Reverend's 2010 MLB

[khaden]

..

I would take the loss and split up what you lost on the next 3 of 4 series if you want or just move on. I agree that when you've already had a good week you hate to end on a big downer especially a play that you didn't feel great about to start with. I still think the Nats are good to fade on the road but maybe not at home against a mediocre team.

I agree--looking ahead to next week it seems to be light as far as the number of possible plays. So splitting it up wouldn't be an issue at all. I also agree with on the Nats--obviously its a very long season but they are playing hard right now and I think they should stay a road fade team for now and maybe only add them in situational series when they play at home when they are playing upper tier teams like we did last week against the Phils.

[doublej95]

Play the system out, I see this to many time's people get scared and freek out every time a C Bet come's up no matter who's system it is. There will be c bets in any system and they will win and some will lose, if we knew which ones to lay off of we should be feeling lottery tickets out instead. I play alot of systems and I use to be the same way and lay off C Bet's and then be stuck trying to double up to get it back and then what do you know you are back to a C Bet that scares you to death. If you are going to play a system be prepared for C Bets and play them out.

[khaden]

Play the system out, I see this to many time's people get scared and freek out every time a C Bet come's up no matter who's system it is. There will be c bets in any system and they will win and some will lose, if we knew which ones to lay off of we should be feeling lottery tickets out instead. I play alot of systems and I use to be the same way and lay off C Bet's and then be stuck trying to double up to get it back and then what do you know you are back to a C Bet that scares you to death. If you are going to play a system be prepared for C Bets and play them out.

I agree with you--this might win-but it was a situational play that fell outside the system--if it was a true system play I would ride it out.

[doublej95]

It is a situational system play, so it would be a system just like any of the other two systems.

[diegoelmestre]

anyone can explain in few words what is that system and how works?

[G's pks]

Khaden and Jolmscheid I did not play the Brewers at all under my system. I did a road system for a short time last year and it worked ok, but did suffer more losses within the series moving them more often to B and C bets. As far as playing the Brewers goes, this system calls for you to play a C bet on it, I personally am not familar with this exact system so it will not be my opinion but your own or the Revs to decide. What I am suggesting is even if you do decide to play the Brewers you could either follow the system or reduce the bet to a smaller amount. Or as others suggest just take a loss and move on knowing you are ahead all together depends on your risk tolerence and bankroll.

GL guys...either way I will root for the Brewers tomorrow. Does anyone know how many times the Nats swept anyone last year? I do remember them having a winning streak.

[doublej95]

I do agree with G's pks that it is your choice to play the C Bet, i have C Bets on the Brewers tomorrow at two different books. I'm not that excitited about it but from my past expierence in systems I will follow through with them, at the worst I will play them to break even (leaving the unit profit out to minimize my loss if it happens)

[Djtrikee]

Djtrikee nice call on the yanks but you seem to be doing great doubling your bankroll already...make it last and show a profit at years end. Never risk your whole bankroll that is for the desperate that are losing and cannot pick a winner.

Thanks!!! It was nice. I just wanted to try and double up, so I had money to do 70 dollar bets on 1 team each. I listened to you and didnt go all in...lol But still won on the Giants, Yanks, Mets Got up over 300 now.

[Grosshhit]

hey is anyone going to take Boston tomorrow if they lose their second straight game tonight?? Im guessing it would be a C bet for them if they do lose. They also play against TB on Monday as well.

[mizzoujohn]

I waited to jump on BOS until they lost game 1 (so playing games 2 3 and 4 as a 3 game chase).
Not sure if I'll chase, though. they suck. but get swept 4 at home? I'd think that wont happen.

[Djtrikee]

I really think Boston wont get swept tomorrow, but I really like St Louis tomorrow with wainwright pitching to a Tired Mets team. I think that is the play of the day.

[parlay100]

Can some one please tell me what the hell i am looking at???? i see some winners but i am not sure how the were picked or what filters were used. I looked through the thread but did not see anthing.

Thanks

[Djtrikee]

Rev will post his Picks in Bold usually. FAV are what I think are the top favorite pick of the Day. others are with his system. read about his system in earlier posts. Its a Great System!!!

[dolphan34]

Any word on the Fav pick for Sunday Rev?

[dyeguy]

I disagree with anyone that says that you have to be bound to a system and just blindly make plays. It's my money and if I feel like laying off a C bet then that's the smartest thing for me to do. I have saved myself thousands of dollars by laying off of C bets on the JM NBA system this year when others lost almost their whole bankroll. If you bet games A and B and your team gets killed and looks terrible then it may not be the wisest play to make a C bet. This isn't the Phillies or Yankees we are talking about here, it's the Brewers on the road who happen to be 4-6 right now.

[Echofox]

I also went ahead and took the Brewers..chased A and B and will let it die there. Looking back it wasn't the best series to take anyway. Gonna stay away from the road plays.

[Echofox]

I really like the Twins on the 4 game Situational tomorrow w/ Cleveland coming to town next.. Playin 3.5 units on tommorows game

[Pride]

boston getting swept at home would be ridiculous.

[khaden]

Where is Rev?

[whutchuwant]

I disagree with anyone that says that you have to be bound to a system and just blindly make plays. It's my money and if I feel like laying off a C bet then that's the smartest thing for me to do. I have saved myself thousands of dollars by laying off of C bets on the JM NBA system this year when others lost almost their whole bankroll. If you bet games A and B and your team gets killed and looks terrible then it may not be the wisest play to make a C bet. This isn't the Phillies or Yankees we are talking about here, it's the Brewers on the road who happen to be 4-6 right now.

well said

[reverend]

Saturday April 17:


Situational System Play:

B Bet: Brewers (ML) 5.82 Units to Win 3.75 Units (1.5 Units Profit)


FAV System Play:

A Bet: Yankees (-1 RL) 1.28 Units to Win 1 Unit

Saturday April 18:

FAV System: 1-0 (+1 Unit)

Situational System Pending: 1

[reverend]

Ok boys...

Here is where I stand...I really liked the Brewers series because of the first 2 games. Obviously those did not hit, so now we are left with a C bet option.

I do lean towards the Brewers in todays game because any way you dice it up, they have a better line up, although they have not played very well the last few games. The pitching match-up is a true coin flip. Both pitchers have struggles, but I will say that if I have 2 struggling pitchers, I will take the lefty everyday of the week.

Like has been mentioned before...you are in control of your decisions and your bankroll. So if you dont feel comfortable with this C bet, then pass on it. We have had a great run in these first few weeks, so if you feel like passing, then do it. Again, this are goal this season is to make money!


Now about what I plan on doing...

I do like this game and dont feel as if the Brewers will get swept, but with that being said, I dont enjoy putting 9-12 units on a pitcher with an ERA over 12. Also, in the last hour our so, the ML jumped from -110 on the Brewers to -120 on the Nats. There just seems to be alot of factors that dont line up here. So I am going to pass.

[No coincidences]

Ok boys...

Here is where I stand...I really liked the Brewers series because of the first 2 games. Obviously those did not hit, so now we are left with a C bet option.

I do lean towards the Brewers in todays game because any way you dice it up, they have a better line up, although they have not played very well the last few games. The pitching match-up is a true coin flip. Both pitchers have struggles, but I will say that if I have 2 struggling pitchers, I will take the lefty everyday of the week.

Like has been mentioned before...you are in control of your decisions and your bankroll. So if you dont feel comfortable with this C bet, then pass on it. We have had a great run in these first few weeks, so if you feel like passing, then do it. Again, this are goal this season is to make money!


Now about what I plan on doing...

I do like this game and dont feel as if the Brewers will get swept, but with that being said, I dont enjoy putting 9-12 units on a pitcher with an ERA over 12. Also, in the last hour our so, the ML jumped from -110 on the Brewers to -120 on the Nats. There just seems to be alot of factors that dont line up here. So I am going to pass.

I'm surprised by the line movement -- Marquis has been horseshit both against the Brewers and period lately, and DD has a decent ERA career against the Nats.

[Cosmo213]

I think that's a good decision Rev. I also saw the line movement (ML from -102 to -118 in one shot @ 5Dimes).

[dume walker]

"I do like this game and dont feel as if the Brewers will get swept, but with that being said, I dont enjoy putting 9-12 units on a pitcher with an ERA over 12. Also, in the last hour our so, the ML jumped from -110 on the Brewers to -120 on the Nats. There just seems to be alot of factors that dont line up here. So I am going to pass.[/quote]"

I respect your decision, Rev, and will follow along with you. One question... How will you be recording decisions like this -- when we miss on the A and B bets, then pass on the C bets -- in the overall win and loss columns? Will it be recorded as a loss or not recorded at all since we took a pass on it? One of the things I really admire about what you're doing is that you list the final tallies for each system in units. The other chase system I paid to follow listed their results simply in series wins and losses. In that manner they might show series results of 23-2, which looks great at first glance, until you take into account that each 3 progression loss was the equivalent of 18 wins. So the true result was more like 23-36. Thanks again for all your efforts. I think we all realize how much work you're putting into this and it is very much appreciated.

[TNT28]

I should probably pass too since after Friday's Brewers loss combined with Pimikes and TennisBabes picks and the other A bets that we hit on, I still made $700. And after yesterday with the same scenario I only lost a total of $320. I didn't get on with you from the beginning Rev but after like, my first 6 system wins I was at about the same bankroll as you, following your money management progression, which means I'm at the $150 unit size now. So yeh I will probably pass on this C bet.

[reverend]

Sorry for the quick post but I will be back home in 2 hiurs or so.

I will be playing the Cardinals today on the -1 RL for 1 unit as the FAV System play.

[Cosmo213]

Hopefully that won't be another double-length+ game!

[khaden]

Screw it i'm all in boys brew crew on the c bet! I either have balls the size of grapefruits or a brain the size of peanuts-check back after the game to see which one it is!

[G's pks]

Rev if you are passing on the brewers series and taking a total of approximately an eight unit loss, I was thinking if you reread your situational system this might have not even qualified. It mentions taking a top tier team in the first sentence. Also as I mentioned expecting just to win all the time is very hard.

When i worked it out percentage wise last year it worked out to a ratio of about 8 to 16% chance of picking a losing series each time. But as you said this would be a costly loss if being down approximately 8 units om the brewers and if you bet say 9 units to try to show a profit not worth the risk of losing 17 units...Taking a series loss here is probably the safest thing to do. Now watch the brewers win! But better to be safe than sorry.

Also seeing you are adding more than one system obviously your chances of having series losses will increase. Everyone just build around the winnings and back off avoiding to much risk and taking a loss as in this case is fine based on your risk tolerence.

As I said earlier, the Brewers did not fit in my system and I did not play them. Look at it this way you guys should be up enough to avoid or bet a smaller amount on game. In my system the "C" bet involves taking a loss for that particular series to avoid risk. I am sure several times during the year you may have to decide to take a series loss or risk a high amount to show a win. Or adjust your system like I learned last year to accept series losses even with a win in a "C" bet..

For any of you that played the Brewers and are following through good luck..just be careful with risk reward and protect your winnings...very eeasy to give it back in a situation like this.

[G's pks]

Screw it i'm all in boys brew crew on the c bet! I either have balls the size of grapefruits or a brain the size of peanuts-check back after the game to see which one it is!

Khaden...you may want to look through my thread from last year, linked within the first ten posts of this years thread ... I have done this before and taking to large a risk is not worth it. I lost a four game sweep last year when I was betting larger unit sizes. Took a while and smaller bets to recover which I did.

Seeing this is the last game of the series it does not hurt for you guys to take a series loss and move on with your profits. Of course the Brewers may win and probably should today but decide your risk reward...showing a system loss is better than losing what 17 units if you are following this system..up to you good luck!

I know I will be in the same type situations with my system this year too. I will have no problems taking a series loss to protect profit...it is a long season...finishing in the green is the goal.

[TNT28]

And the Brew Crew is swinging for the fences right out the gate...4-0 bases loaded and no outs

[reverend]

Well...

It is a funny thing. Marquis just got pulled without retiring a batter. Brewers are up 4-0 with bases loaded with 0 outs in the first inning.

[G's pks]

Screw it i'm all in boys brew crew on the c bet! I either have balls the size of grapefruits or a brain the size of peanuts-check back after the game to see which one it is!

I am rooting for you...are you the only one on them? I know rev passed...see they are off to a great start! GL...Did you go all in?

[incomeraise]

yeah crazy thing is i feel like theyt are going to in today, but again sometimes better be safe than sorry is the right way to go