on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[Gndias]

its only a matter of time till phillie kills this one

[oklahoma]

Im hoping Philly pulls through like our last series when they pulled ahead with a killer inning. Right now they cant buy a run though

[SlickRick1382]

Just like I said.

Just a matter of time. Granted the pitch in the dirt helped us but that's baseball.

Hopefully we can hold off for 6 outs and win both C Bets ....

[darkmatter117]

2006 combined numbers are done.

Unfiltered, ML only (212-7)
A bets: 146-72 (67%)
B bets: 42-31 (58.3%)
C bets: 24-7 (77.4%)

Filtered, ML only (138-4)
A bets: 93-49 (65.5%)
B bets: 27-22 (55.1%)
C bets: 18-4 (81.8%)

Unfiltered, R/L on B and C bets (205-14)
A bets: 146-72 (67%)
B bets: 31-42 (42.5%)
C bets: 28-14 (66.7%)

Filtered, R/L on B and C bets (133-9)
A bets: 93-49 (65.5%)
B bets: 21-28 (42.9%)
C bets: 19-9 (67.9%)

Unfiltered, R/L on B bets and ML on C bets (210-9)
A bets: 146-72 (67%)
B bets: 31-42 (42.5%)
C bets: 33-9 (78.6%)

Filtered, R/L on B bets and ML on C bets (137-5)
A bets: 93-49 (65.5%)
B bets: 21-28 (42.9%)
C bets: 23-5 (82.1%)

[Nino7]

8-2

[BSUWADDY]

Finally!

[thelimit0310]

Thanks Darkmatter, I've been working on a different betting strategy for this system and your numbers have helped cut down on my workload. Keep it coming if you can! And again thanks for your work!

[on3]

40% of B bets winning on the RL, unless the RL has +150 odds, its not worth it considering the trade off. now the C bet RL with a 65+% winning percentage:

[darkmatter117]

The NL numbers weren't what I had hoped. Taking the R/L on B and C bets instead of the ML would double the number of losses you'd have, even though it would save you around 45% of your units per loss (feel free to check that). However, taking the R/L on B bets and ML on C bets would add only two series losses while saving you about 22% of your units per series loss. This is based on a +100 R/L vs. -175 ML. Considering that some of these games could have -200 MLs, you would save four units per series loss by betting the R/L on B bets and ML on C bets.

I'm going to look at some of the more recent seasons to see if this would significantly improve profits. I'm also going to review the series losses and see if I can find any trends. Maybe the series losses were to division opponents, after playing a division opponent, after long road trips, etc. At first glance I don't see much except that three of the unfiltered, ML only losses came in June -- though two of those were by Arizona.

Let me know if you guys have any ideas for things I should look out for.

[on3]

for future testing, the most bang for your buck would be ML on the B bet and RL on the C bet. if those number look like 60+%, then you are definitely on to something very, very profitable.

i would imagine the system to then include a C bet filter where we play a C bet on the ML and have another single filtered labby line for C bet RLs.

[on3]

unfortunately, the C bet ML losses have nothing out of the ordinary with the winners. by adding a filter to exclude the losses, you would also exclude many, many winners.

[darkmatter117]

40% of B bets winning on the RL, unless the RL has +150 odds, its not worth it considering the trade off. now the C bet RL with a 65+% winning percentage:

That's a great point. Unfiltered, ML on A and B bets and R/L on C bets would only add one loss. That's a record of 23-8 (74.2%) for C bets. In other words, if you're going to win the C game on the ML, you're very often going to cover the R/L as well. Just look at the results from our two C bets today.

EDIT: The one C game that would flip to a loss if you bet R/L was a filtered play.

EDIT AGAIN: I had my numbers wrong -- forgot to add the loss.

[SlickRick1382]

Thanks Darkmatter, I've been working on a different betting strategy for this system and your numbers have helped cut down on my workload. Keep it coming if you can! And again thanks for your work!

Hopefully you don't mind sharing the strategy

[on3]

good wins. time to keep it moving. C bet had only 4 units risked. martingale players would have been risking 8 units on their C bet.

System record 15-0-0; 4-0-0
Units +10.5
1 unit = $20

4/16

#16 -- pending

Game 1 win = 9-6; 3-1
Game 2 win = 4-2; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

21-22-22-22
x-x-34-36
x-x-x-x

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

[darkmatter117]

For the 2006 numbers, 4/7 losses came after a series against a division opponent. One was to another division opponent (Padres swept by Rockies after playing Giants). The Padres' series was also their first three-game series of the season. Detroit was swept in their last series of the season -- they made the playoffs that year so they likely had little to play for. The Dbacks were the only team that was swept by an opponent from the opposing league.

Tentative takeaway points: Be wary of teams coming off a series against a division opponent. Be wary of teams that have clinched the playoffs and are playing in their last series (or last few series) of the regular season.

[The HOFF]

Potential A Bets for tomorrow:

APRIL 16
Yankees vs Twins
White Sox vs Orioles
Royals vs Tigers
Angels vs Athletics
Braves vs Mets
Nationals vs Astros
D-Backs vs Pirates
Rockies vs Padres
Giants vs Phillies

[therizz]

For the 2006 numbers, 4/7 losses came after a series against a division opponent. One was to another division opponent (Padres swept by Rockies after playing Giants). The Padres' series was also their first three-game series of the season. Detroit was swept in their last series of the season -- they made the playoffs that year so they likely had little to play for. The Dbacks were the only team that was swept by an opponent from the opposing league.

Tentative takeaway points: Be wary of teams coming off a series against a division opponent. Be wary of teams that have clinched the playoffs and are playing in their last series (or last few series) of the regular season.

DM,
My backtesting numbers always shut it down 1st or second week of september. I did run numbers for chasing all series on the RL, but did not do a game by game breakdown. Great work with that, especially for the c-bets!

[oklahoma]

Well they didnt make it easy on us, but at this point who cares. Looks like 4 series tomorrow.

[Douchebag50]

Potential A Bets for tomorrow:

APRIL 16
Yankees vs Twins
White Sox vs Orioles
Royals vs Tigers
Angels vs Athletics
Braves vs Mets
Nationals vs Astros
D-Backs vs Pirates
Rockies vs Padres
Giants vs Phillies

There's only 3 confirmed plays...check the lines for changes...
Nationals (-265)
LAA (-210)
Braves (-170)
possibly: Col (-135) CWS (-130) ARZ (-140) and NYY (no line yet)

[J.M. Disciple]

Even a broken clock is right at least two times a day. Seattle was not the 2nd strongest play on the board.

Seems like my broken clock is right more often then not.

Cash Bos
Cash Tex
Cash LAD
Cash Phi
Cash Tor

Cash Atari!

6-0

[eric14tsui]

2 huge wins tonight. Good luck tmr, guys.

[J.M. Disciple]

There's only 3 confirmed plays...check the lines for changes...
Nationals (-265)
LAA (-210)
Braves (-170)
possibly: Col (-135) CWS (-130) ARZ (-140) and NYY (no line yet)

Going to wait for the option at -1 for these three teams and may consider a parlay. The juice on Washington is ridiculous right now. The -1 line probably like -190 or so as well. I just do not like taking the RL.

Also Realize that LAA is a late game, so you could adjust your lines before LAA starts theirs.

[dlunc3]

Seems like my broken clock is right more often then not.

Cash Bos
Cash Tex
Cash LAD
Cash Phi
Cash Tor

Cash Atari!

6-0

[CrazyCarl]

Going to wait for the option at -1 for these three teams and may consider a parlay. The juice on Washington is ridiculous right now. The -1 line probably like -190 or so as well. I just do not like taking the RL.

Also Realize that LAA is a late game, so you could adjust your lines before LAA starts theirs.

-1 runline not looking too bad at -179 on 5dimes.

[nitsuj378]

For the 2006 numbers, 4/7 losses came after a series against a division opponent. One was to another division opponent (Padres swept by Rockies after playing Giants). The Padres' series was also their first three-game series of the season. Detroit was swept in their last series of the season -- they made the playoffs that year so they likely had little to play for. The Dbacks were the only team that was swept by an opponent from the opposing league.

Tentative takeaway points: Be wary of teams coming off a series against a division opponent. Be wary of teams that have clinched the playoffs and are playing in their last series (or last few series) of the regular season.

I would steer clear of making assumptions on such a small sample size. I'm not trying to deter you or anything, but more testing would definately be needed to confirm those relationships. I am all about finding new ways to make improve a system or betting method and it is really tough to backtest all that data. Regardless, continue what you are doing and I hope you are able to find something that will yield positive results.

[CrazyCarl]

I would steer clear of making assumptions on such a small sample size. I'm not trying to deter you or anything, but more testing would definately be needed to confirm those relationships. I am all about finding new ways to make improve a system or betting method and it is really tough to backtest all that data. Regardless, continue what you are doing and I hope you are able to find something that will yield positive results.

In his defense, he said "tentative".

[nitsuj378]

In his defense, he said "tentative".

Very true. Just offering some advice is all.

[nick86]

do yo thang on3 do yo thang...

[DustyDiamond]

There's only 3 confirmed plays...check the lines for changes...
Nationals (-265)
LAA (-210)
Braves (-170)
possibly: Col (-135) CWS (-130) ARZ (-140) and NYY (no line yet)

I think this system needs an opening of -145 and higher? If so Col, CWS, ARZ don't meet the specs.

[darkmatter117]

I completely agree, nitsuj. I was just searching for any possible trends to follow up on later. I think the division opponents thing is probably nothing, but it might not be a bad idea to shut it down after August. Although there was only one series loss in September, eight series went to game C (i.e., nearly 26% of all game Cs were played in September). I don't have time to do the percentages right now, but I think that's higher than in any other month.

[CrazyCarl]

I thought most systems shut down baseball at the end of August already.

[soul786]

Just looked over the plays for today, filtered ones that is. Yankees open their series wit the Twins tonight. Line's sitting o/u 9.5 w/ ML at -178.

This is the filtered play today looks like. Confirmation from anyone?

[SlickRick1382]

Seems like my broken clock is right more often then not.

Cash Bos
Cash Tex
Cash LAD
Cash Phi
Cash Tor

6-0

5-0 in MLB

Two of them were C Bets anyway and some heavy favorites (Dodgers and Texas, both of whom barely won to begin with).... You're so good bro. Sorry I ever doubted you ...

[darkmatter117]

I thought most systems shut down baseball at the end of August already.

I ran my 2006 backtest through the season. I'll post the basic unfiltered numbers stopping at the end of August in a few hours. I'm also planning to start running 2007 tonight.

BOL tonight, fellas.

[volkmannthad]

Waiting for all the bets today! keep it rolling!