LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

GL on the plays today my man , I'll be riding along with ya, like the card. Got a lotto ticket today as well . I really just look for highest value on these lotto tickets, sometimes I am playing the other side on teams involved. 4 of the 5 games I see as high scoring affairs, better chance of a 2 run victory. Only low scoring game is S.D., but they have been hot and are honoring Hoffman today, should be a good crowd. All teams involved are Home teams on a Sunday, usually supportive crowd days. So here it is, btw, these parlays I play from my Peso account, I ain't big time nor stupid enough to spend $100 on a lotto ticket. So root me on! 136/1 odds:

5Parlay

992 AT Colorado Rockies
-1½ +175

8/21/2011 3:10:00 PM 994 AT San Diego Padres
-1½ +180

8/21/2011 4:05:00 PM 998 AT Detroit Tigers
-1½ +175

8/21/2011 1:05:00 PM 1008 AT Los Angeles Angels
-1½ +140

8/21/2011 3:35:00 PM 1010 AT Oakland Athletics
-1½ +170

8/21/2011 4:05:00 PM 100/13621 # 54841

[JR007]

My opinion, totals will be the play, in the playoffs, (unders).....you will see superior pitching then , I remember last year some 5.5 cashed, under

[Love The Action]

GL on the plays today my man , I'll be riding along with ya, like the card. Got a lotto ticket today as well . I really just look for highest value on these lotto tickets, sometimes I am playing the other side on teams involved. 4 of the 5 games I see as high scoring affairs, better chance of a 2 run victory. Only low scoring game is S.D., but they have been hot and are honoring Hoffman today, should be a good crowd. All teams involved are Home teams on a Sunday, usually supportive crowd days. So here it is, btw, these parlays I play from my Peso account, I ain't big time nor stupid enough to spend $100 on a lotto ticket. So root me on! 136/1 odds:

5Parlay

992 AT Colorado Rockies
-1½ +175

8/21/2011 3:10:00 PM 994 AT San Diego Padres
-1½ +180

8/21/2011 4:05:00 PM 998 AT Detroit Tigers
-1½ +175

8/21/2011 1:05:00 PM 1008 AT Los Angeles Angels
-1½ +140

8/21/2011 3:35:00 PM 1010 AT Oakland Athletics
-1½ +170

8/21/2011 4:05:00 PM 100/13621 # 54841

Good luck...I will be rooting for you

Last year, my buddy hit a $500 5-teamer and walked away with over $20K. I still think that was not a smart play for a $100 a game guy, but you can't argue with the results. Parlays are just not my thing...I prefer to grind it out over the long haul.

[Love The Action]

My opinion, totals will be the play, in the playoffs, (unders).....you will see superior pitching then , I remember last year some 5.5 cashed, under

I couldn't agree more. I will have some of my biggest plays of the season over these last two months of the season on unders. I look forward to it...

[man_of_steel]

Trust me LTA there isn't any real logic behind my plays jus a gut feeling. Trust me 80% of my plays come from you. But I'm on Oakland/Toronto under 8.5 and fla/ san Diego over 6.5

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/21/11

Play #1

AZ/Atl under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I fully expect this total to drop to 7 by Sunday morning, so I have to lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and it's going to take a total of 8 to lose and I don't see that happening. First and foremost, we have Hudson going for Atlanta and he has been lights out lately. He's not having one of his best seasons, but it's hard to live up to such lofty standards that he has set for himself. To me, the guy is still an all-star caliber SP. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are solid in the mid 3's. However, he makes his living as a ground ball pitcher first and foremost and that's where he excels with a GB/FB over 2.1. On the other side, we have a surprising name this year in Josh Collmenter. However, he's been very solid and dependable except for a couple of rough back to back starts a few weeks ago. Since then, however, he's been very good limiting the Phillies to 2 earned runs over 6.2 innings and the same against Houston over 7 innings. Most telling is Collmenter's WAR of 2 as that surprised me a bit and shows his value when compared to Hudson who is at 2.7. That's not that much difference and gives me the confidence to back Collmenter here. Both Hudson and Collmenter have pitched well against the opposing lineups. Collmenter faced the Braves earlier in the year and held them to 2 hits and no earned runs. Hudson, on the other hand, has held AZ in check by limiting them to a .205 BAA and OBP under 4.6. With Hoye as the ump and his being one of the best historic under umps over the last five years or so, in addition to his 63% strike rate, I think we have enough to take the heavy juice on the under before the total drops and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Toronto/Oakland over (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think we see some movement on this on up to 9. I have it set at 9.4 so I think we have some definite value on the over here. In addition, we are continuing our over plays where Moscoso is involved. Despite some relatively decent performances, his advanced stats just scream that this guy is garbage and is getting by on smoke and mirrors. He doesn't really do anything well. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA area all in the high 4's or low 5's. His K% is under 13% and his GB/FB is at .5. With a BABIP pretty low around .230, he has been getting lucky to do as crappy as he has. Therefore, he could be due for a regression to perform even worse. The Blue Jays just faced Moscoso and he only gave up 1 run through 6 innings (game still went way over and we cashed that one). I think the Blue Jays now know what to expect and will tee this guy up. On the other side, the Blue Jays will be going with Luis Perez. He has been a solid reliever, but his arm is not stretched out and he won't get past the 5th inning. Between Moscos and the Blue Jays having to pick up the slack, I think this one sails over the posted total. The ump doesn't really lean over or under, but he has a more under friendly strike rate at 63%, however, I don't think that will matter too much on Sunday. I expect a lot of runs and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Orioles/Angels over (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Matusz has struggled all year and the Angles have been raking aginst lefties all year, but especially of late. They remain in the top half of the league in seasonal OBP versus lefties and I expect them to rock Matusz today. Jerome Williams is making his first start in the majors since 2007 and he wasn't exactly the most successful back then. Although, I would argue this is a newly committed guy who turned his career around, I still think he gives up at least 4 today. I won't go through all the numbers, but Matusz has gotten rocked all year and I don't expect miracles out of Williams. This is a good opportunity for both offenses to rack up the numbers. The ump is Danley with his slight over lean throughout his career, with a consistent strike rate around 62% and runs/per/gm average above 9. I have this one at 10, so I will roll with the over here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Florida/SD under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make this at least a 2x play at 6.5. However, when I got home from dinner last night, the total already dropped to 6 and does not look to be going back up so I will take it now at plus odds. I have this one at 5.3 and have to roll with the under here. Sanchez has dominate stuff and his advanced stats are really impressive with a WAR of 2.9, K% over 24%, FIP of 3.4, xFIP of 3.1, tERA of of 3.7 and most impressively a SIERA of 3.01. The guy also has a solid GB/FB ration of 1.3. On the other side, Luebke has impressed and his numbers back that up and even surpass Sanchez in a smaller sample size, however, a WAR of 2, K% of 27%, FIP of 2.6, xFIP of 3.1, tERA of 2.5 and SIERA of 2.7 are really, really good. Luebke's BABIP is pretty low, which shows he's gotten some luck and Sanchez is the opposite, especially on the road where I expect Sanchez to catch some breaks moving forward. The ump is Bellino who is a third year guy that always has a slight under lean with a strike rate of 63% throughout his career. I love this play and wish I could have gotten it at 6.5. As it is, I may add units before gametime. For right now, I will roll with the under for 1x at plus odds. Good luck.

Added 1x for total of 2x Play #4 Florida/SD under (6)(+100) (Locked)

The line movement supports this play and I want to lock it in at plus odds. I really, really wish I had gotten it at 6.5, but I'm going to risk the push and roll with it at 6 for 2x. My model has it 5.3, and I think we see 3-1 type game. The public is pounding the over, yet it continues to drop. I really like the under here.

[Redscot]

You made a keen observation regarding Shields pitch count. Interesting enough in his previous 3 games it was the highest 3 game pitch count he has had all season. After the 2nd highest 3 game stretch he faced Seattle June 2nd, giving up 7 er's in 4 innings.

[Love The Action]

You made a keen observation regarding Shields pitch count. Interesting enough in his previous 3 games it was the highest 3 game pitch count he has had all season. After the 2nd highest 3 game stretch he faced Seattle June 2nd, giving up 7 er's in 4 innings.

Yeah...it's hard to take the over with those two pitchers going, but I couldn't take the under either based on Shields recent pitch counts and Pineda's slow decline.

Hey, how strongly do you feel about the Rockies today. I noticed you played them in your parlay, but I really like the Dodgers today. I probably won't play them because of Billingsley's poor history against that lineup, but I really think the Dodgers win in a game that stays under the posted total.

Why did you like the Rox?

[No coincidences]

Yeah...it's hard to take the over with those two pitchers going, but I couldn't take the under either based on Shields recent pitch counts and Pineda's slow decline.

Hey, how strongly do you feel about the Rockies today. I noticed you played them in your parlay, but I really like the Dodgers today. I probably won't play them because of Billingsley's poor history against that lineup, but I really think the Dodgers win in a game that stays under the posted total.

Why did you like the Rox?

Not to butt in, but I don't like the under based on this LTA:

08/21 07:41 AM10 -11010 +100
08/21 03:37 AM9½ -1299½ +117

Typically, if a line moves a half run without any juice involved, it's good to run with the momentum of the line.

[Redscot]

Yeah...it's hard to take the over with those two pitchers going, but I couldn't take the under either based on Shields recent pitch counts and Pineda's slow decline.

Hey, how strongly do you feel about the Rockies today. I noticed you played them in your parlay, but I really like the Dodgers today. I probably won't play them because of Billingsley's poor history against that lineup, but I really think the Dodgers win in a game that stays under the posted total.

Why did you like the Rox?

I liked the +175 in a game that could get out of hand runs wise.

Like I said earlier my parlays are just calculated risks looking for the biggest return, not necessarily my plays. Parlays are losing bets, so when I play one it is shooting for a big haul.

GL bud, added on to the SD under as well here.

[Love The Action]

Not to butt in, but I don't like the under based on this LTA:

08/21 07:41 AM10 -11010 +100
08/21 03:37 AM9½ -1299½ +117

Typically, if a line moves a half run without any juice involved, it's good to run with the momentum of the line.

Thanks NC...always appreciate your input.

I'm not playing either the Dodgers or the under, my card is final at the four plays. But I was interested in hearing some factors in support of the Rockies.

I get the line movement, but I wast thinking more about "baseball" factors. Redscot is great at breaking down player matchups and was wondering why he liked the Rockies.

Are you playing that game? I do lean Dodgers and under, but will pass. Good luck in whatever you choose

[Love The Action]

I liked the +175 in a game that could get out of hand runs wise.

Like I said earlier my parlays are just calculated risks looking for the biggest return, not necessarily my plays. Parlays are losing bets, so when I play one it is shooting for a big haul.

GL bud, added on to the SD under as well here.

I see...thanks.

Let's get that SD under...I really like it, even at 6

[No coincidences]

Thanks NC...always appreciate your input.

I'm not playing either the Dodgers or the under, my card is final at the four plays. But I was interested in hearing some factors in support of the Rockies.

I get the line movement, but I wast thinking more about "baseball" factors. Redscot is great at breaking down player matchups and was wondering why he liked the Rockies.

Are you playing that game? I do lean Dodgers and under, but will pass. Good luck in whatever you choose

I lean over, but doubt I'll play it. Bullpens should be shot from yesterday.

As for the side, who knows. Flip a coin. Both pitchers can be gascans.

[Redscot]

Oh, on another note LTA, my local stopped posting the overnight lines this weekend. He used to post them and then come into work at 11 am to update them. Well since I have been following your thread bud, I have been beating the movement like it owes me money!

Really hope it is just a coincidence, and he goes back to posting night before.

Mota in for SF already....yikes, shit could get ugly there today. Got Hou for +1 R/L small. Break up the 'Stros!

[gtboy]

good job LTA. I tailed the ATL Under. my only mlb play of the day. Thanks man.

[Love The Action]

good job LTA. I tailed the ATL Under. my only mlb play of the day. Thanks man.

[Love The Action]

Padre game delayed because of Hoffman ceremony...

[BiffTFinancial]

Just got back from a walk with wife, baby and dog and saw the Padres game is delayed. Is that because of the Hoffman festivities? I don't see any rain...

yes, Hoffman festivities, no bad weather that i know of. weather forecast was 0% chance of precipitation.

[Love The Action]

yes, Hoffman festivities, no bad weather that i know of.

Thanks...I just confirmed that as well.

[Ca$hfloW]

I cashed the under Atlanta game and am on the padres game as well as no score 1st inning. Let's get it

[Love The Action]

At first glace, that Detroit/TB game tomorrow looks like a possible big play on the under. However, if you look at Niemann's recent innings and pitch counts, they are off the charts. He has thrown 100 or more pitches in 6 of his last 7 starts and 5 of those last 7 have been over 114 pitches. He has never come close to those numbers in his entire career and really concerns me as to whether he is tired.

I still may play this, but with Detroit's offense, I'm not sure I can play it for more than 1x...

[Love The Action]

Alright, I'm out to dinner for the rest of the night. I should have a few plays for tomorrow posted later tonight. Good luck on everyone's plays today

[alamo]

Perez on course for a perfect game for Toronto in Oakland ! Anyone watching ?

[freshguy222]

homerun with 2 outs to send it to overtime! unbelievable what kind of bad beats you get! also had cleveland^^and angels over and pirates

[alamo]

Any plays for late games LTA ?

[pacocn]

Lta, not even hells bells by ac dc could
inspire Heath bell to get 4 outs.

[BiffTFinancial]

Lta, not even hells bells by ac dc could inspire Heath bell to get 4 outs.

[Love The Action]

Wow, I left the restaurant after dinner and all we needed was three outs. I check my phone and saw that Bell got the first two outs...park the car and come inside expecting a hard-earned +1.5x day, only to find Bell fuked me once again. Just another last inning loss bullpen meltdown that has cost us a fortune over the last couple week (Bell has screwed us out of over 5x on his own). My apologies to anyone that tailed...I have never experienced such an unlucky run with these bullpen collapses. What did I do to deserve this

Going to forget about it though because it's just baseball and there's no sense in bitching about it. I would just like to win a few on the last at-bat. I have not had any of those, so it would be nice for these bad breaks to even out a little bit...

No play in the late game. I would expect the Cards to win, but there's no value in the Cards over -135 and it's up to -154 right now. The total is interesting. I always love the ESPN Sunday Night under trend, but it came down from 9 and I would not trust Lopez. I'll sit this one out and start capping Monday's card. Quite a few games I like tomorrow...hopefully the gambling gods pay us back for today.

Onto Monday..

[man_of_steel]

Good luck tomoro LTA.

[Redscot]

Damn bro, the S.D. play was solid. Naturally as under players we will get more "bad beats" than the other side but it has been more than excessive. Keep up the good work bud, you are on point with your reads.

Battening down the hatches here, not sure how hard Irene will hit, but may be offline for a minute if it is hard. Have a good one all.

[Love The Action]

Damn bro, the S.D. play was solid. Naturally as under players we will get more "bad beats" than the other side but it has been more than excessive. Keep up the good work bud, you are on point with your reads.

Battening down the hatches here, not sure how hard Irene will hit, but may be offline for a minute if it is hard. Have a good one all.

Holy cow...sometimes I don't even have time to watch the news and didn't know that the DR was about to get hit by a hurricane. Be safe Redscot...wishing you and your family well

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/21/11

1 - 3 = -2.5x

MLB Season 2011

352 - 319 = +28.36x

Padres collapse causes a swing from a +1.5x night to a -2.5x night. Too bad they can't all be easy like that AZ/Atl under....

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/22/11

Play #1

Detroit/TB under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

This is a great pitching matchup between two guys who have been two of the hotter, if not hottest, pitchers since the all-star break. I won't go through all of Verlander's numbers, but they are top 10 MLB stuff across the board. Niemann has been very solid, especially of late. My concern on this play is the amount of pitches he has had recently with 6 of his last 7 games going over 100 pitches and 5 of those 7 over 114 pitches. He has never come close to those number during any stretch throughout his career. Nevertheless, this guy should be in the prime of his career and if he's going to establish himself as an upper echelon pitcher, he has to succeed in spots like this. As a competitor, Niemann should be "up" for playing this game game opposite Verlander. He knows it's going to be a big game and I think we can depend on him here. Niemann has very solid season numbers that are not in Verlander's territory, but a notch down with a K% over 18%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's and GB/FB around 1.2. Both pitchers have dominated the opposing lineup throughout the past with each limiting the other team to an OBP under .650 and BAA under .250. This game is in the "Trop," so that's always an added benefit. I don't have the ump assignments yet, but I fully expect this one to get juiced at -120 in the morning. I don't think we'll see 6.5, which is where I have this one set, because the Tigers offense is involved, but I definitely think we see -120 juice on the under tomorrow. I'm locking in the under now for 1.5x before the juice kicks in. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

I am backing Eovoldi one more time. He has come through for me three times in a row supporting him on the under, so why not four. His advanced stats aren't overwhelming, but solid nonetheless. Carpenter is having another solid season and has improved month to month. This guy is a workhorse that pitches better as the playoffs near. Just like in the Detroit/TB game, Carpenter has pitched very well against the Dodgers lineup and I think he limits them tomorrow. Busch Stadium is also more of a pitchers park and I think that helps us a bit where Eovoldi has trouble keeping the ball on the ground. I think the fact that the Cardinals have never faced Eovoldi, gives him the advantage because adjustments cannot be made. I don't see this one going to 7.5 and expect the juice to switch from the over to the under sometime before the game. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x.

I have one more play I'm looking to make before bed, but cannot get a line on it yet. I don't know why neither of my books have this play yet, so it's likely I make it sometime in the middle of the night and post it in the morning. I will definitely be locking in it as soon as I can. Good luck tomorrow gentlemen

[Krazymojo]

Im Back

[Krazymojo]

Wheres the football picks??? LOL