Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB

[BeatingBaseball]

Tigers

Another interesting situation this year is Detroit. They're not exactly my favorite type of team - already said they’ll be short on overall speed and they’ll also have some major defensive shortcomings with too many DHs having to actually play somewhere - but they’re definitely going to have a much improved lineup over 2010. When I combine their projected run scoring with some solid starting pitching I have them contending for the AL Central with MINN and WSOX.

It’s not often you see a team reduce payroll by $30 mil and get better, but this year's Tigers should pull it off. They're finally out from under the worst of Dombrowski’s disastrous deals including Ordonez’ last monster contract. Finally cashed out and gone are the likes of Dontrelle, Bonderman and Nate Robertson. Magglio will be back in the lineup but at the reduced price of only 10 million. I see the new leaner, meaner Tigers easily outperforming their 81-81 of 2010

The addition of Victor Maritnez was huge for Cabrera. With Cabrera hitting 4th between Magglio and Martinez it gives one of the very best RBI guys in the game the kind of lineup protection with which he could lead the AL (or all baseball). This all-Venezuelan trio hitting 3-4-5 will also free up Leyland to push with the one guy who can run at the top of the lineup (CF Austin). Last year, Austin had a red light every time Cabrera came up because leaving first base open only meant an IBB of Cabrera. That won't happen with Victor Martinez on deck. Brandon Inge is also back along with Peralta and Carlos Guillen. It's a lineup that should plate a helluva lot of runs - even if Peralta/Guillen make for a shaky defense up the middle.

When Martinez is behind the plate, Magglio can DH – but more of the every day catching will probably go to the younger Alex Avila who has a far better arm than Martinez. The downside there is Magglio will have to play in RF more often than not.

The rotation should be more than good with Verlander–Scherzer 1-2 and a competition between Porcello/Coke/Oliver/Brad Penny to fill it out. And Valverde will again close for what should be an improved bullpen with the addition of Benoit.

All in all, I think the Tigers have a shot to play in October – something they probably have to do if Leyland and Dombrowski are going to be getting their mail in Detroit in 2012.

[TheJewBear]

I wonder what Det. win total will be?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

The Contrarian Observation Tower will be moving to the West Coast annex, live from Las Vegas, Nevada. I will be shopping futures and enjoying the recreational activities that the city has to offer. Those who wish sovenirs, post me your request.

[Hebodk]

The Contrarian Observation Tower will be moving to the West Coast annex, live from Las Vegas, Nevada. I will be shopping futures and enjoying the recreational activities that the city has to offer. Those who wish sovenirs, post me your request.

Bring me a lap dance

[TheLock]

I want a poker chip from the Red Rock

[BeatingBaseball]

I wonder what Det. win total will be?

The 2011 PECOTA projections have them at only 82W-80L, only 1 W over last year's finish.

I think Vegas will peg them higher.

I have them at 86 or 87 Wins.

[lovesbaseball1]

valverde closes - not sure if you can count on anything from zumaya.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thanks for that

valverde closes - not sure if you can count on anything from zumaya.

Thanks for the correction, lb. My mistake - meant to say Valverde. Expect Benoit will set up.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Zumaya's velocity after the elbow fracture. Hard to believe he'll still be 100+ after something like that.

[jds07v]

hey guys, just spent ~45 minutes reading through all this and love it. I will definitely be following this thread. This question is for BB or 5's, whoever feels they have the best answer.

on 5Dimes, they have the option of taking the favorite at -1 at a reduce price (instead of taking a high juice ML or a RL at the risk of losing a one run game). Where would you guys put the fair price on this, and for a team with heavy public backing (Yankees, Phillies) this would cut the juice to bet on them in any particular game by quite a bit. I remember a stat last year that the yankees only won x amount of games at home by 1 run (it was a very small %)

Also, 5Dimes offers the option to buy runs on the totals. I was wondering what you though of buying .5 or 1.5 runs.
For example, say the total was set at 7.5 . If I remember correctly I could buy runs to set the total at Under 9 for -150. This essentially gives me an extra 2 runs for 40 cents more.

In these two scenarios, I'm ok with pushing (I don't think I would buy to say, 9.5) for example. I applied the same principle to spread betting. If I were to buy a half point, I would buy it from +2.5 to +3 (or take the ML), say, instead of +3 to +3.5. My goal would be to eliminate losses and turn them into pushes. I know you can't give a completely accurate answer unless you have actual lines, but this was something I have been tossing around since the WS ended

[Pair of 5s Sir]

hey guys, just spent ~45 minutes reading through all this and love it. I will definitely be following this thread. This question is for BB or 5's, whoever feels they have the best answer.

on 5Dimes, they have the option of taking the favorite at -1 at a reduce price (instead of taking a high juice ML or a RL at the risk of losing a one run game). Where would you guys put the fair price on this, and for a team with heavy public backing (Yankees, Phillies) this would cut the juice to bet on them in any particular game by quite a bit. I remember a stat last year that the yankees only won x amount of games at home by 1 run (it was a very small %)

Also, 5Dimes offers the option to buy runs on the totals. I was wondering what you though of buying .5 or 1.5 runs.
For example, say the total was set at 7.5 . If I remember correctly I could buy runs to set the total at Under 9 for -150. This essentially gives me an extra 2 runs for 40 cents more.

In these two scenarios, I'm ok with pushing (I don't think I would buy to say, 9.5) for example. I applied the same principle to spread betting. If I were to buy a half point, I would buy it from +2.5 to +3 (or take the ML), say, instead of +3 to +3.5. My goal would be to eliminate losses and turn them into pushes. I know you can't give a completely accurate answer unless you have actual lines, but this was something I have been tossing around since the WS ended

Welcome JD, to the Contrarian Observation Tower, your excitement is flattering. I will leave the assignment for BB, he is the mathematician emeritus in the Tower.

[BeatingBaseball]

jds07v:
"on 5Dimes, they have the option of taking the favorite at -1 at a reduce price (instead of taking a high juice ML or a RL at the risk of losing a one run game). Where would you guys put the fair price on this (?)"

The first and biggest question, of course, is always whether there is any value at all in the fav on either the ML or the RL to begin with - but setting that aside - let's go with your -1 question.

The -1 Run proposition is simply a pure mathematical derivative of the ML and RL prices. Pro baseball bettors have been creating the -1 bet for themselves long before any book offered it as a separate bet. You do it by placing a ML bet on that big chalk that if won would exactly cancel out a loss on a RL bet you place on them at the same time. There are calculators to balance the fractions of your total bet to place on each wager so you come out with an overall push if your fav wins by exactly 1 run and will turn you a profit (albeit of course less than the pure RL price) if your fav covers the RL. One such calculator is offered by "The Overround" at:

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167

We can run through the example below - but the basic answer to your first question is that the price of the -1 bet should be no more than the cost for which you could set it up yourself using the ML and RL calculation.

Let's say the Yanks are a big -233 ML home fav but happen to be even money on the RL. Assuming you want to win $100 on them, but don't want to lay the $233, you could lay $116.50 on the ML and $50 on the RL. If the Yanks win by only 1 run - the $50 you win on the ML bet pays the $50 you lose on the RL bet so you push overall. But if the Yanks cover the RL you win your $100 ($50 on each bet) and you only had a total of $166.50 at risk rather than the $233. You in effect put down a discounted price of only -166.5 in exchange for taking the push on a possible 1 run win.

Based on the above specific example, the answer to your question as to the fair price of this -1 proposition at 5 Dimes would be -166.50. If they were offering you the Yanks -1 at -167 or longer there was no value in that offer basis their ML and RL prices.

Now - how to determine the basic value of the underlying ML and RL bets and their values relative to each other is probably more important. If you are not familiar with implied win percentage and ML to RL conversion charts we can discuss those next.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

BB, in Nevada tomorrow, the West Coast annex of the Tower will be opened. I am leaving you the keys to the east coast operations. Make sure TheLock and TheJewBear don't get too mischievous.

Great analysis on the previous post.

Beware O Contrare

[xelance]

I am not familiar with either implied win percentage or ML to RL conversion charts, and I would really appreciate it if you add that discussion. Great post BB, can't wait for the new season with the pair of 5 gang

[BeatingBaseball]

I am not familiar with either implied win percentage or ML to RL conversion charts, and I would really appreciate it if you add that discussion. Great post BB, can't wait for the new season with the pair of 5 gang

xelance -

You should start with Implied Win Percentage. It's simple, but it's really important in baseball. For right now I'll refer you to something I posted last year on some basics. It's post #185 here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/574199-beatingbaseball-2nd-half-thread-p6.html#post6075461

You might see some other posts in that thread or in last year's post season thread, "Value Play of The Day" that might be of some value to you as well:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/719039-value-play-day.html

In the next day or two we can address some things re ML to RL conversions.

[mebaran]

Great post on Implied Win %. You absolutely need that for baseball.

[BeatingBaseball]

Great post on Implied Win %. You absolutely need that for baseball.

You sure do.

Every price, whether you are laying it or taking it, implies its own win %.

And prices can only be truly appreciated thru their implied win % because that's the % you have to hit to break even.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Airbound boys, speak to you later, from Sin City.

[TheJewBear]

Bring me back a donkey's look of disgust from calling you with a set

[BeatingBaseball]

Airbound boys, speak to you later, from Sin City.

A word of caution:
Please be prudent - although I of course have no personal experience with such things - I hear rumors of evil and godless activities which take place there.

Have a great trip, 5's.

Say hello to all my iniquitous companions you know where - and for the Italian meal of your life go to Il Mulino.

[jds07v]

Thanks BB,

I am familiar with the implied win percentage, but I too would be interested in the ML to RL conversion.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

The Contrarian Tower is now airborne. Wifi at 32,000 is great. See you on the strip

[BeatingBaseball]

RLs and ML to RL Conversions

I remember a stat last year that the yankees only won x amount of games at home by 1 run (it was a very small %)

You’re right, jds. Some clubs just have a knack for covering RLs. Last year - the Yanks at home and the Jays overall (largely due to all the long balls they clubbed) were about the best RL covers in the game.

Like the -1 Run proposition that you asked about – the standard RL (1.5) itself is a derivative. It derives from the ML – but it is not as pure and simple a mathematical derivative as the -1 price which came solely and directly from the ML and Run Line prices. Calculating a fair RL only starts with the ML – then other variables apply.

Before we get into figuring a fair RL from a ML, everyone should make sure they have that implied win % thing down. Remember that implied win % = Total Amt at Risk divided by (Total Amt at Risk + Potential Gain). So -180 implies a win % or win expectation of 64.29% (180/280). You know this means that you need to win a -180 bet at that rate to break even and you know that you can calculate a corresponding implied win % and break even % for any price you want to plug in. (-136, for example, gives you a 57.63% break even %).

Now let’s assume you’ve done your basic handicapping on a matchup and figured the percentage chance which you believe your fav (or dog) has of winning the game. You’ve compared that to the win % implied by the price you can lay (or take) on the best available ML and found that your estimated win % exceeds the implied win % of the ML. The ML thus looks good to you (has value) - but you wonder if the RL proposition might be even better (hold more value).

The easiest way to make a value comparison between a ML and a RL is to use a ML to RL conversion chart or calculator that will give you an equivalent RL price and you can see how that stacks up against the RL being offered. The main thing there is you have to use a really good conversion chart or calculator that considers all the variables. Some out there fail to do so.

Another approach is, by considering a few logical factors about baseball overall and the given matchup specifically, you can try to come up with a fair, equivalent RL price for any specific ML price by yourself. And it’s not a bad idea to do that once in a while. It's certainly not as quick - but it can sometimes be more accurate – and it will definitely give you a better understanding of the general RL dynamic.

Converting a ML price to a fair, equivalent RL price hinges on only one big question: “what is the % chance of my fav winning by exactly 1 run? (or my dog losing by exactly 1 run?)." The reason that is the big question should be obvious. The 1 run decision for the fav is the killer outcome if you lay the 1.5 and the bonus outcome if you take the dog. When you have the answer to that big question you simply deduct that % from the implied win % of the fav’s ML (or add it in the case of the dog) and then flip that new implied win % back to an equivalent dollar price. Although the answer to the big question can never be more than an estimate – the estimate can be a pretty good one if you give it a little thought. It’s a function of only a few factors. And these are the basic ones I keep in mind:

By far the majority of MLB games are settled by MORE than 1 run.

About 70% (actually 71%) of all MLB games are won by 2 runs or more.

Thus only about 30% (actually 29%) of all MLB games are won by a single run.

Home teams, of course, win more 1 Run games than road teams.

About 62% of the 1 run games in MLB are won by the home team.

Only 38% of the 1 run games are won by the road team.

You can thus see you have a 63% better chance of running into the dreaded 1 run victory with the average home fav than with the average road fav - and you can expect that difference to be reflected in the price.

Another factor in covering RLs is the total scoring in the game. It’s obviously easier to win by 2 in a game in which the total scoring is 12 runs than in a low scoring contest where you might see less than 6 runs all day. So the lower the total the less likely a RL cover. You would thus expect that the same -140 home fav should draw a more attractive RL price if the total is 6.5 than if the total is 9 or 10.

Also keep in mind one common misconception re RL covers. It is a mistake to think that the highest priced favs don’t figure to win as many 1 run games since they should be blowing out the opposition. That thinking is a counterintuitive trap due to the fact that the first requisite for winning a game by 1 run is simply winning the game at all. And big favorites generally win more games – including more 1 run games. You have to remember that your great big favorite is just trying to win. They don’t care how many they win by. And to make matters worse, the biggest favorites are usually playing at home - the opposition is thus getting a full 9 innings to hit and your big fav does not plan on hitting in the 9th - and if it comes down to them doing so you are just about drawing dead because, barring a walk-off bomb with men on base, the first run they plate to take the lead will end it in a 1 run decision.

The good news is that - in consideration of all the above factors - quality ML to RL conversion charts have been created. They are what the books themselves use to come up with opening RL prices. These quality charts, based on years of data, can give you the fair value of a RL basis any given ML and game total. You might then want to tweak it for any specific idiosyncrasies you identify in the matchup (such as bad bullpens - I find that opposition dogs' bad bullpens are RL cover friendly for favs and not conducive to 1 run decisions). But as I said – be careful with the conversion chart or calculator you use - there are some bad ones out there that don’t even factor in the game total.

One of the better ML to RL conversion charts I’ve seen appears in the book Conquering Risk by Feustel(Justin7)/Howard and which is available in the SBR store. The book also has a lot of solid, basic information on handicapping in general.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Any info on books posting season wins total.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Heading down to Vegas tomorrow. YES

[BeatingBaseball]

Heading down to Vegas tomorrow. YES

5's -

I've been in Big Ten country the last few weeks, but will be arriving back in Fun Town tonight.

If you're hanging around awhile, we can share a couple brewskis.

As you know - always important to stay hydrated - first rule of the desert.

BB

[mlb]

Any info on books posting season wins total.

not yet .. hoping soon tho

[TheLock]

We need an update from the mobile observation tower.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

In the car to Vegas, will arrive in 2 hours.

[xelance]

for those that like the Astros this year, nice line on bookmaker for season win totals...over 74 wins at EV money. Get it!

Oakland is over 82 wins at -130...seems other people like them this year as well.

other notable plays: Diamondbacks Over 71.5 wins at EV money

my padres are Over/under 75.5 wins at -115 money...wish it would go to even, but I think I will jump on it

[xelance]

not yet .. hoping soon tho

bookmaker has all season win totals posted!

[BeatingBaseball]

bookmaker has all season win totals posted!

Philly 96.5 and Red Sox only 1 game off that at 95.5 both juiced to the OV at -125

http://www.bookmaker.com/live-lines/baseball/mlb-regular-season-wins

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Welcome back boys, Vegas was good for the pocket. Sports and poker yielded positive. I see that some of the books are coming out with the season wins totals. The Philly 96.5 is a big surprise. The balls of the squares are clanging with an over play there.

I usually don't play season wins on teams that I do not have a prop on. What I try to accomplish is to wager the amount of money that I have tied up in the future props, so if my team total wins, I recoup all my investment. The fact that I won't be playing Philly in the futures, would make their total, a no play.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Over Astros 74 is looking sweet. Contrarian baby!

[BeatingBaseball]

Over Astros 74 is looking sweet. Contrarian baby!

Cautionary note: It's probably a long shot, but the Yanks are desperate to make a deal for a starter after the huge hole in their rotation left by the retirement of Andy Pettitte and they have been burning up the phones calling every club and offering hard to refuse deals (prospects and cash). They prefer a LHer and one of the names I've heard they're chasing is Wandy Rodriguez. As I say, it's probably a long shot - esp since Drayton McLane is trying to sell the club and wants to have a decent year - but it's not impossible.

Other LHers the Yankees covet are - Mark Buehrle, Joe Saunders, Clayton Richard, Gio Gonzalez and even Scott Kazmir.

They've also offered deals on some RHers - Cards' Carpenter, Clev's Carmona and Phils' Blanton.

I'd say they are going to land somebody before opening day. Going with CC, Hughes, AJ, Brackman, Nova and Mitre is just not going to cut it vs this year's Red Sox club.

[mebaran]

Cautionary note: It's probably a long shot, but the Yanks are desperate to make a deal for a starter after the huge hole in their rotation left by the retirement of Andy Pettitte and they have been burning up the phones calling every club and offering hard to refuse deals (prospects and cash). They prefer a LHer and one of the names I've heard they're chasing is Wandy Rodriguez. As I say, it's probably a long shot - esp since Drayton McLane is trying to sell the club and wants to have a decent year - but it's not impossible.

Other LHers the Yankees covet are - Mark Buehrle, Joe Saunders, Clayton Richard, Gio Gonzalez and even Scott Kazmir.

They've also offered deals on some RHers - Cards' Carpenter, Clev's Carmona and Phils' Blanton.

I'd say they are going to land somebody before opening day. Going with CC, Hughes, AJ, Brackman, Nova and Mitre is just not going to cut it vs this year's Red Sox club.

Good point. Their bullpen is top notch, but the rubberarms aren't too hot looking this year. If old George Steinbrenner were still alive and in charge, you could bet your house that they would already have picked up Wandy