Reverend's 2010 MLB

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  • BernardMadoff
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-12-09
    • 6679

    #246
    Have a question, why are we playing Atlanta, is it more a feel bet since they are not on the list of teams? They did get swept on the road by the Mets and Nationals last year, two bad teams.
    Comment
    • SkivChef
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-19-09
      • 730

      #247
      bernie, check post #214, "situational system"
      Comment
      • reverend
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 06-01-09
        • 880

        #248
        Originally posted by BernardMadoff
        Have a question, why are we playing Atlanta, is it more a feel bet since they are not on the list of teams? They did get swept on the road by the Mets and Nationals last year, two bad teams.
        your right. atlanta was more of a situational chase for me.
        my reasoning: SD is one of the worst teams in the league, atlanta is going to contend for the wild card and had been hitting the ball very well. but the main factor was that i liked all 3 pitching match-ups for atlanta. that was the main factor. also, atlanta had won 13 of their last 18 games @ SD.
        Comment
        • khaden
          SBR MVP
          • 01-19-09
          • 1864

          #249
          Ok--I already put in my plays for tuesday--hopefully the Dodgers hit and we dont need to worry about the B and C. If they don't hit on the A, I just might back off the chase like you are doing, Im more concerned about the Dodgers/Giants series coming up this weekend. Maybe they start playing better now they have a home series.
          Comment
          • BernardMadoff
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-12-09
            • 6679

            #250
            Originally posted by reverend
            your right. atlanta was more of a situational chase for me.
            my reasoning: SD is one of the worst teams in the league, atlanta is going to contend for the wild card and had been hitting the ball very well. but the main factor was that i liked all 3 pitching match-ups for atlanta. that was the main factor. also, atlanta had won 13 of their last 18 games @ SD.
            Oh ok, cool, also sent you a private message, was wondering how you got data for past years highest moneyline favorites.
            Comment
            • mizzoujohn
              SBR High Roller
              • 03-16-10
              • 155

              #251
              Hi Rev
              I've also been researching for the last few weeks and devising a system to use that is similar to what you are doing. My main priority was going to be the daily biggest favorite chase, but my friend and I created a computer program to calculate it's results over the last 10 years (we got the data from page 8 of the 'system integrity' thread in this forum). Anyway, on the -1RL it should be profitable but if it hits 3 losses over 150-ish games (average is 1.89 losses per 150 games over the last 10 years, according to bettorbob's data at leat), you are looking at just under even money, so I'm not sure if it's the way to go. Your data regarding it on the last page looked good though. Is that data you compiled yourself?


              As an aside, I was thinking about taking FLA over their next 3 hosting CIN. What do you think?

              thanks for your replies.
              John
              Comment
              • allison13
                SBR Hustler
                • 02-16-10
                • 71

                #252
                Lets get it done today Detriot
                Comment
                • jolmscheid
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-20-10
                  • 3256

                  #253
                  Here we go Tigers, Yanks, Rockies
                  Comment
                  • GGPLAYER
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-26-09
                    • 2981

                    #254
                    Originally posted by reverend
                    Tuesday April 13:

                    (A) Bet: Colorado (ML) 2.13 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                    (A) Bet: Yankees (ML) 2.48 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                    (B) Bet: Detroit (ML) 5.76 Units to Win 4.3 Units (1.5 Units Profit)

                    How come you have Col as a play and the other guy in Stingy's thread has LAD? I don't get the LAD play to be honest. Can someone explain to me why the Det line came down too? Det is the better team here right
                    Comment
                    • IWinMyBets
                      Restricted User
                      • 01-23-10
                      • 106

                      #255
                      Let's build our bankrolls. Having the time of my life. this is a blast! Thanks to all.
                      Comment
                      • G's pks
                        Restricted User
                        • 01-01-09
                        • 22251

                        #256
                        Reverend...you might want to list when you are playing different systems... I had the same problem last year. Last year when I briefly ran two systems several got confused. GL with your plays today... I had Phil, Stl, SF, and Det was listed as my lowest play strength wise. Only other system play I have starts today with NYY. Obviously Detroit moves to a "B", even though Atlanta did not win for you... I like the situational chase and did some research on it(something very close) and road teams last year. It will work but not as effective as the home chase.
                        Comment
                        • reverend
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 06-01-09
                          • 880

                          #257
                          Originally posted by mizzoujohn
                          Hi Rev
                          I've also been researching for the last few weeks and devising a system to use that is similar to what you are doing. My main priority was going to be the daily biggest favorite chase, but my friend and I created a computer program to calculate it's results over the last 10 years (we got the data from page 8 of the 'system integrity' thread in this forum). Anyway, on the -1RL it should be profitable but if it hits 3 losses over 150-ish games (average is 1.89 losses per 150 games over the last 10 years, according to bettorbob's data at leat), you are looking at just under even money, so I'm not sure if it's the way to go. Your data regarding it on the last page looked good though. Is that data you compiled yourself?


                          As an aside, I was thinking about taking FLA over their next 3 hosting CIN. What do you think?

                          thanks for your replies.
                          John
                          your correct. i manually backtested this myself for the past 3 seasons. what i found was just what you said. if you have 3 series losses (4 straight favs losing), then you will be slightly negative for the year, but if you can keep it to 0-2 losses you will be positive. another thing i found over the past 3 seasons was that you could play this as a 4 game chase on the -1 RL or a 5 game chase on the -1.5 RL and you wound up with similar results. i prefer the 4 game chase on the -1RL because you have less series going to the 4th and 5th game.

                          about FLA, i do think they will be good for at least 1 win against CIN. i am not playing it though.
                          Comment
                          • reverend
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 06-01-09
                            • 880

                            #258
                            Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                            How come you have Col as a play and the other guy in Stingy's thread has LAD? I don't get the LAD play to be honest. Can someone explain to me why the Det line came down too? Det is the better team here right
                            I am playing COL because I feel they have one of the deepest pitching staffs in the league and they are an excellent team at home.

                            you mentioned the other thread playing this same type system...they are playing LAD because LAD was a great home team last year. but like i said in my systems post, i dont want to be bound by having to play certain teams. i am still not sure on what i think about LAD, so i am laying off of them in this series. but it would surprise me if they got swept.

                            about the line movement...this is tricky. over the years, i have found that it is not worth watching every exact movement in the line, because it will drive you mad. you should do your analysis, make your picks and stick with your gut...i will say though that if a line moves considerably, then that is something to be aware of.
                            Comment
                            • reverend
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 06-01-09
                              • 880

                              #259
                              Originally posted by G's pks
                              Reverend...you might want to list when you are playing different systems... I had the same problem last year. Last year when I briefly ran two systems several got confused. GL with your plays today... I had Phil, Stl, SF, and Det was listed as my lowest play strength wise. Only other system play I have starts today with NYY. Obviously Detroit moves to a "B", even though Atlanta did not win for you... I like the situational chase and did some research on it(something very close) and road teams last year. It will work but not as effective as the home chase.
                              G...i was just thinking about this last night. i will try and devise a way to post and keep record of playing multiple systems in 1 thread.
                              Comment
                              • reverend
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 06-01-09
                                • 880

                                #260
                                Originally posted by reverend
                                April 12:

                                (A) Bet: Detroit (ML) 2.8 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                                (A) Bet: St. Louis (ML) 3.22 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                                (A) Bet: Philadelphia (-1 RL) 3 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                                (A) Bet: San Francisco (ML) 2.47 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                                (A) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 3 Units to Win 2 Units

                                April 12: 3-2 (+4.5 Units)


                                We have a B bet on Detroit today and will have a B bet on Atlanta tomorrow.
                                Comment
                                • reverend
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 06-01-09
                                  • 880

                                  #261
                                  I wanted to re-post todays plays so they are on the current page.


                                  Tuesday April 13:

                                  SERIES SYSTEM PLAYS:

                                  (A) Bet: Colorado (ML) 2.13 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                                  (A) Bet: Yankees (ML) 2.48 Units to Win 1.5 Units

                                  (B) Bet: Detroit (ML) 5.76 Units to Win 4.3 Units (1.5 Units Profit)
                                  Comment
                                  • jolmscheid
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 02-20-10
                                    • 3256

                                    #262
                                    Let's do this Rev
                                    Comment
                                    • GGPLAYER
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-26-09
                                      • 2981

                                      #263
                                      Got it....thanks for the feebback. Your working your butt off in here. I am skipping the LAD play today and will see if it goes B or C. I like Det but everyone seems to be picking KC again. Same with LAA which I don't get...did anyone see how bad they were at home? I actually feel lucky I bet both those series and got the wins becauses they are just not playing good baseball right now.

                                      I hear you about the lines. I did drive myself crazy with NBA this year trying to squeeze out a .5 by waiting or not waiting. In the end it almost never mattered. I'm rolling with the Det B bet today along with Col and NYY. Thanks again
                                      Comment
                                      • reverend
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 06-01-09
                                        • 880

                                        #264
                                        Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                        Got it....thanks for the feebback. Your working your butt off in here. I am skipping the LAD play today and will see if it goes B or C. I like Det but everyone seems to be picking KC again. Same with LAA which I don't get...did anyone see how bad they were at home? I actually feel lucky I bet both those series and got the wins becauses they are just not playing good baseball right now.

                                        I hear you about the lines. I did drive myself crazy with NBA this year trying to squeeze out a .5 by waiting or not waiting. In the end it almost never mattered. I'm rolling with the Det B bet today along with Col and NYY. Thanks again
                                        your welcome...

                                        this detroit play is a little weird. it feels as if everyone is on KC and the line movement points to that, but i am hoping for a great outing from willis and that the tiger bats will stay hot.

                                        i imagine it is because bannister pitched very well against the tigers last year...this game should be a good one, but in the event of a loss today, i really love the pitching match-up tomorrow for detroit!

                                        but lets get the win today fellas!
                                        Comment
                                        • Cosmo213
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 04-03-10
                                          • 104

                                          #265
                                          I'm not making a C bet on Detroit. Forget about it.
                                          Comment
                                          • Pride
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-12-10
                                            • 4238

                                            #266
                                            tigers are cold as ice. staying far away for sure. KC for the sweep!
                                            Comment
                                            • Petman
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 03-19-10
                                              • 42

                                              #267
                                              Sad how quickly some give up the chase...



                                              From my understanding (and experience) if you took the bet "Action" and there is a change in pitchers the play will be graded at the opening money line which was -200. Therefore I think the SF series play yesterday should only be +1.24 units since the change in pitchers. If you went listed it was a no bet so .....

                                              Is this consistent treatment across all books or is mine "special" in the way the bet is adjusted for a pitching change?
                                              Last edited by Petman; 04-13-10, 02:16 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • GGPLAYER
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-26-09
                                                • 2981

                                                #268
                                                Well this game is far from over...all it takes is one big inning. But I just had a bad feeling when I saw the line come way down like that. Plus Tha Diesel posted Det as his play and that D Willis would have a no-hitter today From the work I have seen from him here and in the NBA forum he is fade material.

                                                This is just like what I saw with JM basketball plays, etc. the moment a series goes to a C bet everyone runs for the hills. Like I said let's wait till the end of the game before we all hit the panic button here.
                                                Comment
                                                • Grosshhit
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-10-09
                                                  • 673

                                                  #269
                                                  Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                  Well this game is far from over...all it takes is one big inning. But I just had a bad feeling when I saw the line come way down like that. Plus Tha Diesel posted Det as his play and that D Willis would have a no-hitter today From the work I have seen from him here and in the NBA forum he is fade material.

                                                  This is just like what I saw with JM basketball plays, etc. the moment a series goes to a C bet everyone runs for the hills. Like I said let's wait till the end of the game before we all hit the panic button here.
                                                  you are completely right here, I have seen so many times before people giving up on a series. Its pathetic if you dont play a C bet then you really have no reason to being doing a chase system. If Detroit does lose today, ill be sure to be on their asses tomorrow.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Van G
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 03-30-10
                                                    • 261

                                                    #270
                                                    Originally posted by Pride
                                                    tigers are cold as ice. staying far away for sure. KC for the sweep!

                                                    LOOKS LIKE A "C" BET ON DETROIT TOMORROW.......BANNISTER IS TWIRLING A GEM!!!!!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • teecee
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-18-09
                                                      • 6296

                                                      #271
                                                      Originally posted by Cosmo213
                                                      I'm not making a C bet on Detroit. Forget about it.

                                                      Wise move on your part, regardless of the outcome. Porcello has something to prove before I back him with anything.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • teecee
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-18-09
                                                        • 6296

                                                        #272
                                                        Originally posted by reverend
                                                        i am on the fence with the dodgers/arizona series. i say that because if the dodgers dont win game 1, i am not sure they will win a game in the series. i really like kershaw tomorrow, but after that, in games 2 and 3, i lean to the arizona pitchers. and the worst would be going into game 3 of the series with a c bet and having to beat haren...even though he was bad last time out.

                                                        so...my thought is that the dodgers win tomorrow, but i am not going to play it as a series chase, because of the risk in games 2 and 3. and i am not sold on how good the dodgers are going to be this season yet.

                                                        I don't like the Dodgers in the first two, but I really like the fact that Kuroda is slated to hurl versus Haren. You will be getting +money on the wager for a C bet, and I think that LAD will pull this one out.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DURANTULA
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 04-08-10
                                                          • 15

                                                          #273
                                                          what you think about the A's tonight?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • DURANTULA
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 04-08-10
                                                            • 15

                                                            #274
                                                            you think they have better odds than the Rockies?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • diegoelmestre
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-30-09
                                                              • 510

                                                              #275
                                                              Tigers... Fantastic.. keep doing that !!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • teecee
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 09-18-09
                                                                • 6296

                                                                #276
                                                                Hey! Good News! You might not need to make a DET C bet.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Echofox
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 10-31-09
                                                                  • 35

                                                                  #277
                                                                  HUGE for the Tigers! One more inning to shut em down and not have to play tomorrow's C!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • venture
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-25-09
                                                                    • 1158

                                                                    #278
                                                                    Wow what a win, how bout the 7th inning
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • GGPLAYER
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-26-09
                                                                      • 2981

                                                                      #279
                                                                      Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                                      Well this game is far from over...all it takes is one big inning. But I just had a bad feeling when I saw the line come way down like that. Plus Tha Diesel posted Det as his play and that D Willis would have a no-hitter today From the work I have seen from him here and in the NBA forum he is fade material.

                                                                      This is just like what I saw with JM basketball plays, etc. the moment a series goes to a C bet everyone runs for the hills. Like I said let's wait till the end of the game before we all hit the panic button here.
                                                                      NO more clogging this thread with what might happen. Game is not over till the last out. Lot of runs get scored after the 7th innning. All it takes is one hit, one error, etc and the game get's turned around.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • balls2wall
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-20-09
                                                                        • 2642

                                                                        #280
                                                                        Originally posted by Cosmo213
                                                                        I'm not making a C bet on Detroit. Forget about it.


                                                                        no need to bro


                                                                        cashed on B






                                                                        there seems to be an epidemic around here of people calling games way before they are over
                                                                        Comment
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