2010 MLB Plays

[Dexter]

Dexter,

FWIW, your Sunday listing was hit locally and I'm also looking at 1H/2H. Continued success to you this season.

lets get it..

[Dexter]

Sunday 4/18:

(2x) cards -1.5 (-110)

(1x) over phillies 9.5
(1x) bluejays -130

[ragiche]

4/18

Braves ML [ -140 ] ( LARGE )

Dodgers RL [ +130 ] ( LARGE )

Nationals ML [ -115 ] ( MEDIUM )

Astros ML [ +180 ] ( MEDIUM )

Rangers ML [ +155 ] ( MEDIUM )

Heavy ( 10x ) , Slightly Heavy ( 8x ) , Large ( 5x ) , Medium ( 3x ) , Small ( 1x ).
For those whose been asking. BOL to all guys .

[Dexter]

Monday 4/19:

(2x) cubs -120
(1x) giants -130
(1x) redsox -1.5 (+130)

[Dexter]

Week 1: 12-10 (-1.9 units)

Week 2: 11-10 (-3.5 units)

YTD: 23-20 (-5.4 units)

[Dexter]

Baseball Autobets will begin this week - still contemplating my unit size for each. wanna stay with 3 games per day but sometimes i may have more just with autobets. thinking i will still just throw 1-2 units down for now.

[peterpan19]

I know you are all not so much into chase systems, but I found a pretty good system that worked well the last 3 years, most of the time only a 2 game chase, should have around 60 plays per year, but also 3-4 losses, goal is 40 units. As soon as I have a game I will let you know guys.

[Dexter]

I know you are all not so much into chase systems, but I found a pretty good system that worked well the last 3 years, most of the time only a 2 game chase, should have around 60 plays per year, but also 3-4 losses, goal is 40 units. As soon as I have a game I will let you know guys.

nice...bring it

[Dexter]

the redsox have sucked it up without ellsbury....gonna wait on playing them until hes back in the lineup.

[ragiche]

4/19

Cardinals ML [ -125 ] ( SLIGHTLY HEAVY )

[peterpan19]

lopez looked very good in spring training, he might pitch 6 solid innings, but that bullpen is horrible right now...
GL ragiche

[Dexter]

i'm starting to read up on offseason moves and figured why not get the thread started. as always, this is a group thread. feel free to post your plays/analysis. my plays will range from 1-5 units with an occasional heavier play. here are the autobets i will use coming into this season. all 3 were around 500 last year, but i believe in the theories and have tweaked them slightly:

A1 - play a pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. play gets moved to the runline when the moneyline is 150 or >. the pitcher with the 1.00 or less whip must have the better ranked bullpen era behind him.

A2 - play the over when both pitchers have a whip of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 1-5 in era.

A3 - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

i will rarely play a run line favorite this year as it did not prove successful for me last year after moderate success in 2008. mostly light favorites, dogs and totals.

above are revisions i have made to the autobets. im factoring bullpen era into the equation since most pitchers cant get past 6-7 innings anymore.

i will use the era stats the night before that days games since i usually make my plays early.

[Dexter]

Tue 4/20:

(2x) rockies -130
(1x) mets -110
(1x) rays -110

[peterpan19]

nice...bring it

well no plays so far, I had some early on (first 10 games), but I usually filter them out and I put only a haf unit on some (that would have met the reg filter, based on last year), but lets see if we have some on wednesday

also as a side note, I know you dont like JM and you dont continue over 2 seasons in mlb, but if you would, you would be 14-0 so far this year, but so many crap teams, that you just cant feel comfortable betting on them

today I am playing COL (-140 got it late) for 3.5 units
BOS (-140) to win 1 unit

GL

[solobass]

Yeah dex I lost on the giants too....in extras. It happens. Cashed on the rays mariners and mariners runline.

[ragiche]

4/20

D-backs RL [ +145 ] ( LARGE )

Whitesox ML [ +102 ] ( MEDIUM )

Royals ML [ +129 ] ( MEDIUM )

Dodgers ML [ -127 ] ( MEDIUM )

Athletics ML [ +145 ] ( MEDIUM )

[Dexter]

Wed 4/21:

(1x) under twins 9 - huff has a .86 whip through 2 starts and liriano a 1.15. the twins bullpen is ranked 4th in era while the indians at 18th. i see the twins completely shutting down the indians tomorrow, which likely leaves this up to the indians pen - early line movement indicates under is the sharp play.

(2x) bluejays -110 - greinke has given up 11er in 10ip last 2 seasons in tor (kc 0-2). marcum had 1 start at home in the last 2 seasons (2009) vs kc giving up 1er in 7ip (tor win). kc has one of the worst bullpens so far ranked 30th in era while the jays sit at 14. love the sharp early movement at pinnacle.

(1x) whitesox -110 - buehrle has a whip of 1.14 through 3 games while davis a 1.54 through 2. huge pen advantage for chicago ranked 1st vs 22nd for tb. buehrle has started at home vs tb each of the past 2 seasons winning both games and yielding just 2er over 15ip.

[Dexter]

well no plays so far, I had some early on (first 10 games), but I usually filter them out and I put only a haf unit on some (that would have met the reg filter, based on last year), but lets see if we have some on wednesday

also as a side note, I know you dont like JM and you dont continue over 2 seasons in mlb, but if you would, you would be 14-0 so far this year, but so many crap teams, that you just cant feel comfortable betting on them

today I am playing COL (-140 got it late) for 3.5 units
BOS (-140) to win 1 unit

GL

JM is 14-0 so far? how can that be if no teams have swept another yet and played for a second time....

the angle is to play the team that got swept if i recall...(with some filters)..

[peterpan19]

JM is 14-0 so far? how can that be if no teams have swept another yet and played for a second time....

the angle is to play the team that got swept if i recall...(with some filters)..

its not really JM, but if a team swept a team last year and now it plays that team for the first time this year, just JM play it and you would be 14-0, difficult to backtest of course, but I noticed that i worked last year too and this year its working too so far...with no filters... later on in may when we will have the first real JM plays you have to apply some filters, or basicly go with the teams you feel comfortable with and cut the crap...

anyway 2 plays for the chase system today, both are plus money and it could very well be that we loose one of them, but the pitching matchups at least for today look solid and considering that we get plus money we shouldnt loose too much:
OAK ML
PIT ML
waiting on the lines right now, because I think we should get a better line later

my two plays hit yesterday and I dont see anything else so far today

GL

[Dexter]

Wed 4/21:

(1x) under twins 9 - huff has a .86 whip through 2 starts and liriano a 1.15. the twins bullpen is ranked 4th in era while the indians at 18th. i see the twins completely shutting down the indians tomorrow, which likely leaves this up to the indians pen - early line movement indicates under is the sharp play.

(2x) bluejays -110 - greinke has given up 11er in 10ip last 2 seasons in tor (kc 0-2). marcum had 1 start at home in the last 2 seasons (2009) vs kc giving up 1er in 7ip (tor win). kc has one of the worst bullpens so far ranked 30th in era while the jays sit at 14. love the sharp early movement at pinnacle.

(1x) whitesox -110 - buehrle has a whip of 1.14 through 3 games while davis a 1.54 through 2. huge pen advantage for chicago ranked 1st vs 22nd for tb. buehrle has started at home vs tb each of the past 2 seasons winning both games and yielding just 2er over 15ip.

(1x) phillies -1.5 (+110)

[ragiche]

4/21

SFO/SD Under 8 [ -115 ] ( LARGE )

[Dexter]

(1x) phillies -150 - cancelled out of the run line play and went with the ML.

[Dexter]

Thur 4/22:

(2x) under yankees 8 (A3) - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

[darkenergy]

Thur 4/22: (2x) under yankees 8 (A3) - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

Damm.....am on the OVER, and my only play today

[AzNDooM]

Thur 4/22:

(2x) under yankees 8 (A3) - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

I love this pick, Ive got my system on the OVER/UNDER set to 7 and the records so far this year for my O/U is 60-24-4. Hopefully this cash, improving the A3 filter system ^^

[peterpan19]

OAK (+163) and PIT (+144) ML didnt work out, today we take them again.

Even worst case (we loose both today), we should only be down a little bit less than 4 units, so nothing to worry about.

GL

[Dexter]

Thur 4/22:

(2x) under yankees 8 (A3) - play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

(1x) over dodgers 9.5 - padilla has a 1.53 whip so far this year and leake 1.62. walks will lead to an early visit to the pen for both teams. reds have the 28th ranked pen era and the dodgers 25th. always love the overs in this little league park. dodgers have gone over at an 86% clip this year - reds 62%

(1x) nats +1.5 (-110) - fading jiminez off the 128 pitch no hitter 5 days ago. livan has been red hot to start the season with a .00 era and a .87 whip thus far.

[fly fisher]

good luck today Dexter, lets get them in baseball and basketball today.

[ragiche]

4/22

Whitesox ML [ -102 ] ( HEAVY )

Mets ML [ -160 ] ( LARGE )

Athletics ML [ +165 ] ( MEDIUM )

DET/LAA Under 8.5 [ -100 ] ( MEDIUM )

[Dexter]

thx cc!!

[Dexter]

cmon nats...lose by one so i can feel like a genius..

[darkenergy]

cmon nats...lose by one so i can feel like a genius..

Good call/system on UNDER yanks today Dex.

[Dexter]

thx de...

[Dexter]

perfect - the dodgers bullpen did not disappoint.

[shoebox]

nice call on dodgers and yanks!!