Reverend's 2010 MLB

[reverend]

Thursday May 6:


Series System:

A Bet: Twins (ML) Risking 3.15 Units to Win 1.5 Units

C Bet: Dodgers (?) Currently down 7.95 Units on the Series (Played C Bet to breakeven)


Situational System:

C Bet: Cubs (ML) Risking 11.2 Units to Win 6.82 Units (2 Units Profit)


FAV System:

A Bet: Phillies (-1 RL) Risking X Units to Win 2 Units


*I am still undecided on the Dodgers C bet. If I do play it, it will be to either win back my losses only or possibly win back half my losses. I will try and post before gametime.
*I really favor the Cubs today, and love the Twins series with their pitching match-ups

Chase Systems: 2-1 (-14 Units)

Pending Chases: 1


*B Bet on the Twins for Friday

[reverend]

Brief Analysis:

We have had 3 C bet losses in a short period of time after starting the season perfectly.

The Series System has suffered 1 loss which was on Houston. As has been discussed, Houston was a "reach" and truly fell out of the parameters of my system. But after 55 straight wins in 2-3 weeks, I got loose with my selection. So Houston should not have been a play. Filters are tightened back up, and we are moving forward with the Series System!

The FAV System is a perfect 14-0 (+19 Units) on the year. This is a strong system that has proven over the years to provide a steady income to your bankroll. No changes needed here. Just more wins to come. The last 3 years have averaged around 85 wins each year.

The Situational System has been a huge disappointment. In the bigger picture, it was only meant to play a few number of series through the season that were top notch opportunities. But after the hot start, I loosened some of the filters to have this system spit out more plays. We see the results. 2 C bet losses in the last week with the Cubs and Boston. I am reverting this system back to its original settings, which will filter out almost every game that is put in. We will have some of these plays going forward, but there will be not near as many.

So in recap:
It have been a horrible run lately! But, I have faith in these systems, and will be pressing on. We have alot more baseball to play, and we WILL be up at the end of the season. I know many have joined on late, but the truth is my 3 systems are up 53.2 Units over the first month of baseball. So, it is profitable and we will continue to win!

[dogs1972]

Rev maybe review my thread... My money management plan is proven over the long run...make some small adjustments... even if it is the same I have no problem... I have laid out several good strategies and a money management style that would work here too seeing it is also a chase. I know my system has only had one loss...but your system would absorb the losses a ton better that you are having... GL guys until your risk becomes a lot less most of you will continue to panic, whine and lose a lot of money using chase systems...sorry to have to tell the truth... money management and the thoughts of winning to much money need to go out the window... Slow down re evaluate money management and please take a look at my recent post...today on how to have a set amount of risk each series...no million dollar dreams but a much safer set up.

Guys chases can only work if you are extremely patient and realize as I have been saying losses do happen... money management is #1 not picking a winner each series...that should happen most of the time...

I see you had another big "C' series loss on the cubs but decided to do something completely different on the dodgers...the money management needs to be the same for each series...everything needs to match up...you are picking and choosing...if you had used the exact money management on the cubs and dodgers you would have been in better shape today...

GL working out the money management end...

Among others posts #1, and #813 in my thread should end most of the doom and gloom in here and get you guys back on track.

G, dude. I think we hear u loud and clear on the money management aspect of betting, u post on it often. Here's the thing...in any chase system there are times when u are risking an extreme amount of $ to recover ur A, B and sometimes C bets plus ur unit. The reason guys will chase even laying those huge amounts is real simple.....these chases are RARELY suppose to lose. A chase system is a system that o's designed to offset the sometime huge positions by the fact that the odds are highly in ur favor to NOT LOSE. If ur going to limit ur risk and baby step thru ur series play what's the point? In a chase ur suppose to trust the system and take emotion out of it, play the C's so that you can be rewarded for the risks u have to take. Personally, i've followed u and Rev since jumpstreet and I've had my ASS handed to me with a years worth of series losses in a week. I'm not saying that's ur or Revs fault, Ya'll don't play for the Cubs. But we chase and risk because a loss is suppose to be a rare thing. Not something u should be worrying about everytime you make a A bets. Keep the money management and let's just pick some freaking winners. If not, it's not worth it to chase. IMO.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

[reverend]

Friday May 7:


Series System:

B Bet: Twins (ML) Risking 10.65 Units to Win 4.65 Units (1.5 Unit Profit)


Situational System:

A Bet: Cardinals (ML) Risking 3.15 Units to Win 1.5 Units


FAV System:

A Bet: Cardinals (-1 RL) Risking X to Win 2 Units


*Tampa/Oakland is a Situational Series that is not official due to my new filter changes, but I do like this series.

[balls2wall]

B 2 Wall,

Good points made... I look at the current size of my roll and decide what percentage to risk on each series and then divide that amount by 3 evenly spread over say 3 games... so I may not be doubling up on a chase in some cases because the odds suck and the cost is too prohibitive...just making a bet to get some of my money back if I still believe in my pick for the series.

My personal goal is to steadily grow and not go broke in the process..because "there's always tomorrow"...if your bankroll is intact!

I think that is a very good approach. I have done the same on some series.


I am letting it ride on the MIN series though with one of the top teams against the worst.

[balls2wall]

The Situational System has been a huge disappointment. In the bigger picture, it was only meant to play a few number of series through the season that were top notch opportunities. But after the hot start, I loosened some of the filters to have this system spit out more plays. We see the results. 2 C bet losses in the last week with the Cubs and Boston. I am reverting this system back to its original settings, which will filter out almost every game that is put in. We will have some of these plays going forward, but there will be not near as many.

I am in the same boat. It is hard not to get carried away and force too many plays when things are going so well. One tends to get a false sense of security.


Let's tighten things up a bit from here on out and kill it

[GGPLAYER]

THank you for all your work and postings Rev. Any comments I have posted have either come out of frustration with losing or a thought I might have had to help with future series. I like your plays today and I'm sure you will provide a good foundation for us to win going forward. In the end I'm responsible for my own actions and if I listened to myself I would have skipped the Cubs series. But that is the past and all I can do is press on and learn from this. Thanks again your a class act

[doubledime]

THank you for all your work and postings Rev. Any comments I have posted have either come out of frustration with losing or a thought I might have had to help with future series. I like your plays today and I'm sure you will provide a good foundation for us to win going forward. In the end I'm responsible for my own actions and if I listened to myself I would have skipped the Cubs series. But that is the past and all I can do is press on and learn from this. Thanks again your a class act

DITTO

[arizona40]

Very well said!!!!!

[G's pks]

G, dude. I think we hear u loud and clear on the money management aspect of betting, u post on it often. Here's the thing...in any chase system there are times when u are risking an extreme amount of $ to recover ur A, B and sometimes C bets plus ur unit. The reason guys will chase even laying those huge amounts is real simple.....these chases are RARELY suppose to lose. A chase system is a system that o's designed to offset the sometime huge positions by the fact that the odds are highly in ur favor to NOT LOSE. If ur going to limit ur risk and baby step thru ur series play what's the point? In a chase ur suppose to trust the system and take emotion out of it, play the C's so that you can be rewarded for the risks u have to take. Personally, i've followed u and Rev since jumpstreet and I've had my ASS handed to me with a years worth of series losses in a week. I'm not saying that's ur or Revs fault, Ya'll don't play for the Cubs. But we chase and risk because a loss is suppose to be a rare thing. Not something u should be worrying about everytime you make a A bets. Keep the money management and let's just pick some freaking winners. If not, it's not worth it to chase. IMO.

that says it all...improper money management... my system up to now has one loss... revs has a few with proper money management you should be way up! Especially if you have been in since the start...

we are concentrating on winning but everytime an "A" bet does not hit everyone wants to jump ship! If that is the case chasing is not for them! Also if you have a years worth of losses in a week than instead of knocking my money management imagine being easily up...also rev is easily up meaning if you have been following the whole time you are doing something wrong...ok back to my filters...finished first level...


also if you are losing...you are not following these systems properly...

There is not a person in either of these threads that want anyone to lose...at least I hope not...

whether talking in this thread or mine we all need to be supportive of each other... The rev and i have several plays the same and rare if ever using the systems in place are we on the opposite sides...


GL with your plays obviously with a years worth of losses hopefully you adjust and come back will be rooting for you...

[GGPLAYER]

I have one concern/question for tonights StL game. The line opened on Pinny at -230 and has fallen all the way to -179. It seems that every time I see this it's a red flag. It happened last night with Minn opened at -229 and fell to -187 at one point. Has there been a major line-up change with the Cards tonight or is the public overvaluing Pitt now that they had a sweep and thinking the Cards are down losing 3 in a row. Just too big of a line move not to ask. Rev, G, etc any comments? I know we're betting a series not a single game but I just don't want to get into another "intense" situation.

[G's pks]

GL today Rev lets all have a good weekend...working on my plays now...

[BillAccpetor]

The problem here is that you can't simply "jump" into this system. If the guys start into a losing streak they are f... up, because they lost big due the killed c-bets... Moneymangement and dicipline are the keys to get out of the system as a
winner... 2% of bankroll to win an A-bet.

[G's pks]

I have one concern/question for tonights StL game. The line opened on Pinny at -230 and has fallen all the way to -179. It seems that every time I see this it's a red flag. It happened last night with Minn opened at -229 and fell to -187 at one point. Has there been a major line-up change with the Cards tonight or is the public overvaluing Pitt now that they had a sweep and thinking the Cards are down losing 3 in a row. Just too big of a line move not to ask. Rev, G, etc any comments? I know we're betting a series not a single game but I just don't want to get into another "intense" situation.

I have not been posting my road system but the Cards did pass the first set of filters working on the second set now... I have not even looked at pitching match ups or run my momentum filters so someone else may have spotted something...

[Manaconda]

i'm hearing the twins game will be postponed till tomorrow due to rain

[reverend]

i'm hearing the twins game will be postponed till tomorrow due to rain

Twins game has been postponed

[reverend]

I have one concern/question for tonights StL game. The line opened on Pinny at -230 and has fallen all the way to -179. It seems that every time I see this it's a red flag. It happened last night with Minn opened at -229 and fell to -187 at one point. Has there been a major line-up change with the Cards tonight or is the public overvaluing Pitt now that they had a sweep and thinking the Cards are down losing 3 in a row. Just too big of a line move not to ask. Rev, G, etc any comments? I know we're betting a series not a single game but I just don't want to get into another "intense" situation.

You raise a valid point. I try to not let line movement affect my thinking, but when there is drastic line movement, I do take notice. I would consider 50 points pretty drastic line movement. I am questioning this movement as well. The game is tonight, so there are no lineups posted yet, so it must be due to opinions right now. I will say this: if you are concerned about it, then just lay off of the game. If you miss a win tonight, no biggie. If you have already placed your bet, and are still concerned, then just bet on Pit and lose the juice. The Cards have both Carp and Wain going in this series...so I am not concerned about winning 1 game. But, like you said, it is never fun to lose an A bet with high juice and have to sweat out a B or C bet.

[JVP3122]

You raise a valid point. I try to not let line movement affect my thinking, but when there is drastic line movement, I do take notice. I would consider 50 points pretty drastic line movement. I am questioning this movement as well. The game is tonight, so there are no lineups posted yet, so it must be due to opinions right now. I will say this: if you are concerned about it, then just lay off of the game. If you miss a win tonight, no biggie. If you have already placed your bet, and are still concerned, then just bet on Pit and lose the juice. The Cards have both Carp and Wain going in this series...so I am not concerned about winning 1 game. But, like you said, it is never fun to lose an A bet with high juice and have to sweat out a B or C bet.

Just my two cents: I'd look at this line movement as a blessing. If I hadn't gotten on the Cards back when they were -230 I'd be all over it now. Look at the game preview at si.com about tonight's game. There is nothing to suggest I would want to do anything but play the Cards tonight, and having seen movement of that much just makes the Cards that much of a better value. Carpenter at -180? Thank you very much bookmakers. Like Rev said, if they somehow lose tonight you've still got Wainwright pitching on Sunday and Garcia pitching tomorrow sporting a 1.13 ERA. I'm only on this series for 1 unit, but now that the line has moved this much I might add on a second unit with the Twins game postponed.

[dogs1972]

[QUOTE=G's pks;4439737]that says it all...improper money management... my system up to now has one loss... revs has a few with proper money management you should be way up! Especially if you have been in since the start...

we are concentrating on winning but everytime an "A" bet does not hit everyone wants to jump ship! If that is the case chasing is not for them! Also if you have a years worth of losses in a week than instead of knocking my money management imagine being easily up...also rev is easily up meaning if you have been following the whole time you are doing something wrong...ok back to my filters...finished first level...


also if you are losing...you are not following these systems properly...

There is not a person in either of these threads that want anyone to lose...at least I hope not...

whether talking in this thread or mine we all need to be supportive of each other... The rev and i have several plays the same and rare if ever using the systems in place are we on the opposite sides...


GL with your plays obviously with a years worth of losses hopefully you adjust and come back will be rooting for you...[/QUOTE

G..I say a years worth of losses in a week because I have a service that I've paid for the last 3 years that produces 120+ series chases and has never had more than 3 losses. So taking 4-5 in a week is a contrast. I am able to play those series fearlessly and I don't worry about money management. I appreciate ur encouragement and hardwork. for the sake of everybodies bankroll, I wish u the best of luck in picking.

[DaBA]

Rev how in the world could the Boston chase playing the Os been eliminated by a filter?

[doubledime]

[quote=dogs1972;4441847]

that says it all...improper money management... my system up to now has one loss... revs has a few with proper money management you should be way up! Especially if you have been in since the start...

we are concentrating on winning but everytime an "A" bet does not hit everyone wants to jump ship! If that is the case chasing is not for them! Also if you have a years worth of losses in a week than instead of knocking my money management imagine being easily up...also rev is easily up meaning if you have been following the whole time you are doing something wrong...ok back to my filters...finished first level...


also if you are losing...you are not following these systems properly...

There is not a person in either of these threads that want anyone to lose...at least I hope not...

whether talking in this thread or mine we all need to be supportive of each other... The rev and i have several plays the same and rare if ever using the systems in place are we on the opposite sides...


GL with your plays obviously with a years worth of losses hopefully you adjust and come back will be rooting for you...[/QUOTE

G..I say a years worth of losses in a week because I have a service that I've paid for the last 3 years that produces 120+ series chases and has never had more than 3 losses. So taking 4-5 in a week is a contrast. I am able to play those series fearlessly and I don't worry about money management. I appreciate ur encouragement and hardwork. for the sake of everybodies bankroll, I wish u the best of luck in picking.

Dog, what is the name of that service?

[reverend]

Rev how in the world could the Boston chase playing the Os been eliminated by a filter?

Very easily. RPI filter. Boston is not a great team right now. The Situational System is based on playing the top tier teams when they are on the road against the lowest tier teams. Boston is in no way a top tier team this season, and that has been evident from week 1. Hope that helps...

[press coverage]

I have one concern/question for tonights StL game. The line opened on Pinny at -230 and has fallen all the way to -179. It seems that every time I see this it's a red flag. It happened last night with Minn opened at -229 and fell to -187 at one point. Has there been a major line-up change with the Cards tonight or is the public overvaluing Pitt now that they had a sweep and thinking the Cards are down losing 3 in a row. Just too big of a line move not to ask. Rev, G, etc any comments? I know we're betting a series not a single game but I just don't want to get into another "intense" situation.

I just ran some #'s and since the start of last season, road fav's with a > than 18% reverse line movement are 12-8 +$65 for the $100 bettor.

The Cards would qualify for this tonight.

Not sure how relevant this is since the sample is so small, but figured that it might be useful for some of you in making your decision.

PC

[bigmonay]

I just ran some #'s and since the start of last season, road fav's with a > than 18% reverse line movement are 12-8 +$65 for the $100 bettor.

The Cards would qualify for this tonight.

Not sure how relevant this is since the sample is so small, but figured that it might be useful for some of you in making your decision.

PC

How did u get your data ... it is very interesting . just curious what u did to compile it?

[youngerthree]

Thanks for all of your continued work and analysis! Looking forward to the new filters only playing series that we should win!

[Jordan23]

Well today wasn't a bad day. I hope we keep up the good work.. The good thing about the baseball season is that it is long! And there are a lot of games played.. more games means more money. Good luck everyone!

[reverend]

Friday May 7:


Series System:

B Bet: Twins (ML) Risking 10.65 Units to Win 4.65 Units (1.5 Unit Profit)


Situational System:

A Bet: Cardinals (ML) Risking 3.15 Units to Win 1.5 Units


FAV System:

A Bet: Cardinals (-1 RL) Risking X to Win 2 Units


*Tampa/Oakland is a Situational Series that is not official due to my new filter changes, but I do like this series.

Friday May 8:


Chase Systems: 2-0 (+3.5 Units)

Pending Chases: 1

[reverend]

Nice win for us tonight with the Cards. I truly feel like today was a big turning point. Lets clean up tomorrow with Liriano and the Twins! I am still waiting to see the lines for the Twins games tomorrow.

[egr99]

Very easily. RPI filter. Boston is not a great team right now. The Situational System is based on playing the top tier teams when they are on the road against the lowest tier teams. Boston is in no way a top tier team this season, and that has been evident from week 1. Hope that helps...

Not here to cause trouble REV, but that loss and RPI filter would not make any difference.

BOSTON was coming off a road series where they swept TORONTO 3 games straight.

BOSTON was -170 to win series versus Baltimore. In essence favorites of -170 to win 2 out of 3.

BOSTON RPI #11 0.511 and BALTIMORE RPI #29 0.440

The RPI definatly favored BOSTON no matter how you look at it, and at the time coming off a sweep of Toronto with the addition of the -170 favored to win the series Boston was a good play.

Don't get me wrong I am not blaming or anything. I lost on BOSTON too because it fell into one of my own systems but the RPI would not have saved this sweep.

The last 2 weeks have been HORRIBLE with 5 chases losses myself but I am not worried.

I would be wary of playing the JM systems this year though, too many sweeps which will create too many plays so chance of losses will be much higher.

egr99

[dynamitappletini]

Friday May 8:


Chase Systems: 2-0 (+3.5 Units)

Pending Chases: 1

sorry Rev but how did you win 3,5 units? I see the 1.5 units for the Situational Cards A bet, but wasn't the Cards -1 RL a push? I thought it was 4-3?
Or am I missing a game?

Thanks for the great work and let's clear it up with Twins tonight

[rgbraves]

Lets go twins

[doublej95]

The Red Sox's/O's system series was a good play at the time and it was no fault on Rev's part to pick and play the series. In Baseball anything can happen and it did in that series. Boston had late leads and their bullpen gave it away and costly errors did not help. Boston gave the O's 2 games and one can agree that they game them all three games if you actullay watched the games. Rev can not be held to blame for bad luck and poor playing by the Red Sox's.

[JVP3122]

The Red Sox's/O's system series was a good play at the time and it was no fault on Rev's part to pick and play the series. In Baseball anything can happen and it did in that series. Boston had late leads and their bullpen gave it away and costly errors did not help. Boston gave the O's 2 games and one can agree that they game them all three games if you actullay watched the games. Rev can not be held to blame for bad luck and poor playing by the Red Sox's.

No he can't, but hopefully he learned from the series against the Orioles to not have the Red Sox as a system play any time soon, no matter who they're playing.

[G's pks]

sorry Rev but how did you win 3,5 units? I see the 1.5 units for the Situational Cards A bet, but wasn't the Cards -1 RL a push? I thought it was 4-3?
Or am I missing a game?

Thanks for the great work and let's clear it up with Twins tonight

Possibly an error.. still a good job Rev...

I hit on the Phillies and Cards in my system both ML and that is it for the week for me keep up the good work... Hopefully the Twins cash for you guys...