Reverend's 2010 MLB

**reverend** · 04-11-10, 11:17 PM

I have updated the 5 picks for Monday above. I have made 3 of the 5 bets tonight. These 3 lines are already moving higher, so I wanted to get on them before tomorrow. I will wait to bet Philly and SanFran until tomorrow.

As you can see, I have increased my "units to be won" on these bets. The Atlanta bet is to win 2 units, the other 4 bets will each be to win 1.5 units.

**SkivChef** · 04-11-10, 11:18 PM

eagerly anticipating the "exausting post"

**reverend** · 04-11-10, 11:19 PM

For Tuesday...

we will have 2 more A bets with:

Angels @ Yankees
&
Mets @ Rockies

**reverend** · 04-11-10, 11:22 PM

So the plan is to be at 7-0 for the week after Tuesday's games and be able to take a few days off until Friday!

**Eagle1958** · 04-11-10, 11:32 PM

Get the Phillies with Hamels -1 and 1/2 runs before the odds go higher. They are solid against the Nationals in their home opener.

**SkivChef** · 04-11-10, 11:34 PM

i took minus 1.5 too, couldn't stomach that juice!

**reverend** · 04-11-10, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by Eagle1958

Get the Phillies with Hamels -1 and 1/2 runs before the odds go higher. They are solid against the Nationals in their home opener.

great play guys. i will probably end up playing it on the -1 RL. i am going to wait and see what the line movement does overnight.

**reverend** · 04-11-10, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by khaden

I started out last week at 1/2 unit. For me, that was playing each series to win $50. This week will be $75 per series. This week looks like we should have between 12-15 series. So lets keep it rolling.

well done!

i agree. looking at the week ahead, i am seeing about that many series that i think will fall into my parameters and end up being series plays. lets replicate our 13-0 start this week!

**jbizzle** · 04-11-10, 11:45 PM

are the bets for the series to be won, or the actual games for Monday and tuesday only?

**SkivChef** · 04-11-10, 11:47 PM

see page 1 of the stingy thread

**reverend** · 04-11-10, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by jbizzle

are the bets for the series to be won, or the actual games for Monday and tuesday only?

not quite sure what you are asking...

the bets are for the first game of the series. if we lose that game, we roll over the losses + our initial profit goal into the bet for the 2nd game and so on...

so we are not saying that they will win the series. we are saying that they will win 1 game during the series. basically betting against a series sweep in a progressive manner

hope this helps. i will be posting a "methods, strategies and money management" post tomorrow

**jbizzle** · 04-11-10, 11:57 PM

that makes since, thanks for the clarity.BOL!

**Grosshhit** · 04-12-10, 12:35 AM

thanks Rev. These plays do look great. I am going to include Cleveland, Minny and Baltimore as very small plays. I really don't see Minny getting swept as this will be their first home series in their new park. Also Cleveland has been playing like shit but they did they take 2 out of 3 from Chicago, and Baltimore has to get a win at home sometime soon.

**Grosshhit** · 04-12-10, 12:51 AM

adding Toronto as well

**BernardMadoff** · 04-12-10, 02:08 AM

Guys you may want to jump on the Rangers/Indians series, I know it was last year but Texas beat them 8 out of 9 times and 5 of 6 on the road. Im on it.

**denn333** · 04-12-10, 02:29 AM

keep it goin..

**dyeguy** · 04-12-10, 03:01 AM

Why don't we let Reverend post his plays since this is his thread and not cause confusion by everyone posting what else they are playing.

**jolmscheid** · 04-12-10, 08:06 AM

I agree...this is Rev's thread...let him post the plays so we all know what the official plays are...thanks all

**GGPLAYER** · 04-12-10, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by reverend

I have updated the 5 picks for Monday above. I have made 3 of the 5 bets tonight. These 3 lines are already moving higher, so I wanted to get on them before tomorrow. I will wait to bet Philly and SanFran until tomorrow.

As you can see, I have increased my "units to be won" on these bets. The Atlanta bet is to win 2 units, the other 4 bets will each be to win 1.5 units.

Good move waiting on those lines. I jumped on SF thinking it would go up and it's already come down a little on my book. I have no idea when to pull the trigger on Philly but I am doing the -1 spread thing. No way I can -260 on any game. No matter what I truely hope these all win today because we are looking at some large B bets if they don't.

**khaden** · 04-12-10, 09:18 AM

!!!

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Good move waiting on those lines. I jumped on SF thinking it would go up and it's already come down a little on my book. I have no idea when to pull the trigger on Philly but I am doing the -1 spread thing. No way I can -260 on any game. No matter what I truely hope these all win today because we are looking at some large B bets if they don't.

No kidding---I really hope none of these go to a C be we will definitely be separating the men from the boys if that happens

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

I agree...this is Rev's thread...let him post the plays so we all know what the official plays are...thanks all

I will always have my official plays in BOLD.

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Guys you may want to jump on the Rangers/Indians series, I know it was last year but Texas beat them 8 out of 9 times and 5 of 6 on the road. Im on it.

that is a great trend. thanks for posting it. this game was on the fence for me, but because we have 5 games going today, 2 more going to be starting tomorrow, and about 5-7 that will open up on friday, i wanted to scale it back a bit and not get too aggressive in the 2nd week of the season.

but with that stat you mentioned, i would agree with you that texas should be good for at least 1 win. my only question mark on texas is their starting pitching, but usually their bats cover up for that weakness.

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Good move waiting on those lines. I jumped on SF thinking it would go up and it's already come down a little on my book. I have no idea when to pull the trigger on Philly but I am doing the -1 spread thing. No way I can -260 on any game. No matter what I truely hope these all win today because we are looking at some large B bets if they don't.

this is always going to be a mysterious battle. sometimes you will be right to wait until the morning and sometimes you should place the bets the night before. usually you can think through if the team is a big public team, and if so, the line will usually jump the next day...but again, not always. haha

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 10:04 AM

April 12:

(A) Bet: Detroit (ML) 2.8 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: St. Louis (ML) 3.22 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: Philadelphia (-1 RL) 3 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: San Francisco (ML) 2.47 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 3 Units to Win 2 Units

**spankadank** · 04-12-10, 10:12 AM

Hey Rev, What books give out -1 run lines?

**Cosmo213** · 04-12-10, 10:25 AM

I posted instructions on how to use that spreadsheet in stingyrivers' discussion thread. I'm definitely using it for the Philly game today, I haven't bet MLB before this year but that is the highest ML I've ever seen!

**bombCanada** · 04-12-10, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by reverend

April 12:

(A) Bet: Detroit (ML) 2.8 Units to Win 1.5 Units
(A) Bet: St. Louis (ML) 3.22 Units to Win 1.5 Units
(A) Bet: Philadelphia (-1 RL) 3 Units to Win 1.5 Units
(A) Bet: San Francisco (ML) 2.47 Units to Win 1.5 Units
(A) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 3 Units to Win 2 Units

Hi Reverend

There are 2 basic ways one can manage money on any individual bet... one can bet a variable amount to win a fixed amount, as you do in this thread. Or, one can bet a fixed amount to win a variable amount (which is what I have chosen to do in my thread). What is your reasoning behind choosing the first rather than the second?

Thanks and good luck.

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by bombCanada

Hi Reverend

There are 2 basic ways one can manage money on any individual bet... one can bet a variable amount to win a fixed amount, as you do in this thread. Or, one can bet a fixed amount to win a variable amount (which is what I have chosen to do in my thread). What is your reasoning behind choosing the first rather than the second?

Thanks and good luck.

my reasoning is that the goal of this chase system is to not lose a series. so with that being the case, i would rather have control over the amount won because if we accomplish our goal, then the amount risked will not come into play.

but, i do believe that betting a fixed amount, like you are doing, would lower ones risk and give you more control over your bankroll.

**Facepunch** · 04-12-10, 10:52 AM

Good calc. appreciate it.

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Cosmo213

I posted instructions on how to use that spreadsheet in stingyrivers' discussion thread. I'm definitely using it for the Philly game today, I haven't bet MLB before this year but that is the highest ML I've ever seen!

thanks for that spreadsheet cosmo!

**Cosmo213** · 04-12-10, 11:06 AM

I didn't make it!

I'm just detail-oriented.

**bombCanada** · 04-12-10, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by reverend

my reasoning is that the goal of this chase system is to not lose a series. so with that being the case, i would rather have control over the amount won because if we accomplish our goal, then the amount risked will not come into play.

Fair enough.

Originally posted by reverend

but, i do believe that betting a fixed amount, like you are doing, would lower ones risk and give you more control over your bankroll.

On the mark. So after one week, I'm +2.something units. While 2 units a week won't set the world on fire, I did indeed have little risk and good bankroll control (good thing since this is not my only waging activity). If my risk continues low, I'll increase my unit size.

Thanks again and good luck!

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by bombCanada

Fair enough.

On the mark. So after one week, I'm +2.something units. While 2 units a week won't set the world on fire, I did indeed have little risk and good bankroll control (good thing since this is not my only waging activity). If my risk continues low, I'll increase my unit size.

Thanks again and good luck!

Thanks for the great question. Like I am going to mention in my systems post, this thread is about a group of guys coming together for a common goal. We all may do things slightly differently, but we are here to win together. Thanks for your post, and your input. That is exactly how we will all get better. Would you mind posting a link to your thread. It will be good to stay up on the various teams and series we like as the season progresses.

**bombCanada** · 04-12-10, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by reverend

Thanks for the great question. Like I am going to mention in my systems post, this thread is about a group of guys coming together for a common goal. We all may do things slightly differently, but we are here to win together. Thanks for your post, and your input. That is exactly how we will all get better. Would you mind posting a link to your thread. It will be good to stay up on the various teams and series we like as the season progresses.

My system posts are here:

I tripped across a couple of things early on which need clarification and my intent is to repost my rules with the clarifications at the end of week 2 of regular season.

**reverend** · 04-12-10, 01:53 PM

thanks bombCanada!