Shut Out System

[black666]

wow...tough day yesterday. Let's hope we get some game 1 & 2 winners today because my game 1 & 2 labby starts to get a bit out of hand lol.

btw: if you guys are looking for more action. I played around a bit and was looking for a new system. If you tail a team for 6 games which has more than 10 more wins than losses (a record of 34 - 21 for example), you get almost double the plays in with a higher % of winning. The original tail system was like 98.8% .. the one I just described is over 99%
We are not quite there yet with the current records, but that's a thing I might look into some more .. and maybe start a new thread.

(Tail a team that has more than 10 more wins than losses - 6 game chase)

6 year total 2849 - 28
6 year total worst teams:
TOR 18-2 0.9
SEA 31-2 0.939
WSN 18-1 0.947

Game 1: 1547 - 1330
Game 2: 731 - 599
Game 3: 321 - 278
Game 4: 156 - 122
Game 5: 62 - 60
Game 6: 32 - 28

[black666]

On to today's games:

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Giants game 2
fade Astros game 2
fade Rockies game 2
fade Red Sox game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase):

tail Tigers game 6
tail Braves game 3
tail Nationals game 2
tail Brewers game 2
tail Pirates game 2
tail Mariners game 1

For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this thread

let's hope that Priates, Brewers, Nationals and Mariners all come through today since they are part of both systems.

[Prime1]

wow...tough day yesterday. Let's hope we get some game 1 & 2 winners today because my game 1 & 2 labby starts to get a bit out of hand lol.

btw: if you guys are looking for more action. I played around a bit and was looking for a new system. If you tail a team for 6 games which has more than 10 more wins than losses (a record of 34 - 21 for example), you get almost double the plays in with a higher % of winning. The original tail system was like 98.8% .. the one I just described is over 90%
We are not quite there yet with the current records, but that's a thing I might look into some more .. and maybe start a new thread.

(Tail a team that has more than 10 more wins than losses - 6 game chase)

6 year total 2849 - 28
6 year total worst teams:
TOR 18-2 0.9
SEA 31-2 0.939
WSN 18-1 0.947

Game 1: 1547 - 1330
Game 2: 731 - 599
Game 3: 321 - 278
Game 4: 156 - 122
Game 5: 62 - 60
Game 6: 32 - 28

Outstanding Work here,

Just a quick question, In this potential system, you would be tailing a team that has 10 more wins than losses, AFTER A Shutout Win = correct?

[black666]

No. I would be tailing a team as soon as it has at least 11 more wins than losses (wins - losses > 10). If it finishes the series and still has a winning record that qualifies, I start another chase etc.
That's the reason why there are over 2800 system plays. Double the plays and a higher % (2849 / (2849 + 28) = 99.03%) .. sounds like a good plan to me :-) ... the high % is probably due to the fact that only good teams fit the criteria and it's very unlikely that a 43-28 team loses 6 in a row.

I still have to do some testings / dry runs .. or maybe I'll just start a thread and start with really small units. Chasing a favorite is obv more expensive and and the amount of games demand very good bankroll management + a good labby.

You guys can do with the info whatever you like. Don't wait for me to start a thread. You can even start one on your own. I'm also not saying that it has to be a 6 game chase. Even a 4 game chase has only 122 losses in 2877 system plays.
I'm just posting raw numbers. Whatever conclusions you guys draw from that is up to you :-)

[ChicagoCover]

black,

i'm going to look into that

[stevex]

Detroit is absolutely discusting to watch.

[stevex]

Detroit just didn't have enough in the tank to pull out a win so unfortunately we have our first system loss of the year....

Black keep posting everyday though man. This system (as you proved) makes money in the long run and that's what we are here for. Tomorrow will be a better day!

[Prime1]

Thanks for the clarification. Great info.

[black666]

The Tigers loss sucked .. but we also had some wins by teams we bet on for both systems ..so not really a bad day. Let's keep the ball rolling

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Astros game 3
fade Red Sox game 2
fade Brewers game 1
fade Dodgers game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase):

tail Brewers game 3
tail Astros game 1
tail Padres game 1

For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this thread

For people who are playing both systems: Since we are tailing and fading Brewers and Astros today, I can promise you that we will win at least 2 bets

[atari5200]

tail Seattle game 2 will be on tomorrow then. Let's get this tonight.

[stevex]

Thanks for posting Black. Rough weekend for the system, but lets get back on track today!

[cancan]

No problem, it happens. Good job

[Prime1]

How to Maintain Consistent Labby Line Managment

i'm going with black666 here to make both systems a 6 game chase. My labby lines will work out better that way. It was a rough night. No winners. It'll all be worth it in the end.

Atari,

Just curious, in your experience using labby management, does it make sense to reshuffle the line daily, to make each wager equal. (I'm guessing you might have 6 lines for a 6 game chase, but for a simple answer to a complex question, I'm just showing 3 lines below)

For example, if your your first set of wager line are:

line 1: 10-10-10-10
line 2: 10-10-10-10
line 3: 10-10-10-10

hypothetically we have a loss in line one. say the wager was (-170) so $34 to win $20 and we lose. = $34

do you simply add the 34 to the end of line one, or would you consider a reshuffle. By reshuffle, I mean adding all current numbers (10) x 12 = 120 + 34 = 154
so 154/12 = 12.83 and just round up to (13)

so now your new lines would look like this?:

line 1 = 13-13-13-13
line 2 = 13-13-13-13
line 3 = 13-13-13-13

For this system, Would you frown on this style of labby management?

If you answer NO to the reshuffle, do you suggest playing the existing numbers with any consistent basis: for example in the past I've used the Largest Existing numbers, with the smallest available Money Line to clear. So if we have two wagers for a game one. Wager 1: is (-170), and Wager 2 is (-110).

My lines are now :
10-10-10-44
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

I would wager (10+44) @ (-110), and then I would wager (10+10) @ (-170)

Sorry for such a complicated question here, but I hope it might help anyone who is unsure of how to proceed with consistent Labby Line Management.

[atari5200]

Prime 1. I posted my labby lines that i'm using earlier in this thread. Sorry if it takes you a few minutes but please take a look at it. I separate game1 and 2 into a 4 line labby, then game 3 and 4 into a 1 line labby (add more lines if there are too many bets that night on game 3 and 4) and one more 1 line labby for game 5 and 6.

I will always add another number at the end of the line i was betting on. Then I WILL reshuffle the numbers to make them all equal. I believe that with this system, each game has enough of a chance of winning like the others and all games must carry equal weight. I'm tired of winning and crossing out the smaller numbers on my line and losing a bet that I played with the larger numbers. There's no progress for me that way. Equal numbers, equal wins.

[atari5200]

games 1 and 2 need to pick things up. It's becoming a bit too much effort for minimal gains.

[stevex]

Have to agree Atari. Tomorrow really needs to be a big day for this system.

[black666]

Good discussion about labbys. I guess I need to rethink my labby strategy. I've never reshuffeld and used sperate lines for game 1&2, game 3&4 and game 5&6. All those game 1&2 losses have led to one specific line going super crazy and other lines clearing easily.

My new labby management will probably contain as many lines as there are bets on a day (4 - 6 lines should be enough) and then reshuffle the numbers after each day. This way it doesn't matter if a bet is game 1 or game 5 .. the same weight for each bet.
Right now we are losing the big game 1&2 bets but winning the small game 3&4 bets. Reshuffling also helps in keeping betsizes in check when we hit a rough stretch like right now.

[black666]

Good discussion about labbys. I guess I need to rethink my labby strategy. I've never reshuffeld and used sperate lines for game 1&2, game 3&4 and game 5&6. All those game 1&2 losses have led to one specific line going super crazy and other lines clearing easily.

My new labby management will probably contain as many lines as there are bets on a day (4 - 6 lines should be enough) and then reshuffle the numbers after each day. This way it doesn't matter if a bet is game 1 or game 5 .. the same weight for each bet.
Right now we are losing the big game 1&2 bets but winning the small game 3&4 bets. Reshuffling also helps in keeping betsizes in check when we hit a rough stretch like right now.

[cancan]

So good luck for the System, my best wishes

[Prime1]

Prime 1. I posted my labby lines that i'm using earlier in this thread. Sorry if it takes you a few minutes but please take a look at it. I separate game1 and 2 into a 4 line labby, then game 3 and 4 into a 1 line labby (add more lines if there are too many bets that night on game 3 and 4) and one more 1 line labby for game 5 and 6.

I will always add another number at the end of the line i was betting on. Then I WILL reshuffle the numbers to make them all equal. I believe that with this system, each game has enough of a chance of winning like the others and all games must carry equal weight. I'm tired of winning and crossing out the smaller numbers on my line and losing a bet that I played with the larger numbers. There's no progress for me that way. Equal numbers, equal wins.

Thanks for your response Atari. I did read your post #248 and then post #279. and I genuinely respect everyone's contribution to the thread. I agree with you, that The "Reshuffle" of lines, equal wagers for every game, just makes the most sense.

Just one more detail that I'd like your opinion on. Managing my lines, I intend to keep 4 equal numbers per line, which infers, that I only have two games for a game 1, two games for a game 2, and so on...

We all know that there will be days that we have 3, 4, 5, or even 6 games that are a Game ONE. We won't need to add any additional numbers, because now we have a chance to go 3-1 or 4-2 on just the Game 1's alone, and actually clear a line. If we lose going 1-3 or 2-4, now we RESHUFFLE, and just spread the losses EVENLY through the remaining lines. If you agree with this method, I'm not sure I could create a spreadsheet that would be easy to follow, but I could create and maintain a kind of Labby Blueprint. One could view our progress on the blueprint, and adjust their wagers up or down based on their own wagering comfort level.

If we could show how to clear 6 lines, it would help us to keep the "thread-trolls" educated, and when a problem or I'll say "new opportunity" arises, we could put our heads together and come up with a TEAM solution. Whatever it takes to stay focused, and reach this thread's common Goal, which is to win.

[black666]

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Astros game 3 (Astros game was postponed yesterday..so we are still at game 3)
fade Red Sox game 3
fade Dodgers game 2
fade Giants game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase):

tail Brewers game 4
tail Mariners game 2
tail Padres game 2
tail Astros game 1 (Astros game was postponed yesterday..so we are still at game 1)
tail Nationals game 1


For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this thread

[stevex]

HUGE night for this system. Any body in favor of a bounce back night?

[TheDood]

I'm curious to see how this works out for you...

I've done something similar with shuffling the team under's in MLB, and it was just very small gains, and a lot of effort to keep up with 20+ bet's per day...

But I like how you're doing it. It'll be great if it works out for you, and I'll prolly follow along too for fun.

[playr101]

GL tonight

-playr101

[stevex]

An OK night, but definetly a step in the right direction. On to tomorrow folks! Black, I say we make some cash money tomorrow, what do you think?

[ghislaine]

After the couple days my lines were real heavy, but did them over and now they are just reheeally loooooong
but once, cleared, bank is healthier again. Will redo again to raise unit sizes if I finally get winners !!
Seems all my systems did poorly last weekend and monday and tuesday...

[cancan]

great play last night. ty

[Michael Ferro]

anything helps information is information.. thanks

[apwmel]

GL Today everybody.

[black666]

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Astros game 4
fade Red Sox game 4
fade Giants game 2
fade White Sox game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):

tail Brewers game 4 (double header so maybe also game 5)
tail Nationals game 2
tail Twins game 1


For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this thread

Great day yesterday .. finally some games from System 2 came through. I reshuffeld my labbies and now they look somewhat manageable lol.

Also notice that the Brewers game is a double header today. So if they lose game 4, we should actually bet game 5 right after. Sucks for people from Europe like me .. I'll probably check the score in the 6th or 7th inning and then place a bet or not - and hope that the team with the lead doesn't blow it.

[stevex]

Thanks Black!

Lets have a big day today!

[knugen]

ooohhh yes... gooo reds

[Cranium]

GL and thanks Black!!

[black666]

meh..I was too late with placing my bets, so I missed the fade Astros game. Obviously the system pulls through when I miss a bet lol.

Oh well .. let's hope the other games also come through and let me forget my mistake.

[black666]

Brewers are killing us lol .. fun day today since we are again betting on both teams for 2 games. Giants @ Mets is the best game for today with 3 bets on it - we will probably win at least one of them

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Giants game 3
fade Yankees game 1
fade Mets game 1
fade Brewers game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):

tail Brewers game 6
tail Nationals game 3
tail Tigers game 1
tail Giants game 1
tail Braves game 1


For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this thread