Nc '11

[CanuckG]

I had plays on 5 games tonight, ARI/MIL/BOS/LAA/COL. The five starters went:

Haren: 7IP, 8H, 3ER, 1BB, 6K
Jimenez: 7IP, 6H, 2ER, 0BB, 8K
Hudson: 7IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 7K
Lester: 6IP, 8H, 3ER, 1BB, 5K
Marcum: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 4BB, 1K

and ironically, Lester pitched the worst but got the only win. Un...fukking...believeable... Counting down the days until NFL starts up again...

Looks like you're just betting on name brand pitchers and not going by anything else.

[suicidekings]

Looks like you're just betting on name brand pitchers and not going by anything else.

Not typically my thing. I just liked them all tonight. But even if you take the names away, you wouldn't expect those five pitching lines to yield a 1-4 record. But wtv. Another day...

[BigDan]

Really dont like 2marros card at all. Would like to play twinks again but every time i watch Pavano pitch i think i could jack one off that guy. lol, seriously though the value prob there cept i think Pavano sucks even more in the day and curious to see if cle can get another much needed W, their schedule up to the break is brutal so they really need this 1.

[clairvoyance]

Not typically my thing. I just liked them all tonight. But even if you take the names away, you wouldn't expect those five pitching lines to yield a 1-4 record. But wtv. Another day...

most of those games had low totals and its just an example of how the market overvalues starting pitching

[CanuckG]

Could see the Cubbies playing a bit better tomorrow...

[BigDan]

Could see the Cubbies playing a bit better tomorrow...

Really want to play them but i figured that is a sign of how bad the card is to me.

Im just not the guy who tries to bet teams when they sliding like this, i gotta keep telling myself this so i dont do it.

[No coincidences]

Could see the Cubbies playing a bit better tomorrow...

I think if you played the Cubs and Twins tomorrow early, at worst you'd go 1-1.

[clairvoyance]

Could see the Cubbies playing a bit better tomorrow...

the best bet in this game is the under

[No coincidences]

I had plays on 5 games tonight, ARI/MIL/BOS/LAA/COL. The five starters went:

Haren: 7IP, 8H, 3ER, 1BB, 6K
Jimenez: 7IP, 6H, 2ER, 0BB, 8K
Hudson: 7IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 7K
Lester: 6IP, 8H, 3ER, 1BB, 5K
Marcum: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 4BB, 1K

and ironically, Lester pitched the worst but got the only win. Un...fukking...believeable... Counting down the days until NFL starts up again...

When you lay a decent amount of juice with an ace, two things often happen:

1) No run support
2) Opposing pitcher steps up and pitches above his head

If both occur, your bet is in trouble. I try to avoid these games if possible, unless I see some other angle.

[No coincidences]

good night all around. what you looking at for tomorrow? Boston, white sox and eeek royals stick out.

and yes for jays game it ended up being a no play.

Dan knows his shit.

Leans for Wednesday:

FLA -113
KC -107
CHC +131
MIN +143
OAK +129
BOS +113
HOU +139 (sort of)

Twins and Cubs will likely be afternoon plays. Hang on to your hats, boys and girls.

Looking at Pittsburgh as well, though I don't like taking them as a fave.

Will probably be on Scrubs, Twins, BoSox and Royals for sure. May consider the Nats again as well. We'll see.

[No coincidences]

Pads look kind of nice, too.

Moseley's been one of the more underrated starters in baseball so far. Too bad they don't hit for him.

[clairvoyance]

twins look good, nationals look to be the clear play of the day

[No coincidences]

Good to see proven vets like Canuck, SK, Dan, vyom, lunch and others posting in this thread. Thanks for the help and thoughts, fellas! Stop by any time!

[No coincidences]

Unders for the two early games as well? Possibly -- both are sitting at plus money right now, but if you look at the stats, they might be plays.

[vyomguy]

pavano ( twins) pitched 9 innings last game....he pitched 8 innings before that....both with high pitch count. Not sure if he has arm to go deep tomorrow.

[clairvoyance]

Unders for the two early games as well? Possibly -- both are sitting at plus money right now, but if you look at the stats, they might be plays.

twins total doesn't look too good, cubs/reds under looks marginal because the total is a little high(for the current season), i'd wait and see how the betting action comes in first. might be better to just pass

pavano ( twins) pitched 9 innings last game....he pitched 8 innings before that....both with high pitch count. Not sure if he has arm to go deep tomorrow.

there is no correlation between high pitch count in previous outings and subsequent profitable lines. there is actually a positive expectation correlation for extreme high pitch counts, 125+ but the sample size is small and it seems unlikely to me that a majority of the market is using pitch counts to sway what side they take so i wouldn't trust it

[clairvoyance]

i also think we're at a point right now where there is no value betting giants unders. in normal circumstances that game tomorrow would be prime but not based on where the market is trending recently

[vyomguy]

twins total doesn't look too good, cubs/reds under looks marginal because the total is a little high(for the current season), i'd wait and see how the betting action comes in first. might be better to just pass there is no correlation between high pitch count in previous outings and subsequent profitable lines. there is actually a positive expectation correlation for extreme high pitch counts, 125+ but the sample size is small and it seems unlikely to me that a majority of the market is using pitch counts to sway what side they take so i wouldn't trust it

majority of the market dont care about pitch count...but its an important factor. Pavano pitched more than 8 innings in past two games which is not normal for him. He will be hit tomorrow.

[clairvoyance]

majority of the market dont care about pitch count...but its an important factor. Pavano pitched more than 8 innings in past two games which is not normal for him. He will be hit tomorrow.

ok so lets assume that the books have never considered this when making a line(ludicrous) and that you're right that he'll be hit tomorrow. what does that translate to in % chance the indians have to win? is it 65%? is it 53%? whats YOUR fair line? hint: the answer isn't "if pavano is crap the indians will win and that makes them a good bet"

[clairvoyance]

how can it be an important factor when there's no evidence to support the idea that previous high pitch count makes the other side a good bet?

[axa]

No discussion. Let's have some winners today

[gv12]

good luck today noco

[No coincidences]

MIN +145 (1U)
MIN under 9 (1U)
CHC +127 (1U)
CHC under 9 (1U)
WAS +164 (1U)
WAS over 7.5 (1U)

That's what I have so far.

[BrigadierPudding]

Unders for the two early games as well? Possibly -- both are sitting at plus money right now, but if you look at the stats, they might be plays.

Unders at plus money often times represent the best value, especially in this environment. It will probably correct itself but the totals market has been incredibly soft thus far, imo.

GL on your plays.

[phillybadboy]

cappinpiks is on fire 44-4 run

[JamesBrown]

Lets get some cubbie money today, NC!

[No coincidences]

Lets get some cubbie money today, NC!

You know I'll be cursing them out if they lose like usual.

[CanuckG]

tempted to play the cubbies

[miyakuza]

Cleveland just got pounded on 5dimes

[No coincidences]

MIN +145 (1U)
MIN under 9 (1U)
CHC +127 (1U)
CHC under 9 (1U)
WAS +164 (1U)
WAS over 7.5 (1U)

That's what I have so far.

Adding a unit to the Scrubs and the under 9.

Yep, Minny's losing steam late.

[miyakuza]

Good luck today NC! Glad you're getting the run going again. Not many people on here really put in as much effort as you to win money.



Cubs getting hit now. Like it.

[CanuckG]

Good Luck Guys..

[No coincidences]

Good Luck Guys..

You too Canuck.

Cubbies for you? Yea? Nay? Anything else?

[CanuckG]

Just played Under 9 for the game.

[vyomguy]

cubs look good...but i took under....hope both of them come through for u no coin.