]

Does anyone know a place that definitely offers a -1 line? I was told a few weeks ago in a live chat that Bookmaker will, but now that the season is here and lines are posted, I find out that's not right. It has -1.5 and -2.5, but not -1.

i think some books post their -1 closer to game start....at least that's how 5 dimes do their business....pinnacle have -1 up already.

[Teamprofit101]

system begins tomorrow, right?

isn't today the beginning of the season though?

[knugen]

Yes the system begins tomorrow, the league has already begin with some games last week

[slapshot]

system begins tomorrow, right?

isn't today the beginning of the season though?

we need 3 or more games on the card to make a play.....first game for us tomorrow

[knugen]

Slapshot: i also use pinnacle, they havent all the lines out yet, do u wait til all kines are out before u nake your bet or do you look att scoresandodds.com or some other page and make your bet earlier?

[Maleku]

The lines have been out for 2 days... when is someone going to say that the play is Philly?

[CrazyCarl]

What range of units risked would you be looking at in the most extreme situations?

[slapshot]

first play of the season
philly -1 to win 1

[peacebyinches]

first of all, I really do like concept of the system man, I plan on following this thread for sure.

The methodology seems pretty straightforward, but a quick question:

One nuance of baseball run lines I seem to think a great deal about is the influence that being the home team has in the odds. (the idea of having last at-bats skewing the likelihood of the home team to cover when taking the runs) Since you seem to have a solid collection of data (and a good understanding of the efficacy of your system) how much have you experimented with the largest favorite as a home team at -1 vs. the largest favorite as the road team at -1? Would it possibly make a difference in the system's overall losing/winning streaks, or is this inconsequential?

[slapshot]

What range of units risked would you be looking at in the most extreme situations?

the average odds is -166 or 1.6 decimal for playing the the biggest favorite of the day.
worst case scenario we have seen over the last 6 years is a 5 game losing streak.

with the above criteria in mind....for game six we would risk 10 units roughly following the strategy previously described.

however if we suppose we win game six but lose game seven and eight.

the amount to win for game nine is going to be somewhere around 20-22 units.

we are yet to see a bad scenario like that.

[CrazyCarl]

the average odds is -166 or 1.6 decimal for playing the the biggest favorite of the day.
worst case scenario we have seen over the last 6 years is a 5 game losing streak.

with the above criteria in mind....for game six we would risk 10 units roughly following the strategy previously described.

however if we suppose we win game six but lose game seven and eight.

the amount to win for game nine is going to be somewhere around 20-22 units.

we are yet to see a bad scenario like that.

Thanks, just trying to get a feel for what unit size I would be comfortable with if I do end up following this.

Best of luck.

[slapshot]

first of all, I really do like concept of the system man, I plan on following this thread for sure.

The methodology seems pretty straightforward, but a quick question:

One nuance of baseball run lines I seem to think a great deal about is the influence that being the home team has in the odds. (the idea of having last at-bats skewing the likelihood of the home team to cover when taking the runs) Since you seem to have a solid collection of data (and a good understanding of the efficacy of your system) how much have you experimented with the largest favorite as a home team at -1 vs. the largest favorite as the road team at -1? Would it possibly make a difference in the system's overall losing/winning streaks, or is this inconsequential?

i'm not sure how you would play the system differently when you have a home team -1 coming up or an away team -1 coming up if you're in the middle of a losing streak.

[peacebyinches]

well, I suppose its best to keep it simple and not delve too deeply into factors like that in order to keep the system's methods steady, but I would worry that certain teams are going to be the sole wagers for weeks in a row given the nature of the baseball schedule (like you may be betting on nothing but Philadelphia and New York(Y) for 6 or 7 or 8 games in a row. But hey, maybe that doesn't matter or even helps keep the system going, perhaps?

[slapshot]

well, I suppose its best to keep it simple and not delve too deeply into factors like that in order to keep the system's methods steady, but I would worry that certain teams are going to be the sole wagers for weeks in a row given the nature of the baseball schedule (like you may be betting on nothing but Philadelphia and New York(Y) for 6 or 7 or 8 games in a row. But hey, maybe that doesn't matter or even helps keep the system going, perhaps?

philly 3 days in a row was the longest timeframe last year we bet on the same team. based on the data accumulated betting the same team several days in row is not a threat to the system in terms of streaks.

[analyzer]

Anyone have quick link to the file to compute the spead of a wager between -1.5 and ML to "get" a -1 line?

[slapshot]

Anyone have quick link to the file to compute the spead of a wager between -1.5 and ML to "get" a -1 line?

pm me your e-mail address and i will send it to you.

[analyzer]

Just PM'd you. Thanks!

[DustyDiamond]

are people labbying or chasing straight up

[Teamprofit101]

Slapshot i can't pm.....can you email me at my sbr username at gmail with the run line calculator

[Teamprofit101]

Slapshot i can't pm.....can you email me at my sbr username at gmail with the run line calculator

I will place bet on money line, i don't want to miss out

hopefully i will receive the calculator by the next system play

[slapshot]

I will place bet on money line, i don't want to miss out

hopefully i will receive the calculator by the next system play

you got mail

[Teamprofit101]

Thanks for the calculator.....i will use it on the next bet. Good luck tonight guys!!!

[TeamNookMum]

Push today. Onto the Angels tomorrow

[slapshot]

0-0-1
wins-losses-pushes

friday
laa angels......-1 to win 1 unit....'a' level bet

yesterday
philly -1 to win....'a' level bet**push**

[balls2wall]

Does anyone know a place that definitely offers a -1 line? I was told a few weeks ago in a live chat that Bookmaker will, but now that the season is here and lines are posted, I find out that's not right. It has -1.5 and -2.5, but not -1.

Hey bro, all you have to do is create your own -1 line. It is really easy. Just bet on both the ML and the -1.5 RL.

Make the ML bet in the amount that if it wins it will win the same amount as a what you will lose on the -1.5 line if it loses. That way a win by 1 run of your team will be a push.

Here is an example:

-190 ML fave with the -1.5 RL @ +115

to win $100

risk 88.37 to win 46.51 on the ML

risk 46.51 to win 53.49 on the RL

notice the win ML is the same as the risk RL and the two wins = $100

once you do a few there is nothing to it

[Teamprofit101]

Hey bro, all you have to do is create your own -1 line. It is really easy. Just bet on both the ML and the -1.5 RL.

Make the ML bet in the amount that if it wins it will win the same amount as a what you will lose on the -1.5 line if it loses. That way a win by 1 run of your team will be a push.

Here is an example:

-190 ML fave with the -1.5 RL @ +115

to win $100

risk 88.37 to win 46.51 on the ML

risk 46.51 to win 53.49 on the RL

notice the win ML is the same as the risk RL and the two wins = $100

once you do a few there is nothing to it

So it's sort of like an arb...??

[boroguy14]

Ballstowalls: Thanks for posting the formula since I am in the US and can't find a book that will do -1 runline on a fav and Pinny will not accept US clients. And thanks to Slapshot for posting this system and the plays. Let's get the first W of the season today!