Reverend's 2010 MLB

[timmyboy34243]

LOOKS LIKE A "C" BET ON DETROIT TOMORROW.......BANNISTER IS TWIRLING A GEM!!!!!

OOOOOOOOOps.............

[balls2wall]

NO more clogging this thread with what might happen. Game is not over till the last out. Lot of runs get scored after the 7th innning. All it takes is one hit, one error, etc and the game get's turned around.

i'm just ribbing ya bro so don't take it the wrong way. I am just havin a little fun, but...


Your first sentence says not to clog the thread with what might happen then you follow it up by three sentences saying what might happen.

[GGPLAYER]

i'm just ribbing ya bro so don't take it the wrong way. I am just havin a little fun, but...


Your first sentence says not to clog the thread with what might happen then you follow it up by three sentences saying what might happen.

Nice Flag

You got my point bro. Don't post about C bets until the B game is over. That is what my 3 sentences were about.

[Cosmo213]

Thank god that's over with.

And I was talking about Detroit specifically, not the whole chase thing. I wouldn't have been the only one hesitant to play them again after two apparent blowouts. Wouldn't have had any confidence in them.

[khaden]

Let's keep the thread positive----Rev and Stingy spent countless hours crunching numbers on this--the system will work.

Although I will admit I almost messed my shorts when I was able to check the scores at work and it was 5-0 in the bottom of the 7th and Det had 3 hits at that point.

That would have been a scary C bet--Nice work Rev Det B bet, and Yanks A bet scratched off the list for the week.

[balls2wall]

Nice Flag

You got my point bro. Don't post about C bets until the B game is over. That is what my 3 sentences were about.

yeah I agree 100%


like I said, I was just having a little fun

just got home from work and cracking open a few beers

[Van G]

OOOOOOOOOps.............

I WILL GLADLY TAKE THAT COMMENT BACK!!!

WAY TO GO TIGERS!!!

[JW Cash]

Nice job with the Rangers today. I had leans on them, white sox and rays, but decided to hold off. feel free to post your picks in the thread when you have added series you like.

i am probably going to start the FAV system later on this week once the starting rotations have been through 2 complete times. as far as what opening lines to use, this is going to be a little subjective. i will probably be using pinnacles openers. if there is a discrepancy though, we can talk through it in this thread.

Pinnacle's openers would probably be the best to use...
they are supposed to have the sharpest lines in the industry........

[SantiagoJoe]

Results from last year - same system

Reverend,

Thanks for the great work and the great posts. I esp. love the clarity of your picks and the results that you have got to date. This is missing on so many other threads in here and creates an enormous amount of confusion.

I think that you said earlier that you ran this system last year - If so how many plays were there and how many series losses were there?

Thanks again

[ironchef69]

another great day 3-0!

[superjeff24]

nice day. Good thing you held off on the CWS bet. just wondering why your leans were on CWS today? it seems like everything was in toronto's favour. anyways, lookin forward to following your picks, everyone seems to mention you on here

[reverend]

I wanted to re-post todays plays so they are on the current page.


Tuesday April 13:

SERIES SYSTEM PLAYS:

(A) Bet: Colorado (ML) 2.13 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: Yankees (ML) 2.48 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(B) Bet: Detroit (ML) 5.76 Units to Win 4.3 Units (1.5 Units Profit)

Tuesday April 13:

3-0 (+4.5 Units)

[mizzoujohn]

Rev, thanks in advance to replying to my earlier post. One more question.
What do you do when you are playing on the -1RL, and you have a loss followed by a push. You are down 1U but the team has won a game already that series.

[rolltide10]

Is the ATL B bet the only play for tomMorrow? Thanks again reV... Bol

[reverend]

Ok--I already put in my plays for tuesday--hopefully the Dodgers hit and we dont need to worry about the B and C. If they don't hit on the A, I just might back off the chase like you are doing, Im more concerned about the Dodgers/Giants series coming up this weekend. Maybe they start playing better now they have a home series.

nice going on the dodgers today

[reverend]

Rev, thanks in advance to replying to my earlier post. One more question.
What do you do when you are playing on the -1RL, and you have a loss followed by a push. You are down 1U but the team has won a game already that series.

you bring up a great point that i did not address in the systems post. playing the -1 RL is perfect for the FAV system, because there is no concept of a "series" with the teams involved. but you take a chance when playing it in our series system, because intrinsic in the system is that we are wanting our team to win 1 game during the series, and if they win a game by 1 run and you push your bet, then betting on them the rest of the way is somewhat outside the idea of the series system.

but like you mentioned, when you play the series system plays on the -1 RL, you are taking the chance that your team could win by 1 run and give you a push. the main reason i would play a game on the -1 RL would be because of the juice or just my feelings that i see the score getting out of hand.

now is the event of a push, you have a few options. like i mentioned in my systems post, i am not going to feel locked into having to make a decision, so in your example: if you lost game 1 and then pushed on game 2, i would say that you should evaluate game 3 and only chase it if you truly like the individual match-up.

another example would be if you played game 1 of a chase on the -1 RL and it pushes, then i will be evaluating the next 2 games, and could possibly just decide to pass on the rest of the series.

this is the exact reason why i wrote in the systems post that i am not going to ever feel "bound" to make a bet.

[khaden]

?

nice going on the dodgers today

Don't thank me bro I'm just playing you and Stingy's system! I know your not counting the dodgers on the record but I am 4-0 today; 3 A bet winners and the B bet on Det. Excellent way to start the week!!!

Looks like we only have the B bet on the Braves to play on Wed correct?

[reverend]

I wanted to address a very important issue that will surface multiple times this season:

Today...we had a B bet on Detroit and they got behind 5-0. And we had guys coming on this thread with negative posts and attitudes before the game was even over. Listen...I completely understand the feeling. But if you are on board with these chase systems, there will be games and bets that you will want to call into question, but I just ask that you do it in a constructive way and let the system play out.

If you are not comfortable with a chase system, then I highly advise you to find another system to follow. I would love to be able to tell you that we will win all our A bets, but we all know that is not the case. You have to be mentally and financially prepared to make a C bet when it comes time. And just know that it will happen at some point this season.

Another great point to bring out of this Detroit series is the issue of looking ahead to all 3 of the pitching match-ups in a series! I thought today was the worst of the 3 pitching match-ups for Detroit in this series, but I was ready to back Porcello 100% with a C bet. So before you ever place an A bet, make sure you look ahead to who you would have going on a C bet if it goes to a third game, and be comfortable with that, or dont place the A bet! This is one of the main ways I screen out series that I will post as official plays.

[mizzoujohn]

thanks for the reply. if you back up a page I had another question that I think was pretty relevant if you have time to give your thoughts to. thanks
John

[reverend]

Wednesday April 14:

Situational System Play:

(B) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 6.6 Units to Win 5 Units (2 Units Profit)


I am waiting until tomorrow to place this bet to see if the line comes down. I will list the prices when I place the bet. I imagine since SD won by so many runs last game, that the public may end up backing SD. I really like Hanson and this match-up for the Braves.

[dume walker]

First off, Reverend, let me salute your integrity and your desire to keep your thread positive and constructive. I am with you all the way on that. While I'm new to this thread, I'm not new to the experience of chase betting, although I didn't know it was called that. I was part of a paid betting service that used this sort of system in basketball. They gave it another name (which I won't reveal here as I don't want to give them away) but I suspected it was a system used by others. One of the main reasons I suspected that was because I noticed the teams they were picking were often one of the most popular bets at certain books. Teams you wouldn't expect to be popular bets like the Pistons and Clippers. And they would remain the most popular bets for however long the 3 game series played out. So I knew others were using this system as well.

The other thing about this service's system was that for a while they would have you buy an extra 3 points at -170 vig. That would get very expensive once the series made it to the B and C games. I pointed out to the people running this system that it was a kind of mini-martingale approach. I also noted that, mathematically, you needed to have 18 series wins (at -170 vig per game) to cover any 3 game series loss. So while some were getting very excited that the series results were 10-0, I was still reserved knowing that one loss could wipe that out.

I sincerely do hope this is not coming across as negative or cynical. I got down on your picks today and plan to continue to do so. Partly because of the great education you are giving all of us in letting us know the why's and wherefor's of your approach. Is it okay to ask, in terms of figuring out how big a monetary win to go for in each series, what kind of loss ratio one might expect if all three bets go down. I know that might be difficult to do since the lines vary so much in baseball, but is there any sort of guideline you could give us in this regard so we know how to best appropriate our BR for each series. Especially considering that you might have us playing as many as 3 or more of these at once. Some sort of risk vs. reward assessment. If you've already posted this earlier in the thread, just point me to it and I'll go back and read it. I do plan to start at the beginning of this thread, like taking a college course, and learn all I can from all that your are kindly sharing with us. Thanks again.

[venture]

First off, Reverend, let me salute your integrity and your desire to keep your thread positive and constructive. I am with you all the way on that. While I'm new to this thread, I'm not new to the experience of chase betting, although I didn't know it was called that. I was part of a paid betting service that used this sort of system in basketball. They gave it another name (which I won't reveal here as I don't want to give them away) but I suspected it was a system used by others. One of the main reasons I suspected that was because I noticed the teams they were picking were often one of the most popular bets at certain books. Teams you wouldn't expect to be popular bets like the Pistons and Clippers. And they would remain the most popular bets for however long the 3 game series played out. So I knew others were using this system as well.

The other thing about this service's system was that for a while they would have you buy an extra 3 points at -170 vig. That would get very expensive once the series made it to the B and C games. I pointed out to the people running this system that it was a kind of mini-martingale approach. I also noted that, mathematically, you needed to have 18 series wins (at -170 vig per game) to cover any 3 game series loss. So while some were getting very excited that the series results were 10-0, I was still reserved knowing that one loss could wipe that out.

I sincerely do hope this is not coming across as negative or cynical. I got down on your picks today and plan to continue to do so. Partly because of the great education you are giving all of us in letting us know the why's and wherefor's of your approach. Is it okay to ask, in terms of figuring out how big a monetary win to go for in each series, what kind of loss ratio one might expect if all three bets go down. I know that might be difficult to do since the lines vary so much in baseball, but is there any sort of guideline you could give us in this regard so we know how to best appropriate our BR for each series. Especially considering that you might have us playing as many as 3 or more of these at once. Some sort of risk vs. reward assessment. If you've already posted this earlier in the thread, just point me to it and I'll go back and read it. I do plan to start at the beginning of this thread, like taking a college course, and learn all I can from all that your are kindly sharing with us. Thanks again.

Morrison

[dume walker]

I have no idea what you mean by "Morrison".

[dume walker]

Thanks for the info. It is very much appreciated. I look forward to riding along on this adventure with all of you -- and learning all I can along the way.

[G's pks]

Guys real simple if you cannot stomach a chase you have two choices, one bet very small like I do for a good part of the season in my thread or do not chase. Games will lose, even a series most likely once in a while. Anyone remember the Phillies getting swept in a four game series at home last year against the Rockies? For those of us chasing we do... I lost quite a bit on it...

Best idea..do not even talk about morrison if a pick loses move onto next pick. Follow an extremely strict money management system. Already saw guys bailing in here...same thing happens in my thread...if you lack the discipline or bankroll jump ship now! Otherwise GL to you. Nothing new here, the wheel was not reinvented...chases have been around forever...

[diegoelmestre]

3-0 huge day ^^

[reverend]

First off, Reverend, let me salute your integrity and your desire to keep your thread positive and constructive. I am with you all the way on that. While I'm new to this thread, I'm not new to the experience of chase betting, although I didn't know it was called that. I was part of a paid betting service that used this sort of system in basketball. They gave it another name (which I won't reveal here as I don't want to give them away) but I suspected it was a system used by others. One of the main reasons I suspected that was because I noticed the teams they were picking were often one of the most popular bets at certain books. Teams you wouldn't expect to be popular bets like the Pistons and Clippers. And they would remain the most popular bets for however long the 3 game series played out. So I knew others were using this system as well.

The other thing about this service's system was that for a while they would have you buy an extra 3 points at -170 vig. That would get very expensive once the series made it to the B and C games. I pointed out to the people running this system that it was a kind of mini-martingale approach. I also noted that, mathematically, you needed to have 18 series wins (at -170 vig per game) to cover any 3 game series loss. So while some were getting very excited that the series results were 10-0, I was still reserved knowing that one loss could wipe that out.

I sincerely do hope this is not coming across as negative or cynical. I got down on your picks today and plan to continue to do so. Partly because of the great education you are giving all of us in letting us know the why's and wherefor's of your approach. Is it okay to ask, in terms of figuring out how big a monetary win to go for in each series, what kind of loss ratio one might expect if all three bets go down. I know that might be difficult to do since the lines vary so much in baseball, but is there any sort of guideline you could give us in this regard so we know how to best appropriate our BR for each series. Especially considering that you might have us playing as many as 3 or more of these at once. Some sort of risk vs. reward assessment. If you've already posted this earlier in the thread, just point me to it and I'll go back and read it. I do plan to start at the beginning of this thread, like taking a college course, and learn all I can from all that your are kindly sharing with us. Thanks again.

dume,

great post. i am completely open to these type of questions as we all are trying to get better and become more successful bettors this season.

your point about the risk of the chase system is spot on. you have to realize that if you were with us from game 1, you are up around 22 units. but that entire amount could be wiped out with 1 series loss. that is the risk i am running playing this type of system. i want everyone who follows to be aware of that, because it is a great feeling winning 20 straight games, but knowing that it could all be erased with a series sweep will keep you somewhat humble.

i am glad you brought up the money management topic. i was going to be posting about that today anyway. here are my thoughts:

when i was backtesting various ideas and systems this offseason, i was really wanting to find something where the possibility of zero losses was attainable. i wanted it this way so i could implement a more aggressive betting progression in terms of the bankroll management. i am in the middle of trying to drill down a more refined money management system for what we are playing in here.

you can look at it from 2 angles. you can try and maximize your system in terms of its profit potential or you can focus on limiting your risk amount which allows you to control your bankroll better. i want to blend these 2 views together, because it is my hope that we do not lose a series all year, but i know it is very possible that we do.

so with all that said, i dont have a great answer for you right now. like you said, we could have 3-5 series going at 1 time, so you must adjust your unit size beforehand to where you would be able to handle all the required bets. my general advice would be to play conservative over april and may and build build your bankroll, and as you develop more of a cushion, you will have the option to be more aggressive over the summer months.

this is the first time i have played this type of system, so i am trying to learn how to manage it on the fly as well. that is the reason why positive contributions in this thread are important.

[reverend]

Guys real simple if you cannot stomach a chase you have two choices, one bet very small like I do for a good part of the season in my thread or do not chase. Games will lose, even a series most likely once in a while. Anyone remember the Phillies getting swept in a four game series at home last year against the Rockies? For those of us chasing we do... I lost quite a bit on it...

Best idea..do not even talk about morrison if a pick loses move onto next pick. Follow an extremely strict money management system. Already saw guys bailing in here...same thing happens in my thread...if you lack the discipline or bankroll jump ship now! Otherwise GL to you. Nothing new here, the wheel was not reinvented...chases have been around forever...

G said it very well above.

make sure you are prepared to lose each series. if you cant stomach it, then either lower your unit amount or dont play this chase system.

now it is my true belief that we can run the table this year...but with that said, please know that at the end of the day, it is a bunch of adult men playing a game, and anything can happen over the course of 3 games.

[reverend]

And while we are on the subject...

if you dont like a series i post, then just dont play it. it will not kill you to skip a series or 2. along the same lines, if we lose an A bet and you look ahead to the B and C bets and dont like the feel of it, then end your chase with the A bet loss.

i am not a fan of blindly following anything. like i mentioned before, at the end of the day, you are responsible for the money you make or lose.

but with that said, i strongly encourage you not to pick and choose individual games to play in this thread. when i bet a series, i have already evaluated all the games involved and feel comfortable with each.

[jolmscheid]

Well Said Rev...keep it going and thanks for all your help and what you do for this forum...GO BRAVES today

[dume walker]

Thanks again, Rev, especially for the fullness of your answer. That's one of the things I'm most excited about in regards to what you're doing. Learning what's behind your selection process and becoming a more sophisticated bettor along the way.

One other thing in regards to your approach... I won't be making any B and C bets until I get your official go-ahead to do so. I believe I read earlier that you will not feel bound to play a series out should circumstances or something else from your perspective change. So I'll hold off on Atlanta till we all get word from you.

Thanks again for letting us peek behind the curtain and see which levers you're pulling.

[reverend]

Thanks again, Rev, especially for the fullness of your answer. That's one of the things I'm most excited about in regards to what you're doing. Learning what's behind your selection process and becoming a more sophisticated bettor along the way.

One other thing in regards to your approach... I won't be making any B and C bets until I get your official go-ahead to do so. I believe I read earlier that you will not feel bound to play a series out should circumstances or something else from your perspective change. So I'll hold off on Atlanta till we all get word from you.

Thanks again for letting us peek behind the curtain and see which levers you're pulling.

no problem dume...

I will be playing Atlanta today for sure. Just waiting to see if the ML drops any more...

[Vince Lombardi]

Rev you are rollin in MLB! Good luck to you and keep up the good work.

[reverend]

Wednesday April 14:

Situational System Play:

(B) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 6.6 Units to Win 5 Units (2 Units Profit)

[mizzoujohn]

Hey Rev
this may not apply to you since you already seem to have a nice, aggressive betting strategy in place. But I've decided I might start to play this, and thought the information would be good to have in your thread in case someone else might want to try it out.

This betting strategy is to win 1 unit per game of the series up until your series win.
For instance, you can win a series on the first game, the second game, the third game, or not at all.

Here is a theoretical series played on the regular series chase betting strategy played at even odds:
Team A at Team B
game 1: bet 1 to win 1. Win: +1u
Game 2: bet 2 to win 2 (+1 overall). Win: +1U
Game 3: Bet 4 to win 4 (+1 overall). Win +1U
Series loss: -7 Units

Here is how the betting strategy to win 1 unit per series game would go:
Game 1: bet 1 to win 1 (+1 overall). Win= +1u
Game 2: Bet 3 to win 2 (1 for game 1 and 1 for game 2). Win =+2u
Game 3: Bet 7 to win 3 (1 for each game). Win = +3u.
Series Loss: -11U

So for this strategy to be successful you would need to win 5 more series per series loss to come out ahead using this betting strategy. Which should be a no-brainer IMO.

John