At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

[DeHoyos]

Do you mean to tell me that NY BOS and TB will all go 0-2 on their 1st home series???....lmfao!!!!!

Or that Pitt Was and SD will go a combined 6-0 on the road to start the campaign....If so I'm throwing another 400 in there.....

Let's see Ny's got the Angels and Texas
Boston has NY then Tampa eeewwww
LAD has Arizona and San Fran hmmm
oh wow LAA has Minny and Oakland that's a nice setup for 2 wins
Tampa has Baltimore and NY they would have to go 0-5 facing a 10 game road trip in this scenario....

[stingyrivers]

lol... point well taken... in the hypothetical worst case 20 is too high for 400... but based on the idea that you generally win a lot of game ones, 20 is probably reasonably safe for a 400 dollar BR

so.... 400 bankroll... 20 dollar unit.... every ten wins increases you by 50%, if you up the unit by 50% after every ten wins, then you turn 400 to just over 50K in 200 wins... but that is assuming you never lose a series, and that you can accumulate 200 wins before sept 1

[DeHoyos]

That is tremendous and I think it's worth the risk especially if I get my 400 matched by sportsbetting.com...

Then that's where the handicapping will take place...How many sweeps will have to be avoided????

SD starts with a 6 game road trip Arizona and Colorado.....way worse spot for them then the other bottom 3

[stingyrivers]

last year if you started with 400 on opening day, and played BOS, NYY, TB, LAA, CWS, LAD at home (114-0) and faded Wash, Pitt, KC, Hou and SD (102-0) and after every ten wins you increased your bet by 50% on september 1 you had over 50 K

one sweep during the year kills that though, and because of the progessive strategy, it would knock that way way down, you would still show a decent profit, but nowhere near 50K

[DeHoyos]

wow

sorry i must load a bowl now....

[stingyrivers]

I agree, this is a good construct, but in the moment decisions are going to have to be made... I can tell you that historically, these types of sweeps dont happen that much across the league, for the better than average teams 1 or 2 tops in any given year, so there isnt all that much to avoid, but because of the success rate needed, we need to avoid any possible... I am going to be doing the progressive strategy with you... so if we can avoid all sweeps, we will have a monster summer for sure

[DeHoyos]

What about a ML average for sweeps that occurred in the past few years....If we looked at that we might think twice about opening night...

They might brew up another massacre to puncture a wound in our bankrolls right off the bat....

These will probably be the shortest opening day home lines Boston has had in a long time.....
I'm already getting nervous for gm3 Pettitte/Lester....

I think CWS and LAA could be series plays also on opening day....They look alot better than goin up against NY....
At this point I'd take an inflated series play on PHI over the drubbing Boston may get.....

[stingyrivers]

lol... I noticed that earlier... I think what this does is it puts this to the hardest test right away, if we get by that, we should be good all year.... you got to remember that boston has Beckett and Lackey going in the first two... Beckett looked decent today... I just cant see NYY as good as they are sweeping the series at fenway to open the year, I live in New England and people around here would be nauseaus for a week if that happened.... the sox will fight tooth and nail to get at least one... now NYY at TB in series 2, thats another story... I am going to be keeping a close on on how TB starts out in the first 3 days before that one... as much as I think the sox will not get swept... I do think there is a slightly better than 50 percent chance we will be making a (b) bet in that series.... the upside there is I think Burnett is seriously overrated and that is coming from generally a yankee fan my whole life

[DeHoyos]

The fact that they would be nauseaus for a week if that happened would make the man with the best highlights in baseball smile... And then, to make the redsox fight tooth and nail to get at least one would make a huge statement and would drive ratings up for the next series....

Hey LAA gettin one at home Vs. Minny is not soundin too bad.....

[stingyrivers]

I am definitely going to be on CWS monday for these plays... I would venture to say if you looked back at all the opening day home series, they almost never get swept as far as the decent teams being at home... If boston makes you nervous on the first play, you can always pass on game one, and if the sox lose, which they very well might, do a two game chase on 2 and 3... that way if they get swept, you lose 5 units instead of 15... and I just dont see the sweep happening even if NYY takes game one, which if it wasnt for getting involved in this system, I would have probably been on NYY in game one, especially if it is even money, which is probably what the ML will be -110 or -105/-115

and LAA hasnt gotten swept at home in 3 years

[DeHoyos]

I say Philly should be added as a play also....They know they got the Nats again to open up the season at home do you think their lookin past this first series???? I rate PHI and LAA as much better series plays than the Sawx....When was the last time a team was swept to open up the season??? Then add The Nats and league champions to the equation....

I don't know about you Stingy but I already have the 50K spent in my head.....

lmao

[stingyrivers]

look back at Philly... no doubt they are going to be going to the NLCS at the least, but... they have a shaky track record with this... last year they were 18 - 3 they take home sweeps every once in a while... I think mostly because their bullpen gives away so many games... but for the opener, this week Philly probably is pretty solid... their past couple years records with this system is the only reason they arent in my top 5

[DeHoyos]

I say Phils/Nats beats Sox/Yanks for this system regardless the time of year....Have the Nats ever swept Philly???

Anyway I'm in for the $400 to win 50k plan so hit me up here or at wagerline.....

[stingyrivers]

lol... I hear you bro... we got a long way to go toward that 50 K, and I think many game twos to sweat out over the summer before we would get there.... but the numbers are there, just have to not catch a sweep... I have been working systems like this for years trying to catch that compound interest in your favor, but it has always fallen off track somewhere along the way... I tend to agree with you, Philly isnt losing three to the Nats in front of their home crowd...

the reason why 50 K is a possibilty... Einstein was once asked whats the most powerful force in the universe... he responded with... Compound interest....

it is extremely true, that is all this progressive strategy does it get compound interest working for you as opposed to against you... kind of like the banks and credit card companies do for them

the sick thing is... if you pull off the perfect summer and turn 400 to 50 K using compound progression.... the math is the same every year... what does that mean about coming into opening day 2011 with 50 k to start

[DeHoyos]

[DeHoyos]

I told you Stingy...The money is already spent...

So then it'd be possible to make 100k with a starting bankroll of $1000 with those same 200 wins....

If they bring the brooms out it's over...

The Cards get Houston with out Carpy but then the Mets with Carpy and Wainwright for gm2 and 3 not bad.....Their not gettin swept there...They'd get Santana in the 1st game.. That might be a nice one to lay off for game 1...

[stingyrivers]

yep... 1000 bank roll using a 50 dollar unit in 200 wins would be 6 figures... the math is there... it is the not losing part that needs to happen.... last year according to these plays, it did... so hopefully this year follows last year.... you could even play it safer with a 1000 dollar bank roll and in 200 wins have 60 or 70 grand

basically by upping your bet after every 10 wins you are doubling your money every 20 wins, well, the growth varies....

so...

10 sets of 20 wins 400 dollar start.... next reply will breakdown the progression

[stingyrivers]

whoops.... my bad, my progression was actually upping your unit after 20 wins not 10 so that means if you actually did it every ten... wow, you dont even want to know the math on that

[DeHoyos]

I'm gonna show this thread to my wife....

Thanks Stingy!!!!



Hey Stingy I'm gonna buy me a Lincoln Mark LT with my 50K how bout you????? lmfao

It's called F-150 Platinum for Mexico now....

[stingyrivers]

400 to start... 20 dollar unit... up unit by 50% after every twenty wins



20 wins 800 roll new unit 30

40 wins 1400 roll new unit 50

60 wins 2400 roll new unit 80

80 wins 4000 roll new unit 120

100 wins 6400 roll new unit 200

120 wins 10400 roll new unit 300

140 wins 16400 roll new unit 400

160 wins 24400 roll new unit 600

180 wins 36400 roll new unit 800

200 wins 52400 roll congratulations your sportsbook just cut you off

now we just need 200 straight wins... but it did happen last year

[DeHoyos]

800 a Unit!!!!!!

[DeHoyos]

Obviously we're not going to pick the top 6 best and worst teams at this point so like you said we should explore other series early on until we get an idea of who's for real....

The Phillies are for real and the Nats aint.I rest my case your honor....

[stingyrivers]

lol, yep, but it is all relative... if you notice, the 800 unit is actually a smaller percentage of the bankroll than the 20 dollar unit is of the 400 starting roll... it is set up so that if you do take a loss late in the year, you still have a lot of money built up and essentially percentage wise each step is a slightly safer bet....

but yeah I think if it ever got to that point you have to get creative with your books, a book isnt going to let you roll up a progression like that especially if you are at the 800 a clip range...

but, if you can piece together a summer without a sweep, I think you will look good in that Lincoln

[stingyrivers]

I think you are right about the top 6 best and worst, for two reasons... one it constricts you into taking a team that might take a sweep and it was a forced play by the system.... and two, if you used just the 6 teams listed, you would only get about 120 plays on the season... which falls way short of the goal of 200, so for both reasons we probably have to broaden the scope a bit

[DeHoyos]

Teams that won't sweep seem like the better play....What's the ratio on teams that never got swept to teams that never swept....

How bout a chase for every game Grienke doesnt pitch.....

Then only won 5 out of 25 that stretch last year....

[stingyrivers]

I thought the same thing... if you go back three years, it actually works the opposite, the good teams are better at not getting swept than the piss poor teams at not sweeping.... although, that all depends on which teams you have in each group...

in other words, that statement was based on NYY/BOS/TB compared to KC/Pitt/Wash over the past three years.... they both showed a profit... but the good teams showed a bigger profit mostly because of KC in 2007... they got some sweeps on the road

[DeHoyos]

Yeah but the losses are less because the piss poor team's lines aren't inflated most of the time...

The line on a piss poor team would be normal on the road against a let's say a Cincinnatti....

[stingyrivers]

the piss poor teams have some nice trends to fade... I think the OP stated that Pitt hasnt won four straight road games in over four years

the losses would be the same I think.... you are always trying for one unit, and with the bad teams you would be betting the fav, so still laying the juice

[DeHoyos]

KC lost 10 straight last year(7 of em at home) with Grienke so.....Scott's went 2-0 vs Grienke....

[stingyrivers]

I was saying that earlier in the thread to someone... doing this system and fading grienke all year doesnt scare me.... you probably showed a profit last year if you faded him all year... he was 15 -7 and all his no decisions they essentially lost, and every time he pitched KC was -200 or so... he is a 22 game winner on any other team, the team around him is AAA worthy....

I unloaded on him big last year when he was like 5-0 or 5-1 with a 1.00 era, playing some crappy team like seattle.... he pitched a complete game and gave up one run on 5 hits....

I lost the bet

they actually lost the game 1 - 0

in the eigth KC got a lead off double, moved the runner to third, and couldnt score him, it was sick

so you are going to lose some games on the season fading grienke, but his surrounding team will bail you out on the season in doing it

[DeHoyos]

They need a guy that says Bingo!!!! every time they hit a homerun.....

Ive' sat thru some of those Grienke sagas its no easy task...

Its like a royals and rays triple header that lasts 12 hours..

I think I'm gonna take sportsbetting up on their 150% bonus offer.....thoughts??

[stingyrivers]

lol... I could imagine... I actually feel bad for the guy... the way he is pitching, he could go down as one of the alltime greats, and he is going to be robbed of 7 to 10 wins a season because he is trapped in KC

now all that being said... KC comes out and sweeps their opener

actually, one thing that does make me nervous about fading KC is their staff is solid, Meche is for real too, and they have high hopes for Bannister

it is a good thing they have a AAA lineup and ridiculous bullpen

[DeHoyos]

OK Stingy your gonna convince my wife to give me 2 grand.....let's work on that for a while...

[DeHoyos]

Seattle will not sweep Oakland without Cliff Lee and if you skip King Felix's game and they win you gotta 3 gamer goin....

No Lilly for the Cubbies they wont sweep Atlanta in their home opener....

[stingyrivers]

lol... I think every week there are going to be really solid options.... the 2 grand proposition, that could take some work.... I remember now why I was thinking 20 was reckless for a 400 bankroll....

lets just say you take a losing series, someone gets swept

30/20 75/50 190/125

total loss of almost 300, and you started with 400.... thats why, a loss early would kill you...

thats why I was thinking of a lower unit.... I think a seasoned pro at this, which most wouldnt try this, but if they would, they would say for a 20 unit your bankroll should be minimum 2000

the results are the same though... they are hinged on the unit size, not bankroll size... doing the same progression would still yield 50 K on a perfect season.... the 2000 would just be to keep you in the game if there was an early sweep