system integrity 2012

[slapshot]

system integrity is back

this is how i will play the system

* pick the biggest favorite of the day, play them -1 run

* minimum of 3 games must be on the schedule for the day

* if the race for the biggest favorite is a tie….pick the game with the highest run total

* pinnacle opening lines are used to select the game

* if a team is posted as the biggest favorite and afterwards there’s pitching change…the play for that day is cancelled

* the system starts on the first day of the season, 5th of april and last play will be august 31st

i will stop at the end of august because 4 years of the 6 years I have data from, september has shown real inconsistent results.

for example last years top team philly lost 6 in a row at home……4 of the 6 was vs lowly washington………..play-off teams are resting player…motivation is questionable etc.

if we have a loss on august 31st…I will play into september and stop immediately after first win in september.

losing streaks
i will deal with losing streaks slightly different compared to last year.

if we have a 3 game losing streak I will split the total up in 4 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 4 game losing streak I will split the total up in 5 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 5 game losing streak I will split the total up in 6 parts and chase each part back at a time.

the system has never had a 6 game losing streak based on the 6 years i have in the database.

we should be able generate in the neighborhood of 70 units....that is excluding september.

i suggest the unitsize to be 1% of your total bankroll and not change it throughout the season.

if you have any questions regarding stats just let me know and I will try answer

feel free to post your own version of the system if you play it differently but the daily updates i will post is based on the above way of playing the system.

[floridagolfer]

Thanks, Slapshot. I don't use Pinnacle, so I'll use the opening line at my book, but I really think this is a minor point; as long as you use the same source for the entire season and don't go changing from day to day, I think the play will be the same 99 percent of the time.

I'll toss out April 1 as the over/under as the date of the first post with an inane question because someone didn't bother to read Post #1.

If I can offer one suggestion before the season starts, it would be to play this as -1 instead of -1.5, which was the premise of the thread as it was started a couple of years ago. All those one-run games are much easier to take as pushes instead of Game B plays. So if you want to look around for a book that offers -1 plays, there's time before Opening Day; in fact, this might be a good time to note those sites that DO offer -1 lines.

[DustyDiamond]

checking in

[Maleku]

I will be running this on 2 labby lines. One for AL and one for NL... scooped 46 units last season between both leagues.

[airattackers]

your system

@ slapshot..can you teach me your system..i am kind of noobish

[soul786]

I will be running this on 2 labby lines. One for AL and one for NL... scooped 46 units last season between both leagues.

How do you handle interleague play?

[Maleku]

How do you handle interleague play?

Interleague is a no play for me. I could set up another labby line for Interleague but I enjoy the break during the year to replenish from the gambling grind.

[slapshot]

@ slapshot..can you teach me your system..i am kind of noobish

read the first post and let me know what's unclear

[slapshot]

How do you handle interleague play?

interleague is business as usual

[soul786]

I'll follow along have never watched a complete game of baseball but if I can make some money betting on it I'm all for it

[analyzer]

Checking in - looking forward to it!

[floridagolfer]

I'll follow along have never watched a complete game of baseball but if I can make some money betting on it I'm all for it

You WILL make money playing this. I'm the same way; I MIGHT watch an entire game when they finally get to the World Series, but until then, those 2,600 games of the regular season serve only one purpose and that's a way to make $$.

[Maleku]

Ran this same system for NHL. It requires patience at times but is rock solid

[csavoia]

I would not mind giving this system a shot

[Dabeergod]

Best of luck this year

[Teamprofit101]

I might try this out, still debating if i should do this or JM system.

[1958]

slapshot,
what was the longest winning streak last year?
rgrds

[slapshot]

slapshot,
what was the longest winning streak last year?
rgrds

last year we had one 5 game losing streak.

[knugen]

So we bet on new teams almost every day in this system, right?

[slapshot]

So we bet on new teams almost every day in this system, right?

one bet a day...one team a day......can be same team two or more days in a row but doesn't have to be.

[Maleku]

Hey Slapshot,

Is there a specific site you use to see the true opening line at Pinnacle?

I am a Pinnacle client but do not see an option to view the opening lines.... only can view current lines.

Thanks.

[slapshot]

Hey Slapshot,

Is there a specific site you use to see the true opening line at Pinnacle?

I am a Pinnacle client but do not see an option to view the opening lines.... only can view current lines.

Thanks.

to get the final call covers line history is used.
to get a quick overview i recommend sbr lines....but then have that confirmed at covers.

[knugen]

one bet a day...one team a day......can be same team two or more days in a row but doesn't have to be.

yes that exactly what i mean, i just wanted to make sure that we not strictly follow the same team for a 3 game chase.

[1958]

last year we had one 5 game losing streak.

sorry to bother you again, I ask what was the longest WINNING streak, not losing streak.

[slapshot]

sorry to bother you again, I ask what was the longest WINNING streak, not losing streak.

sorry......locked in on the negatives
we had two six-game winning streaks
one seven
one eight

[Reno Gambler]

looks interesting. The past few years I've been doing the top 10 home records from previous year chase.

[cubfan2121]

2 Question regarding losing streaks

if we have a 3 game losing streak I will split the total up in 4 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 4 game losing streak I will split the total up in 5 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 5 game losing streak I will split the total up in 6 parts and chase each part back at a time.

1. what do you do if you lose games 1 and 2? margingale or labby line?
2. when do you break up the 3,4,5 game losing streaks? If the 3rd games loses do you break it up then or wait until there is an actual win to break the games up?

thanks
system looks promising

What was the overall winning % of this last year?

[Teamprofit101]

one bet a day...one team a day......can be same team two or more days in a row but doesn't have to be.

thanks for pointing this out....1 game per day shouldn't be to hard to follow.

[TeamNookMum]

Anybody have a list of books that let you play -1 or do all books offer this?

[slapshot]

2 Question regarding losing streaks

if we have a 3 game losing streak I will split the total up in 4 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 4 game losing streak I will split the total up in 5 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 5 game losing streak I will split the total up in 6 parts and chase each part back at a time.

1. what do you do if you lose games 1 and 2? margingale or labby line?
2. when do you break up the 3,4,5 game losing streaks? If the 3rd games loses do you break it up then or wait until there is an actual win to break the games up?

thanks
system looks promising

What was the overall winning % of this last year?

1. martingale
2. this is an example of how the chase is played
suppose we lose 3 games in row....call that total amount x
for game 4 we play (x/4)+1...........(the 1 is for the profit)....call this stake y

if we lose game 4....game 5 will look like this ((x+y)/5)+1

hope that answers the question.
i will post the play of the day and the units to win every day.

the winning percentage last year was 45.7%

last 6 years the winning percentage is 50.7%
losing 31.1%
push 16.8%
rain and pitching change 1.4%

[slapshot]

Anybody have a list of books that let you play -1 or do all books offer this?

perosnally i play at pinnacle.
if you can't play at pinnacle you can use the run-line calculator. that is a tool (spreadsheet) to give you the amount to bet on -1.5 runline and moneyline to make a -1 bet.

the drawback using the run line calculator is that there are different refund rules for moneyline and run line. if there is a pitching change for example the run line bet is automatically refunded while for moneyline, it still stands.

the books use different rules for refunding moneyline bets when there is pitching change i might add.
can't think of more drawbacks now using the runline calculator but there might be other scenarios that could hurt you.

if you pm me your e-mail address i can mail you the run line calculator.

[1958]

last 6 years the winning percentage is 50.7%
losing 31.1%
push 16.8%
rain and pitching change 1.4%

Therefore, the "actuall" winning percentage is 50,7 / (50,7 + 31,1) = 61,98%

In order to win playing straight bets the line should ALWAYS be better that -164.

Is it? Can you please tell me the average odds?

Sorry to bother you again but I also think the other way around (that is to chase the +1 RL).
thanks for the excellent documentation of your betting strategy.

[slapshot]

if you're not playing the system.....the average odds must be -164 to break even..........but that's not how the systems is played....it's a chase.


i wouldn't recommend playing +1....you will have some real nasty losing streaks.

[1958]

i wouldn't recommend playing +1....you will have some real nasty losing streaks.

ok thanks

[dominate.]

checking in