Reverend's 2010 MLB

**Salmon Steak** · 05-06-10, 08:34 PM

I got screwed on cubs too

I'm curious how you select teams for the chase. Home teams have won 55.7% (home dogs 46.3% 64-74)(home favs 60.5% 167-109) ytd. Do you take the favs everytime home or away? Might win at a higher % and avoid the juice later on if you play the home teams.

**QUEST001** · 05-06-10, 08:45 PM

GL Rev on LAD big...

**df1000** · 05-06-10, 08:59 PM

hi i just joined too bad about the cubs

**NastyStuff** · 05-06-10, 09:42 PM

Boy oh boy!!....When you're running cold gambling...they like to kick you twice as hard when you are down... I went with the cubs, twins and even my sharks pick got pounded by the wings!...what a "trifecta" for the evening...oh well....there's always tomorrow!

**dogs1972** · 05-06-10, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by df1000

hi i just joined too bad about the cubs

yeah, too bad about the Cubs, the dodgers, the astros, Seattle and Boston. Wow! I'm sorry to be so negative, but Jesus Christ, for the life of me, I can't find anything to be positive about. I was hoping it was gonna be the -200 Twins, but nope..talk about 4-5 HIGH juice series freaking murdering a BR.

**daneault23** · 05-06-10, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

Hey guys... I know this is COMPLETELY off topic.. but I thought it may be helpful for some of you.. i know im goin big on it..

NBA 2nd ROUND:

Since the NBA expnded the first round to a best of 7 in 2003, it has changed the landscape in round 2. This is a 100% chase system, that has only one time even gone to a game 3 in the 7 years.

PLAY OVER FOR 1 UNIT IN EVERY GAME IN ROUND 2 OF THE NBA PLAYOFFS. IF YOU WIN, THAT SERIES IS COMPLETE WITH 1 UNIT OF PROFIT. IF IT LOSES YOU CHASE BY WAGERING AN AMOUNT THAT WHEN YOU WIN NETS 1 UNIT OF PROFIT, AND AFTER A WIN THE SERIES CHASE IS OVER.

SINCE EXPANSION OF ROUND 1:

28-0 +28 units

THE RESULTS TABLE:

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 1: 12 of 28 times: 42.9%

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 2: 27 of 28 times: 96.4%

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 3: 28 of 28 times: 100.0%

NEVER HAS THERE BEEN A NEED TO GO AS FAR AS EVEN A GAME 4!

THE TOTAL IS UP TO 31-0 NOW WITH ONLY ONE SERIES PENDING: TONIGHT HAWKS/MAGIC OVER... GOOD LUCK!!

Another win tonight!! So do we play the first game tomorrow for OVER too?? And if that loses play the next game over tomorrow?

Lookin good though.

**JW Cash** · 05-06-10, 09:52 PM

Won my Toronto wager......from another system.......

**Jordan23** · 05-06-10, 09:53 PM

This is crazy!!!!!!

**JW Cash** · 05-06-10, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

Hey guys... I know this is COMPLETELY off topic.. but I thought it may be helpful for some of you.. i know im goin big on it..

NBA 2nd ROUND:

Since the NBA expnded the first round to a best of 7 in 2003, it has changed the landscape in round 2. This is a 100% chase system, that has only one time even gone to a game 3 in the 7 years.

PLAY OVER FOR 1 UNIT IN EVERY GAME IN ROUND 2 OF THE NBA PLAYOFFS. IF YOU WIN, THAT SERIES IS COMPLETE WITH 1 UNIT OF PROFIT. IF IT LOSES YOU CHASE BY WAGERING AN AMOUNT THAT WHEN YOU WIN NETS 1 UNIT OF PROFIT, AND AFTER A WIN THE SERIES CHASE IS OVER.

SINCE EXPANSION OF ROUND 1:

28-0 +28 units

THE RESULTS TABLE:

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 1: 12 of 28 times: 42.9%

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 2: 27 of 28 times: 96.4%

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 3: 28 of 28 times: 100.0%

NEVER HAS THERE BEEN A NEED TO GO AS FAR AS EVEN A GAME 4!

THE TOTAL IS UP TO 31-0 NOW WITH ONLY ONE SERIES PENDING: TONIGHT HAWKS/MAGIC OVER... GOOD LUCK!!

So....did you see my Stanley Cup playoff system in the Hockey threads that has NEVER lost......

You get 18 Units of solid profit every playoff season

12 Units of profit already in the bank !!!!!

Ciao

**tbill11** · 05-06-10, 10:01 PM

By all logical and mathematical means, the Pirates should be losing more games. And they aren't. God the Cubs suck.

**Puda** · 05-06-10, 10:06 PM

The Cubs made me sick tonite... geez...

**DEGENR8** · 05-06-10, 10:37 PM

pour it on tampa, kick some mariner ass!

just trying to makup the atl loss

**TNT28** · 05-06-10, 10:38 PM

The Dodgers pitcher, Ely is having a really good game right now Rev. Really need this bet tonight. I'm also thinking that we really need to look at betting on the Rays and Yankees A LOT more. I'm actually playing them pretty much every day now and not chasing if they lose. I just bet to win $200 and if they lose just bet to win the same thing again. I've got the roll to do that of course cuz that's only about 2% of my roll. I'm not sure about the Yankees but I know for sure the Rays haven't lost more than 2 in a row all year. I'm on them tonight and you can see how the game is going. We can get through this rough patch guys...I know it.

**DEGENR8** · 05-06-10, 10:39 PM

need mil/los to come in under 9 1/2

an will be a good night!

**TNT28** · 05-07-10, 12:26 AM

And the Dodgers are trying to blow it for us

**JW Cash** · 05-07-10, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by DEGENR8

need mil/los to come in under 9 1/2

an will be a good night!

Sorry about your Under in the game.....

you had it till the last pitch.....

thats tough bananas...

**diegoelmestre** · 05-07-10, 12:43 AM

yehhh DODGERS WIN!!

**Manaconda** · 05-07-10, 12:44 AM

wow nice way to end the night!

**JW Cash** · 05-07-10, 12:45 AM

Nice way to end the nite Rev.....I got both the ML and RL on one pitch.....

wish they were all this easy....

**theMARTY** · 05-07-10, 12:48 AM

Have to earn it son, nothing is easy.

**TNT28** · 05-07-10, 12:50 AM

If the time has come for us to break outta this funk we've been in lately...a grand slam walk off win is definitely the way to start it off.

**Betting Guru** · 05-07-10, 01:42 AM

way to go rev!

**dynamitappletini** · 05-07-10, 05:04 AM

sounds just like me... C bet on Cubs and faded Dodgers... went to bed before everybody was jumping on the Dodgers, but what the hell. Good for you guys!

**egr99** · 05-07-10, 06:56 AM

Seems like alot of sweeps this year or just bad timing/selection by me.

Started tracking after the first series of the year for each team.

I got 119 series with:
19 Home teams sweeping the road team.
14 Away teams sweeping the home team.

Out of the MON/TUE series of this current week, 3 home teams were swept and 4 road teams were swept. 7 out of 15 seems pretty high.

119/33 = 3.61 roughly... So 1 in 3.61 series have been a sweep.

The CUBS were listed at -180 to win the series BTW...

**GGPLAYER** · 05-07-10, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by dogs1972

yeah, too bad about the Cubs, the dodgers, the astros, Seattle and Boston. Wow! I'm sorry to be so negative, but Jesus Christ, for the life of me, I can't find anything to be positive about. I was hoping it was gonna be the -200 Twins, but nope..talk about 4-5 HIGH juice series freaking murdering a BR.

It's actually almost amazing how some things work out. I missed the Phily bet and threw it all on Cubs for my C bet and then I went a little bigger on the Minn A bet to cover my loses on the LAD C bet which I skipped! So as you can see I went 0-2 and dug myself a pretty deep hole. I still can't believe LAD won after the way they played the first two games. I was actually golfing when the Cubs started and did not get home in time to bet LAD if I even was going to play them. I got into the clubhouse and looked at the TV and saw it was 7-0 Pitt. I just started laughing (sarcastically). After that I just kept drinking and staring at the ticker below the basketball game waiting for Minn to score a freaking run! Really need to find a way to pick myself off the floor here and win some money. I just hate this "whatever I do is wrong" feeling. All I can say at this point is GO MINNY because I'm going to chase that all the way to poor house if I have to!

**NastyStuff** · 05-07-10, 08:37 AM

Well, it's B bet time on the Twins... anyone have any thoughts on Det to take Clev. in that series?

**df1000** · 05-07-10, 08:56 AM

good call on the dogers looking forward to todays picks

**balls2wall** · 05-07-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by dogs1972

yeah, too bad about the Cubs, the dodgers, the astros, Seattle and Boston. Wow! I'm sorry to be so negative, but Jesus Christ, for the life of me, I can't find anything to be positive about. I was hoping it was gonna be the -200 Twins, but nope..talk about 4-5 HIGH juice series freaking murdering a BR.

dogs, you have been following this thread for a while if not from the beginning

you have heard it many times

please make your own plays and use your own money management, both of which you are comfortable with

don't blindly follow these, but use them as a reference point and use your own head to make plays that you like

I lost on the Cubs too last night for a C bet, but I liked the pitching match ups in all of the games and figured they would take at least one from the lowly pirates. I played the chase because I liked it and not solely because some guy I have never met posted it on the internet.

That was my second loss of the year. It hurt, but life goes on. I have also bailed on a couple of C bets that would have won which hasn't helped me either, but again it was my decision.

The Cubs are one of those teams that we have been discussing for the past week or two that are not that good and should we really be chasing them, especially on the road.

In all of the excitement of these, I think some of us may have forgotten about the red flags raised on this issue the past two weeks.

I will also say one more time for everyone and especially the new people following, some of you are playing too much of your bank roll per unit!!!!!!!!

hang in there dogs and everyone else

**balls2wall** · 05-07-10, 09:01 AM

CONGRATS ON THE DODGERS WIN

for anyone who played that series

I was pulling for you guys. I know that would have really hurt with the CUBS loss yesterday too.

**balls2wall** · 05-07-10, 09:07 AM

One more thing to think about on how to reduce risk. This is what I did on the CUBS C bet last night and have done it once before on a C bet which won.

I used a free play for that. The down side to doing that is you don't get all the value out of your free play if it wins because of the high juice.

**NastyStuff** · 05-07-10, 09:22 AM

B 2 Wall,

Good points made... I look at the current size of my roll and decide what percentage to risk on each series and then divide that amount by 3 evenly spread over say 3 games... so I may not be doubling up on a chase in some cases because the odds suck and the cost is too prohibitive...just making a bet to get some of my money back if I still believe in my pick for the series.

My personal goal is to steadily grow and not go broke in the process..because "there's always tomorrow"...if your bankroll is intact!

**NastyStuff** · 05-07-10, 09:29 AM

B 2 Wall,

One other point...

I just use these threads to learn from (thanks again to Rev and people such as yourself)...I do my own handicapping and a lot of times get some good tips on a series that I haven't considered prior to reading posts on them...but you are right....the picks are good "heads up"...but you still have to do your "due diligence"!!

**canepole** · 05-07-10, 10:00 AM

stay out of here pick your own

**G's pks** · 05-07-10, 10:04 AM

Rev maybe review my thread... My money management plan is proven over the long run...make some small adjustments... even if it is the same I have no problem... I have laid out several good strategies and a money management style that would work here too seeing it is also a chase. I know my system has only had one loss...but your system would absorb the losses a ton better that you are having... GL guys until your risk becomes a lot less most of you will continue to panic, whine and lose a lot of money using chase systems...sorry to have to tell the truth... money management and the thoughts of winning to much money need to go out the window... Slow down re evaluate money management and please take a look at my recent post...today on how to have a set amount of risk each series...no million dollar dreams but a much safer set up.

Guys chases can only work if you are extremely patient and realize as I have been saying losses do happen... money management is #1 not picking a winner each series...that should happen most of the time...

I see you had another big "C' series loss on the cubs but decided to do something completely different on the dodgers...the money management needs to be the same for each series...everything needs to match up...you are picking and choosing...if you had used the exact money management on the cubs and dodgers you would have been in better shape today...

GL working out the money management end...

Among others posts #1, and #813 in my thread should end most of the doom and gloom in here and get you guys back on track.

**BigMoe** · 05-07-10, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by NastyStuff

B 2 Wall,

One other point...

I just use these threads to learn from (thanks again to Rev and people such as yourself)...I do my own handicapping and a lot of times get some good tips on a series that I haven't considered prior to reading posts on them...but you are right....the picks are good "heads up"...but you still have to do your "due diligence"!!

Couldn't agree more Nasty. I've tailed and lost enough now to understand you must do your own adequate due diligence with the appropriate money mangement. Me, I got lucky yesterday and had the Phils and Rays, but have been on the losing end too many times already and this is just my first year doing any type of sports wagering. As for today, I lean toward the Cards and Carpenter at Pitt and Minny to avenge last night's loss to the hapless O's. Best of luck to Rev, G and all on this thread today!