Mr October’s 2021 Season Long Thread.

[Mr0ctober]

6/1:
Dodgers -1.5 +107 (0.7u)
Dodgers -0.5 F5 (-127) (0.5u)
Dodgers Team total over 4.5 (-115) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/4

Reds +122 (1u)
Mets +161 (1u)
Royals -132 (1u)
Tigers F5 +110 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/5 MLB:
Athletics -125 (1u)
Ms/Angels Under 4 F5 +100 (1u)
Mets F5 (-125) (1u)
Mets -104 (1u)

actually showing value on the Rockies but this is just me fading them. Getting As at a good price against a terrible team in a nutshell. If it loses it loses just tip my hat but not too much you will find me not betting against the Rockies at -130 or better. All that being feel free to layoff if tailing.

[Mr0ctober]

Also find it hilarious that I’m locked in on the Pirates every night trying to grind out wins due to my very large bet on the win total of over 58.5 wins. A lot of people will tell you not to lock up money for that long of a period. Which is a very valid point but I can also argue that taking a win total allows you to eliminate some variance and also help you from forcing plays on or against a team. If I’m borderline on a play - a lot of times I’ll just pass if I have the win total. still keeping an eye on the game bc of the win total. Just babbling at this point.

good luck all

[Mr0ctober]

6/8 MLB:
Astros -120 (1.2u)
Astros -120 F5 (1u)
Indians -160 (1u)
Braves +145 (1u)
Jays/White Sox f5 under 4 +105 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

5/31:
Phillies +100 (1u) -1u
Athletics -124 (1u) -1.24u
Yankees -120 (1u) -1.2u
Tigers first 5 +280 (0.6u) PUSH
Angels first 5 +120 (1u) -1u


Money line parlay:
Dodgers/white Sox (Rodon) +148 (1u) +1.48u

6/1:
Dodgers -1.5 +107 (0.7u) -0.7u
Dodgers -0.5 F5 (-127) (0.5u) -0.635u
Dodgers Team total over 4.5 (-115) (1u) -1.15u

6/4

Reds +122 (1u) +1.22u
Mets +161 (1u) Loss -1u
Royals -132 (1u) Win +1u
Tigers F5 +110 (1u) Loss -1u

6/5 MLB:
Athletics -125 (1u) Win +1u
Ms/Angels Under 4 F5 +100 (1u) Loss -1u
Mets F5 (-125) (1u) Win +1u
Mets -104 (1u) Win +1u

6/8 MLB:
Astros -120 (1.2u) +1.2u
Astros -120 F5 (1u) +1u
Indians -160 (1u) +1u
Braves +145 (1u) +1.45u
Jays/White Sox f5 under 4 +105 (1u) +1.05u

11-10 since may 31 +2.475u✅

MLB Season 102-95 +1.366u✅
Props season record 3-1 +1.271u✅

[Mr0ctober]

6/13:
Braves +115 (1u)
Mets +110 (1u)
Reds/Indians mlp +135 (1u)
Astros -142 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/13 add:
Cardinals +115 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/14 MLB:Twins -133 (1.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/15:

Reds -105 (1u)

Padres -1.5 (-155) (1u)

Indians -1.5 (+120) (1u)

Tigers/Royals under 4.5 f5 (1u) (-115)

Rays/White Sox over 4.5 f5 (+100) (1u)

Angels +116 (1u)

Braves -112 (1u)

NHL:

Islanders +176 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/17:
Braves -1.5 +100 (0.5u)
Braves first 5 -0.5 runs -128 (0.5u)
Braves team total over 5 runs -114 (0.7u)
Reds +163 (1u)
Yankees -105 (0.7u)
Yankees/jays over 10.5 (0.7u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/20:
Reds first 5 +115 (1u)
Tigers first 5 +125 (1u)
Rays -152 (1u)

Happy Father’s Day.

[Mr0ctober]

6/22:
Royals +231 (0.7u)
Marlins -111 (1u)
Indians +176 (0.7u)
Dbacks +125 (1u)
Dodgers -115 (1u)
Astros -183 (1.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

6/25
Jays/WSox moneyline parlay +104 (1u)
Yankees -123 (1u)
Braves -102 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

7/3:
Braves/Marlins under 5 (-120) first 5 (1u)
Tigers first 5 (-115) (1u)
Rays +105 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

7/4:

Cubs +107 (bookmaker)
Rangers +127 (betonline)
Red Sox +104 (bookmaker)

[Mr0ctober]

7/5

MLB:
Reds +107 (heritage) (risk 1u)
Braves -1.5 (-118) (DK) (to win 1u)
White Sox -123 (betonline) (to win 1u)

[Mr0ctober]

7/6:

Phillies -136 (to win 1u)
Yankees -160 (to win 2u)
Reds/Royals under 5 f5 +100 (1u)
White Sox -119 (to win 1u)
Rockies +120 (risk 1u)

[Mr0ctober]

7/7 MLB:
Jays -185 (1u)
Jays -1.5 runs (-130) (1u)
Yankees -105 (1u)

[KnuckleHeadz]

Pitching change in the yankee game

[Mr0ctober]

Yep there was but didn’t matter played it through Bookmaker where they only offer action these days.

[Mr0ctober]

Mid season accounting:

6/13:
Braves +115 (1u) Win +1.15u
Mets +110 (1u) Loss -1u
Reds/Indians mlp +135 (1u) Loss -1u
Astros -142 (1u) +1u
Cardinals +115 (1u) -1u

6/14 MLB:
Twins -133 (1.5u) -2u

6/15:
Reds -105 (1u) Win +1u
Padres -1.5 (-155) (1u) -1.55u
Indians -1.5 (+120) (1u) +1.2u
Tigers/Royals under 4.5 f5 (1u) (-115) Win +1u
Rays/White Sox over 4.5 f5 (+100) (1u) Loss -1u
Angels +116 (1u) Loss -1u
Braves -112 (1u) Loss -1.12u

6/17:
Braves -1.5 +100 (0.5u) Win +0.5u
Braves first 5 -0.5 runs -128 (0.5u) Win +0.5u
Braves team total over 5 runs -114 (0.7u) -0.8u
Reds +163 (1u) -1u
Yankees -105 (0.7u) Win +0.7u
Yankees/jays over 10.5 (0.7u) +0.7u

6/20:
Reds first 5 +115 (1u) Loss -1u
Tigers first 5 +125 (1u) Push
Rays -152 (1u) Loss -1.52u

6/22:
Royals +231 (0.7u) +1.62u
Marlins -111 (1u) -1.11u
Indians +176 (0.7u) -0.7u
Dbacks +125 (1u) -1u
Dodgers -115 (1u) -1.15u
Astros -183 (1.5u) +1.5u

6/25
Jays/WSox moneyline parlay +104 (1u) Loss -1u
Yankees -123 (1u) Loss -1.23u
Braves -102 (1u) Win +1.02u

7/3:
Braves/Marlins under 5 (-120) first 5 (1u) +1u
Tigers first 5 (-115) (1u) +1u
Rays +105 (1u) -1u

7/4:

Cubs +107 (bookmaker) -1u
Rangers +127 (betonline) -1u
Red Sox +104 (bookmaker) +1.04u

7/5 MLB:
Reds +107 (heritage) (risk 1u) Win +1.07u
Braves -1.5 (-118) (DK) (to win 1u) -1.18u
White Sox -123 (betonline) (to win 1u) -1.23u

7/6:

Phillies -136 (to win 1u) +1u
Yankees -160 (to win 2u) +2u
Reds/Royals under 5 f5 +100 (1u) Loss -1u
White Sox -119 (to win 1u) +1u
Rockies +120 (risk 1u) -1u

7/7 MLB:
Jays -185 (1u) Win +1u
Jays -1.5 runs (-130) (1u) +1u
Yankees -105 (1u) +1u

22-25 -4.59u since last accounting

MLB Season 124-120 -3.22u
Props season record 3-1 +1.271u✅

[Mr0ctober]

MID SEASON UPDATE on our season long future plays and the adjusted win totals:

This is what we played pre season
MLB 2021 Season Long Win Totals/Division Winners/Props ETC:

Win Totals:
Astros Over 86.5 (-112) (to win 5u) adjusted Over/Under now 93.5
Cubs under 79.5 Wins -112 (to win 1u) adjusted win total over/under 79.5
Orioles Under 64.5 Wins -115 (to win 4u) adjusted win total 58.5
Pirates Over 58.5 Wins +100 (to win 4u) adjusted win total 62.5
White Sox under 91.5 wins -112 (to win 1u) adjusted win total 93.5
Giants over 73.5 wins -110 (to win 1u) adjusted win total 92.5
Mets Over 89.5 Wins -130 (to win 1u) adjusted win total 88.5
Phillies Under 81.5 Wins -112 (to win 1u) adjusted win total 82.5
Red Sox over 80.5 -112 (to win 1u) adjusted win total 91.5
Rockies Under 40% or 64.5 wins (+102) (risk 4u) adjusted win total 68.5
Rangers Under 43.5% or 70.5 wins -130 (to win 3u) adjusted win total 66.5
Nationals Over 51.5% or 87.5 wins -108 (to win 4u) adjusted win total 78.5

To make playoffs:
Yes- Houston Astros -112 (to win 3u) adjusted price -1200

Divison Winners:
Houston Astros +150 AL West (risk 3u) adjusted price -550
Brewers +400 (risk 1u) adjusted price -390
Mets +155 (risk 1u) adjusted price -300
Royals +4800 rogue number with local (would suggest taking some at 40/1 or better) (risk 0.5u) adjusted price +13000

those prices are all via draft kings.

[Mr0ctober]

7/16 MLB

Reds -123 (1u)
Giants -124 (1u)
Indians +1.5 (-115) (1u)
Jays -1.5 (-142) (1u)
Dodgers -1.5 (-133) (1u)
Angels -137 (1u)

Money line parlay
Jays/Dodgers +114 (1u)

Favorites are to win 1u/dogs are risk 1u

[Mr0ctober]

Heads up pitching change for Athletics. Doesn’t change anything re playing the Indians +1.5 (-120) though. Best of luck tonight all! Let’s cash have a strong 2nd half and cash those win totals along the way!

[Mr0ctober]

7/16 MLB

Reds -123 (1u)❌
Giants -124 (1u)✅
Indians +1.5 (-115) (1u)✅
Jays -1.5 (-142) (1u)✅
Dodgers -1.5 (-133) (1u)✅
Angels -137 (1u)❌

Money line parlay
Jays/Dodgers +114 (1u)✅

5-2 night +2.54u✅

MLB Season 129-122 -0.68u
Props season record 3-1 +1.271u✅

[Mr0ctober]

July 27:
reds +150 (1u)
marlins -125 (1u)
Marlins f5 -145 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

July 27:
reds +150 (1u)✅
marlins -125 (1u)✅
Marlins f5 -145 (1u)✅

3-0 night. +3.5u✅

MLB Season 132-122 +2.82u✅
Props season record 3-1 +1.271u✅

[Mr0ctober]

July 28th:

Reds -107 (0.7u)
Reds First 5 -125 (1u)
Reds Team total over 4.5 (-125) (0.7u)
Astros -111 (1u)
Marlins +115 (1u)
Dbacks/Rangers Over 9 (+100) (1u)

Insight on the Reds. Mahle has been very impressive this far and I always have loved his stuff! He goes against Zach Davies who i have never liked much. Davies carries a 5.69 xERA suggesting he has been must worse than his already mediocre 4.3 ERA. Davies does not strike many guys out and can be walk prone. Combine that with Adrian Johnson (who is normally is tight strike zone) behind the dish there is potential for a big offensive output from the Reds offense in my opinion. Historically the likes of Votto, Winker, and Suarez have done significant damage to Davies in the past.

Insight on Astros pick. Kikuchi vs Odorizzi. I do not see anything too significant either way here. This is more of a fade the over .500 Mariners who my metrics suggest have been very lucky thus far this season. Astros the far better team and getting them against a team i am looking to fade down the stretch. Price lines up well here for my liking

Marlins insight. My capping style is a mix of what i see and watch and my numbers. This play is more of a numbers based play. Holloway for the marlins is due for some regression for sure and he could get blown up here. And Jorge Lopez for the Orioles is probably due for some positive regression. I normally wouldnt play this here but my numbers have this a coin flip and getting the Marlins at a decent price of +115 is enough for me to play against a rather atrocious Orioles team.

Dbacks/Rangers over insight. Mad Bum vs Jordan Lyles - should i say more?

[Mr0ctober]

adding 0.3u on the reds team total over 4.5 (-125). so that makes that a full unit.

[Mr0ctober]

Dear bookmakers

Please keep giving me lines of +150 vs Alozay and quality arms (Tyler mahle) -107 vs Davies the rest of the season!

thanks Mr. O

[Mr0ctober]

July 28th:

Reds -107 (0.7u)✅
Reds First 5 -125 (1u)✅
Reds Team total over 4.5 (-125) (1u)✅
Astros -111 (1u)✅
Marlins +115 (1u)❌
Dbacks/Rangers Over 9 (+100) (1u)❌

4-2 night +1.7u✅

MLB Season 136-124 +4.52u✅
Props season record 3-1 +1.271u✅

[Mr0ctober]

8/2:
Nationals +105 (1u)
Giants -1.5 runs (-128) (0.7u)
Giants -201 (1u)

1) Nationals reasoning: this game lines up perfectly in terms of what I look for. I’m backing a guy (Josiah gray) that I like here that the market doesn’t know much about and fading a guy (Suarez) that has been extremely lucky. I am not saying Suarez is a bad player I’m just saying he’s far outperformed thus far. His BABIP is a measly .188 and his Left on base percentage is 86%. Those numbers are unsustainable no matter who you are. Suarez xFip is 3.36 which is still very good but compared to his era of 1.12 you can see he has had some serious luck. I just say all that to express why I see regression coming. Josiah Gray on the other hand will he an extremely exciting player to watch going forward. The nationals claim they will take the training wheels off but is won’t believe that until I see it. After all they wouldn’t even take the training wheels off Strasburg in the midst of a big playoff run chance a few years back. Gray has a start under his belt and I expect him to be a little more comfortable this time. He’s a guy I will be looking to back anytime he’s an underdog to be quite honest. He’s succeeded at every level he’s played at and expect no different here. He’s struggled with command in the bigs so far but really doesn’t have a ton of control issues at the other levels so I’m expecting the more comfortable he gets the better his command will get. He will also be out of the bright lights of LA so that could help as well. Nationals roster is somewhat depleted but the Phillies are plenty vulnerable in this spot. I’ll take my chances with a short underdog.

giants reasoning: somewhat on the same line of thinking here. Desclafani has put together a very impressive season and his underlying metrics suggest he is pitching as well as his numbers. Disco for the Giants has also been remarkable numbers against the Dbacks hitters. (.117 average) couple that with addition of Kris Bryant I think we have a really good spot here. Yes the Dbacks have been a far better team at home but they are still a very poor baseball team. Widener will start on the mound and he carries a 4+ era but his metrics suggest he’s closer to a 5. Couple that with a bad bullpen I think we have recipe for a disaster here tonight. The Giants still seem somewhat undervalued in the market which seems crazy given the record. I don’t love taking big favorites but im seeing plenty of value on the -200 and -1.5 run line here.

[Mr0ctober]

Recap:
8/2:
Nationals +105 (1u)❌
Giants -1.5 runs (-128) (0.7u)✅
Giants -201 (1u)✅

2-1 night +0.7u✅


MLB Season 138-125 +5.22u✅
Props season record 3-1 +1.271u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Card and write ups in a bit