Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[Dexter]

Dex i am surprised to see you using such simple logic. Like no coin said dont you think the books would lose big money if they allowed that arb to take place? they set the line higher than they wanted to for game 1 to get people on the cards. carp didnt even pitch 5 innings last time out or just that. wilson always struggled versus the tigers so that wasnt news. tex is free money this series. taking the dog here isnt wise and the fact they offer up the cards at +150 with homefield tells you all you need to know. i wouldnt be surprised if tex wins in 5 games. gl on your play nonetheless pal

i never use complex logic or read into lines (in this sport) the way you and nocoin do.
cj wilson has been on a 2 month downslide. he is one of the more comical world series aces i have seen in some time.

i was actually shocked to see you laying this juice on a ron washington coached team vs tony larussa. i know you look at coaches as part of your equation.

if you feel so confident, why such a small play?

[Dexter]

Why are the Rangers -140 or so for the series -- without home field advantage -- but underdogs in Game 1? Aren't the books setting themselves up for huge arb situations if people take St. Lou before the series but Texas after a Game 1 loss?

what would the series price be if the cards won game 1 say 4-2?

[ebbearsfb1]

Idk much how lines are set.. but if cards won 3 to 2 or something are they really going to drop the rangers from minus 160 to plus money?

[No coincidences]

what would the series price be if the cards won game 1 say 4-2?

I'd like to know. What do you think? Like +120 for Texas?

I'm not saying anything is guaranteed, but I think the books are trying to get you to gobble up the Cards at a "value" price for the series when, in fact, it's a sucker bet. Kind of feel the same way about Game 1. But that's just my take. I've been wrong before.

In my opinion, the Rangers take Game 1 and you'll have a better series price available for the Cardinals throughout the rest of the series.

Up 1-0 in a 7-game series ebb, yes, I think they'd have no choice but to make StL the fave.

And LTA, the books may have had to install TEX as a fave for the series, but not necessarily at the current price. StL has the homefield advantage and there is really no distinct and overwhelming factor in the Rangers' favor here. I honestly figured StL would be about +120 for the series at worst -- not +140 (or higher, depending on the book).

[Dexter]

I'd like to know. What do you think? Like +120 for Texas?

I'm not saying anything is guaranteed, but I think the books are trying to get you to gobble up the Cards at a "value" price for the series when, in fact, it's a sucker bet. Kind of feel the same way about Game 1. But that's just my take. I've been wrong before.

).

you know me....im just one big sucker in this sport

[lakerboy]

i never use complex logic or read into lines (in this sport) the way you and nocoin do.
cj wilson has been on a 2 month downslide. he is one of the more comical world series aces i have seen in some time.

i was actually shocked to see you laying this juice on a ron washington coached team vs tony larussa. i know you look at coaches as part of your equation.

if you feel so confident, why such a small play?

ron washington has been pressing all the right buttons just like tony but lets not overrate tony. the guy has been swept in the world series two times( one in which his team was a giant favorite). He also lost with the a's versus the dodgers who were perhaps outside of having orel hershiser the shittiest team ever to win the world series.


i am only laying this juice cause i truly believe that texas will overpower the cards. texas learned last year and this year they will put last years story to rest. this team is determined to correct what happened last year. -150 was my limit and i got it lower than that. the reason it is small is cause of the juice. if i can get a better price later on i will go for it.

[No coincidences]

you know me....im just one big sucker in this sport

You've had a hell of a year in baseball Dex. I hate betting against you here.

There's no reason for the Cards to be +140 in this series. None. I have yet to read a single argument in favor of Texas to justify the steep price, especially given the home field advantage and the fact that StL is favored tonight.

[Dexter]

You've had a hell of a year in baseball Dex. I hate betting against you here.

There's no reason for the Cards to be +140 in this series. None. I have yet to read a single argument in favor of Texas to justify the steep price, especially given the home field advantage and the fact that StL is favored tonight.

whats the public % for the series right now?....not game 1

[No coincidences]

whats the public % for the series right now?....not game 1

Believe it or not, I actually have no idea for either.

[Dexter]

ron washington has been pressing all the right buttons just like tony but lets not overrate tony. the guy has been swept in the world series two times( one in which his team was a giant favorite). He also lost with the a's versus the dodgers who were perhaps outside of having orel hershiser the shittiest team ever to win the world series.


i am only laying this juice cause i truly believe that texas will overpower the cards. texas learned last year and this year they will put last years story to rest. this team is determined to correct what happened last year. -150 was my limit and i got it lower than that. the reason it is small is cause of the juice. if i can get a better price later on i will go for it.

plus tony had roid rage players in his corner...ha

but he did win 1 with the cards as well. washington will screw up in the NL park when he has to make decisions.

[Dexter]

Believe it or not, I actually have no idea for either.

look it up when you get a chance...my work blocks thespread.com which i use for this stuff. im curious who the public is on....

[lakerboy]

plus tony had roid rage players in his corner...ha

but he did win 1 with the cards as well. washington will screw up in the NL park when he has to make decisions.

you are probably right about washington but i think that texas just has a way better team than st louis. dont forget the defense texas displays, can you really see them acting like jerry hairston or corey hart?

gl dex and congrats on the big year in bases.

are we gonna get some nba this year?

[lakerboy]

i see 50/50 with the public dex.

[No coincidences]

look it up when you get a chance...my work blocks thespread.com which i use for this stuff. im curious who the public is on....

I'm seeing pretty split on the ML Game 1, big on the StL RL Game 1, and about 60/40 Texas for the series.

[Dexter]

you are probably right about washington but i think that texas just has a way better team than st louis. dont forget the defense texas displays, can you really see them acting like jerry hairston or corey hart?

gl dex and congrats on the big year in bases.

are we gonna get some nba this year?

i hope not....i wanna keep my money. ha

[Love The Action]

I'm seeing pretty split on the ML Game 1, big on the StL RL Game 1, and about 60/40 Texas for the series.

NC is right. As of this morning, SI had almost even ML action for game 1, almost 85% on the over game 1 and over 60% on texas to win the series.

I'm starting to like the under more and more...you know layne is the ump, right?

[Dexter]

NC is right. As of this morning, SI had almost even ML action for game 1, almost 85% on the over game 1 and over 60% on texas to win the series.

I'm starting to like the under more and more...you know layne is the ump, right?

nope...thx

can only get 7.5 now...will wait

[lakerboy]

LTA why would anyone take the under here? Does that ump have a small strike zone? I can see both pitchers getting drilled here.

[Dexter]

LTA why would anyone take the under here? Does that ump have a small strike zone? I can see both pitchers getting drilled here.

layne was one of my A4 umps this year. he was 65% and 61% last 2 years. this year hes 55% on the under.

2010/2009

Jerry Layne - 65%/61%

[supr_villn]

man forget that umps biz ,,
the play is the god damn play
& the play never fcking changes ..

why can`t u ppl understand that ??
u would bet on 60% ?? 55% ?? lmao !

christ ..

ALL
THAT
SAID

STL ml -120 vs TEX
TEX STL under 7.5 (even)
TOR ml regulation -105 vs WPG

(3)(0.20)(1.23)

[supr_villn]

ps

really considering going all out on :

TEX -2.5 gm`s (+250)
& WS under 5.5 gm`s (+160)

series goes STL TEX TEX TEX TEX

not just a fact ,, it`s a lock ..
all u god damn non-believers

[No coincidences]

LTA why would anyone take the under here? Does that ump have a small strike zone? I can see both pitchers getting drilled here.

Ump and weather. If it never moves to 8, I think the under is a play.

[supr_villn]

Ump and weather. If it never moves to 8, I think the under is a play.

doesn`t matter what the line moves 2 .. unders ''is'' the play ,,
but as far as pertinence 2 ur statement it will reach 8 eventually

[Dexter]

World Series Play:

(5u) cards +150_i think the fact that the rangers dont have that ace to lean on will make a big difference in this series. HUGE edge in the dugout with Larussa>Washington and i think both offenses are a wash. Both bullpens have been excellent in the postseason so thats a wash as well. I will take the dog with home field advantage.

Game 1:

(5u) cards -120

(3u) under cards 7.5 (A4_Layne)

[No coincidences]

doesn`t matter what the line moves 2 .. unders ''is'' the play ,,
but as far as pertinence 2 ur statement it will reach 8 eventually

It's not going to sniff 8 at the sharp books.

[lakerboy]

no coin clear your box guy

[hkssupra69]

both bullpens have been good in the postseason so far but the Cardinals bullpen during the regular season was pretty bad. Plus add the fact that they'll have to face one extra hitter when it goes to Texas and we might see a regression from the St Louis bullpen. That's my thinking anyway.

(3u) under cards 7.5 (A4_Layne)

[azn624]

both bullpens have been good in the postseason so far but the Cardinals bullpen during the regular season was pretty bad. Plus add the fact that they'll have to face one extra hitter when it goes to Texas and we might see a regression from the St Louis bullpen. That's my thinking anyway.

The second part does not apply to this game as Cardinals have home field advantage and game 1 is in ST Louis. The under is for tonight's game only and pitchers will be hitting.

[cgars1]

St Louie and under 7.5

[supr_villn]

never did hit 8 ,, (but) don't need it ..

STL 4-1 all gm & STL 4-3 F

[Dexter]

its gonna hit 7...wow

[Love The Action]

Good luck Dex!

[Love The Action]

Nice

Good work bud...you're in the driver's seat and you earned it. Are you going to take the free money or ride it out?

[Dexter]

Nice

Good work bud...you're in the driver's seat and you earned it. Are you going to take the free money or ride it out?

i cant make any in series bets or live game bets....my guys dont have that.

[No coincidences]

i cant make any in series bets or live game bets....my guys dont have that.

Will you explain why the series price opened where it did Dex?

I've been asking around all day and still don't get it.