Reverend's 2010 MLB

[reverend]

First off very cool thread and system, lots of good stuff in here, I am very intrigued.

Before I ask questions I would like to give thanks to Rev - It appears that you are the man, really dig what you got going on here

I have read through a good chunk of this today while at work to get an understanding of the system and other items discussed. I have most of it figured out but I do have questions regarding the situational plays posted today.

As I understand it Situational Plays mean we are not playing the series but either part of the series or a single team over a specific number of games through 2 series.

Since I am just starting this today (which seems good since we have all A Games), I am curious if Rev states what is happening with the Situational Series up front. In other words todays Situational Games are the Yanks, Cards & Twins. Both the Yanks and Twins are in game 1 of a 3 game series. Are we playing a 1 game chase, 3 game chase, etc?

In regard to the Cards the A Game is game 2 of a 4 game series so does this become a 2 game chase?

Rev or others who follow this post, do you usually list at the beginning (A Games) how the Situational series is being approached or do you wait to see the outcome of the A game first?

Thanks for any feedback. I like that RL Calc also, if one of you put that together, much thanks

glad to have you in the thread. and good questions.

the situational system is very similar to the series system, except that it has a little more "play" in terms of the games that qualify. usually they will just be a normal series, except the team we are backing is the visitor. but there are also situations like tonight, where the cardinals passed all my filters, and I was willing to chase them for the next 3 games, although this was the 2nd game in a series. it will be a 3 game chase, unless i note otherwise.

let me know if you have any others questions...

[allenc85]

Hey can somebody explain this to me...so since Houston lost today and I got them at -145, my book has their ML at -120 right now. So if I put the $145 on them tonight, tomorrow i want to place a bet on them to win $245 in order to cover my bet from tonight and then win the bet for the series?

Yep, your unit is $100. You lost $145 tonight, you want your unit of $100, so you need to win a total of $245, and @ -120 you need to wager $294. BOL

[reverend]

Hey can somebody explain this to me...so since Houston lost today and I got them at -145, my book has their ML at -120 right now. So if I put the $145 on them tonight, tomorrow i want to place a bet on them to win $245 in order to cover my bet from tonight and then win the bet for the series?

exactly.

the b bet is the amount lost on the a bet plus the desired win amount. so if you are wanting to win 100 on the series, tomorrow you will bet to win 245.

[reverend]

Guys, don't worry if Astros lost tomorrow. They will have Oswalt on the mound Thursday. Oswalt owns Reds you know.. (23-1 vs Reds in his career if I remember correctly)

Exactly. I am hoping we win this chase tomorrow with the Astros bouncing back from today's loss, but it is a comforting feeling knowing that Oswalt is on the mound on Thursday against a struggling Arroyo.

[BillAccpetor]

I can live with today's loss of the astros... Let's bounce it back today (yankees too)

[MathewXB]

Eh a loss had to happen sooner or later so now that we have seen it, lets move on to some more winning.

[pat venditto]

Get the bookie tommorow pal!

[reverend]

Wednesday April 28:


Series System:

B Bet: Houston (ML) 2.73 Units to Win 2.3 Units (1 Unit Profit)


Situational System:

B Bet: Yankees (ML) 10.9 Units to Win 5.2 Units (2 Units Profit)


FAV System:

B Bet: Yankees (-1 RL) 9.2 Units to Win 5.3 Units (2 Units Profit)


Individual Bet:

Cubs (ML) 3.8 Units to Win 2 Units

Giants (ML) 1.6 Units to Win 1 Unit


*Yankees are a big game tomorrow!

[Sawyer]

I see a 5-0 day in your future, by looking at my crystall ball. GL Tomorrow Rev!

[reverend]

I see a 5-0 day in your future, by looking at my crystall ball. GL Tomorrow Rev!

Thanks Sawyer. I am seeing the same result as well!

[sycoogtit]

I believe Wednesday's FAV play is Brewers and not Yanks, correct?

[thechaoz]

No sweat rev.. time to re-hammer the books tomorrow...Salute!

[MathewXB]

All those all the plays tomorrow? I see they are all B bets.

[Psylence]

Hey thanks for the work reverend. Appreciate you posting the plays early since I live in Australia.

[Cosmo213]

I believe Wednesday's FAV play is Brewers and not Yanks, correct?

The Fav bet chase is not on the same team each day like series chases are. It's usually the most heavily favored team of that particular day. Yesterday it was the Brewers, today it's the Yankees.

[peterw111]

Nice work guys

[b3diddy]

Hey thanks for the work reverend. Appreciate you posting the plays early since I live in Australia.

I live in Australia too, definitely appreciate the early posting...beats getting up at 2/3/4am

[Psylence]

I live in Australia too, definitely appreciate the early posting...beats getting up at 2/3/4am

Lol yea yesterday when he placed them late i set my alarm for 4am

[rgbraves]

Rev, i see you are on pimikes thread also. It is hard to decide who to play when you guys play opposite sides.

[JVP3122]

Rev, i see you are on pimikes thread also. It is hard to decide who to play when you guys play opposite sides.

I'd play Rev in that situation because even if his pick loses, you're still chasing it and you could win back what you lost in game 1. You could also play both. Then if PiMike get's it right and Rev loses, you win the first bet and then you chase the loss on Rev's system.

[wacky13]

Hey Rev good day. Would it be safe to play the yanks @-1.5?

[justchecking]

Is Milwaukee a play today ?

[denn333]

Love you Aussies.

[G's pks]

My only system play a "B" bet cashed easily with a 12-1 Rockies win...4-0 on week +4 units...waiting for next series.

Four tough losses for you Rev get them today.
Will be rooting for you no series pending for me right now... GL G.

[Freddo]

Rev

Sorry to be such a CAPO DOST( Italian readers know what I meand ) but would you please explain the logic behind the -1rl wagers According to post #903 THE AMOUNT YOU RISK ON THE RL IS ALWAYS EQUAL TO THE AMOUNT TO WIN ON THE MONEY LINE) How does this reduce the risk and the juice? or are you very confident that the heavy Fav is going to win by 2+ runs in which we win both -1.5 and ml Bet the -1rl monday night and last night with the brewers and Monday won two of the three -1rl bets but ended up pushing these three with the juice on the money line and -1.5 rl and then last night loose both rl and ml on the brewers. By the way I have read all the one thousand two hundred and ten posts on this thread and consider myself a graduate of the Reverend University.

[rgbraves]

Thanks, i think if if they have opposites i will play revs since i can chase.

[aufordboy]

BOL Everyone - I like today's plays!

[jolmscheid]

Let's get this Rev!!!

[balls2wall]

Rev

Sorry to be such a CAPO DOST( Italian readers know what I meand ) but would you please explain the logic behind the -1rl wagers According to post #903 THE AMOUNT YOU RISK ON THE RL IS ALWAYS EQUAL TO THE AMOUNT TO WIN ON THE MONEY LINE) How does this reduce the risk and the juice? or are you very confident that the heavy Fav is going to win by 2+ runs in which we win both -1.5 and ml Bet the -1rl monday night and last night with the brewers and Monday won two of the three -1rl bets but ended up pushing these three with the juice on the money line and -1.5 rl and then last night loose both rl and ml on the brewers. By the way I have read all the one thousand two hundred and ten posts on this thread and consider myself a graduate of the Reverend University.

Not Rev, but just trying to help out a bit since he is doing so much.

It reduces the risk because it lowers the amount risked to win the same amount.

Let's say we have a team with -200ML and +100RL to make it easy.

If you just bet the ML to win $100 you would have to risk $200.

On the -1RL the odds would be -150 so you would risk $150 to win that same $100 ($100 on the ML and $50 on the RL). Your risk is reduced by 25% on this example.

It will produce some pushes, but we (I) have only been doing it on game A of a series and we end the series with a push. I have 4 pushes so far this year on my chase plays.

It does reduce the potential winnings a bit, but reduces the risk as well. I wouldn't use the -1RL after game A.

You can always play them all on the ML. It is your $$ so play them the way you feel comfortable. It will definitely produce more winners that way, but the risk will be a little more too.

A lot of us were looking for a way to reduce the risk and this is one method to do that.

[G's pks]

Guys also just a quick thought which i know the rev would agree with...he put a system in place with a method of placing bets. Just remember you are responsible for the amounts you bet. The large favs when they lose will cause much higher "B" and "C" plays. Made sure your unit size is adjusted to handle the possible B/C plays. Do not let a single series wipe you out like we have already seen in the stingyrivers thread which ended abruptly with a four game sweep...

Be careful as you can see with the Yankees unit size today...know your risk tolerence and adjust accordingly... If you are up there is nothing wrong with taking a pass or betting just to recover amount of loss in the "A" bet... Make sure you do not overwager any plays where it can hurt you... Very long season plenty of wins to come...with that said GL with your yankees play today guys... I will be rooting for all of you.

I am not playing any of these picks...luckily my system is in the clear today...but want to see some winners here tonight...

[quick$]

Hello, I am new to this thread. The record is impecable. Sorry you guys had rough day yesterday.
I missed it being I just came in today. I guess I have an advantage jumping on these "B" bet given
the systems record. Just curious though, how often has the system require to go past the B level. And does this mean doubling up if it goes to C level. Thanks for your help. BOL

[timmyboy34243]

consider 2 team parleys on some of these large ml favorites as a way to reduce some of the risk, consider blending this in with the ml and -1rl plays to win your desired amount.

[sycoogtit]

The Fav bet chase is not on the same team each day like series chases are. It's usually the most heavily favored team of that particular day. Yesterday it was the Brewers, today it's the Yankees.

Well crap.

[Freddo]

Balls

GRAZZIA!! This is exactly what I was consered about. we have a Favorite system B bet -1rl yankees today and heavy juice. Thanks for the answer

Freddo

[sycoogtit]

The Yanks ML moved from -198 last night when I put in my Situational System bet to -224 when I fixed my Fav system bet. You think that's attributed to sharps or squares or both? For that big of a move it's gotta be both right?