Mr October’s 2021 Season Long Thread.

[Mr0ctober]

4/10 MLB Card:
Brewers +104 (0.7u)
Brewers F5 +104 (DraftKings) (0.7u)
Braves -135 (1u)
Mariners +175 (0.7u)
Rangers F5 +0.5 runs -110 (1u)
Pirates +140 (0.5u)
Tigers/Indians under 4.5 F5 (+112) (1u)

#draftkings #fanduel #MLBPicks #gamblingtwitter #sportsbettingadvice #circa

[Mr0ctober]

4/11:
Phillies/Braves over 9 (-117) [draftkings](1u)

Best of luck.

#DraftKings #fanduel #betmgm #bookmaker #sportsbetting #GamblingTwiitter #baseball #MLBPicks #Braves #Phillies

[Mr0ctober]

4/10 MLB Card:
Brewers +104 (0.7u)✅ +0.728u
Brewers F5 +104 (DraftKings) (0.7u)✅ +0.728u
Braves -135 (1u)✅ +1u
Mariners +175 (0.7u)✅ +1.225u
Rangers F5 +0.5 runs -110 (1u)✅ +1u
Pirates +140 (0.5u)✅ +0.7u
Tigers/Indians under 4.5 F5 (+112) (1u)❌ -1u

4/11:
Phillies/Braves over 9 (-117) [draftkings](1u)✅ +1u

6-1 weekend! +5.381u✅✅✅


mets live play -1.55u❌

2021 MLB Record: 21-15 +6.276u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/12 MLB
Marlins/ATL under 4.5 f5 (-125) (0.8u)
Marlins +0.5 runs F5 (-130) (1u)
Nationals +131 (1u)
Reds +101 (1u)
Orioles -120 (1u)
Rangers +190 (0.5u)
Indians +118 (1u)
Indians/WSox under 4.5 f5 (-115) (1u)
Parlay: Astros/Yankees+119 (1u)
Athletics -125 (1u)

Unusually large card. Hope it goes well. Good luck

[Mr0ctober]

4/13

Dodgers -1.5 (-150) (1u)
Indians/WSox under 3.5 F5 (-133) (1u)
Reds/giants under 3.5 F5 +105 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/14
Braves -1.5 (-118) (0.8u)
Braves/Dodgers parlay (-111) (0.8u)
Tribe/white Sox under 4 F5 (-125) (0.8u)
#MLB #draftkings #fanduel #BarstoolSportsbook #penn #circa #vegas #gamblingtwitter

[Mr0ctober]

4/15:

Dodgers -260 (1u)
Dodgers team total over 4.5 (-115) (0.7u)

(Tread carefully. No seager or Betts. But this is more about gomber and the Rockies pen)

Tigers/As under 4.5 F5 (-120) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/16
braves +104 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

accounting
4/12 MLB
Marlins/ATL under 4.5 f5 (-125) (0.8u)✅
Marlins +0.5 runs F5 (-130) (1u)❌
Nationals +131 (1u)✅
Reds +101 (1u)✅
Orioles -120 (1u) POSTPONED
Rangers +190 (0.5u)❌
Indians +118 (1u)❌
Indians/WSox under 4.5 f5 (-115) (1u)❌
Parlay: Astros/Yankees+119 (1u)❌
Athletics -125 (1u)✅
4-5 -0.83u❌

4/13
Dodgers -1.5 (-150) (1u)✅
Indians/WSox under 3.5 F5 (-133) (1u)✅
Reds/giants under 3.5 F5 +105 (1u)❌
2-1 +1u✅

4/14
Braves -1.5 (-118) (0.8u)❌ -0.944
Braves/Dodgers parlay (-111) (0.8u)❌-0.888
Tribe/white Sox under 4 F5 (-125) (0.8u)❌ -1u
0-3 -2.832❌

4/15
Dodgers -260 (1u)✅
Dodgers team total over 4.5 (-115) (0.7u)✅
Tigers/As under 4.5 F5 (-120) (1u)✅
3-0 +2.7u✅

4/16
braves +104 (1u)✅
1-0 +1.04u✅

10-9 week +1.078✅

2021 MLB Record: 31-24 +7.354u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/17 MLB Card:

Indians/Reds under 4.5 F5 (-115) (1u)

Marlins -128 (1u)

Astros -120 (1u)

Mets -1.5 (-140) (1u)

yes im aware Degrom never gets run support.

[Mr0ctober]

4/17 Recap

Indians/Reds under 4.5 F5 (-115) (1u)✅
Marlins -128 (1u)✅
Astros -120 (1u)✅
Mets -1.5 (-140) (1u)❌

3-1 Saturday +1.6u✅


MLB Season 34-25 +8.954u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Bases 4/19:
Dodgers -195 (1u)
Brewers/Pads under 3.5 F5 (-118) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

RECAP:

Bases 4/19:
Dodgers -195 (1u)❌ -1.95u
Brewers/Pads under 3.5 F5 (-118) (1u)✅+1u
1-1 -0.95u

MLB Season 35-26 +8.004u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/20 MLB Card:


Braves +112 (1u)
Brewers -105 (1u)
Marlins -113 (1u)
Astros -114 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/21 Marlins -0.5 runs first 5 -115 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/21 add:Astros -137 (to win 0.7u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/21 add:Nationals -157 (0.7u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/22

DODGERS -165 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/24 MLB
Athletics -159 (1u)
Phillies -1.5 (-114) (1u)
Phillies over 5.5 runs (-122) (0.5u)
Braves -1.5 +108 (1u)
Braves over 4.5 runs (-140) (0.5u)

hate eating big favorites like this but showing value and like all the matchups a lot. Best of luck as always.

[Mr0ctober]

Recap:

4/20 MLB Card:
Braves +112 (1u) Loss -1u
Brewers -105 (1u) Win +1u
Marlins -113 (1u) Loss -1.13u
Astros -114 (1u) Loss -1.14u

4/21
Marlins -0.5 runs first 5 -115 (1u) Win +1u
Astros -137 (to win 0.7u) Loss -0.959u
Nationals -157 (0.7u) Win +0.7u


4/22
DODGERS -165 (1u) Loss -1.65u

4/24 MLB
Athletics -159 (1u) Win. +1u
Phillies -1.5 (-114) (1u) Win +1u
Phillies over 5.5 runs (-122) (0.5u) Win +0.5u
Braves -1.5 +108 (1u) Postponed
Braves over 4.5 runs (-140) (0.5u) Postponed

5-5 week -0.679u

MLB Season 40-31 +7.325u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/25 Card
Brewers -123 (1u)
Phillies +100 (1u)
Angels/Stros Under 4.5 f5 -115 (1u)
Reds +120 (1u)
Twins -1 run (-148) (1u)

Good luck all

[Mr0ctober]

4/26
angels -160 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/25 Card
Brewers -123 (1u)✅
Phillies +100 (1u)❌
Angels/Stros Under 4.5 f5 -115 (1u)✅
Reds +120 (1u)❌
Twins -1 run (-148) (1u)❌ -1.48u

4/26
angels -160 (1u)✅

3-3 last couple days -0.48u❌

MLB Season 44-34 +6.845u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Some random thoughts about today’s games.

1). Civale for the Indians has been quite impressive, like Early season Cy Young consideration. No if the season ended today he wouldn’t win but you get the point he’s been very solid. Tonight he sees the slumping twins and faces off vs Maeda. Maeda has been the opposite as his numbers have been awful and his advanced numbers suggest that it he hasn’t been unlucky.. he’s been just bad in the young season. However I’m not going to let a few starts change my mind on a guy that I have watched for some time now.. think this is a game to look under. The Indians offense isn’t potent by any means although it is coming off a couple nice games. But think this is more of a get right spot for Maeda tonight. I don’t have a feeling on the side but seeing a under 4.5 first 5 or a full game under of 8.5 is definitely worth a look in my opinion.

2) Royals vs Pirates. Two teams I was much higher on than the market preseason. Both have played pretty well. The Pirates have been very competitive even after the early season exit of Kebryan Hayes to the DL. Jakob Junis goes tonight for the Royals and he has been very impressive thus far.. his season stats are very good and his advanced numbers suggest he’s even been better than those. Junis has kind of been an under the radar arm I’ve been tracking for what seems like a few years now. His numbers or talent have never been a jump off the page type but he is good enough to keep his team in games and there is something to be said for that. I’m seeing the Royals at +106 at betonline and some other shops. Think that’s right for a play although I still would like to see the lineup before pulling the trigger so I’ll wait for now.

3). Nationals vs Jays. Tonight we get Scherzer vs a bullpen game. Scherzer is coming off an impressive outing. And is a short favorite at about -114 at the moment. I lean Nationals here. A good friend of mine likes the other side here and I always take his input seriously. He likes the big advantage of this Jays lineup vs the bullpen. My argument to that is Scherzer usually can get deep into the games taking that advantage away. I’m still waiting on the lineups but don’t be surprised if you see the nationals on my card here after bit.

4)Phillies at Cardinals. If you have followed me through the years we have made some good money by fading Carlos Martinez. Anytime I see him on the mound I quickly check the price and opposing pitcher/team. Today might be just what we are looking for in terms of fading Martinez again. Martinez lines up as a slight favorite vs Eflin today. Martinez coming off a good duel vs Scherzer providing us with a little better price I think. Eflin is a guy I’ve had my eyes on as he has really done a nice job of limiting hard hit baseballs.. his Ks per 9 is very low in today’s game this year so far at 6.5ish. Which might be alarming to a lot of fans/bettors but the thing to note is he has completely changed his plan of attack the last couple years. Eflin has gone from a fastball/slider guy. To a completely renewed sinker, slider, change up guy. Eflins underlying metrics suggest he hasn’t been as good as his actual numbers this year but it’s not a day and night difference. Look to back the Phillies tonight at -105 or better.

5) Giants/Rockies. I’ll be on the Giants tonight. Aaron Sanchez and the giants against Gonzales and the Rockies? Do I need to even go into detail. I have this game lined at what should be over -200 for the giants. So anything -180 of below I suggest backing Johnny Miller’s crew.

6) last one. Dodgers/Reds. I don’t love laying a -1.5 with a home team but the situations seems right. Cincy bullpen really struggling here lately and to be quite frank I don’t think Jeff Hoffman is anywhere close to an average major league pitcher.. he’s been lucky this year and the Dodgers have destroyed bad righties this year. Give me Buehler in a bounce back game for this Dodger outfit.. would also glance at his Over under Strikeouts. I’ll try to start posting more props here and there as well.

As always any questions or comments feel free to jump in. Back with the card after bit good luck all enjoy the day!

[midnighthour91]

Some random thoughts about today’s games.

1). Civale for the Indians has been quite impressive, like Early season Cy Young consideration. No if the season ended today he wouldn’t win but you get the point he’s been very solid. Tonight he sees the slumping twins and faces off vs Maeda. Maeda has been the opposite as his numbers have been awful and his advanced numbers suggest that it he hasn’t been unlucky.. he’s been just bad in the young season. However I’m not going to let a few starts change my mind on a guy that I have watched for some time now.. think this is a game to look under. The Indians offense isn’t potent by any means although it is coming off a couple nice games. But think this is more of a get right spot for Maeda tonight. I don’t have a feeling on the side but seeing a under 4.5 first 5 or a full game under of 8.5 is definitely worth a look in my opinion.

2) Royals vs Pirates. Two teams I was much higher on than the market preseason. Both have played pretty well. The Pirates have been very competitive even after the early season exit of Kebryan Hayes to the DL. Jakob Junis goes tonight for the Royals and he has been very impressive thus far.. his season stats are very good and his advanced numbers suggest he’s even been better than those. Junis has kind of been an under the radar arm I’ve been tracking for what seems like a few years now. His numbers or talent have never been a jump off the page type but he is good enough to keep his team in games and there is something to be said for that. I’m seeing the Royals at +106 at betonline and some other shops. Think that’s right for a play although I still would like to see the lineup before pulling the trigger so I’ll wait for now.

3). Nationals vs Jays. Tonight we get Scherzer vs a bullpen game. Scherzer is coming off an impressive outing. And is a short favorite at about -114 at the moment. I lean Nationals here. A good friend of mine likes the other side here and I always take his input seriously. He likes the big advantage of this Jays lineup vs the bullpen. My argument to that is Scherzer usually can get deep into the games taking that advantage away. I’m still waiting on the lineups but don’t be surprised if you see the nationals on my card here after bit.

4)Phillies at Cardinals. If you have followed me through the years we have made some good money by fading Carlos Martinez. Anytime I see him on the mound I quickly check the price and opposing pitcher/team. Today might be just what we are looking for in terms of fading Martinez again. Martinez lines up as a slight favorite vs Eflin today. Martinez coming off a good duel vs Scherzer providing us with a little better price I think. Eflin is a guy I’ve had my eyes on as he has really done a nice job of limiting hard hit baseballs.. his Ks per 9 is very low in today’s game this year so far at 6.5ish. Which might be alarming to a lot of fans/bettors but the thing to note is he has completely changed his plan of attack the last couple years. Eflin has gone from a fastball/slider guy. To a completely renewed sinker, slider, change up guy. Eflins underlying metrics suggest he hasn’t been as good as his actual numbers this year but it’s not a day and night difference. Look to back the Phillies tonight at -105 or better.

5) Giants/Rockies. I’ll be on the Giants tonight. Aaron Sanchez and the giants against Gonzales and the Rockies? Do I need to even go into detail. I have this game lined at what should be over -200 for the giants. So anything -180 of below I suggest backing Johnny Miller’s crew.

6) last one. Dodgers/Reds. I don’t love laying a -1.5 with a home team but the situations seems right. Cincy bullpen really struggling here lately and to be quite frank I don’t think Jeff Hoffman is anywhere close to an average major league pitcher.. he’s been lucky this year and the Dodgers have destroyed bad righties this year. Give me Buehler in a bounce back game for this Dodger outfit.. would also glance at his Over under Strikeouts. I’ll try to start posting more props here and there as well.

As always any questions or comments feel free to jump in. Back with the card after bit good luck all enjoy the day!

Just a note on the Twins/Indians write up. The under could very well hit, but the underlying numbers suggest Civale hasn't been quite as dominant as his stats appear in the early season and could be due for some regression sooner than later. His ERA is in the low 2.00s but FIP is over 4.00

[Mr0ctober]

I’ll be honest I breezed over his advanced numbers I’ve watched his starts and didn’t think his advanced numbers would be that much worse than his actual numbers.. good catch appreciate it. That might take me off the under!

[Maizey]

Another note on the Tribe game. It’s the first warm day in quite some time in Cleveland, with winds blowing out, so very friendly hitter conditions.

[Mr0ctober]

Another note on the Tribe game. It’s the first warm day in quite some time in Cleveland, with winds blowing out, so very friendly hitter conditions.

Solid info! This is valuable type of info. Love this! Won’t be hitting the under here. Good luck guys!

[Mr0ctober]

4/27:
Royals +103 (0.8u)
Yankees/Orioles over 9.5 (-115) (1u)
Nationals -116 (0.5u)
Nationals -140 F5 (0.5u)
Rays -114 (1u)
Dodgers -1.5 runs (-114) (0.6u)
Dodgers -0.5 runs F5 (-155) (0.5u)
Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs (-115) (0.5u)

props:
Phillies/Cards run in first inning -Yes -110 (0.5u)
Buehler over 6.5 Ks (-143) (0.5u)
Buehler over 7.5ks +127 (0.3u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/27 add:Giants -165 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/27:
Royals +103 (0.8u)❌ -0.8u
Yankees/Orioles over 9.5 (-115) (1u)❌ -1.15u
Nationals -116 (0.5u) ❌-0.58u
Nationals -140 F5 (0.5u) -0.7u❌
Rays -114 (1u)✅ +1u
Dodgers -1.5 runs (-114) (0.6u)❌ -0.684
Dodgers -0.5 runs F5 (-155) (0.5u) -0.775❌
Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs (-115) (0.5u)✅ +0.5u
Giants -165 (1u)❌ -1.65u

props:
Phillies/Cards run in first inning -Yes -110 (0.5u)✅ +0.5u
Buehler over 6.5 Ks (-143) (0.5u)✅ +0.5u
Buehler over 7.5ks +127 (0.3u)✅ +0.381u

1-5 night sides and totals -4.839U❌

MLB Season 45-39 +2.006u✅

Props season record 2-0 +1.381u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/28 early game:
reds +188 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/28:Royals -120 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Full card 4/28:

Reds +188 (0.5u)

Royals -120 (1u)

Braves -128 (1u)

Padres -145 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

RECAP card 4/28:

Reds +188 (0.5u)

Royals -120 (1u)

Braves -128 (1u)

Padres -145 (1u)

3-1 night +2.5u

MLB Season 48-40 +4.506u✅

Props season record 2-0 +1.381u✅