Tell me about it.
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can someone please set up a PM/text service so official plays can be sent without the clutter thats bound to happen in this thread? i dont mind putting in the work, but im not sure of any website that offers free group texting... anyone know?Comment -
email group may be better like yahoogroups. Stingy is MIA for a while tho and the lines just came out.Comment -
Anybody know a good resource to research money lines and totals over the past couple of years?Comment -
By the way, for those who are curious, only 1 team got swept at home in this first batch of series: Houston Astros.
Nationals and Reds were the only teams who needed the 3rd game.Comment -
This is what I have for the first month. Starting off with a small selection of teams that are "solid" from years past. I will add more most likely once May comes and teams have 20 games under their belts.
Every person has different teams that they will be using, like I said I used a small selection, so I may not be "up" as much as others, but I hopefully will be minimizing the chances of losing a series by not playing as much. I have 19 or 20 series that I will be playing in April, and hoping for no losses, but there may be 1 or 2. Every loss equals 15-20 wins though, since it's a "chase" and on game 3's you'll be wagering 900 or so just to win 100 (on top of your losses from the previous 2 games)Comment -
I strongly recommend to chase "good" home teams only.
Tigers, Rockies & Angels look promising next week. Angels lost 2 straight but I don't think they will get swept at home by lowly A's.Comment -
To be fair, it would take a fav around -165-170 to get a game 3 bet to be that high. Not every series has that potential for loss. For example, Tampa Bay hosting the Yankees is averaging around -105 right now. If that series went to game 3, you'd be risking about $331 to profit $100.
This post is more an excuse to get my SBR points for the day than anything else, I admit.
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I don't think Oakland is a good road team. I just don't think they are a "lowly" team, nor do I think that game is a lock for the Angels.
For me, Detroit is looking great tomorrow, especially since the Indians just finished they're game about 5 minutes ago.Comment -
See my thread for the 5 series i will be playing over the weekendComment -
To be fair, it would take a fav around -165-170 to get a game 3 bet to be that high. Not every series has that potential for loss. For example, Tampa Bay hosting the Yankees is averaging around -105 right now. If that series went to game 3, you'd be risking about $331 to profit $100.
This post is more an excuse to get my SBR points for the day than anything else, I admit.
I understand that...I think when I was guessing those game 3's I was doing around -150.
I wouldn't even play Tampa hosting the Yankees. Most of the series I will be playing the home teams should be heavily favored and most likely -130 and above. But i'm doing more of a conservative home sweep series. Not playing 90 win teams vs 90 win teams in mine.
But I understand what you're getting at.Comment -
Detroit is a great game for tomorrow! game at 105. cleve may get a few hours sleep topsComment -
It's been a while since aI chimed in, so just in case there is anyone new to baseball gambling reading this thread.............This system will inevitably fail. I have personally tried this system and I have friends who have tried this system and variations of it. All have failed.
It is rare, but your picks will eventually get swept, and you will lose a ton. Please take my advice and save yourself the cash.
If you have any specific questions feel free to PM me and I will elaborate.Comment -
Ya SparJMU i think it is inevitable that the system will fail once or twice but with proper money management all the wins should cover any losses sustained in the system. I have been using small units and even if one of the teams does get swept this weekend, I will still be in positive money. This is my first time doing this system, so I dont have much credibility but I see it being a good thing all year.Comment -
I AGREE with Paul8888....I wish we could set up a group text service or email service or something so we get the picks right away.Comment -
If it always fails, please simply post or PM the results that show a loss in each year? Not sure I believe and am too lazy to check on my own.Comment -
whats up fellas...
sorry about fading away for the week... it just seemed like this took a life of its own with each their own version of this, and picks thread for this system... which is cool, and as I figure it, anyone playin this concept so far is way ahead as I am... following the original concept... which some of the newcomers it seems didnt get a chance to see, this strategy is perfect on the year, and hasnt even gone to any game three yet... in my picks thread I started with the 200 bankroll, which is now 500 eleven days into the season making these plays primarily...
a few thoughts:
everyone has been looking for "the official picks" since day one... there are no official picks... this is a concept that I think spank started up and we all pitched in and fine tuned it for a few weeks trying to filter the best possible results... in a sense, the "official picks" are the ones you guys have been hashing out in this thread... I suppose I could have kept posting calling my plays the official picks, but I think it best we all work them out...
the thing is, these picks sort of jump off the page... when I was posting mine, pretty much everyone came up with the same list as I was posting them, give or take one team... this thing almost dictates the picks themselves.... Houston at Chicago... 1 - 8 houston sweeping cubbies at wrigley? could happen, but we all know instinctively it has a likelihood in the 2 percentile... thus easy play...
so I suggest, everyone keep hashing them out as each week comes up, point-counterpoint style like you have been... and then, come away with your official picks off the list... I will definitely keep chiming in and posting my thoughts, just didnt seem there needed to be a picks thread when there were three or four running for the same thing... so far on the early season, I havent lost making these plays, as I think is the case for all of us, which makes this a big success so far... it certainly has quieted the flurry of critiques out there that tried to rain on the parade preseason... That is almost as sweet as all the cashes so far
another thing... I have found that it is best you do a little capping with this as you all have been, each week there seems to be about 10 to 12 possible plays, and then you should narrow the possible plays to the weeks strongest plays, based on numerous factors, such as pitching matchups, THE LINES (that has proven to be important), recent streaks (who is hot or cold going into the series) etc...
also, the original group kind of used -150 as an assumed average to calculate the chase, so far, a lot of these series are more like -180 or higher, for instance a handful of tomorrows possible plays according to the original concept are above -200 due to aces going up against non aces... that creates a big problem potentially, as chasing at -230 odds if it turn out you had to goes up exponentially... so you either have to pass on these series, or fiddle with using the - 1 RL... one thing I have been doing in a series like this is, skip game one with the huge odds... kind of hope for the ace to lose game one, and then start the chase for the remainder of the series, at lower odds and only a two game chase... this also hasnt lost yet...
finally... as we suspected, the teams should be evaluated for the current season now that we are into it... there are a few teams this year that dont seem to fit the mold of the backtested model I did... (for newcomers) the orginal grouping of teams with great success with this last year and previous years were:
Best - Boston, TB, NYY, CWS, LAD, LAA
Worst - Washington, Houston, Pitt, SD, KC
between opening day and sept 1 last year, these teams following this system, playing the best at home, and fading the worst on the road, was 214 -0 yes, thoroughly backtested, and undefeated...
this year in the first couple weeks, it is clear to me this... some of these teams are on a different level than they have been in the past... such as,
CWS do not seem as strong as expected, as well as LAD and LAA
Washington and Pitt are showing slight signs of removing themselves from the bottom of the league this year, and against the right opponents could definitely pull off a sweep...
on the flipside, Baltimore definitely seems to have put themselves in the worst category this year with Houston which in my opinion would be lucky to win 60 games this year, kind of tough to sweep any series when on average you win one out of every three games... Some people preseason were speculating Toronto to be faded, I know it is very early, but I dont see what they have shown thus far as a worst team...
Philly still scares me a bit, but, their allstar lineup is ridiculous and it probably will be nearly impossible to be swept at home... on the flipside, I am even more nervous about ST L than I was in preseason, they struggle immensely to score runs, not good for this system...
Here is my revised list of best and worst after seeing some on the field results from the current year and pretty much the plays I have been making the past week:
Best: NYY, Bos (but slipping), TB, PHI
on the fringe best: LAA, LAD, CWS, SFG, Oak, Minn
Worst: Houston, Baltimore, SD, KC
fringe worst: Cleveland, Washington, Pitt
Keep up the great thread guys, this has come a long way, and so far very profitable...
another side note... for those not liking the chase aspect... there was a critic of this hardcore at the beginning, fupptin or something like that, I wish he was still around because he said he would give 1000 dollars if we went without hitting a game three in the first 15 series... I know I am there already, meaning 15 plays without getting to game three... but anyway, he made an argument that if this was profitable in the longrun, then it should be also positive EV in just betting all the games individually with flat betting... and he said, you wouldnt because you know there is no value in doing that.... well... now that we have been making these plays, I almost think he was right... this is a longrun profitable play with the chase, that was proven by the backtesting over 4 years... so if that is true, there must be some + EV aspect in these games... I have tested it yet, but I am beginning to think if you made these plays, and just flat bet the games all year, you would show a profit after the year... the reason being, you get most of the wins in game one, and the series stops... The first 6 posted plays this year were game one wins... this almost never goes to a game three, so in other words... you get a ton of 1 unit wins in game one... in the series that go two games before the win you break even, minus juice, and in the handful you go to a game three, betting each game flat and individual you would lose 2 units on the series....
over the past few years, the break down percentage wise of all series is in the ballpark of 65% game one win, 25% game two win and 10% game three win... so if you apply the math, this probably does just fine over the season just playing this without a chase....
Most were interested in the progressive betting scheme with this: shooting for 150 wins, increasing unit by 50% after every 10 wins... basically turns 200 bucks into 30 K on september 1... well, the chase is needed to make this happen... and by making these plays I got the 200 up to 500, the projected schedule to be at the end of this coming sunday was 450, so way ahead of schedule... lets keep it rolling guys
and again, nice work guys, you all have made this strategy even better with each post... in fact, for those looking for the official plays if there has to be such plays, I would say, the ones discussed all year in this thread is where they are (no twitter necessary)Comment -
stingy, it's good to know u r alive. well said.
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I realize that I can make my own decisions, and play any team I'd like, but for the best fringe teams you have LAA, LAD, CWS, and OAK. Where does St. Louis fit in to this equation? Maybe it was an oversight. I don't know. Anyway, good luck with your venture.Comment -
Stingy glad to see you are well welcome back, please stick aroundComment -
Stingy great to hear you again and all your thoughts. I just want to get your take on putting SF in that Fringe Best group. Right now I would trust them more than LAD and LAA.Comment -
Did the system die before it even started
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