Have a question, why are we playing Atlanta, is it more a feel bet since they are not on the list of teams? They did get swept on the road by the Mets and Nationals last year, two bad teams.
Reverend's 2010 MLB
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BernardMadoffSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-12-09
- 6679
#246Comment -
SkivChefSBR Wise Guy
- 10-19-09
- 730
#247bernie, check post #214, "situational system"Comment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#248
my reasoning: SD is one of the worst teams in the league, atlanta is going to contend for the wild card and had been hitting the ball very well. but the main factor was that i liked all 3 pitching match-ups for atlanta. that was the main factor. also, atlanta had won 13 of their last 18 games @ SD.Comment -
khadenSBR MVP
- 01-19-09
- 1864
#249Ok--I already put in my plays for tuesday--hopefully the Dodgers hit and we dont need to worry about the B and C. If they don't hit on the A, I just might back off the chase like you are doing, Im more concerned about the Dodgers/Giants series coming up this weekend. Maybe they start playing better now they have a home series.Comment -
BernardMadoffSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-12-09
- 6679
#250your right. atlanta was more of a situational chase for me.
my reasoning: SD is one of the worst teams in the league, atlanta is going to contend for the wild card and had been hitting the ball very well. but the main factor was that i liked all 3 pitching match-ups for atlanta. that was the main factor. also, atlanta had won 13 of their last 18 games @ SD.Comment -
mizzoujohnSBR High Roller
- 03-16-10
- 155
#251Hi Rev
I've also been researching for the last few weeks and devising a system to use that is similar to what you are doing. My main priority was going to be the daily biggest favorite chase, but my friend and I created a computer program to calculate it's results over the last 10 years (we got the data from page 8 of the 'system integrity' thread in this forum). Anyway, on the -1RL it should be profitable but if it hits 3 losses over 150-ish games (average is 1.89 losses per 150 games over the last 10 years, according to bettorbob's data at leat), you are looking at just under even money, so I'm not sure if it's the way to go. Your data regarding it on the last page looked good though. Is that data you compiled yourself?
As an aside, I was thinking about taking FLA over their next 3 hosting CIN. What do you think?
thanks for your replies.
JohnComment -
allison13SBR Hustler
- 02-16-10
- 71
#252Lets get it done today DetriotComment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#253Here we go Tigers, Yanks, RockiesComment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#254
How come you have Col as a play and the other guy in Stingy's thread has LAD? I don't get the LAD play to be honest. Can someone explain to me why the Det line came down too? Det is the better team here rightComment -
IWinMyBetsRestricted User
- 01-23-10
- 106
#255Let's build our bankrolls. Having the time of my life. this is a blast! Thanks to all.Comment -
G's pksRestricted User
- 01-01-09
- 22251
#256Reverend...you might want to list when you are playing different systems... I had the same problem last year. Last year when I briefly ran two systems several got confused. GL with your plays today... I had Phil, Stl, SF, and Det was listed as my lowest play strength wise. Only other system play I have starts today with NYY. Obviously Detroit moves to a "B", even though Atlanta did not win for you... I like the situational chase and did some research on it(something very close) and road teams last year. It will work but not as effective as the home chase.Comment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#257Hi Rev
I've also been researching for the last few weeks and devising a system to use that is similar to what you are doing. My main priority was going to be the daily biggest favorite chase, but my friend and I created a computer program to calculate it's results over the last 10 years (we got the data from page 8 of the 'system integrity' thread in this forum). Anyway, on the -1RL it should be profitable but if it hits 3 losses over 150-ish games (average is 1.89 losses per 150 games over the last 10 years, according to bettorbob's data at leat), you are looking at just under even money, so I'm not sure if it's the way to go. Your data regarding it on the last page looked good though. Is that data you compiled yourself?
As an aside, I was thinking about taking FLA over their next 3 hosting CIN. What do you think?
thanks for your replies.
John
about FLA, i do think they will be good for at least 1 win against CIN. i am not playing it though.Comment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#258
you mentioned the other thread playing this same type system...they are playing LAD because LAD was a great home team last year. but like i said in my systems post, i dont want to be bound by having to play certain teams. i am still not sure on what i think about LAD, so i am laying off of them in this series. but it would surprise me if they got swept.
about the line movement...this is tricky. over the years, i have found that it is not worth watching every exact movement in the line, because it will drive you mad. you should do your analysis, make your picks and stick with your gut...i will say though that if a line moves considerably, then that is something to be aware of.Comment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#259Reverend...you might want to list when you are playing different systems... I had the same problem last year. Last year when I briefly ran two systems several got confused. GL with your plays today... I had Phil, Stl, SF, and Det was listed as my lowest play strength wise. Only other system play I have starts today with NYY. Obviously Detroit moves to a "B", even though Atlanta did not win for you... I like the situational chase and did some research on it(something very close) and road teams last year. It will work but not as effective as the home chase.Comment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#260
April 12: 3-2 (+4.5 Units)
We have a B bet on Detroit today and will have a B bet on Atlanta tomorrow.Comment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#261I wanted to re-post todays plays so they are on the current page.
Tuesday April 13:
SERIES SYSTEM PLAYS:
(A) Bet: Colorado (ML) 2.13 Units to Win 1.5 Units
(A) Bet: Yankees (ML) 2.48 Units to Win 1.5 Units
(B) Bet: Detroit (ML) 5.76 Units to Win 4.3 Units (1.5 Units Profit)Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#262Let's do this RevComment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#263Got it....thanks for the feebback. Your working your butt off in here. I am skipping the LAD play today and will see if it goes B or C. I like Det but everyone seems to be picking KC again. Same with LAA which I don't get...did anyone see how bad they were at home? I actually feel lucky I bet both those series and got the wins becauses they are just not playing good baseball right now.
I hear you about the lines. I did drive myself crazy with NBA this year trying to squeeze out a .5 by waiting or not waiting. In the end it almost never mattered. I'm rolling with the Det B bet today along with Col and NYY. Thanks againComment -
reverendSBR Wise Guy
- 06-01-09
- 880
#264Got it....thanks for the feebback. Your working your butt off in here. I am skipping the LAD play today and will see if it goes B or C. I like Det but everyone seems to be picking KC again. Same with LAA which I don't get...did anyone see how bad they were at home? I actually feel lucky I bet both those series and got the wins becauses they are just not playing good baseball right now.
I hear you about the lines. I did drive myself crazy with NBA this year trying to squeeze out a .5 by waiting or not waiting. In the end it almost never mattered. I'm rolling with the Det B bet today along with Col and NYY. Thanks again
this detroit play is a little weird. it feels as if everyone is on KC and the line movement points to that, but i am hoping for a great outing from willis and that the tiger bats will stay hot.
i imagine it is because bannister pitched very well against the tigers last year...this game should be a good one, but in the event of a loss today, i really love the pitching match-up tomorrow for detroit!
but lets get the win today fellas!Comment -
Cosmo213SBR High Roller
- 04-03-10
- 104
#265I'm not making a C bet on Detroit. Forget about it.Comment -
PrideSBR MVP
- 04-12-10
- 4238
#266tigers are cold as ice. staying far away for sure. KC for the sweep!Comment -
PetmanSBR Rookie
- 03-19-10
- 42
#267Sad how quickly some give up the chase...
From my understanding (and experience) if you took the bet "Action" and there is a change in pitchers the play will be graded at the opening money line which was -200. Therefore I think the SF series play yesterday should only be +1.24 units since the change in pitchers. If you went listed it was a no bet so .....
Is this consistent treatment across all books or is mine "special" in the way the bet is adjusted for a pitching change?Last edited by Petman; 04-13-10, 02:16 PM.Comment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#268Well this game is far from over...all it takes is one big inning. But I just had a bad feeling when I saw the line come way down like that. Plus Tha Diesel posted Det as his play and that D Willis would have a no-hitter todayFrom the work I have seen from him here and in the NBA forum he is fade material.
This is just like what I saw with JM basketball plays, etc. the moment a series goes to a C bet everyone runs for the hills. Like I said let's wait till the end of the game before we all hit the panic button here.Comment -
GrosshhitSBR Wise Guy
- 07-10-09
- 673
#269Well this game is far from over...all it takes is one big inning. But I just had a bad feeling when I saw the line come way down like that. Plus Tha Diesel posted Det as his play and that D Willis would have a no-hitter todayFrom the work I have seen from him here and in the NBA forum he is fade material.
This is just like what I saw with JM basketball plays, etc. the moment a series goes to a C bet everyone runs for the hills. Like I said let's wait till the end of the game before we all hit the panic button here.Comment -
teeceeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-09
- 6296
#272i am on the fence with the dodgers/arizona series. i say that because if the dodgers dont win game 1, i am not sure they will win a game in the series. i really like kershaw tomorrow, but after that, in games 2 and 3, i lean to the arizona pitchers. and the worst would be going into game 3 of the series with a c bet and having to beat haren...even though he was bad last time out.
so...my thought is that the dodgers win tomorrow, but i am not going to play it as a series chase, because of the risk in games 2 and 3. and i am not sold on how good the dodgers are going to be this season yet.
I don't like the Dodgers in the first two, but I really like the fact that Kuroda is slated to hurl versus Haren. You will be getting +money on the wager for a C bet, and I think that LAD will pull this one out.Comment -
DURANTULASBR Rookie
- 04-08-10
- 15
#273what you think about the A's tonight?Comment -
DURANTULASBR Rookie
- 04-08-10
- 15
#274you think they have better odds than the Rockies?Comment -
diegoelmestreSBR Wise Guy
- 12-30-09
- 510
#275Tigers... Fantastic.. keep doing that !!Comment -
teeceeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-09
- 6296
#276Hey! Good News! You might not need to make a DET C bet.Comment -
EchofoxSBR Rookie
- 10-31-09
- 35
#277HUGE for the Tigers! One more inning to shut em down and not have to play tomorrow's C!Comment -
ventureSBR MVP
- 11-25-09
- 1158
#278Wow what a win, how bout the 7th inningComment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#279Well this game is far from over...all it takes is one big inning. But I just had a bad feeling when I saw the line come way down like that. Plus Tha Diesel posted Det as his play and that D Willis would have a no-hitter todayFrom the work I have seen from him here and in the NBA forum he is fade material.
This is just like what I saw with JM basketball plays, etc. the moment a series goes to a C bet everyone runs for the hills. Like I said let's wait till the end of the game before we all hit the panic button here.Comment
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