LTA's MLB Plays

[daddyv]

damnit!!! missed this play...missed last nights dodgers game as well!!!!

[XGamer]

damnit!!! missed this play...missed last nights dodgers game as well!!!!

Me 2, hate the feeling of missing the winning plays!

[mikea33]

Me 2, hate the feeling of missing the winning plays!

Works both ways. I missed detroit yesterday, but missed the early white sox under this morning....missed that last play but it does work both ways, sometimes ull be shaking ur head u missed a play

[Redscot]

Btw any thoughts on Pittsburgh (Bedard) vs Dodgers (Billingley)? It was one of the first that popped to me. Bedard has better advanced numbers and has the unfamiliarity angle going

Bedard was quietly very good last year, I agree. He has adapted and become a more crafty pitcher post injuries. Game is down to +124 at Pinny, and opened at +150, so obviously others agree with you. It is tempting, he was a better pitcher than Billingsley last year. Pirate lineup been so good awful thus far, kinda hard to back them. GL if you grab it.

[Redscot]

I understand the basic rules of baseball, not more. Shouldn't the Tigers put Valverde in the mound at the start of the 9th inning to close the game? They only had a 2 run lead, why keep a pitcher (Verlander) that was already over 100 pitches? Is it a common decision?

Verlander had a 1 hitter going into the 9th I believe and is the reigning Cy Young winner and AL MVP, he gets that respect. In fact, most pitchers would in that situation unless they were way over their pitch count, they gave Verlander a longer rope than most though because of his accomplishments/stature.

[Love The Action]

Bedard was quietly very good last year, I agree. He has adapted and become a more crafty pitcher post injuries. Game is down to +124 at Pinny, and opened at +150, so obviously others agree with you. It is tempting, he was a better pitcher than Billingsley last year. Pirate lineup been so good awful thus far, kinda hard to back them. GL if you grab it.

I Lean under.....

[Redscot]

I Lean under.....

I do too. BTW nice start to the day bro . At least the WSox game wasn't a nail biter, better to lose games like that than have a closer implosion!

[mikea33]

Lta card final or you eyeing a couple more????

I really hope you ride out the MLB season....................because it looks like we have a wonderful one ahead of us.
Thanks for all you do kind friend

[Les_Nuts]

Anyone got an opinion on the total in Houston? Seems a bit high to me, liking the under

[mikea33]

I agree lesnuts.......wandy is solid and those teams arent the most powerful lineups

[apurvaas]

Posey scratched for SF, Sanchez will C and went 2-5 their last game

[guil0000]

I know it's probably a little early for this but are there any scoops on Bass For the Padres going tomorrow. Kennedy is at a short -125, I know Arizona hits Lefties better than righties but -125 for Kennedy in a ballpark that doesn't allow lots of homeruns (IMO it's his biggest flaw, the GB ratio). Seems short by a lot?

[Redscot]

He could settle, as aces do, but Halladay is not looking sharp at all, doesn't seem right atm. If I had live bet options I would be seeing what I could get for Miami..............

****edit**** Marlins pushed one across when I went to computer and typed this up, not sure if there will be value at this juncture.

Halladay is definitely laboring at this juncture though, FB is sitting at 89 and his pinpoint control is off. As always, aces often find ways of settling in......

[Love The Action]

He could settle, as aces do, but Halladay is not looking sharp at all, doesn't seem right atm. If I had live bet options I would be seeing what I could get for Miami..............

****edit**** Marlins pushed one across when I went to computer and typed this up, not sure if there will be value at this juncture.

Halladay is definitely laboring at this juncture though, FB is sitting at 89 and his pinpoint control is off. As always, aces often find ways of settling in......

The control issues worry me, but the 89 mph fastball does not concern me. I read that he is going to mixing up his fastballs more this year between the 2 seamer, 4 seamer and way more cutters than ever before. I just hope both guys can get it together and keep it going.

[Redscot]

The control issues worry me, but the 89 mph fastball does not concern me. I read that he is going to mixing up his fastballs more this year between the 2 seamer, 4 seamer and way more cutters than ever before. I just hope both guys can get it together and keep it going.

60ish pitches through 3 innings and he got away with some pitches that should have been hit hard, rare to see him over the middle of the plate. That being said, he is starting to get a rhythm and that bodes well. BTW, local up this afternoon, so on the NBA plays, this under and the Giants.....let's do this..........

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/11/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Tigers under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

While I do expect a regression for Shields, he is much better than he displayed against the Yankees. For the season, I think we can expect a season similar to what he had in 2008 with a 3.5 ERA and 3.7ish SIERA. For this game, I think he pitches well and bounces back from that Yankee outing. Verlander is pretty much on autopilot already so there's no reason not to expect a solid performances. The wind should not be a factor but the weather will be cold and wet, which is just how we like it for the under. The ump is Blaser who is relatively new, but I see nothing in his past that overly concerns me. I have this play set exactly at 6 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us so I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #2

Giants ML (-118) 1x (Locked)

I suppose this is a "square" play, but just like I expect Shields to bounce back I also expect a better performance from Timmy than we saw opening day. As much as I am also backing Timmy, there's never a bad opportunity to fade Guthrie, especially with SF's offense emerging. Most books opened around -130 but saw early Rocky money. To be honest, I just don't see it and I will back the better pitcher with value. I have SF set at -125 giving us 7 cents of value in this game and I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox/Indians under (7) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Marlins/Phillies under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups. Good luck.

Play #5

Nationals/Mets under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Play #6

Brewers/Cubs under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Just out of a meeting and able to post now. Good luck if you can still get on it.

Play #7

Pirates/Dodgers under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have a feeling this one drops below -110 soon and closes with heavy juice on the under so I'm locking it up now. Winters in the ump and he generally has a high strike rate over 62.5% and ends up pretty even as far as O/U records go. I have always had an affinity for Bedard and expect a big season out of him this year now that he's pitching in a weak hitting division of the NL. I also expect improvement from Billingsley and I will back him again on the under after pushing last week in the game between Billinsley and Luebke of SD because of a meaningless 9th inning run. In this game, I think we see both pitchers go into the 7th with better than quality starts. Neither lineup is at its strongest on this getaway day and I expect this afternoon's under trend to roll right into tonight. I have this game set at 5.5 giving us a full run of value and requiring a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Tough luck right now for Johnson. Had Victorino nailed on SB and called safe....then a comebacker bounces off his glove and runner scores from 2nd! Now an error in the outfield.....hopefully he can weather this storm, has been pitching pretty well......wow, the little things in baseball...

Grabbing that under with you bro and heading out for the night. Bol.

[TC Woods]

Lincecum - current line

2.1 IP, 76 pitches, 6 runs, 8 hits..... WOW

[JM92]

I don't understand shit about baseball but look at us getting back on that Giants ML play!

[Les_Nuts]

Wow. What is up with the giants this year. They went 6 0 up against the dbacks a few days ago and ended up losing 7 6 or something and now they come from 6 down to go up in one innings, then give up another 3 runs after that. They are streaky as hell!

[mikea33]

Not saying there out of this game......I just have a gut feeling that the Giants are going to be the Jazz of our MLB season

[apurvaas]

Giants trailing by 9 lol... What a high scoring game.. Col 16, sf 7 bot 6th

[mikea33]

San fran looks disgusting..........there#1 getting shelled......then there bullpen gets annihilated.............epic fail

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/11/2012 Recap

4 - 3 = +0.72x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

13 - 11 = +2.02x

Typical grinder day...good luck on Thursday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/12/2012

Play #1

Reds/Nationals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop in price as the morning progresses so im locking this one up now at -110. The reds have not seen much of Gio and that "unfamiliarity" gives him the edge. I am a big Latos guy and he needs a bounceback performance. The reds bats are not as sharp now as they will be later in the season which gives us some value on this play. I have this game set at 6.45 giving us just over a run of value. It would take a final score of 8 to beat us and I dont think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[mikea33]

Thanks a bunch LTA.
Shoul we expect a bunch of plays todat?

[mikea33]

Any other early plays today? I

[Redscot]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/12/2012

Play #1

Reds/Nationals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop in price as the morning progresses so im locking this one up now at -110. The reds have not seen much of Gio and that "unfamiliarity" gives him the edge. I am a big Latos guy and he needs a bounceback performance. The reds bats are not as sharp now as they will be later in the season which gives us some value on this play. I have this game set at 6.45 giving us just over a run of value. It would take a final score of 8 to beat us and I dont think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Did this really open at 8.5?! Wow!

On another note, guess Halladay shut me up eh? He was uncharacteristically off in the 1st 3 innings, but you were right about the velocity, seems he has just about abandoned his straight FB for the moving cutter? type that sits around 89. I think Johnson is ok, he has had some bad luck early in the season, but, he isn't throwing his slider and his swinging strikes numbers are definitely a red flag atm, albeit in a very small sample size.

Doesn't look like much wind in Chi-town, what you think Greinke/Garza opens at......think there is any chance we see 7 in that one?

Vargas/Holland at 9.5? That's a bit of an eye catcher. Texas lineup has had good success against him in the past though...

Looking forward to another day on the grind bro. BOL

[Love The Action]

Did this really open at 8.5?! Wow!

On another note, guess Halladay shut me up eh? He was uncharacteristically off in the 1st 3 innings, but you were right about the velocity, seems he has just about abandoned his straight FB for the moving cutter? type that sits around 89. I think Johnson is ok, he has had some bad luck early in the season, but, he isn't throwing his slider and his swinging strikes numbers are definitely a red flag atm, albeit in a very small sample size.

Doesn't look like much wind in Chi-town, what you think Greinke/Garza opens at......think there is any chance we see 7 in that one?

Vargas/Holland at 9.5? That's a bit of an eye catcher. Texas lineup has had good success against him in the past though...

Looking forward to another day on the grind bro. BOL

Pinny had 8 briefly at the open, but only bm/cris had 8.5. Plus, I think that could have been an error or something because I would go 4x if I could get 8.5 and I know others would go heavy as well.

Definitely eyeing the cubs total....

Hey, what are your thoughts on lirianothis year? Is he back to form? Haren should bounceback, so can we trust liriano?

Good luck today buddy.

[Les_Nuts]

I can get 8.5 at -130, just put on 1.5x

[Redscot]

Pinny had 8 briefly at the open, but only bm/cris had 8.5. Plus, I think that could have been an error or something because I would go 4x if I could get 8.5 and I know others would go heavy as well.

Definitely eyeing the cubs total....

Hey, what are your thoughts on lirianothis year? Is he back to form? Haren should bounceback, so can we trust liriano?

Good luck today buddy.

Dan Haren is every bit as Good as Weaver, and if you go off advanced stats, better. Compare there last 4 years siera and xfip. Weaver is just sexier or something , Haren plays 2nd fiddle.

Liriano got into a really good groove down here in Winter ball, pounding the strike zone, and carried it over into spring training. I am cautiously bullish on him returning to form this year...4.36 era is where my numbers put him for the year....but he is a true enigma...at the rate he gets swinging strikes he is always just a step away from being dominant.

[Redscot]

Det: Carlson -------------home team won 61% over 180 game sample
Chi: Culbreth
Min: Hallion ***************correction, Reyburn
Tex: Eddings ------------very generous strike zone
Col: Kulpa
Phi: Nelson
SD: Foster
LA: Bell -----------------home team won 65% over 217 game sample

On another note, Capuano should be more than serviceable this year, especially at home.

[Madison]

Thx for the umpire tidbits Red! Much appreciated.

[kcburg]

Like the Red's under...also Col over 9.5.

[mikea33]

Lta i watch a lot of liriano.
He is so inconsistent.....capable of a lights out night or a trainwreck....im sure there rcorrelations between who he faces and the statline. Im on my phone so i cant look into it. He lookedhorrible in his first outing ..... Haren is an ace IMO