At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

spankmythighs · 02-28-10, 10:37 PM

I forgot to add MIL and CHC aswell. The are a good bet on one win at home. 2008, MIL was 21-2 and CHC were 23-1.

jhack704 · 02-28-10, 10:53 PM

so could you give an example on the units and when you play these games/series?

spankmythighs · 02-28-10, 11:50 PM

On the above teams you would play all home series and risk enough to win 2 units or $200. If you lose the first then the martingale system comes into effect. The next game you would bet enough to win the $200 and cover your loss in the first game and so on until the series is over. Then start over on the next series.

rdo37 · 03-01-10, 12:13 AM

Looks good, I'll be trying this system this year but maybe with a few modifications. What would happen if you tweaked the system a bit and just played the top 5 teams with the best home records for the past 5 years. I need to go research to see which teams these are, but would it reduce the losses in your record?
And whats your average loss size when you lose a series? Typically these teams are favored in their home series, so to lose 4 games in a row with some odds like -180 or -200 would put a decent dent in a bankroll

mlb · 03-01-10, 01:56 AM

Very true .. I like this system as well ... I will be doing something similar but I will be looking for value and different angles but using series betting In general as I have begun to call it

StewiE · 03-01-10, 08:46 AM

this sounds good. u have plans to have a thread going with your plays?

Jaug · 03-01-10, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

I forgot to add MIL and CHC aswell. The are a good bet on one win at home. 2008, MIL was 21-2 and CHC were 23-1.

As an example if Milwaukee lost one 4-game hs assuming average favorites of -150.

300 to win 200
750 to win 500
1875 to win 1250
4687.5 to win 3125

A loss would sum $ 7612.5 or approx 38 units.

Just showing here that the losses you will take will be huge, I would not recommend anyone new to sports betting doing this. If you have been betting for a while then I would not recommend chasing anyways, check out the handicapper think tank.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 02:44 PM

True, but after the first couple of losses the odds tend to get much better and yes there was one 4 game series where MIL lost all four in 2008 but I was only playing the top 7 teams and they didn't count. Also because MIL is not a dominating team the odds for the series where they lost 4 at home were: -169, -117, -105, +131. One four game sweep at home on a team that wasn't one of the top 8 home records, is pretty good. The 13 losses were all 3 game sweeps and the odds were similar to the MIL series where the odds got better and better. I'll get you guys the record on the teams I mentioned above for when they win the first game and win another in the series. For the past 2 seasons, Angels - 51-0, NYY - 44-1, BOS - 45-2, LAD - 44-1, TB - 46-1, and CWS - 46-1. More than half the home series sweep losses for the past 2 years are by the Phillies and the Twins. If you stick with these 6 teams, you'll be makin money.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 02:55 PM

I also might look at playin the other end of the spectrum aswell. Take PITT, ARZ, and WASH for instance, they have the worst home records. Play all home series with these teams with the visitor to win. I'll get you guys the stats on the 4 worst teams over the past 2 years.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 03:11 PM

You could just play any team against WASH at home.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 06:45 PM

Based on the odds of that 4-game MIL home series, you would have actually lost $3958. Almost half of what you proposed. But like I said, there has only been one 4 game home sweep and thats if you include MIL.

whatsgood5 · 03-01-10, 06:48 PM

Seems like a pretty good system. I've never r

eally used a chase system before this year, but I think I may give this a try this year, will do it for very little though seeing how I'm just starting out with chase systems though of course. Good luck this year man

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 07:00 PM

Yes, and GL to you aswell. I will post games that I have bet on throughout the season and keep track in my spreadsheet for all of you.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 07:48 PM

I will probably play against PITT on the road since they have never strung more than 4 wins together on the road in 4 years. I take out the home games and string the away series' together. Might look to do this against WASH too.

Bones402 · 03-01-10, 10:41 PM

Where are you looking to find the stats on home records and away records for teams?

dwaechte · 03-01-10, 10:43 PM

Amazing.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 11:23 PM

MLB.com.

spankmythighs · 03-01-10, 11:24 PM

Amazing?? Care to elaborate.

Bones402 · 03-02-10, 12:46 AM

Im going to research these a bit

Rio DiNero · 03-02-10, 12:52 AM

Mr. Morrison?

xxdjstriderxx · 03-02-10, 06:06 AM

did i hear system and martingale? next thread

spankmythighs · 03-02-10, 07:50 PM

Bad choice of words. Guess I should have said chase instead of martingale. If you want to call proven stats and facts a system, so be it. Gonna make my bets on facts and stats rather than guts and feelings. Besides, you'll waste more time and energy trying to decifer each game, each night. My way is already set, just go to your book site and make the bets, no dickin' around. Have fun with your homework. I'll be on the course. And for those of you who like this "system", I'll keep you posted. Home series' start middle of April. Later

PS--- Mr. Morrison?????

bsebal7 · 03-02-10, 10:56 PM

Looks good.... looking forward to trying this out... and doing the biggest home favorite chase as well... Thanks for sharing!!!

mdemps9190 · 03-02-10, 11:05 PM

so basically you just play these teams' that they won't get swept at home? I mean its risky but possible I guess

spankmythighs · 03-03-10, 12:42 AM

Not much risk. Like I said before, if you played BOS, TB, CWS, NYY, LAD, and LAA over the past 2 years your record would be 276-6 for at least 1 home win per home series. Let me break the 6 sweeps down:

2 by BOS July 28, 29, 30 2008 and Sept 28, 29, 30
Odds for BOS -166 -121 -173 -203 -225 +145

LAD had one on May 9, 10, 11 2008 Odds -184 -168 and -138

TB had one on Sept 4, 5, 6 2009 Odds -120 -185 and -116

CWS had one on Sept 21, 22, 23 2009 Odds +113 -153 and -127

NYY had one on Apr 29, 30 and May 1 2008 Odds -135 -127 and -110

So you average $2500 loss on a series sweep give or take x 6 = -$15000
but your gains are 276 x $200 = +$55200 - 15000 = $40200 profit in 2 years. Not bad. What do you guys think?

Bones402 · 03-03-10, 12:58 AM

Im thinking teams for 2010 as Yankees, Red Sox, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. What do you think of these teams?

eidolon · 03-03-10, 01:06 AM

Play dogs at home that never win on the road.

reno cool · 03-03-10, 01:13 AM

one of the problems is you can't go by what good teams did previously, because going forward you don't know who the good teams will be.
At the very least you need to establish who the "good teams" are based on available info prior to the year you test.

spankmythighs · 03-03-10, 03:39 PM

Previous years results seem to work for me. Here are some other interesting facts and stats:

Boston and the Yankees in 2009 had no more than 2 consecutive losses at home when home games are strung together except when Boston got swept in the last series of 3 games.

The LAD, LAA, MINN, CWS and Rays in 2009 had no more than 4 consecutive losses at home when home game series are strung together.

mdemps9190 · 03-03-10, 03:51 PM

I think a good filter maybe would be to stop the system on september 1st, like most baseball systems you never know when a team is going to throw in the towel.

bozeman · 03-03-10, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

This is my record when betting to win 2 units ($200) on at least one home series win using the martingale system. The teams I used had the best home records over the past couple of years. BOS, NYY, MINN, CWS, LAD, LAA, PHI, and TB. The 13 indicates a sweep at home by the visitors and I only use 3 and 4 game home stands. Dollar figure +$54000 over 2 years. I started with $10000 but the bigger the bank roll, the more units you may want to go after. Next year I will double to 4 units. Also, I found that 8 out of 10 home series that start off with a win, have one more before the end of the series. Keep that in mind if you want to make a few more bucks on a series but I only do this when there are back to back home stands just in case there isnt a second win in the series, then I carry it over to the next home stand. Don't do this very often with a team that has more home sweeps in the past. Later and good luck.

Good point, you're very spectative man

. I guess if you you add some other factors to it you get more wins and less losses. Thanks for the info

spankmythighs · 03-03-10, 04:14 PM

You maybe right. I noticed 2 of the 6 home series sweeps that I listed would have been avoided if stopped on Sept 1st. But it would have still been up in Sept. One more thing, last year when betting to win 2 units (my units being $100, so $200) on every home game and chasing with TB, LAD, BOS, NYY, MINN, LAA, and CWS you would have been up +312 units on the season. If you guys want a simplified way of betting, there you have it. We determine the teams we think will have the best home records strung together and we all make money.

spankmythighs · 03-03-10, 09:30 PM

Hey Boze thx for the point.

So here is what I have decided. I will play all home games with BOS, NYY, LAA, LAD, MINN, COL, SF, and TB with chases and I will play against all games for the Pirates and Orioles on the road with chasing. This should bring in around +450 units or more. Tidy little profit. I have found too that just about any team above .650 or .700 at home has a pretty gd record with at least one home win in a home series. I will post my bets. It may be a little confusing but I'll keep everyone informed. GLA

fastpitch_45 · 03-03-10, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Hey Boze thx for the point.

So here is what I have decided. I will play all home games with BOS, NYY, LAA, LAD, MINN, COL, SF, and TB with chases and I will play against all games for the Pirates and Orioles on the road with chasing. This should bring in around +450 units or more. Tidy little profit. I have found too that just about any team above .650 or .700 at home has a pretty gd record with at least one home win in a home series. I will post my bets. It may be a little confusing but I'll keep everyone informed. GLA

Thanks. Look forward to following