8/3:
Reds -130 F5 (0.6u)
Reds -131 (0.5u)
Angels -127 (1u)
Braves -130 (1u)
Royals F5 +190 (0.7u)
Reds Reasoning: I wrote about Mahle last week in what was one of my biggest plays of the year so far. Tonight is a similar story. Mahle has had great success against the Twins hitters. We get a good price tonight solely bc of Kenta Maeda. I have backed him plenty in the past but the Reds have some solid numbers against him. I have this game lined closer to -147 for the Reds. We still have to deal with the Reds bullpen which is why i split the F5/Full game but the added guys should help some. One thing to be careful of is Mahle has not been near as good at home this year for whatever reason. Still its not enough to scare me away. Take the Reds up to -137ish.
Angels Reasoning. Jordan Lyles toes the rubber tonight and yet again i am showing some value against him. He usually has no trouble allowing runners, giving up runs, and has trouble missing bats. The Angels lineup tonight has some decent numbers against him but the main thing that jumps out is his lack of strikeouts against the lineup. Despite todays game being all about strike outs, walks, etc. There is still plenty of good that comes from putting the ball in play and i think that plays a factor tonight. Suarez isn't an ace but he has been okay thus far for the angels. Another price play here as i have the Angels as -143 tonight against a depleted Rangers team with a subpar Arm. be careful though Lyles has been pretty solid ROI this year. but again Im not going to shy away from a play bc of something like that.
Braves reasoning. I mentioned on my tweeter it might be time to buy the braves to win the east a few days back. The deadline proved that they are far from folding up and calling it a year despite the injury to Acuna. Im still interested in backing the Braves to win the East as i think its definitely possible but i havent pulled the trigger yet. Fried has been trending in the right direction and has very good numbers historically against the Cardinals. The K rate for Fried lately has been very solid as he has struck out 9,6,7 in his last 3 games. The addition of Soler, Duvall, and Pederson adds some power to the lineup tonight. The Cardinals are and have been tremendously overvalued by the market much of this year and i think we have the same tonight. Lester has poor underlying metrics and tonight seems like a good spot to get behind the braves at a cheap price. Note for DFS players Albies is 8 for 12 in his career vs lefties.
Royals f5 reasoning. I do not like Cease and never have. The White Sox have put together a pretty incredible roster thats flying under the radar somewhat as i wouldn't be surprised to see this team win it all. I don't have a ton of angles here but the price seems right to take a shot with the kid Bubic here who has put together a couple very decent starts! The Royals lineup and Bubic are plenty capable of having the lead after the 5th here.
Dont have a ton of time tonight keep it rolling! I crossed off the Marlins and the Nationals despite showing value on both tonight.
Reds -130 F5 (0.6u)
Reds -131 (0.5u)
Angels -127 (1u)
Braves -130 (1u)
Royals F5 +190 (0.7u)
Reds Reasoning: I wrote about Mahle last week in what was one of my biggest plays of the year so far. Tonight is a similar story. Mahle has had great success against the Twins hitters. We get a good price tonight solely bc of Kenta Maeda. I have backed him plenty in the past but the Reds have some solid numbers against him. I have this game lined closer to -147 for the Reds. We still have to deal with the Reds bullpen which is why i split the F5/Full game but the added guys should help some. One thing to be careful of is Mahle has not been near as good at home this year for whatever reason. Still its not enough to scare me away. Take the Reds up to -137ish.
Angels Reasoning. Jordan Lyles toes the rubber tonight and yet again i am showing some value against him. He usually has no trouble allowing runners, giving up runs, and has trouble missing bats. The Angels lineup tonight has some decent numbers against him but the main thing that jumps out is his lack of strikeouts against the lineup. Despite todays game being all about strike outs, walks, etc. There is still plenty of good that comes from putting the ball in play and i think that plays a factor tonight. Suarez isn't an ace but he has been okay thus far for the angels. Another price play here as i have the Angels as -143 tonight against a depleted Rangers team with a subpar Arm. be careful though Lyles has been pretty solid ROI this year. but again Im not going to shy away from a play bc of something like that.
Braves reasoning. I mentioned on my tweeter it might be time to buy the braves to win the east a few days back. The deadline proved that they are far from folding up and calling it a year despite the injury to Acuna. Im still interested in backing the Braves to win the East as i think its definitely possible but i havent pulled the trigger yet. Fried has been trending in the right direction and has very good numbers historically against the Cardinals. The K rate for Fried lately has been very solid as he has struck out 9,6,7 in his last 3 games. The addition of Soler, Duvall, and Pederson adds some power to the lineup tonight. The Cardinals are and have been tremendously overvalued by the market much of this year and i think we have the same tonight. Lester has poor underlying metrics and tonight seems like a good spot to get behind the braves at a cheap price. Note for DFS players Albies is 8 for 12 in his career vs lefties.
Royals f5 reasoning. I do not like Cease and never have. The White Sox have put together a pretty incredible roster thats flying under the radar somewhat as i wouldn't be surprised to see this team win it all. I don't have a ton of angles here but the price seems right to take a shot with the kid Bubic here who has put together a couple very decent starts! The Royals lineup and Bubic are plenty capable of having the lead after the 5th here.
Dont have a ton of time tonight keep it rolling! I crossed off the Marlins and the Nationals despite showing value on both tonight.
