John Morrison 2011 MLB

[Wallco99]

I heard a stat the other day that only 25% of MLB games are won by 1 run. I thought, why am I betting all this heavy juice lines when I could just bet the -1.5 rl on favs, or the ml on underdogs instead of laying all that juice and still win 75% of the time? After some quick backtesting using this concept for JMs system, I have come up with a record of 108-11 over the past 3 years. Since I can not find history on exact odds for runlines, I can only assume... My assumption is that by betting the -1.5 rl on all favorites and the ml on all underdogs for a full 3 game chase, if all three lost, you would probably not lose more then 7 units total. On the other side, when winning a game using this concept, you will be getting plus odds almost every time. So say worse case scenario in my mind, every win is at +110 and every loss is at +100... with a record of 108-11, your total overall profit would be: +41.8 units.... again, I believe that the odds would normally better then +110, but if not, approx 42 units is not terrible. I know a lot of us would like more profit then this, but just a thought i had in case anyone would like a safer way to go about these bets (rather then laying -200+ for most bets)... a lot of the times betting games like this you will be getting anywhere from +150 to +200... so therefore losing a series could cost only 4/5 units.. so just something to think about. I think a record of 108-11 has some potential getting odds like this.. what do you guys think?

I have already included this theory in one of my backtests, the results aren't as good as you think. But I am still working it.

[DustyDiamond]

FYI everyone, I am working on back testing the shutout system for the 2010. I've only done all the teams in the AL East. Record so far 37-0 with 1 (F) bet. I'll keep everyone posted

[dukipl]

cant wait 4 the mlb system, last year was

[jordanfreak]

So is the first bet dodgers and giants people?

[knugen]

Cant say That already, first they had to be swept!

[knugen]

cant wait 4 the mlb system, last year was

Whichh system did u follow lat year? Only JM?

[Wallco99]

FYI everyone, I am working on back testing the shutout system for the 2010. I've only done all the teams in the AL East. Record so far 37-0 with 1 (F) bet. I'll keep everyone posted

I have a similar backtest going, what are you checking for?

[DustyDiamond]

I'm now doing two back tests, one for betting against after a shutout and one for betting for after a shutout.
Currently I have for the shutout against 231-2 with the NL west left. I may be off a bit (not on the losses) damn gf keeps talking and taking away my thought. I'm also sitting at 107-2 for the bet to win after a shutout loss, with a long ways to go on the backtesting

[dlunc3]

you guys know that there are sites out there that do backtesting for you? I have never used them, but I heard that you can type in whatever you want it it will do the backtesting for you... guys on the covers forum use it..

[soldier1047]

What are the backtesting sites?

[DustyDiamond]

I have no clue, I wish I knew what the backtesting sites are. If anyone knows please share, I have been backtesting using mlb.com and looking at past results.

[DustyDiamond]

OK here is my back test for the bet against after a shutout. All bets are based on ML. I'm hoping that there were dogs in this which resulted in MLs in our favor. I wonder how this would work using labby.

280-3
A: 142-141
B: 75-66
C: 35-31
D: 11-20
E: 10-10
F: 7-3

[Marrowhine]

Has anyone looked much at making straight non chase bets on the MLB system, ie is it profitable to bet on all A bets without chase or wait to take B bets only etc?

[soldier1047]

I used to do manual backtesting. Now some basic excel programing. Still lots of work. LOL

[DustyDiamond]

I'm almost done backtesting the bet to win after a shutout. Have two divisions left to go, already have 5 losses. Not sure if even labby could save that one

[dlunc3]

JM Disciple posted the stats below concerning JMs basketball systems... Has anyone here backtested whether it would be smart to only bet the B and C bets in baseball as well?

A bet wins 81
B bet wins 35
C bet wins 16
C bet losses = 4


With Estimate 19 units per series.



Total wins: 81 + 35 + 16 = 132 units won
Minus losses: 4 x 19 = 76


Total profit gained betting to win 1 unit per series = 56 units
*this is for 1 unit bettors starting from A level.


B & C bettors who bet to win 3 units


35 + 16 = 51 x 3 units = 153 units won
minus 4 x 19 = 76


B & C bettors total profit gained = 77 units.


That is extra 20 units gained this season if you show patience and only bet B & C

[soldier1047]

It is probably wiser to bet b&c only. ABC bets is way too much juice. Still need verified data though...

[soldier1047]

I done all that backtesting. I have to look for the file.

[shinnman]

JM Disciple posted the stats below concerning JMs basketball systems... Has anyone here backtested whether it would be smart to only bet the B and C bets in baseball as well?

A bet wins 81
B bet wins 35
C bet wins 16
C bet losses = 4


With Estimate 19 units per series.



Total wins: 81 + 35 + 16 = 132 units won
Minus losses: 4 x 19 = 76


Total profit gained betting to win 1 unit per series = 56 units
*this is for 1 unit bettors starting from A level.


B & C bettors who bet to win 3 units


35 + 16 = 51 x 3 units = 153 units won
minus 4 x 19 = 76


B & C bettors total profit gained = 77 units.


That is extra 20 units gained this season if you show patience and only bet B & C

can i ask where you are getting 19 units for a lost series

[J.M. Disciple]

can i ask where you are getting 19 units for a lost series

Standard 3 game chase after buying 3pts = roughly 19 units. some say like 18.45 or whatever, i just rounded up to 19.

[J.M. Disciple]

I keep hearing of all these systems going on for baseball. What are the most profitable systems to follow for baseball?

I heard JM did crap last year.

[shinnman]

Standard 3 game chase after buying 3pts = roughly 19 units. some say like 18.45 or whatever, i just rounded up to 19.

oh i was assuming baseball

[knugen]

I keep hearing of all these systems going on for baseball. What are the most profitable systems to follow for baseball?

I heard JM did crap last year.

I heats yesterday That crusher went like 91-1, so in goung to follow him and G's has à Hood system also.....

[irishfan201]

Thanks ill try this! Love it so far..

[ghislaine]

hi everyone,
very excited to see all the familiar nicks here !!
def gonna hop on this money train, will chase, but only with a fraction
of my capital. Hagball, You are so right, dont get fooled to buy premium.
I always follow these threads, before making a bet.
I love You guys, shout out to Steve and Bauerranch et al!
Lets make some money

[dratk00l]

hi everyone,
very excited to see all the familiar nicks here !!
def gonna hop on this money train, will chase, but only with a fraction
of my capital. Hagball, You are so right, dont get fooled to buy premium.
I always follow these threads, before making a bet.
I love You guys, shout out to Steve and Bauerranch et al!
Lets make some money

What he said! Glad to see some of the NBA guys posting as well. Some smart people are on this thread.

-Alex

[Wallco99]

Nice to know we are starting out with multiple systems, instead of trying to sneak them in under the radar like we had to do in NBA thread. One stop shopping for baseball is what we need. Just whoever is going to be the official poster of a certain system, make it known, and try to keep your posts consistent and looking the same every time, this way, people will know what to look for each day. If there are any system rules for your system and they have been posted, include the post # in your daily picks post, TRUST ME, it will stop hundred's of questions. One guy doesn't have to do it all, unless of course he wants to. Any systems I devise, I will be posting my own plays as official, and if anyone else posts something different, that will not be deemed official. It just looks like several systems are on the burners here, either already in use or currently being backtested. Lets just iron out who will be officially posting what before we even get started, before it becomes a free for all, and everybody just starts posting everything that comes to mind. Our NBA ran pretty smooth all season, no reason this thread can't be just as successful. Props to imotiv8 for getting it going. Good luck to all, and I will see you soon.

[DustyDiamond]

Backtested a possible system for betting on a team after they get shut out. Results are:
258-6

A: 135-129
B: 70-59
C: 26-33
D: 14-19
E: 9-10
F: 4-6

6 losses is a lot for a 6 game chase, I don't think labby could save this one, guess it depends on if your betting -200 or +150. Which is possible in MLB. I will track this system this year but not play it.

[DustyDiamond]

In response to Wallco's post about posting, I'll post the Shutout bet against system and Reverend's Fav system here. I may need help down the road as my work takes me to time zones that are +15 hours EST. Definately looking forward to the season. I see people are talking about Crusher, does anyone know that system?

[J.M. Disciple]

Crushers Record

Here is Crusher's spread sheet from last season. He does a 4 game chase that can get expensive because he ML his plays. There are also a couple other cappers on this thing. I got this file from someone that followed crusher. He went +80 units last season, you can see the totals at the bottom of the excel file.

Hope this helps.

[soldier1047]

Is anyone familiar with the Triple Play System for baseball? Profitable?

[soldier1047]

I brought this! Does anyone wants to back-test it?

Triple Play System 1.0 A step-by-step system for the MLB 2010 Season
The triple play System is a very simple and powerful system. It’s a system that takes advantage of the top three teams at home and the worst/bottom three teams on the road. Let’s get right to it! First, I’m going show you how a top three team series qualifies and does not qualify. Then I’m going to show you how a bottom three team series qualifies and does not qualify.

Top three teams
1) How to detect when a series qualifies for the system.
2) The exceptions, when series does not qualify
3) How to bet it
Bottom three teams
1) How to detect when a series qualifies for the system.
2) The exceptions, when series does not qualify
3) How to bet it

Top three teams: How to select a series The following criteria must be met.
1) Find the top three teams of winning percentage from the previous season. For example, for the 2010 season the top three teams are:
a) Angles
b) Yankees
c) Boston

2) Find the top three teams that are starting a new three or four game series at home.

a) For the series to qualify the team must be playing a team that did not finish in the top six in winning percentage from the previous year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/year/2009/group/9
Top three teams: How to avoid a series The following criteria must be met.
1. Don’t make the selection if there are injuries to two or more key players on the starting lineup at the beginning of the series.
2. Don’t make the selection after September 1st. The main reason, September call ups (teams bringing up minor league players)
Top three teams: How to bet The following criteria must be met. Once you find a game that meets the criteria, you are only betting the top team will win one game of the series. Once they win the one game in the series you’re done betting that series.
1. If the team you selected is the favorite you bet the money line.
2. If the team you selected is EVER the underdog you bet the +1.5 line.
Top three teams: Example
5-30-2009 The Angels were playing the Mariners in a new three game series. Based on how we select a series you would take the Angels +1.5. They lost the game 4-3 but you would have WON the bet by .5 Betting strategy:
 Game 1:3, 1 unit
 Game 2:3, 2 units
 Game 3:3, 4 units
How to select bottom three team The following criteria must be met.
1. Find the bottom three teams of winning percentage from the previous season. For example, for the 2010-2011 season the bottom three teams are:
b) Nationals
c) Pirates
d) Orioles

2. Look for the bottom three teams that are starting a new three or four game series on the road.
3. For the bottom teams to qualify they must be starting a new series with a team that finished 500 winning percentage or higher the previous year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/year/2009/group/9
Bottom three teams: How to avoid a series The following criteria must be met.

1. Don’t make the selection if there are injuries to 2 or more key players on the starting lineup at the beginning of the series.
2. Don’t make the selection after September 1st. The main reason, September call ups (teams bringing up minor league players)
Bottom three teams: How to bet The following criteria must be met. Once you find a game that meets the criteria, you are only betting against the bottom team. You’re betting they will lose one game of the series. Once the team loses one game in the series you’re done betting that series.
1. If the team you selected is the favorite you bet the money line. (Remember, you’re betting against the bottom/worst team)

2. If the team you selected is EVER the underdog you bet the +1.5 line. (Remember, you’re betting against the bottom/worst team)
Bottom three teams:
Example
On 6-12-2009 The Washington Nationals were playing a 3 game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. On 6-12 the Rays were favored -270. The result, you would have won the first game. So you’re finished with that series. Betting strategy:
 Game 1:3, 1 unit
 Game 2:3, 2 units
 Game 3:3, 4 units

[J.M. Disciple]

I went ahead and broke down Crusher on his spread sheet.

A:45-34
B 22-12
C 7-5
D5-0

It appears he went undefeated in his 4 game chase last year.
How did JM do last year?

[soldier1047]

TPS 1.0 Results
2010 Results: 67 Wins – 2 Losses
2009 Results: 79 Wins – 0 Losses

2009 Season’s Record:
Chicago Cubs 2009
4-13 win - Colorado
4-17 win - St. Louis
4-21 win - Cincinnati
5-1 win - Florida
5-12 win - San Diego
5-26 win - Pittsburg
5-29 win – LA Dodgers
6-14 win - Minnesota
6-19 win - Cleveland
7-6 win - Atlanta
7-11 win - St. Louis
7-24 win - Cincinnati
7-27 win - Houston
8-14 win - Pittsburgh
8-26 win - Washington
8-28 win – NY Mets
LA Angels 2009
4-6 win - Oakland
4-21 win - Detroit
4-26 win - Seattle
5-8 win - Kansas City
5-27 win - Chi White sox
5-31 win - Seattle
6-12 win - San Diego
6-19 win - LA Dodgers
6-23 win - Colorado
7-2 win - Baltimore
7-6 win - Texas
7-23 win - Minnesota
7-28 win - Cleveland
8-8 win - Texas
8-26 win - Detroit
8-28 win – Oakland
Yankees 2009
4-17 - win - Cleveland
5-19 - win - Baltimore
6-2 - win - Texas
6-16 - win - Washington
6-30 - win - Seattle
7-3 - win - Toronto
7-17 - win - Detroit
7-20 - win - Baltimore
7-23 - win - Oakland
8-11 - win - Toronto
8-26 - win - Texas
8-28 - win - Chi White sox
Nationals 2009
*Remember you're betting against the bottom team so a loss is a win.
4-6 Loss Florida
4-24 Loss NY Mets
4-27 Loss Philadelphia
5-6 Loss LA Dodgers
5-10 Loss Arizona
5-25 Loss NY Mets
5-29 Loss Philadelphia
6-12 Loss Tampa Bay
6-16 Loss NY Yankees
6-29 Loss Florida
7-10 Loss Houston
7-29 Loss Milwaukee
8-26 Loss Chi Cubs
8-28 Loss St. Louis
Padres 2009
*Remember you're betting against the bottom team so a loss is a win.
4-15 Loss NY Mets
4-19 Loss Philadelphia
4-30 Loss LA Dodgers
5-8 Loss Houston
5-12 Loss Chi Cubs
5-26 Loss Arizona
6-12 Loss LA Angels
7-6 Loss Arizona
8-13 Loss Milwaukee
8-14 Loss St Louis
8-30 Loss Florida
Seattle 2009
*Remember you're betting against the bottom team so a loss is a win.
4-7 Loss Minnesota
4-26 Loss LA Angels
4-28 Loss Chi white sox
5-8 Loss Minnesota
5-3 Loss LA angels
6-26 Loss LA dodgers
6-30 Loss NY Yankees
7-5 Loss Boston
7-16 Loss Cleveland
8-22 Loss Cleveland

[soldier1047]

JM lost 4 Games last year.

Giants lost to Padres.

Pirates lost to Astros.

Angels lost to Orioles.

and one more loss. (I don't know which team...)